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Snowflakes in the air Saturday night as Trans Siberian Orchestra rolls into town at Sprint Center. WOW, how sweet it is.

Gary:

Good chilly late Fall morning to you sir!! It is awesome out this morning-clear-crisp with a temp. of around 21 desgrees!! I still haven't had a chance to get a new weather station for the new house but hope to soon!!

I'm still not toally back into the game yet-I have Rush's first American radio played song in my head: that's why they call me-they call me the workin man......what an awesome song!!!

I am probably way off base here but I will throw this out anyway: it seems that both the 6Z GFS and 0Z Euro have some sublte differences than the runs yesterday and Monday. Both now show a stronger closed off upper level low over Arizona around Saturday which they did not have Monday and if I remember correctly they did not have it yesterday either. Now both models take this down into Mexico as they do the next one on its heels as it gets clubbed by the stronger upper level system over the Great Lakes. I just wonder if the models are not still feeding off the strength of this Great Lakes system which has been dominant over the past 2-3 weeks. After reading the winter outlook I realize this Great Lakes Low is a dominant feature right now as is the placement of the first Long Wave Trough so to discard the models is a perlous venture in this timeframe. However, I just wonder if the modles are not slowly beginning to see/hint that maybe this SW energy is a bit stronger and that maybe in the next 24 hours they begin to show that this may actually be able to make it out of the SW around Saturday in some form. Maybe the models are kind of stuck repeating the past two weeks and just now are beginning to show some subtle hints that this Upper Level Low in Arizona may actually head East instead of into Mexico.

This is most likely stuff and nonsense and even when I have had time to really look at the models and past data my thoughts are weak at best (as I always say-I am not going to quit my day time teaching job any time soon LOL) but just a random thought!! I raeally hope to get a chance over then next few days to look at some past weather so I can get back into the game and actually make a play instead of just taking up space!! But I hope these points do make a little sense!!

On a different note: the winter forcast was just outstanding-it was clearly presented with strong evidence for why the forcast is what it is-awesome job!! I really learned alot form reading it!!!

Have a great day and as always thanks for reading-I have said it before but think it always bears repeating: it is so appreciated that you and the team read and respond to the comments-just awesome!! Have a great Thanksgiving Gary, Jeff, Brett, and Jeremy-and to the whole blog!!!!

Bill what is the GFS again in Lawrence

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Bill,

This California storm has no chance of getting caught up in the flow. The northwest flow, strengthening the Great Lakes low, is just too strong and we may see some high clouds and that is it.  We are in the part of the weather pattern that is just rather dry and tame compared to what should be on the horizon by the middle of December.  I don't like it, but there is nothing I or anyone can do about it.  So, we have to enjoy the nice dry weather and then appreciate the storm when it arrives.  I am expecting it to get quite active during the second half of December.  It seems like a long time to wait, but if it produces it will be worth it.  If it doesn't then this winter could be frustrating.  I don't want one of those winters. 

Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family!

Gary

Gary:

Thanks so much for the response!!! I really did think I was grasping at straws with those comments-I seem to do that alot LOL!!! It got me to thinking a little bit though since the models seem to be giving that low a bit more strength than they had the past few days. In the back of my mind while I was typing that "stuff" I was thinking, Bill you have just read the forecast and you know which part of the pattern we are in right now but when has logic ever stopped me from typing/blogging a bunch of random thoughts!!! LOL

I really don't mind this stretch of weather at all-it is still getting pretty cold at night and we do have fronts diving down fairly frequently-they may be dry and even cloudless, but they still keep you on your toes. In my humble opinion, it could me much more boring than it is now-I always will enjoy following a strong front and watching the wind shift line progress-dosen't take much to amuse me does it!!! LOL

I am going by memory here all the way but I think we did have a stretch in mid October like this so I am not really worried-I do think we are going to get our winter weather this year-it most likely will not last for weeks (when does it ever here??) but when it comes, I really think it will get people's attention. I always tell myself, in any given 3-4 months of winter, give me 3 weeks of that time of storms and cold and I will be happy-I have taught myself to keep expectations in check. We are just not climotology geared to have 4 months of cold and snow-too many warm air sources  for developing lows and for passing arctic highs to tap into to keep us cold and snowy for long periods of time. Again, if we can in April look back and say throughout the winter we had 3 weeks of snowy and cold periods I will call it a good winter-if we get lucky and get more then I am indeed a very happy snow goose!!!

In the end, i think this is going to be a fascinating winter to follow and one which a hobbyist as myslef can learn a tremendous amount. I am just glad I have found this Blog and the new LRC site which offers the opportunity to learn!!!

Again happy Thanksgiving to you sir and the entire weather team-you guys are Tight!!!

Bill indeed 2112 sounds awesome this morning in Lawrence

I think the models are on a LLoooonnggg Lunch break. I think they will be coming around soon.

