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Nice warm morning for a walk here, a little wet but not bad .07 for rainfall overnight, we don't need anymore thank you!  I miss the sun, please bring back the sun.  Big game down in Pittsburgh tomorrow, my husband will be there, sure hope he doesn't freeze, he hates the cold as much as I do, maybe more.  Sunday looks fantastic a great day to be outside.  "No Snow, No Snow" doing the stomp.......
Have a great day!
--deb

Is there any way for us to check what out date for the snowflake contest was, I can't remember mine.

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I don't have the list with me right now.  When I get to work later I may be able to check.  Ask later on in the day and I will see if I can find out. 

Gary

i'm with you deb!

and getting a little tired of the wind too, for that matter! nice and calm this morning then i read gary's post.

Gary, the trough you speak of, is this similar to the one that developed last year to our east and was a factor in our winter LRC events? With this one developing more to the west this time and closer to the KC metro is this a possible indication that we may have a bit more snow at least in the eastern side of the city? This map reminds me of some events last winter where this set up was a bit more in the middle to eastern side of Mo. and we missed out on the lift factor that would have produced more activity in the metro. Just random thoughts and questions.
I am very anxious for those first magical flakes.

Gary,

The weather in Sprint Center last night was fantastic!  It was not too "COLD" to "PLAY"!

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But, I didn't get to go.  So sad.  How was it.?

Gary

N2 I was thinking the same thing. The trough showen today looks similar to last year thus wisconsin getting lots of snow. If this particular trough is a regular feature on this years lrc I think we want it farther west. I think Gary mentioned this at some point that he was hoping it would set up farther west of us this year. Not sure , I may be way off.

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Remember, it isn't just one trough.  Don't worry yet.  And, notice, Madison, WI isn't getting hit by this.  Very interesting isn't it?

Gary

More wind.....imagine that!! :o)
Monica

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November is the 3rd windiest month of the year!

Jeremy

Will the warm on Sunday be accompanied by gusty south winds? I hope not. I really need to ride some horses and all this wind makes it a bit too exciting for me to hop on a wooly beast that is feeling good from the cool weather.

I should invest in a wind turbine. There is always some kind of wind blowing.

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With the quick up and downs over the next week I would expect quite a bit of wind...and that will include Sunday afternoon.

Jeremy

However the LRC sets up this year, please, please let it be a snowy winter!!

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No

Jeremy

Will remind everyone that some of us in nc mo already have had snowflakes this year i hope we get more

November is the 3rd windiest month of the year!

Yeah, especially before election Tuesday.

I love your comment on the LRC set-up!!  I couldn't agree with you more. I'm just going to pretend that is the official "sneak peek" to this winters' forecast so I will enjoy my Friday! The drive up to Madison had snow the entire time through Iowa and Wisconsin last weekend. I've already seen enough now and am ready for spring! ;)

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I'm looking forward to the one mild day in January you always told me existed in Kansas City where you can sit outside and enjoy a nice beverage.  Hope your trip to Madison was a good time! 

Jeremy 

Gosh Jeremy, you REALLY dont want it to snow at all do you?  I wouldnt mind enough snow for my son to play in it and make a snow man cuz this will only be his second winter with snow as we lived down south when he was born till last year.
Becky

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Becky,

I'll take one good snow that sticks around for a couple of days around Christmas.  Is that a good compromise:)

Jeremy

yeah its not technically the first snowflakes of the year, just gary's first ;)

the clouds are thickening rather quickly this morning.

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I wonder how many of us haven't seen the first snowflake Pvt Murphy?  I bet it is 90% of the bloggers are still waiting for their first flake. It could happen later today through early Saturday.  Sometime in there!  We should get one or two little bands of snow showers late tonight or Saturday morning. So, maybe it won't be much longer.

Gary

That would be great Jeremy, I dont really care for the snow myself! LOL
Becky

I have to agree with Jeremy, being raised in MN I have seen enough snow to last me a life time. I already miss the lake! Just one snow storm for the kiddo's and that would be fine with me.

