Afternoon update: Wow, what a day! We did reach 66 downtown and 64 at KCI. We had been forecasting 62 to 65 degrees for today's high for the past week so we are quite proud of today's forecast on the big warm-up. The cold front is about to blast through! We will be tracking these changes and look ahead into Thanksgiving week at 5, 6, and 10 PM tonight.
Previous entry below:
Good morning bloggers,
We are five nights away from our winter forecast. It will be on NBC Action News at 10 PM Monday night.
So, what is this weather pattern that we believe is now in place and cycling? It is very complex as we see one major storm track that dives down over the plains into eastern troughs, and another part of the pattern, a second storm track that does break into the west coast with storm systems dropping in west and southwest of Kansas City. We are currently waiting for this second storm track to return and it has been frustrating waiting for the models to predict this trend. But, we are expecting it at any time. I wouldn't mind if it would hold off until after next week, one of the biggest travel weeks of the year. But, my confidence is still low on it staying dry all next week. More on this forecast tonight on NBC Action News.
Does what happens in November really matter for what is about to happen this winter? Let's compare last November to November, 2008:
Average temperature:
2007: 1.2 degrees above average 2008: 1.2 degrees above average
Precipitation:
0.20" (0.4" of snow) 2008: 1.18" (trace of snow)
Days 60 degrees or higher:
2007: 10 of the first 20 days 2008: 6 (so far)
Last year, the first 20 days of November were much above average with no measurable precipitation. Then it snowed twice on the 21st and the 24th as much colder air moved in, but it was still a dry month of November. This year has been very different as we have had at least a trace of precipitation at KCI 9 of the first 18 days of this month. It has been much wetter than last year, after a wet September and October. And, we still don't know how the last 10 days of the month will pan out, although there isn't a strong storm showing up at this moment.
What does this mean for the rest of the winter? Perhaps not much! Last November was dry and rather warm, at least the first 20 days were warm, and then it was a cold and wild ride through winter. We believe that the weather pattern sets up between October 1st and November 10th and then begins cycling (Go to www.LRCWeather.com for more on my weather pattern theory the LRC). So, we believe that the weather pattern is set, but what happens specifically in November may or may not be an indicator of what happens the next few months. More likely it is what happens in the upper levels of the atmosphere during the last six weeks leading up to today. And, this part of the weather pattern has been just fascinating. I will add a lot more thoughts on what all of this means very soon.
Now, onto today's weather:
The above map is the forecast surface map from the RUC model valid at 11 AM this morning. The leading edge of the north winds and colder air will be surging our way as we move into the afternoon, and by this evening that cold front (the blue line) will be way past Kansas City. Look at the strong surface high that was generated in Canada. This has a central pressure of around 1047 mb, or 30.91". Last winter we barely had surface highs that strong all season long. This could be a sign of things to come. Right now there is hardly any true Arctic air that has built up. We will have to keep monitoring northern Canada and Alaska closely for the development of any Arctic air masses. This will be a strong cold front, however and we could drop all the way into the teens by Friday morning. And, we are still watching that Pacific storm closely for Friday night. Unless it makes a turn southeast and holds together our chance of any snow Friday night will stay slim.
The European model and the GFS model are both showing a stormier trend within about 10 days. I will talk about this change on the air tonight.
Have a fantastic day! Remember our winter forecast is just 5 days away, Monday night at 10 PM on NBC Action News.
Gary