NBC Action Communities

Gary:
Good Breezy morning to you sir!!! It always amazes me what a SW wind can do to our temperatures here-it shouldn’t but it just always does!!! You can smell that air this morning-gotta love our weather-it can change on a dime!!!

As has been the case with the event I have tonight outside, I am still focused on this front over the next 24  hours. So, here goes a few random observations-still out of practice, but here goes nothing!!!

1. It appears on satellite that we have quite a bit of cloud cover diving down out of Nebraska this morning. Most of these will probably really dissipate before they get here, but there appears to be a chance that we may have some cloudy periods throughout the day.

2. On the 11Z surface charts, I think the wind shift line is currently in the Nebraska Panhandle and beginning to move South East. It also appears that the Upper Level Low in Canada (I believe this is the one responsible for beginning the cold air push-I think??) is currently right even with us longitudinally which is about 100 miles further east than the 6Z GFS forecasted this morning.

3. I think the 6Z has the wind shift line coming through at around 0Z tonight or a few hours later and now has a bit of drizzle/lite rain forecasted to pop when it comes through (can drizzle pop?? LOL)

4. I am probably all wet here and way off base, but I think today may a little more interesting than what the models have been showing the past 24 hours. By interesting I mean we may have a little bit cloudier sky today maybe some lite rain, and for me more importantly, the wind shift line may make it through here this evening sometime, which would then mean by about 2 A.M. the NW winds will really kick in which would give me some very cranky students!!!

I know-so much stuff about a dry cold front that may produce a little drizzle and give some just below normal temperatures and about 12 hours of wind from the SW then the NW. Way too much writing that in the end is probably such a bad analysis that it should go into the recycle bin of the computer!! LOL However, with the sleep outside tonight this has really caught my attention and furthermore, I figured it was a good event to get my feet wet again and try to get back into the game!!!

Have a great day-I will for sure be following the progression of the front-should be interesting and sure beats sunny calm and 65 for this time of year-we have May-September to have sunny hot and calm winds!!!! Thanks for reading-if we do indeed have some interesting weather tonight while we are outside, I will try to get a picture or two and send it to you!! As always, thanks for reading!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

Good luck tonight.  How many kids this year?  There may be a wind shift a bit to the west, but a vigorous upper level storm begins rapidly developing as it moves past us Friday.  This disturbance will bring the true cold front through during the morning on Friday. It could rain on you guys early in the morning as this all develops.

Gary


P.S.: I didn't get Get Smarted this morning LOL!!!

Gary,  Great blog entry.  I have been away from KC, working in DC for about 6 weeks.  The weather has been great out here, but I have longed for some snow!  I am flying back to KC this evening and loving the thought of snow by the weekend.  If it does materialize, it will make for a great opening day to the hunting season.

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Welcome back!  We haven't even had a chance of a snowflake yet.  So, let's see what happens.

Have a safe trip.

Gary

Nice red sunrise due to the clouds.  I hope they burn off soon, I would really like to see 63 to 65.  But these clouds have me wondering, will they burn off in time or will have these clouds with some breaks and only see 55 to 58 today?  So the weather plot thickens.  All of the snow lovers have their fingers crossed.  Better stay up late.  My gut instinct tells me if snow flies it will be late, very light and zero chance of an accumulation.

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First of all there is no chance of snow tonight.  Zero!  The only chance would be tomorrow afternoon if the storm intensifys much faster than the models are saying, so that chance is 5%.  The better chance is in the snow showers on Saturday.  And, that chance is around 30%.

Today, it warms up dramatically even with the clouds. It is a forced warming today so I expect our 62 degree high to easily be reached.

Have a fantastic day!

Gary

I have what some may view as a stupid question but I am gonna risk it by asking anyways. One feature I have noticed during the set up faze of the LRC is a lot of wind. Does this mean this LRC pattern may produce a lot of that or not?? The moon was sooo bright and beautiful....can not wait until we experience that with a blanket of snow too. Ahhhhh!!!!! Have a great day.
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

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Monica,

Maybe the next full moon will be lighting up the snow?  We will see.  And, that's a good question.  We are still figuring out what this weather pattern means and exactly where the storm systems will be intensifying most often.  But, the trend is for a lot of wind with this pattern.  This is a good question to ask, in case I don't address it in the winter forecast coming soon.

