Watch the WINTER FORECAST Monday night, November 24th!
Good morning bloggers,
We will talk about the developing weather pattern, the cold front heading our way, and whether or not it is going to become sunny this afternoon. Let's start with today.
I was walking Breezy and Stormy around 5:30 this morning and we saw the nearly full moon sneaking out from behind the clouds. This is a good indication that the sun will make its return by this afternoon. The clearing line should pass the state line by noon today. So, we are sticking with our forecast high of 52 degrees.
Now, onto the cold front approaching. Look below at the forecast surface map for Friday morning:
A cold front will be moving through Friday morning. There is a disturbance aloft that will also be approaching Friday morning and depending on how it evolves we could see some precipitation on Friday. Surface cold air will be lacking, so despite the thickness dropping down to critical snow criteria snowflakes may still hold off for now. It is something to pay close attention to however. I circled the 540 thickness indicator above. Thickness is directly related to the temperature of a layer. 540 means 5,400 meters is the distance between the 1,000 mb level (near the surface) and the 500 mb level (around 18,000 feet up). Kansas City is near the 546 line (the first dotted red line). This means that the layer between 1,000 mb and 500 mb is 5,460 meters thick, and warmer than the area to our northwest. We consider the 540 line as the 50% chance that it is cold enough to snow near the surface (below 1,000 feet). So, watch this first blue dotted line on the surface maps as storm systems move by as one of your forecasting tools. But, just because we have a 540 thickness or lower doesn't mean it will snow. We have to be able to generate precipitation first. We will be monitoring this situation and describing it on our weathercasts today and tonight on NBC Action News.
Upper level energy is strengthening/developing over the northeast Gulf of Alaska, southwestern Canada, and the Pacific northwest states. A longwave trough will be forming east of Kansas City later this week and this will allow a strong cold front to move through. A longwave trough is a broad big feature that moves slowly. Shortwave troughs are fast moving upper level storms that carve out the bigger and broader longwaves. The LRC, my weather pattern theory, describes the mean longwave troughs and ridges that become established every fall and tend to repeat over and over again for months to come. I call these mean troughs "long term" longwave troughs. During the past few weeks we have experienced the development of a unique weather pattern of these troughs and ridges that will likely be the determining factor on how we experience winter this year. Where are these mean troughs and ridges? A few have dug into the western states. Many have dug into the central states, and a few in the east. The weather pattern is obviously very complex and it is something we are still trying to figure out and pin down before our winter forecast airs on November 24th. I do have a first impression, but I am being very careful and waiting, analyzing, researching, and working on the best way to describe this weather pattern. So, be patient. The winter forecast is just days away (one week from Monday night).
Have a fantastic day! Is anyone going to see Coldplay Thursday night? I may be able to go, depending on breaking news. I would do the weather live from the Sprint Center, outside if everything lines up.
Gary