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NBC Action Weather Blog

Sunday Update

Watch the Winter Forecast on NBC Action News Monday at 10 p.m.

Good Sunday bloggers!  Our day is off to a great start with sunshine and cold and crisp temperatures.  The good news today is the temperatures should warm very quickly into the 50s.  As we have been talking about mid 50s look good in most spots.  If clouds arrive sooner then it will be a few degrees cooler.

I'm excited that it is going to be nice today since I am going to my first ever Chiefs game!  Hopefully the Chiefs blow out the Bills because I can only stay until halftime:)  I need to be back to work by 3 p.m. to get the forecast and graphics ready for the 5 p.m. show.  I love football so it should be a good time.

Later today a cold front will begin nearing the region.  Some clouds will likely arrive anywhere from mid afternoon thru this evening.  The clouds could produce a few showers or sprinkles southeast of the metro.  The chance is only about 20-30% in areas like Warrensburg, Sedalia, Marshall, and Clinton.  I think Kansas City stays dry at this moment.

The cold front will push through this evening and clear the viewing area tonight.  Behind the front highs will fall back to the 40s for Monday and Tuesday.  The air isn't arctic behind the front, so it shouldn't be a huge change.

The forecast for Thanksgiving and the holiday weekend is still up in the air.  A storm system will head into the south-central Plains by Thursday or Friday.  This could bring us rain and if enough cold air moves in a chance of some snowflakes.  Since the models really have been all over the place I haven't changed the forecast much around the holiday.

I'll try to update things later today when I get back from the Chiefs game.  Please make sure to tell your friends and family about our winter forecast which will be on Monday Night at 10 p.m. 

Jeremy

Published Sunday, November 23, 2008 7:52 AM by Jeremy WxPlus

Comments

 

Andrew_Stafford said:

Sneak Peak of Winter Forecast,please! :)
November 23, 2008 8:58 AM
 

MikeTrainor1 said:

have fun at the game, jeremy. win or lose, the atmosphere at arrowhead is always great. better if they win, of course!
November 23, 2008 9:53 AM
 

juba said:

I hope we have some snow thurday night, thats when we always put up out indoor decorations.
November 23, 2008 10:29 AM
 

LBF1958 said:

Have a great time at the game Jeremy. I was never a football fan until a friend drdrugme to a game about 20 years ago. Arrowhead is like none other! Win or lose the Chiefs are my hometown team and I will cheer them on. I'll be watching the game on TV so make sure and wave at me!!!!!

November 23, 2008 10:36 AM
 

A dogg said:

Have fun at the game! I think the clouds moved in quicker than you anticipated, it was cloudy when I got up at 10. It is windy and cold! It looks like the mid to upper 50s are about out of the question unless it clears up quickly.

***************

The clouds hung over mainly the south-southeast parts of the area.  Kind of what I was thinking.  I was a little surprised at the 1-2 hour window of cloud cover over parts of KC around lunchtime.  Overall it turned into a nice day with highs right on target.

Jeremy

November 23, 2008 11:22 AM
 

RickMckc said:

Wow, the last two runs (0z & 12z) of the GFS have really killed the precip over the next two weeks ...
November 23, 2008 11:51 AM
 

KansasPatriot said:

I have a question that maybe some of you can help me out with.  When it comes to weather forecast prediction everything seems to change often.  Now, is this more because of the computer models, or is it because weather patterns have a much higher rate of instability?  Which computer models are most accurate, and which ones seem to be the most unreliable?  There are so many different models I see on the weather blog so I am just trying to learn some new things here.


Thanks!
November 23, 2008 12:59 PM
 

davidmcg said:

Jeremy too bad the Chiefs didn't do as well as your forecast.  We are sitting in the sun at 59 with the clouds just starting to filter through.  Doesn't get any better than this in November.

******************

I was at the Chiefs game for the first half.  I saw what I wanted...a lot of scoring.  Overall a good time even though the home team is having a down season.