Gary

Gary,

I know you can't say anything yet...but this current weather pattern with such extremes, really has me excited and curious, in how the new LRC will play out for this winter and next spring and summer? Can't wait for the 24th!!!!

Jeff

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Jeff,

Thanks. We still have a lot of work to do.  This weather pattern is very complex.

Gary

This may be a really stupid question, but what happened to the maps?  The last two days I have not been able to view the maps, there is just nothing there. I have not changed any settings on my computer that I know of but I can't see the maps in the blog anymore.  Ideas?

Yesterday the clouds lost out very late in the game here in St. Joe, the sun did begin breaking through the clouds at around 4 p.m. so it was down to the line!!
Now it is I would say partly cloudy with clumps of high and mid-level clouds streaming through from the northwest, something of note from the 6Z GFS is the cut-off high that it is progging for Canada, I remember seeing that before, it is almost like there is some sort of "cycle" or something going on;)   Even if there are "just" some flakes tomorrow or tomorrow night it still would be exciting for the first significant flakes of the year for me, I think I did see one with the last cold blast, but they were very few and far between.

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Nick,

You are seeing some very important features that are unique to this year.  I am on my way to work out.

Have a great day.

Gary

I think the pattern is somewhere around 46-48 days. More research time... if only I didn't have school, then I would have more time. :)

dberk,
clear your temp files and cookies and possible your java temp files as well then reboot

I'm reading "The Shack" by Wm. Paul Young, very good book by the way, and in the first chapter it speaks so well to why we get "giddy" this time of year.

"Snow or freezing rain suddenly releases you from expectations, performance demands, and the tyranny of appointments and schedules.  And unlike illness, it is largely a corporate rather than individual experience.  One can almost hear a unified sigh rise from the nearby city and surrounding countryside where Nature has intervened to give respite to the weary humans slogging it out within her purview.  All those affected this way are united by a mutual excuse, and the heart is suddenly and unexpectedly a little giddy."

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And this is also a great human lesson on how we feel when the storm doesn't materialize and suddenly you have to go to work or school when you had a completely different mindset.  Hopefully there are none of these experiences this winter.  It is the worst thing for a meteorologist.  Not only do we hate it that the forecast busted, but that we let people down.

Thanks for sharing.  Hopefully we will get that "giddy" feeling soon.

Gary

The 23rd of November Looks Exciting. But Please Welcome Back Fantsay Storms.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_228s.gif


If this happens. a freakin foot of snow.

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Remember one thing!  The biggest snowstorm in November Kansas City recorded history is 9 inches.  So, this is just fantasy.  But, it is fun to look at.

Gary

Beautiful morning walk at 5am this morning.  It was so nice and bright from the moon.  Now it's cloudy, cold and breezy, sure hope that goes away soon!  Still doing the "no snow, no snow" dance.  Just think what a great Winter it would be if we didn't even get one flake?  Just kidding all you snow lovers out there..ha! ;)

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No snow...I'm all for that!

Jeremy

Yay for snow!  Even if it is just a few flurries or a brief shower!  =)

Have a great day everyone!

I am going to keep my fingers crossed that the "fantasy storm" is no fantasy and we get even 2-4 inches of snow! With my luck though, we will get a couple of feet because I am supposed to go to Sioux Falls, SD on the 26th. ;)

Pat

That fantasy storm has like a foot of snow in Louisiana! Don't think that is likely.

chfs327- Well if that fantasy storm could be a day later I'd be happy as I picked Nov. 24th for the first 1 inch of snowfall!  dea

I picked the 26th of November because it's almost inevitable that there's some type of weather disaster to mess up holiday travel plans!  I'm happy to see the models have a storm in the timeframe.

Notes,

As promised..here is my response to your question earlier this week.  You had several questions…I will post your entry below:

“Are you still of the opinion that your cycle is 41 days long?  If so, do you have a response to Jeremy's question from yesterday's blog when you appeared to support a cycle length of 46 days?

