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Gary,
-I love the snow & the cold crisp feel to the air.
-I don't like getting everyone ready to go outside...all the hassle of coats, gloves, hats, etc
-I think the LRC is a term coined to explain the theory of the weather cycling all year long...the weather follows a cycle every few days, yes, I believe in this cycle...there's lots of proof to show us there is a cycle
-when I hear a storm is coming I get excited thinking maybe, one time this might be the type of storm I remember from my childhood & the fun I had & know my kids will get to have if we get enough snow, I get worried when there is ice involved since that's much more of a pain than just snow, then I get disappointed when everyone cracks it up to be "the big one" & it amounts to piddly amounts
-what I want to add...I always want to smile when everyone rushes around getting milk before a storm.  Don't you know the milk companies just love winter storms...:)

btw...I don't know how to do a video clip so I just answered the questions.

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Thank you for participating.  Hopefully a few of you can figure out how to send the video.

Gary

Im doin' it right now, but its just a bunch of awsome snow pics. My nephew's cat has stomach cancer, the cat was a wedding gift for my cousin. SO SAD, there putting Monnan to sleep tomarrow. . . . :(

I can't upload for sum reason Widnows Movie Maker, is this a valid entry? How do I fix it?

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I am not sure.  Any problems that come up will have to be checked on Tuesday.

Good luck.

 

Gary

Gary,

Just wanted to drop a note and say to all that Kansas City is very fortunate to have such a great weather team serving them.  As a recent transplant from KC to Colorado Springs, I miss being able to get such accurate forecasts, great weather information and a wonderful forum to blog about the weather.  There is nothing out here for local TV weather forecasting that even comes close to the quality weather program and team on KSHB.  The blog helps me keep in touch with what is going on in KC.  We will be back in KC when the winter weather forecast comes out and am looking forward to watching.  

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Thank you so much!  We work very hard every day to maintain what you expect from us.

We are working on the winter forecast tonight. It is very, very complex.

Gary

Good Evening Gary,

Fairly nice fall day here in Kansas City. Got up to 45° here in KCK today, and currently sitting at 39°. Rainfall today across the area has not been very impressive at all, only received .05 here at the house so far, and radar looks like it is fairly quiet to the SSE of here. Looking forward to hopefully some more rainfall overnight! Gary, I forgot to ask Jeremy yesterday like he reminded me to on Saturday night, but I am going pheasant hunting on Saturday up in Marysville, Kansas. Any idea on what the weather is looking like around that time?

Have a good night everyone,


Bryan

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Bryan,

Bundle up Saturday night!

Gary

It just won't upload, I'll just send it to one of you via e-mail.

Gary, I won't have time to put together a video, but here are my answers:
a)  What is it that you like about winter?  -- The air is clearer.  You can ice skate without paying for it. It's just beautiful to see the fresh snowfall and the bird and animal footprints in it.  Where there's a lot of snow, it helps the farmers in the spring, reducing droughts.
What do you dislike about winter?  -- people who think SUVs (both the drivers and those not in them) can stop on a dime.  Plows which use all salt, creating ice and unsafe road conditions.  I also tired of the plows taking forever to hit side roads and leaving paths as small as possible.  Rather than use real plows, small pickup trucks with small blades are used and they're not the way to clear roads.
The LRC.....do you believe in it?  What do you think it is?  Yes.  It's the weather pattern that sets up in October/November and ends in summer.  It's a pattern of highs, lows, and precip and is cyclical.  
Let's say a winter storm is coming in....do you get excited, concerned, what do you think about as a storm approaches.   -- I get pretty excited.  I'd love to see a two-foot snowstorm here in Kansas City.  

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Thanks, and maybe this is the winter of that big snowstorm.  I am not sure yet.

Gary

Notes,

I did not intentionally sidestep your request, as I have been busy.  I will be happy to take a run at your questions, as I have several thoughts.  This blog is not the time as it seems Gary is looking for something specific from the bloggers, but ask it again in the next blog, one down the road, or outside the blog.

I think you will be interested in my response.

Scott,

Your November 19th storm is "back" on the 0Z run of the GFS tonight.....

WOW!!!  I just drove down to Wichita and arrived just prior to a bow echo coming through town.  Current temperature is about 45 degrees with very frequent lightning.  There was enough pea sized hail to completely cover the ground!  I have NEVER seen a hail storm quite like this...unbelievable!

Yeah..while I initially went for the 18-20th, a few days ago, I thought maybe the pattern was speeding up a bit, and thought maybe around the 16th.

