NBC Action Communities

Any Sneak Peaks? :)

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Andrew,

The last six weeks of weather is a sneak peak.

Gary

I think it is funny that the weather team is making everyone wait.  I have had several conversations about who has already said regarding this winter (the "other guys") and I keep telling them to wait until tonight's newscast on NBC.  

On another note, I signed up for the LRC weather web site.  Very cool (pun intended).

DL

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Yes, we aren't just making you wait.  We are still figuring this out up to the last second.

Gary

Chiefs need help?  What would give any of us fans that idea.  So we can't help them.  Lets help ourselves to this weather solution.  I was looking at my precip records.  Good measurable precip the middle of both Oct and Nov and then pretty much dry or very litttle the rest of the time.  So does that mean the precip cycle is on about a 32 day cycle?  I haven't really looked at temps, I should.  But precipitation has more of an impact on me than temps.  I don't want any hints like Andrew, I just want 10PM to be here earlier in the day.  NWS us sticking to their guns on near freezing  Friday morning and rain of all things.  Sounds like they should have wet snow in there.  But as I see all of you are going with the idea it will all move off well north of us.  My guess based on my precip records would say a very slight chance of some very minimal precip after 10AM on Friday and that should put us in the rain band -- my guess 0.07" or less.  Just a grey dreary day for that big shopping day.

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Friday has the potential for something to happen, but not north of us.  Right now the chance is slim of any precipitation.

Gary

Well I can kiss the "bling" goodbye as I chose this day for the first one inch of snowfall! :(  Better luck next year I hope!  Looking forward to the winter forecast tonight!  Dea

Fingers are crossed for Friday! I think that was the day that I picked. Well maybe it was Thursday. I can't remember. Come on 10:00pm. As far as sneak peeks go I think Gary has given some hints on what he thinks may happen. However, I think he is still waiting for all of the last details. I don't have the knowledge that many people on here have about weather but, after spending much time on this blog even I can somewhat see a pattern develope. This blog (just like the new lrcweather.com is going to be) has really helped me with my work and personal life. I really think it will be a great day when the LRC is proven and then the world will be able to look into forecasting in an entirely differant way. I think there are many possibilities for the LRC when it is proven. Have a great day and I will be watching you tonight Gary.

Looking forward to the winter forecast tonight!

Gary -

NBC has announced that Universal Sports Network will replace Weather Plus nationally.  Please, please tell me that this isn't the case here in KC and that you and your team will have a weather channel of some sorts on still!?

Mike and Jenn

I wish they would put the weather Channel on over the air digital instead of just cable :(

maybe someday in a few hundred years

The LRCC (Lezak's Recurring Chiefs Cycle):

A seven-day cycle that has appeared each of the last two autumns.

1) Chiefs lose.
2) Brian Waters and Tony Gonzales look dumbfounded in locker room.
3) Herm makes excuses in press conference.
4) Carl Peterson leaves Arrowhead and crawls back into hole.
5) At midweek press conference, Herm makes more excuses.
6) Team adds more has-beens and never-weres from waiver wire.
7) Team arrives for next game convinced a win is imminent.
8) Carl Peterson reemerges on sideline.
9) Kickoff.

Repeat.

Repeat.

Repeat.


On the weather side, we can't wait for your LRC forecast tonight! Thanks!

Gary,
Are you nervous right now? You should be... I think this is going to be a boring winter. i hope i'm wrong!! Good luck tonight. ryan in COLD Chillicothe

Woops Gary I meant I felt the rain chance was better to the south of KC, not north.

Gary,

Since I go to bed before the 10:00pm news block [as many of us do], I guess we will have to wait until tomorrow in order to review your winter outlook. I suspect you have more viewers at 6:00pm. Regardless, I look forward to the season forecast and the new LRC pattern.

Personally, I am hoping for above normal temperatures this winter even though I enjoy tracking snowstorms. It is arctic cold air that I do not like. But, as has previously been said:

"Enjoy your weather, because it is the only weather you've got".

Chiefs: Until Clark Hunt dumps Carl Peterson and Herm Edwards, the Chiefs will never be a team that will win playoff games. The personnel blunders have been too numerous to list. The Chiefs are a bad NFL team. Certainly, the current group of Chiefs players want to win. You can see this in their spirit and effort [exceptions duly noted] but, not in the on-field results.

Bob

I dont think I like where this is going...

andrew... i might be reading too much into this, but gary said to look at the last six weeks as your 'sneak peek.'

is that a subtle hint that this year's cycle is approximately 42 days???