Jeremy

November 23, 2008 2:51 PM
 

WinterTracker said:

Gary, sorry to bother you about this, but I'm just to excited to wait. Around Albert Lea,MN I'm visiting for Thanksgiving. From the looks of it, there's supposed to be a storm around. Would that storm affect us up there. My hopes are that I get snowed in, but I'll take a few snow showers. What would your general forecast be for that region on Thanksgiving?
November 23, 2008 3:54 PM
 

GaryB said:

Kansas Patriot,  I mainly use the GFS maps which are 500 MB maps and I use this link:
http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/weather_models.php

There are 4 automated maps on that page and I average out all.
Here's the problem every weather person knows- is these maps are only accurate maybe 5 days out.  They do give hints as far as 15 days out if they all agree- and they rarely do.

The LRC is based on a cycle theory over 30-40 days, somewhat based on the GFS problem.  I've always took that a step further and compared the same LRC idea for the last 40 days to go back in time to find a similar year.
November 23, 2008 3:59 PM
 

GaryB said:

Winter Tracker, Thanksgiving will be just great.  The remote chance for anything freezing might occur Friday night, depending where your at.  Most of the KC metro area should remain as cold rain.
November 23, 2008 4:02 PM
 

LRCfan said:

looks like the storm will stay south of here on friday at this point the last few runs have pushed that system south.
November 23, 2008 4:15 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

GaryB, that is such an obscure location to get to the NCEP models.  LOL..I guess it will work.  It references this...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

To clarify, the LRC is not based singularly on a cycle.  There is much more to it.  It is based on a repeating pattern and long term long waves.  The cycle alone is just one aspect, and by itself is not wholly effective.  Pattern knowledge and longwave recognition are critical components.

A primary tenant of the LRC is that each year is unique.  Using prior years does not work in the theory of the LRC.  I know that you use prior year analogs, but is not something employed by the LRC.
November 23, 2008 4:25 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

Now that Thanksgiving Storm seems to have gone puffed, I was pretty sure that the storm around there is part of the cycle, maybe models are being ?!?!??!***
November 23, 2008 5:01 PM
 

DPannell said:

Beautiful day, sunshine, warm and dry air, just great for November.  Still doing the "no snow, no snow" dance.  
November 23, 2008 5:48 PM
 

KC_Hams said:

Here are my thoughts on this winter:

Very Cold...similar to Winter 2002-2003.
Snow...only about 12" total for KC and the first inch won't show up until January.

Nope, no scientific data used...only what my little pea-brain is thinking.
November 23, 2008 6:23 PM
 

juba said:

I decided instead of wanting snow, you have to make it snow now, Jeremy.
November 23, 2008 7:05 PM
 

juba said:

 DPannell, stop the no snow dance already! ;-)
November 23, 2008 7:39 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Andrew, remember..its not the exact storms that matter in the cycle more than the pattern before and after.  This time around, there is a bit of a new addition that wasn't evident before.  ;-)  In so much analysis this year, I better understand why things are evident before mid October, but things change a bit after mid October.

Prudence is wise with the LRC...

More to come soon on that.

To borrow from the immortal "Rock" [LOL], Jeremy, in looking long range, do you "smell" what the polar bear is cooking?  Looks rather..um..chilly upcoming...wow.

Perhaps the "Arctic Air Watch" will come a bit early this year.  Still not sure I am buying the GFS that far out, but something to watch for sure.  Could December bring sub zero temps for us?

********************

I'm sure you know we will have plenty of comments and discussion after tomorrow night at 10 p.m.

Jeremy

November 23, 2008 7:39 PM
 

DPannell said:

juba, I wish you tons and tons of snow....at your house only ;)
November 23, 2008 8:15 PM
 

Ipushsnow said:

So Scott, are you giving hints of a cold and snowy Dec. If so how long do we have to wait?
November 23, 2008 9:06 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

Jeremy,

I think you should a update with some Hints!!
November 23, 2008 9:22 PM
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