At this point, i am still looking for something specific from this storm, but will be honest, I am struggling a bit with how the GFS has been representing this timeframe.  I am seeing some of the features I expect, but this far out..the GFS is whiffing in my opinion.

I will not be claiming any victory should it hit on the 19th. [short of a first prize ring- should it hit at the right time of day, as that is the day I picked for the snowflake contest]  That was my gut feel based on earlier analysis, but after further review, I did change the date.  At this point, saying a storm could happen in late Autumn between the 16-20th of November really provides little value.  Statistically and based on climate, that is a 50/50 prop which provides zero accuracy beyond chance.  While I know what I was looking for..having not communicated my thoughts or visual queues..coming up with something now would be a bit late.

This has happened before...LOL...and critics love to use these types of examples as how the cycle missed, didn't exist, or failed to prove out.  What is ignored is that the pattern was just fine..its was the human interpretation that missed.  

;-)

Unfortunately, being an MSNTV user (set top box) I'd have no way of sending a video.  But I'll do as a few others and give my responses in text to the questions.

[What is it that you like about winter?]  It's just MUCH easier for me to function in the winter months.  When it's hot and humid it takes me FOREVER to cool down because even in cool places it's still humid.  I also just love winter precip.

[What do you dislike about winter?]  When there's a strong wind because combined with the cold those winds can be FIERCE!

[The LRC.....do you believe in it?] I'd have to say, "Yes", because it proved to be true last year.  I was telling people during the winter, "See how we have snow every few days?  If the LRC is true, we'll have rain and storms in the spring/summer every few days."  Guess what?  That's exactly what happened!

[What do you think it is?]  A cycle in the weather patterns that sets up somewhere between September and November and cycles all the way through the following summer.  Cycles seem to range from 40-60 days.

[Let's say a winter storm is coming in....do you get excited, concerned, what do you think about as a storm approaches.]  When a storm approaches, I WANT THE BULLSEYE!  LOL  When I hear 2 to 4 inches, I want the 4 inches!  I keep tabs on the weather via TV and the internet and when it's snowing I LOVE to have my blinds WIDE open.

[Anything else that you want to add.]  Thanks for being such a great weather team.  Not only do you strive to make your forecasts as accurate as possible but you don't oversensationalize things and if storms won't be as bad as others try to scare you with, you'll tell us.  You guys also aren't afraid to say about a storm a few days away that you're simply not sure about things.  I appreciate honesty above all.

But yes, Adam..it is amazing how often I praise and curse the GFS in the same day...LOL

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_228l.gif

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20081007.html

Quite a thunderstorm in Paola around 2am this morning.  Lots of lightening and thunder, not sure about any hail as I chose to stay under the covers.  We did get some rain (darn it) about .62" enough to make everything messy out.  Not a bad walk for Windy and I at 5:00 this morning, 44 degrees, 10 mph wind, she doesn't like to walk through the puddles though.  I sure like seeing the forecast a bit clearer for the week, sunshine tomorrow should help everyone's moods at work.  I only had 3 student's at school yesterday (I normally have 7) cold and flu season seems to be hitting a bit early this year for us.  I always dread winter as attendance goes down because of the weather and colds.  Some of my students come quite a distance for school and that can be treacherous for transporting children in wheelchairs.  I hope we get to see some sun today, at least the temperatures should be up.  Have a great day everyone!
--deb

We had a good round of lightning, thunder and rain early this morning in Mission. Unfortunately it did not make for a good night's sleep!

Answer these questions:
What is it that you like about winter?
  cold, cloudy, snowy days that I can spend at home.
What do you dislike about winter?
  driving on the snow with crazy SUV drivers
The LRC.....do you believe in it?  What do you think it is?
   I think the only thing the LRC can tell you is that storm will be in the area.  It appears to me that quite often the storms never travels over the same spot  therefore you can never determine what kind of precip the storm will drop until it gets to be about 24-36 hours prior to it hitting the area which in my opinion doesn't really help out your forecasting skills because to me it's no different than trying to forecast from models 24-36 hours out.  I think there needs to be several more years of research on this in order for it to really benefit you.  

Let's say a winter storm is coming in....do you get excited, concerned, what do you think about as a storm approaches.
 I usually get excited, however, I always try to keep the excitement to a minimum because I know how easy it is for the models to be off several hundred miles and we could end up with little to no snow.

Anything else that you want to add.
  No
We will need this by the weekend.  And, we may or may not include them in the special segment, depending on time.  I may still put your thoughts and video on-line anyway.