One can cut the anticipation with a knife...LOL

i hate the models right now...none of them are being consistent.  i just see no way that we cant squeak out a little precip on friday at some point.  regardless of what the temps are i believe we should get a little bit.  hopefully its more than a little bit because it is suddenly dry out there.  

this would be a great opportunity to utilize the lrc as the long range models are stinking it up more than usual.  however, i have had a hard time finding the relation of the past week or two to anything thats happened since october and before.  there are random solutions that match, but i havent found consecutive matches yet for the past couple weeks.  maybe scotts seen something recent, but i havent...i have to go all the way back to the first 10 days of november to find anything remotely similar.  the jet is too chaotic right now.  the only consistent thing i have seen in the mid/long range models is the east coast trough recently.  placement is all jacked up on the west coast, and this intermountain trough with a strong negative tilt is just whacky.  the models have been hinting at a stronger mid-conus trough for a while, but it keeps getting pushed further and further back in preference to that pesky neg. tilted intermountain trough.  

i will be up to enjoy your winter forecast gary.  i always find it entertaining.  although i hate to say it, but in my opinion you dont need to put out one in order for the bloggers to know what you are thinking(you are pretty consistent in your beliefs).  but alas, i am the biased one apparently...moving on, is jeremy going to go out on a limb this year with his thoughts? or no?

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Pvt Murphy,

Jeremy, Brett, and Jeff will all come in with their thoughts and ideas on NBC Action News this week, and in the weather blog.  Look for an extensive blog on the pattern and the LRC Tuesday morning after the winter forecast is out.

Gary

I read this blog almost daily but never chime in.  I like to find out what's going on and read the fun chatter between the regulars.  However, I'm feeling quite bold and I'm going to issue my own winter forcast.  I will preface this by saying I know NOTHING about weather but just from my own observations and my common sense (though I realize that one needs more than common sense to predict the weather) I predict that this winter will be colder than normal and MUCH dryer than normal.  I think that this split thingy is going to keep us in between everything all winter long.  I believe most of the storms will either go to the north of us or to the south and we will be left out.  Just my opinion. I hope everyone has a wonder and safe Thanksgiving.  :)

Models are a bit flaky right now..but there are hints.  I liked the 12z GFS.

Pvt - there are some matches, but after getting down and dirty this year in the theory, I have much different views now of structure and finding the pattern.  Some learned, some realized.

It is easier and harder at the same time, but still, I am feeling pretty good in understanding what this pattern [LRC] will bring.  It does make some sort of sense.

Pattern recognition is the key.  Gotta know the pattern before any cycle can be derived. [IMO]  

Much more fine tuning to do, and certainly, as more and more days occur, the more solid it will become...

I think this year will have active parts of pattern and dull parts of pattern. My question would be durning the active part will there be cold air to support snow. Out of all the ingredients that have to come together for snow its seems like cold air is the hardest to get here in K.C.

I want be able to watch it tonight. :-( I have to wake up at five o'clock tomarrow morning!

yea juba I know the feeling...I have to be up by 530 at the latest but I guess I am just gonna be tired tomorrow!

Oh, I know I'm the bad boy in the box always wanting proof of the LRC.  I agree with Notes on what he said, other than there is no comparision to what was a wet and cold pattern to a somewhat normal and dry pattern.  How does one make that fit any cycle even since August, October, November?
A real LRC should not be as generalized as in the past or otherwise anyone on this blog could come up with a winter forecast.
Most here don't care about the LRC.  They just want to know when it'll snow and how much and when.
You could do yourselves a service by posting a 5 week calendar of what you think will happen on the new LRC website.  I know you won't do it because you can't.
The LRC is a theroy and in a simple form does have some credit...  
Last year the Winter Forecast said we'd have something like 20" of snow, which we did.  But there was no dates other than when we got snow, it was reported this was exactly what the LRC predicted.  By the way, 20" is the average.........
I believe all you bloggers will likely be dissapointed with a somewhat  generalized forecast.  
Now, I'll be impressed if there are specific dates, give or take 24 hours.....

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Gary B,

Well, where do I start?  Let's begin with last year's forecast 45 days at a time in January and again in February. These forecasts were very accurate and we can go over the details if you want to.  And, there were a few mistakes in there as well.  Any forecast beyond 48 hours is very difficult to get right, especially when you are trying to pin down what a storm system will do.  So, a 45 day forecast with accuracy is something to pay attention to. 

Now, with a forecast for the next 45 days now, I am not ready to be specific at all.  But, within days to weeks we will be able to do it as we learn more about this years pattern.  So, stay tuned.

Now, when it comes to caring about this years weather pattern and the LRC I will leave that up to you and the viewers, bloggers, etc.  We will lay it out there for you. You don't have to agree with it!