It is interesting that you've had this cycle length for so long.  It seems to me that this dissonance supports one of two options:

1).  If Gary finds the same cycle length, it would support Scott's claim that the "cycle" can be defined earlier than Gary contends,

2).  Alternatively, if Gary finds a *different* cycle length, it would support the notion that reasonable people could see different cycle lengths in the flow, thus negating the existence of just *one* cycle length.”

Ok...

So, to answer your first question – Yes.  The follow up in your question is how it could be 46 days.  The quick and dirty answer is two fold.  The easy part first, I was referencing the GFS model several days out.  As we both realize, the GFS has a bias of being quick long range.  The second part is that the cycle is not an exact duration, rather a having some flux from cycle to cycle thus a range provided  ~43 days.  Perhaps 40-45 days.  

Remember, it is the pattern and flow of the pattern that is critical as unique and repeating.  The cycle is merely a definition of a beginning and end of the pattern before repeating.  

Duration singularly is not as important as the pattern recognition, long term longwaves, etc…as components of the LRC as a whole.

This is a question that has come up many times not just from you or about this entry, but in general about the LRC.  I should probably write a canned answer as it will come up many more times, I am sure.  

So, that will lead you down the “ with so much variance, you can make any map fit another”  I know this answer as I used to ask it often of Gary.  I believe you have used it several times.  

Having further immersed in the LRC this year [is that even possible?], I have learned much more.  In addition to studying this theory, I have done much more research on other weather and QA aspects.  Based on this ongoing learning, and enhanced understanding, I have something for you to consider…

In the past, you have mentioned the Madden-Jullian Oscillation [MJO].  I will not go into the depths of what it is or represents in this post, but there are some fundamental methods it uses to assert it’s existence.  I am making the assumption that you find this oscillation to be valid.  Many other scientists in the world do, though it hasn’t been “proven”.

Based on methods of definition, the MJO asserts that there is a pattern of activity that occurs in the atmosphere defined within a general area of the earth.  To put some definition to that pattern, duration is defined to a “cycle” of that pattern.  To measure this pattern, using time lapse methods of anomalous atmospheric conditions are measured.

So, let’s draw just one parallel here.  Would I assume that you would accept the MJO as defined by a cycle of 30-60 days, yet have problems with the LRC having variance and much less at that?  


I am not asking you to accept the LRC based on the MJO.  I do think that the presence of patterns and cycles as defined within the MJO would lend the possibility the LRC could exist if indeed you do accept the MJO research methods.  

Some other interesting thoughts…

http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap12/mjo.html

“Until the early 1980's little attention was paid to this oscillation, which became known as the Madden and Julian Oscillation (MJO), and some scientists questioned its global significance. Since the 1982-83 El Niño event, low-frequency variations in the tropics, both on intra-annual (less than a year) and inter-annual (more than a year) timescales, have received much more attention, and the number of MJO-related publications grew rapidly.”

“The explanation [sic] is simplistic, in that it idealises the oscillation, as it isolates it from other variations. As mentioned before, the speed and size are variable, and the MJO mainly affects rainfall patterns in Indonesia and surrounding areas. Not all of the elements of the MJO -- convection, zonal wind, moisture convergence, and SST anomalies -- are always visible (5). It is only when the 30-60 day oscillations are extracted from a series of MJO events that the idealised picture of the MJO emerges. Consecutive oscillations have varying amplitudes, periods, and wavelengths.”

I am positive the LRC exists..and there is much more research to come, but would challenge how one could accept the MJO yet reject the potential of the LRC.

As far as your other questions regarding if A or B, I will have to hit that in another entry later.  This response  has already chewed up enough room.  I am positive we will have plenty of time ongoing to discuss in depth.

Certainly more research to do and much more discussion.  ;-)

Oh..and it IS Thursday...hello, Jeremy  ;-)

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It's Thursday and I'm about to leave...but that was a nice discussion and hit on some good points. 

Time to enjoy today before the colder air moves back in!