That storm should show back up:

http://tinyurl.com/6x95vx

Somewhere around the 24th or so

Interesting and complex things this year..but so much as a picture doesn't prove the LRC, it does make it interesting to look at sometimes...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20081015.html

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_312l.gif

Is the mean trough going to be far enough west?  Is it deep enough?  Will we get dryslotted?

How strong is the western ridge?

Details details...

Evidence that the GFS sometimes can lose its mind....LOL...look at this pattern.  How goofy...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_360l.gif

judging by the comments on the blog from back when you were gone i would say it was considerably more people than that gary.  considering that 85-90% of the people in the viewing area live in a relatively tight location, your guess could be right-maybe the number of responses in the blog was an anomaly.  however, a safer assumption would be that a large % of the viewing area has already seen a couple flakes-probably close to half since they have been reported in north west and north central central mo, northeastern ks and parts of the city including your area.  but im not going to split hairs with you since it really isnt important...especially since i personally have only seen sleet once and graupel once on separate locations.  

regardless, it does look like a better chance of a more widespread flaking outside.

scott, its a little hard to get dryslotted when the low goes south of the area like it does in those maps...but aside from that-yeah the gfs done lost its mind a while ago(beyond a week).  it is having a horrible time recognizing the depth of the canadian air.  perhaps because the gfs relies on climatology for much of its extended range outlook? it doesnt see the abnormally cold air for the time of the year.  that and it always moves a little quick.

The wind is really picking up down here now! I am one still waiting for my first snow flake?? :o) Watch it happen down here this weekend when I am up north at work or sleeping. Hah! Have a great weekend!!
Monica

I'm going to buy lots of Head and Shoulders and spray all around my farm to keep all the flakes away!! :)

so are these snow showers going to come overnight when I am sleeping?  I wanted to actually see them...

I have not seen snow so far and hope I don't anytime soon.  I'm with Jeremy a little around Christmas when I'm in Louisiana would fine.  That way I don't have to deal with it.

pvt - yeah..I get that, but knowing the GFS is a bit erratic that far out, one wonders about the depth of the trough and where it ejects.  

We have seen more and more storms eject very near us and based on the trough depth, certainly could drop us in the deformation zone or if the storm rides up quickly, a dry slot is not out of the question.

Long story short, based on the example I provided, I am not certain yet of the depth of the trough.  It could happen, and hope it does, but wonder how it will work out.

I have not yet seen snow this year, but I haven't looked very hard.  It will be here soon enough, where I won't have to strain to see it.

Heck, I am already imagining now how Spring will set up this year..wow.  I am envisioning a baroclinic fiesta!  

I am ready for Winter..and it is along with Fall, my favorite times of year personally, though Spring is my favorite from a weather passion standpoint.

Summer is for the birds, both personally and from a weather standpoint...LOL

Jeremy, wouldn't be cool if you bring the Marquette magic to KC this year?  I can just imagine you shoveling snow off your roof, grumbling, and the occasional fist up in the air directed at the snow gods.

I think that would be fun...  LOL.  Better yet, perhaps I will try to build a snowman this year inspired from that image.  While the neighbors may not appreciate it or understand it, I would find it hilarous...

;-)

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I will never go through a winter like 00-01 when I lived in Marquette. 

Jeremy

agreed scott, like i said i havent seen snow yet either, although there were more than a few reports of it around the area whenever those events were taking place in gary's absense.  i echo your sentiments about the ejection points.  it has been to our west thus far, which would suggest a dryslot.  hopefully the deeper amplification does indeed put us in a better area for deformation zones.  although the decemeber 22nd event last year was the most entertaining with the lift being what it was coupled with the convection...far more interesting than the relatively mundane deformation bands ;)

just had a wind gust to 39mph-barely tropical storm force.

if you get enough snow, you should make a snowman in the mold of jeremy scott...

Well those November winds are just a blowin' at my house, with the low grey clouds whipping by, did have a few peeks of sun earlier though.  Looks like we are heading into a classic "airmass battle" northwest flow for a while in which we alternate between warm air from the south and west and the cold Canadian air to the north and east, later in the winter this could be even more dramatic, I would think with one day maybe being 50 degrees, and then the next day being 20 degrees with a bitterly cold wind chill!

