NBC Action Communities

Last months run of NOAAs long ranger has changed quite a lot on this run. Although interesting I'm not a fan of those maps because some people may take them too literal.

I've attached the link. The experimental runs can also be reached on that page.

Folks shouldn't get too excited over that graphic. Just because we're in the A zone, doesn't mean we're going to see 50f all Winter, higher than normal could technically be an above average of .1f or 5f... Same deal with precip, you could see an above average of .5" or 5"....

Some people may see nothing...

H.

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H

I'm not sure how the maps work exactly but I think if the forecast was for +/- 0.5 degree it would be thrown into the equal chance category.  I'm not sure many people would notice the difference between 0.5 degree either way for an entire winter.  But you make a good point this one forecast doesn't guarantee a warm winter.  But then again if they seem very confident about Kansas City having a very good chance of having an above average winter temperature-wise.

Jeremy

Jeremy just based on the Climate Prediction Centers forecast doesn't above avg temps and precipitation mean an increased chance of ice rather than snow?  I thought this might be the case because I thought they are predicting surface temps and the upper air levels will be cooler normally.  But we will wait and see what you all come up with Monday night since you guys are making us wait.  I don't like the thought of storms diving down near Las Vegas and then sweeping east-north-east and just to our NW.  Puts us in the heavier band areas doesn't it?

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I thought these maps would get some good discussion going:)  Keep in mind even with this forecast I'm sure there would be ups and downs...but it looks for more ups.  So there is no guarantee it would be more rain versus snow or vice versa.

Jeremy

I am already mad just by looking at their prediction. I hate it when winter is ABOVE average. Even if it is just two months. The above average precipitaion doesn't bother me at all. What does is the fact that precipitation will be snow and it might not even stay for long. Snow that lasts for only two days is not good. Four days plus is better. A week or more is the best you can get! But, with higher than normal temps, that would mean more rain right? Grrr..... I'll have to wait until Monday to see what Gary has to say...

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Gary will go in depth with his thoughts and give reasons for making a specific prediction.

Jeremy

Rain on thanksgiving? Boo, snow would be better fitting. I hate that it will always be cold, cold, cold and dry for days, but percipitation will only come when it's too warm to snow.

I hope we get some snow soon, more measureable than an inch. . . . . . .

Jeremy,

Can't we bribe you to tell us part of the Winter Forecast?? :)

I am so happy for the CPC and Accu Winter Forecasts.  I wish them the best of luck...perhaps if I squint, look sideways or some other method, I can see what they are thinking.

Short of that, I think that...well, not what they think.  Will be fun to go into more thoughts very soon!

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I'm impressed how well you are holding back your thoughts:)

Jeremy

Jeremy,

Good job, you got me started on a nice rant this morning, when you posted the Climate Prediction Center's outlook, so you are going to get a quality post that stirs up the pot here a bit.

First off I believe the CPC has done an outright awful job of predicting long range trends since 2000 or so. Every winter they predict it to be wetter in the Southern Plains and for a huge area of the US to be above normal. Granted sometimes they are going to get it correct, but I remember they predicted last winter would be mild too.. How did that pan out, especially just north of Kansas City specificially??

Also, when you take a look at their longer range seasonal outlooks, the same trends have been there forever... Every fall Florida is projected to be above normal in precipitation due to tropical activity and the Southwestern US States seem to almost always have an above normal indication in that area for alot of months throughout the year. Its very hard for me to take this seriously anymore.

As for this winter, I'll just give my hunch and say dont go by what the CPC is saying.. Just my 2 cents

Is it me, or does most predictions always have us above normal?

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We've had a lot of above normal winters the past 10 years or so.  So that isn't a bad guess based simply on the data.  But remember we think each LRC year is unique so this thinking really wouldn't apply too much.

Jeremy

The CPC most have had added a new dart player to the team.......LOL

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We can't say any forecast is right or wrong yet since the winter hasn't occurred.  But we think our forecast will work out pretty well.  Will that be the same, different, or kind of like the CPC forecast?  Everyone will find out Monday.

Jeremy

So, Jeremy, what is the likelyhood of the first inch of snow with this upcoming storm? I know its still too far out, but just say what your gut instincts feel.

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My gut says there should be some snowflakes with this next system...enough to accumulate?  We'll see...

Jeremy

Jeremy,
I was so impressed with your forecast last year- it was the most accurate- and totally different than the CPC....Looking forward to your forecast....

Have a great weekend my friend.

