***Tune in Monday, November 24 at 10 p.m. for Kansas City's most accurate Winter Forecast***
The title of the blog will be the weather theme for about the next 3-5 days. Lots of ups and downs are on the way...with today being a definite down! Highs were around 40 today, but most of those occurred just after midnight. Mainly upper 30s were observed Saturday afternoon. But the cold was half the story since winds gusted near 30 mph and we also recorded our first trace of snow at KCI. For more information on the snow and some climatological numbers related to average snow dates please see my previous blog.
The cold push of air that arrived yesterday and today was something we were discussing almost 7 days ago. Last weekend I even blogged about possible snowflakes with this system for Kansas City. While this wasn't a major precipitation maker, it was a huge change and our accurate forecast leading up to this event is a good reminder why so many people continue to participate in our blog and watch our weather segments each day. A huge thank you to everyone!
Alright, time to discuss some of the changes ahead this week. The previous blog displayed a surface map for Sunday with temperatures in the 50s. Now let's look at the 850mb temperature map. Notice the push of warmer air about 1500 meters above the surface. Around Kansas City the 850mb temperatures on this map are about 7-8C.
After Sunday another shot of colder air will drop in and as a result by Monday highs will be back in the 40s. There are a few holiday lighting ceremonies around the area Monday evening, and if you attend plan for temperatures from 40-35.
Below is the forecast surface map for Monday. The cold front is well to the south of the area. Lurking on the horizon is a warm front that may push highs back into the 60s by Wednesday. The key this time of year to any warm-up is if the warmest air aloft can arrive during the day and peak heating. With the shorter days big warm-ups get tougher the farther we head into November and December.
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With the cold air moving in on Monday and a good warm-up possibly in the cards for Wednesday, Tuesday will be a 'transitional' day with a cold morning in the 20s and afternoon highs in the upper 40s to 50s. By Wednesday the GFS is advertising a warmer day with a front arriving late. If this is the case highs well into the 60s look possible at this moment.
These quick moving fronts will be our main forecast challenges the next 3-5 days. With little to no moisture to work with I think most of these fronts should move through dry.
Finally we always mention that severe weather can occur anywhere at anytime of year. Very early Saturday morning deadly tornadoes moved thru North Carolina killing 2 people. Here is the preliminary NWS storm survey from one of the 7 tornadoes that was reported. This was an EF-3 tornado.
...TORNADO SURVEY OF EF-3 TORNADO NEAR WILSON AND ELM CITY IN WILSON
COUNTY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH WILSON COUNTY EMERGENCY SERVICES AND WILSON FIRE AND RESCUE...DETERMINED THAT AN EF-3 TORNADO OCCURRED IN WILSON COUNTY. THE TORNADO OCCURRED ALONG A DISCONTINUOUS...APPROXIMATELY EIGHT-MILE PATH THAT BEGAN WITH
MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO A DWELLING AND A SNAPPED TREE ALONG HARRISON DRIVE JUST SOUTH OF WARD BOULEVARD. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE WAS THEN NOTED TO THE NORTHEAST...ALONG LONDON CHURCH ROAD...SOUTH OF ROUTE 1330.
ON LONDON CHURCH ROAD...ONE HOME WAS COMPLETELY DESTROYED AND SWEPT OFF OF ITS FOUNDATION. BASED ON EYEWITNESS ACCOUNTS AND THE DAMAGE...FIRE AND RESCUE ESTIMATE THE HOME ROLLED AS MANY AS FOUR TIMES. IN THIS HOME...THERE WAS UNFORTUNATELY ONE FATALITY AND TWO INJURIES.
ACROSS THE ROAD FROM THIS HOME TO THE NORTHEAST...THE UPPER
PORTION OF A HOME WAS DESTROYED...AND ANOTHER HOME HAD A ROOF COMPLETELY BLOWN AWAY WITH TREES ON TOP OF IT. IN THIS LATTER HOME...EYEWITNESS ACCOUNTS NOTED THERE WERE TWO MORE INJURIES...CONDITIONS UNKNOWN. OTHER EYEWITNESS ACCOUNTS SUGGESTED THERE WAS LITTLE NOISE WITH THE EVENT UNTIL THE TORNADO STRUCK. SEVERAL INDIVIDUALS WERE AWAKE FOR VARIOUS REASONS AROUND 330 AM...AND IT WAS JUST A FEW MINUTES AFTER THIS WHEN THE TORNADO STRUCK THE LONDON CHURCH ROAD AREA...ESTIMATED TO BE AT 340 AM.
THE TORNADO THEN FOLLOWED A DISCONTINUOUS PATH INTO ELM CITY.
THERE WERE NUMEROUS INDICATIONS OF TREE DAMAGE IN ELM CITY WITH A PORCH ROOF BLOWN OFF...AND OUTBUILDINGS DAMAGED OR TOPPLED. FINALLY...THE LAST NOTICEABLE DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED ALONG ROUTE 1400...AND JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF HEFNER ROAD AND ROUTE 1402...WHERE SMALL CLUSTERS OF TREES WERE SNAPPED AND OUTBUILDINGS WERE DAMAGED. THE DAMAGE IN AND NORTHEAST OF ELM CITY WAS CONSISTENT WITH EF-0 DAMAGE.
TIME/DATE: ESTIMATED FROM 330 AM TO 345 AM EST, SATURDAY NOVEMBER
15, 2008
PEAK WIND: 140 MPH
PATH LENGTH: APPROXIMATELY 8 MILES DISCONTINUOUS
PATH WIDTH: 100 YARDS
INJURIES: 4 KNOWN
FATALITIES: 1
Thank you for stopping by the weather blog and don't forget you can catch our newscasts weekends from 8-9 a.m. and at 5 & 10 p.m. Make sure to remind your friends and family to watch the winter forecast on November 24th!
Jeremy