Finally, some normal people that don't like snow LOL Cold, gray, windy days just make me want to hibernate and do nothing. I get very boring when it's like that because it seems like everything looks sad. The trees are barren and the land looks old. I always feel perky when I see lots of sunshine, even if it's only in the 50's.

Question... I have heard the term "graupel" used. What is it? Being from So. Cal. I have had to learn a lot of new terms weather wise. I have learned what freezing rain is, frozen rain versus hail, I know what sleet is (rain, snow and a tiny bit of frozen rain all mixed together, right?) but I don't know what graupel is. I supposed I could google it...
Audra

Well Gary I have just experienced a new first in the weather.  It is 50 degrees we have partly cloudy skies, winds out of the west northwest and it just got through sleeting.  It lasted about 3 minutes.  Like they say, don't like the weather wait just a little and it will change.  You said roller coaster weather, but this is crazy.

Jeremy..gotta love the rollar coaster.  I find it pretty cool [pun intended] that we may see the H85 temps vary as much as 30C in the next 5 days.

Wow.  This is inline with thoughts I had earlier this month in general.  I love this time of year...watching the clashes and atmospheric battles...

Having the LRC makes it fun to watch unfold.

Graupel...  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graupel

Just another form of frozen precip.

Gary, I dont see our first inch of snow happening this month,maybe in December let's wait and see.

No Snow, No Snow.  Those flakes may fly in the air but they won't dare stick around here!  No Snow, No Snow.  Hoping for a dome of warm air to settle over Miami Co!
--deb

We have had sleet/Graupel falling here in SW Topeka off and on for the past 20 minutes or so with a temp of 41.7 at my house.

Just signs of the winter to come perhaps?  ;)

Mike

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Mike,

Thanks for the report.  We are using the bloggers reports on the air tonight.

This is cool!

http://kcwx.communitytoolbars.com/

earlier it was raining when i got off work and i went to the store.  when i got out, the rain had stopped but the leftover drops had glazed on the hood and trunk of the car-weird...its 40 degrees, too warm to have freezing water at the surface-did i say weird already?

Pvt Murphy,

I am certain they didn't freeze on contact.  There is just no way, but there had to have been some ice in the raindrops.  Or, they could have been slush droplets.

Gary

gary the degree I am interested in is offered at UCM, they also have a tv station where you can forecast the weather, it is college students majoring in Broadcasting or Earth Science I believe. The only thing I am worried about is that some tv stations will not recognize an Earth Science Degree as a Met Degree. But in the Earth degree there is several courses such as met, oceanography, physics, chem, calculus, etc. I just think that is not as in depth as most degrees, for example It doesnt have synoptics and mesoscale classes. What do you think? Would you look at it as a Meteorology Degree?

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I will have to think about it.  You can learn a lot about synoptic meteorology on your own, but a class is still very important.

Gary

One primary difference in the longwave trough pattern I've noticed so far this LRC versus last year is that the shortwaves are rounding the base of the trough at a more northern latitude than they did last year.  Because shortwave disturbances generally are not digging as far south before ejecting, when they start to eject to the NE they are mostly passing NW of KC, even if the axis of the trough is in a similar position.  This latest shortwave is or was digging, but it's not going to dig far enough S to bring the measurable snow to KC, it will be N and NE.  It is complicated, but last year the KC area was within or close to quite a few of the deformation zones associated with these shortwaves as they moved NE.  This year those deformation zones are staying farther north.  I remember several storms last year that dug all the way south into northern Mexico before turning NE.  I doubt that scenario plays out much this year.

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I don't quite see it the way you are describing. Sometimes November can throw off that thinking for a while. Last year in November the jet stream retreated north and it was quite flat and wavy across Canada leaving us with a long dry spell.  This year has already been a bit more active and amplified.  I think we will see more digging and a bit farther west this winter, but we have more analysis to do.  We will be working very hard during the next week.

Gary

So this afternoon we had either small hail or sleet coming down in Downtown Lawrence.  It was 47 outside per the noaa.gov website.