JP

I agree with JB that the CPC is always off.  It's almost like they read the Farmers Almanac for their forecast.
I do think through early December, we have better chances for Freezing Rain than snow.  I believe any significant snow to measure, won't be till around the 11th.

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Gary,

Comparing what's ahead this winter to the past 2 this winter seems much more complex.  Maybe things will become very obvious around December 15 like they do most years.  But we will give it our best shot come Monday Night.

Jeremy 

Looking at the latest GFS the storm doesnt look impressive for us next weekend but again the models are having a tuff time with the new LRC.

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The storm has changed many times over already and will continue to into next week.  We are still 6 days away...that is a long way out at this point.  Sometimes the 00Z & 12Z runs are a little more reliable.

Jeremy

Any updates coming soon? :)

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If I see anything on the 00Z runs that is exciting I'll do an update. 

Jeremy

lol

I can't say I understand what you guys are talking about with maps  and such,  I just want some snow soon!  I think it is a waste to be so cold and no white stuff!  Looking forward to a white forecast Monday night!  You guys are great and I enjoy reading the blog (even though I don't understand, lol)

Just by what we have seen since Mid September......I think we are in for very little snow this year. Mostly rain with late change overs to snow followed by very windy and cold periods on the back side of storms that will miss us to the northwest and pretty much dry slot us. Any snows will come on the very windy back sides of storms. That being said, think the spring could be very active on the severe level then a very dry summer.......then it's on to the new pattern in the fall.  

Kelly

CPC maps are almost a farce a 40 percent probality to be above normal on temps and a 40 percent probality of above normal on moisture....but read the text a twenty-five percent probability of both being below normal and that leaves a thirty-five percent probality of both being normal.....THOUGHTS

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Confusing to say the least.  This is just my opinion but forecasts like this one from the CPC and also the hurricane forecast from the NHC often error on the side of caution.  With purse strings tightening for funding or research dollars I don't think they want to go to far to one extreme or the other and have a major bust.  We all know this happens, but trying to explain this to someone with no weather knowledge that may control money to fund programs may be tricky. 

Our forecasts are based on the LRC.  If our forecasts are wrong or right it is our face that is associated with it.  We strive to give the best forecast so that people come back to our newscasts or blog. 

Growing up I was always annoyed at general 'x' percent chance of above or below average.  The one that bothered me most was 'equal chances' :) 

Jeremy 

I just want to have a forcast I can trust. That will come Monday night,since Gary and the team are always the closest and most detailed winter forcast. Unlike others that just say above or below normal, or or just give a low temp and snow total for the season. I not only LOVE snow, but I make some $$$ when it happens. I quit tring to come up with my own out of all of them and just keep an eye on KSHB

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Thanks for the comment.  We will give it our best shot come Monday Night to help everyone get an idea of what to expect this winter. 

Jeremy

Here's a nice site for folks who like watching models.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/

Click on the forecast tab an off you go. It's interesting to see how much this changes during runs, yesterday it had our precip type down as rain for next Saturday, today it's showing Snow. Heavest Precip locations change etc...

All good fun.

H.

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And the 6Z GFS has no snow...and little to no rain.  I'm sure it will change again by later today.  I've just kept a rain chance with a mention of snow in the forecast.  Still a long way down the road.  Hopefully by Tuesday things will line up.

Jeremy

Is it me, or is this the longest dry spell we've had this year? After getting precip what seemed like once a week. Last precip I'm thinking I can remember here was the 15th with our "snow grains" which really wasn't anything, (I would've missed them if my car wasn't black) before that I'm thinking it was the 13th.

Significant precip, maybe the 10th was the last one I saw...

Does that tie up with the LRC, or you going to keep "mum" until tomorrow? :)

H.

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Overall we are about a half inch below average for precipitation this month.  Our dry spell is currently at 5 days...but really 11 since we had more than a hundredth. 

Keep in mind last November we had a very long dry spell...but there were still fronts that moved thru the area dry.  Once the pattern repeated the jet stream was in a new location and additional moisture was available.  Even though at this moment we are in the dry spell, this doesn't always mean it will carrying through the winter...but it could:)

We'll have all the details tomorrow night.

Jeremy

Latest GFS squashes the after Thanksgiving storm, but yes time will tell, the bigger thing that I am seeing is the consistent blast of cold air the GFS is advertising, Ironically I just watched the "trailer" for Gary's Winter Forecast, and the Jet stream graphic that he showed... is almost a PERFECT match to what the GFS is advertising, so now just over a day away!!

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I didn't even know there was a trailer...but then again I've already seen the movie:)

The GFS is a little confused right now in some ways.

Jeremy