Jeremy

I really like the idea of our first 1 inch of snow being on the 23rd as I picked that day. I have no scientific data as to why I picked that day, it just felt like a good day to pick. I love watching the snow drift down from the sky. Driving in it can be a challenge, especially when there is a layer of compacted snow/ice under the current layer of snow. But after I drive in the snow for the first time in the season, I quickly remember to really change my driving habits. By the way, the husband is totally doing the snow dance. He can't wait for the snow. Just last night he commented that while the full moon looked really pretty, it would look wonderful shining on snow.
Audra

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Audra,

Take a vaction to Marquette, MI from December-March and you will see enough snow to last you a lifetime!  I think living there ruined any love for snow I once had.

Jeremy

Gary a couple of things on my early AM post.  I meant to say my gut instinct tells me snow, very light hard to see snow late Friday night, not tonight.  I was so grumpy this morning to go outside at 5AM, feel the wind see the dull sky.  I would have bet anything then the best we would see is a mostly cloudy 58.  But these strong winds and just enough sun came out to kicks us to 64 out here.  Now it is dark, grey and ugly again outside.  Well I better get used to it for the next 5 months.  Honestly, if it was 25 degrees cooler I would say we got snow.

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I thought you may have meant that! 

Gary

GGGGooooooo SSSNNOOWWW!

Looks like Nov. 23rd or 24th could be our 1st chance!!!!

What U.S. city receives the most snow each year, on average? I thought I once heard it was somewhere near the Great Lakes, but I can't remember where.

Seeing our first snow during the week of Thanksgiving would be a perfect way to kick off this holiday season!

snow  showers!!! thats better than flurries..I hope I see some.

What's the deal, I've hear on TWC and MSNBC and other places that MSNBC was a proud supporter of the weather channel. Are you?

Remember November 23-24, might as well be light years away in terms of how fast models can change;)
Although would it not be fitting to have a major winter storm DURING Gary's Winter Forecast? LOL

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That would be something.  Everyone should just enjoy the GFS and other extended models for their snowstorm predictions, but until we pin down the LRC for this year we just don't know if the predictions are realistic.  You know if I thought so the I would have mentioned something.  It has to fit, so let's wait and see.

Gary

hey Gary long time no talk :)

I have a quick question I have been doing some very extensive research on Meteorology and programs through out the country, I am determined to get a Meteorology Degree even if it sucks every penny out of my pocket. anyway, was wondering if an Earth Science degree, or environmental science degree is equivalent to a Met Degree?

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It really is equivalent in many respects.  Let us know which program you are talking about.

Gary

wow, dare i say that the 00z run of the gfs is looking a bit more promising for some flakes friday night and overnight into saturday? it sure looks that way.  

twister, im no meteorologist so i might not be correct here...but it depends on what kind of meteorologist you want to be.  are you trying to become a broadcast met? regardless you will likely need a masters degree at the least on top of a BS, which is what an earth science or environmental science degree would be.  a lot of the senior meteorologists have doctoral degrees.  i dont know how competitive the field is, but earth science may be a little...generic...for some of the more prestigious schools.  i had a buddy who went the met route down at FSU and he went into it with a degree in chemistry-he was a math buff too.  like i said, im not sure-i just doubt gary will answer ;)

I think I got a case of modelitis, Nick its funny how you mentioned about the 23-24th storm about how fast the models can change the latest GFS does not show an impressive storm for them days it keeps on going back and forth also it looks like Thanksgiving could be interesting though, hmmm...... Also, looks like we got some nice radar returns in central ks maybe we will get some thunder later on. Pvt I hope the trend for friday night and saturday morning continues.  Well I'm off to bed good night bloggers.

The latest GFS model basically takes out the whole 20th-23rd system

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Yes, but let's see what tomorrow's models do.

Gary

It will be back,

http://tinyurl.com/6x95vx

46 day cycle give or take a few days. I'm about to rest my case

NO!!!  Hold off on the snow until Dec. 1st!  I voted for Dec. 1st!!!  OK..  I will take the snow earlier...  just love it anytime, but thought that the prizes from the snowflake contest would make a nice gift for someone special... or an heirloom for my daughter...