Gary-

We had either small hail or sleet today in Downtown Lawrence.  The noaa.gov website had the temperature at 47.  What are your thoughts?

-Brian

Sorry for the multiple postings... the website froze up the first time.

-Brian

When I left home around 04:30 P.M. it had allready been raining. Received 0.02" total from that rain shower, tacked on to the 0.02" from the prior rainfall early Friday morning (After midnight).  With a total 0.04" of precip.

Ray over in East Lawrence

Hey Gary,

I don't think that it is doing anything at my house just yet. Since i do live in Overland Park i think i will get the snow just yet.

What do you think that the central zone will get the snow or a mixture of sleet and/or snow.

brad bryant

Hey Gary,
I am trying to upload my winter preview video you requested, and when I click add video, it comes up saying Invalid Authintication.

Alex Pickman

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Alex,

I wish I knew what was wrong. You could go find my story I did, I think I added the link to the blog a few days ago.  Click on that and try to submit it that way?

Gary

Hey Gary,

I am going to email the video to you...Your email is lezak@nbcactionnews.com right?

Alex

Mixed light rain and snow grains up north at 64th and I-29. Winter is coming - yes!

Brrrrrrr just in from an abbreviated walk with Windy, had to keep it to 30 minutes because the wind was just cutting right through me.  She didn't seem to mind it, all snuggled up in her pink coat.  It's 33 here in Paola with the wind blowing at a pretty steady 22 mph.  No flakes in site, thank heavens!  I hope I can get her to the park for a run this afternoon otherwise she's going to be really antsy being confined to the house and yard today.  Looking forward to a sunny day tomorrow and next week looks good too!  I have family coming for Thanksgiving so I'm really doing that "no snow, no snow" stomp.  Have a great weekend everyone.
--deb

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The wind is 'raw' this morning...it cuts right thru you!  Don't count on completely sunny skies tomorrow...may be quite a few high clouds around.  Sunday is a weird day since we are going to be on the edge of a bigger warmup to our southwest.  This will lead to some clouds in our area.

Jeremy

its snowing! well-flurrying...

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PVT,

I can now say I've seen my first snowflakes this season.  A few flurries on the Plaza right now.

Jeremy

THERES A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW OUTSIDE!!!!!!!! :-)

SW corner of Lawrence checking in this AM and we have what appears to be Snow Grains descending upon us.  Hard to notice unless you are outside and I'm not even sure if my description is right...however what ever it is they are not really flakes nor are they very hard like frozen dropplets would be.

In any event something light and white has arrived.

Bob

Snow in Tonganoxie....would have to agree with Bob....pellets, ice balls, grauble?  Not really snow flakes but, as I was driving down the road, it is blowing in waves across the streets.  Let it snow, Let it snow, Then let it be 60 degrees tomorrow so that we can all get sick and stay home from work on Monday!!!!!!

Sleet or Grapel??  falling over here at the Sprint Campus...

Yeah!  There's light snow and sleet here in the Northland, by NE 76th St. and N Tullis (right off of Shoal Creek).

I can now say I've seen my first snowflakes this season.  A few flurries on the Plaza right now.

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Sigh, kinda reminds me of Madison in May!  LOL!  
Snow flurries at the International Airport as well.  Lets see if it's enough for the sensors to detect this time! ;)

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Sensors detected the snow at KCI...let the winter season begin:)

Jeremy

Well, seeing the flurries outside at K hwy and 45 hwy, parkville, but dont want my son to see it cuz then he will want to stand outside until there is enough to make a snowman! lol.  My hubby is ready for the snow....as long as he knows I wont drive in it.  Stay warm everyone!
Becky

I moved from kansas city area to the Niagara falls buffalo new york area at the end of june. I LOVE snow from the stories i'm hearing i'm going to be in hog heaven here. Guess the 5 or 6 inches we prayed for in kansas city is a small snowfall here. Someone told me there was a 24 hour storm in the late 90's that dropped 7 feet yes feet wow :o. I can't wait!

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Enjoy your snowy winter.  Even a winter with below average snow in a lake-effect snow belt produces a lot of snow.  Send us some pictures after a big one!

Jeremy