***Watch The Winter Forecast Monday, November 24 at 10 p.m.***
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Quick update at 11:00 p.m. The atmosphere has moistened up quickly and there are some light showers reaching the ground in Kansas City. Don't expect much rain tonight, but there will be some showers around. Most of the showers should exit by 6-8 a.m. Rain totals will be under 0.10"
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I hope everyone help on tight this weekend as the weather roller coaster took us for a quick ride. 30s and a little snow on Saturday, and then sunshine and highs around 60 on today! We are really happy with how today turned out since we were the only one's talking about 60 being a possibility since the middle of the week. Forecasting extremes can be difficult, like in this case where the actual numbers the models were spitting out were at times at least 10 degrees cooler than this! This is a great example of how downsloping winds can warm us up very quickly!
As many were enjoying the mild temperatures today I'm sure the fact that a cold front moved through the area got lost in the shuffle. The winds are now northwest and cooler air is slowly working in. A few radar returns are showing up northeast of the metro. A brief rain shower or sprinkle can't be ruled out, but the air is pretty dry so some of this may be virga.
Tonight will see skies turn cloudy to mostly cloudy and remain that way at least thru part of Monday. Below is the 700mb chart from the NAM. This shows moisture at this level which is represented by the green shades on the map. The air is very moist at this level and leads me to believe a lot of mid level clouds will cover the area heading into Monday.
The amount of cloud cover may play tricks with the forecast high on Monday, but overall most areas should see highs in the 40s.
With the clouds clearing for Monday Night I'm expecting one of the coldest nights of the season with likely mid 20s in the metro and low 20s in out lying areas. After the cold start Tuesday should be okay with lighter winds and sunshine. Still looking at 40s though.
The next big swing in temperatures will occur on Wednesday as southwest to west winds ahead of a front will bring us a dramatic warm-up. This is another case where we were the first to mention this and put 60s in the forecast. Gary had them in late this week and over the weekend I've upped the forecast to 65 on Wednesday. I could really see some areas(maybe even the metro) reaching 70 if there is sun the entire day.
Just look at the forecast 850mb temperature map for Wednesday! This represents very warm air aloft.
The really warm 'bubble' pushes right into Kansas City. If you have some holiday lights to hang Wednesday may be the day!
After the big warm up the pattern will change and we could be talking about another push of colder air arriving by Friday or Saturday. This could also provide another chance of some snowflakes if things work out right.
This year's weather pattern is about to be revealed! Make sure to tell your friends and family to watch our winter forecast on Monday, November 24 at 10 p.m. Have a great week and thanks for stopping by and participating in the best weather blog around!
Jeremy