Gary

Garyb, such the cynic..but certainly entitled to your opinion.  I am not sure everyone would agree with you regarding the theory itself, as in the past, it has spawned some of the most interesting interaction with the bloggers, but perhaps you didn't see it that way.

While your opinions are appreciated, likely specific feedback about the other site is probably better off left there where it can be addressed at length.

As it relates to your views of precision with the Winter forecast, maybe that is something that Accuweather/Weather Channel, the CPC and other NOAA organizations others can employ.  Imagine those agencies doing day by day predictions up to 90 days out...that would be something, huh!

Until then, I guess you will get what you get...lol

[oh..and btw, I have made no bones about inviting criticism..clearly, I am spiritied about the discussions - ;-) ]

Just hours away from the Winter forecast....

All theories have some merit. I watch the winter forecasts as much as I can. When I watch a winter forecast, I expect a general idea of what could happen, are we looking at dry conditions or wet conditions? Rain, Snow or potential of Ice? No matter what theory used, you'll never get a 100% date by date forecast of weather, unless of course you can get to tie it up with Madelbrot...

That said I'm hoping Gary and team do not give us a "Hey, this year we're going to be cold, with some warm days, followed by some rain, snow or ice! We even see the possibility of an arctic blast! Total snow of 19-28" depending on where you live " Even I could do that. So I hope for some serious discussion on how the decisions are made based upon the theory in use. :) (hope that paragraph doesn't sound like I'm knocking anyone, I'm not)

Like other meteorologists Gary and his team have one way of seeing how the weather may pan out, others have other ways. Between all the ones I watch, I have a rough idea what to expect. Some folks see one pattern, others see another. Does the weather cycle, absolutely. Do I live by forecasts and hold someone responsible if they bust? Nope, it's the weather, it's Kansas City... It's meant to give the forecasters a hard time! :)

I've not fully read up on the thesis of the LRC (and even if I did, I'm certainly not in a position to be overly critical), but from what I have read it's an interesting concept, and one that is worthy of further evaluation.

H.

Kansas City has got to be a hard place for weather forecasting sometimes.  If we were in Colorado at 9,000ft or higher it would be simple.  If we were in south Florida obviously it would be simple.  Southern California the same.  When we are right in the middle of the nation caught in a battleground of highs, lows, cold air and warm air it gets nasty and challenging.

That is what I like so much about our weather though we get the best of both worlds.  Snow, and storms both multiple times a year.  

I lived in Colorado Springs for a few years when I was stationed at Ft. Carson and that was an interesting place for weather.  The mountains are like their own weather machine.  Every day it never failed in the summer for a storm to just come out of nowhere over Pikes Peak at 2pm or 3pm, high winds, constant lightning, and heavy rains that would last about 30 minutes and would suddenly go away.  Sometimes it would snow 4 days a week out there.  Not much, but a couple inches each time.  What I found weird is that at 6,300 ft in elevation in Colorado it is warmer there a lot of times in the winter than in KC.  It will be 60 degrees there and 30 here.  

gary i was just wondering. What would cause the weather to repeat? I just have a hard time understanding what would cause it to be in a pattern? Is there a guiding force? I think you should look into that aspect more. Because now its like the weather establishes troughs, etc. But how would it do that??????

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We aren't exactly sure why there is a cycle, but it is there. There is organization to the chaos in the weather patterns.  We are doing some on going research in this area.

Gary

I want to know when I will get to use my plow and see how well it works with all the new parts. When will the $$$ flakes start falling???

Its funny to watch your former boss use the word "cycle" and repeat pattern setting up.   Even the competition is using the LRC, but they would never call it that.  :P    

It will be interesting to see what you make out of this cycle and what it will mean this winter.

kansas patriot, you bring up a good point. the weather around these parts can be like finding a needle in a haystack. In fact, Springfield is considered the most diversed weather city in the u.s. because of the ice storms, the severe weather in the spring adn summer, as well as heavy rains and wind. Got to love the weather around here

Why are tall the storms just barley missing us? I hope we have a winter like laster year only with an extra inch of snow with every storm. ;-)

So close to the forecast!

if only i had cable... did you know in chillicothe you can NOT pick up any kc channels via an antenna...

Nice report Gary....well presented I thought.

Great forecast! Exactley what I wanted! Lots of snow! :)

Juba, I wish it was more snow.  20-25 isnt that much!  I wish it only took 3 snows to hit that mark!  Oh well, at least it was more than last year.

My favorite time of the year is when everyone you work with is talking about the coming storm and people leave work early because they are predicting 6-8 inches of snow....heavy wet snow.  It is the most exciting weather time of the year!