Gary,
I have been crunching the data the past week and looking at the maps, graphs, and climatology stats, and I don't think that a pattern can be declared yet.  Right now, we are going into a stretch of weather that does not fit any previous time frames.  Now if the models are off, then we might have something to go with.  In that case, I see a BIG storm coming.  But, based on the synoptic, that just doesn't look likely.  
My deciphering is using 500mb heights, temps, rainfall from Oct. 1st.  I used a trend line to clean up the heights, and it really clarifies some things.  I am also forecasting for two sites:  TOP and UIN (my home base).  Roughly, but not exactly, the same latitude, but about 400 miles apart.  Meaning that a trough could come through at TOP without much precip but pay big dividends over my way.  
Research is ongoing, and I will share more to come.  For now, my sequence goes:

15 days active and wet
11 days calm and warm
11 days active, cold and wet
Next sequence is inconclusive.

Keep up the good work.
BAClair

 Hello Gary,   You mention snow flakes likely Saturday night or Sunday, you think we will have maybe a dusting or something like that?

 Hello Gary:  You mention snow flakes likely Saturday night or Sunday, do think we will have a dusting or something like that?      Thanks for your time. HAVE A GREAT THANKSGIVING

Northwest flow... it is what it is, dry.  At least there is not a huge upper level ridge over the middle of the country with 60's light wind and no sign of a snowflake!   One thing that is comforting is the fact that this pattern still seems to favor cold, if not average temps.  so when it does snow, maybe it will stick around for awhile, I know this won't be last winter, but hopefully the weaker longwave trough can pull through from time to time!

4caster,

A comment after my own heart.  Surface analysis..I love it.  Just off the top of my head, and correlating it to how I am seeing things, your observations seem not that far off.  In my head, I am equating each of your obs to a section of the cycle as I have observed.

Have you not found a period of dry and cold?  In looking at the trends, I am thinking you are equating that to the active/cold/wet.  It is quite interesting to see this analysis and think I might try to map surface trends to the cycle as I know it.

Learning last year, there are parts of the year that the surface analysis will suffer a bit, but think this time of year, it seems to work ok...

Nick, there seems to be parts of the pattern with the northwest flow weakens..and I think it is that time we will have the most opportunity.  Much like real estate, it all depends on location, location, location.

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Scott,

It isn't when the northwest flow that weakens where we have a chance.  It is strengthening significantly in the next three days, and this strengthening is leading to the rapid development of a storm. It will likely end up east of us, but it has to be watched closely.  So, when we are in strong northwest flow, the stronger it is the more potential there is for a storm to ride south out of Canada.  When the NW flow breaks down and the southwestern or plains trough returns, then we have the chance of some wetter storm systems.

Gary

Finally an interesting model run.  The 12Z GFS looks fairly interesting between 72 hours and 120 hours.  Just one run though.  Will be interesting to see if the 18Z continues the trend.

Have a good one...

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Matt,

See how fast things can change. Let's see if the models continue to trend in this direction.

Gary

Hopefully it brings snow this weekend, I don't care how much as long as theres big fat flakes floating by, pretty. :-)

Well the 12Z NAM has significant differences with the 12Z GFS. The GFS seems alot stronger and much more bullish with precipitation on friday night into saturday, and then continuing over the weekend. We will see which way it trends, but im not optimistic enough to jump on the "storm" bandwagon yet, as it is only one run that has shown this.

Although, I agree, how fast things can change....

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Yes, and this is why we shouldn't be analyzing for the possibility of accumulation of any snow yet.  Just a slightly better solution and then we can start talking about it.  But, what if it just develops after it passes us? A lot of questions are still just popping up.

Gary

This stinks.  I went from fearing we wouldn't make it home to Lincoln, NE for our family Thanksgiving Friday-Sunday, to being elated because there was nothing on the radar, to now being upset again thinking our plans may be ruined.

Any thoughts as to when you will be able to get a better handle on this and can give us more of an idea on possible arrival time and strength?  Also, will this also effect areas north of us?

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Unfortunately it is just too early to even think that this would cause any travel problems.  We should know more within the next 24 hours.

Gary

Latest GFS gives Kansas City about 2" of snow this weekend;

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX

Snow Day,

At this point, I would be shocked if that scenario actually happens. One could hope though...

Maybe I will finally see a snowflake!! I am waiting for some more wind......we have had a break from that for a bit! Happy Thanksgiving and safe travels everyone.
Monica

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Monica,

Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family!  We will know more about this possibility of snow soon.

Gary

Me too, but its always possible as its in the 5-6 day range!

Well...

Snow in the forecast. It needs to happen

wow, I missed the forcast..where is this extra chance of snow coming from?  Obviously too early to think of accumulation huh?

Am I the only one concerned about this weather pattern right now? We have been high and dry for quite some time now... if we continue this pattern this winter, sure, we'll be cold (brutally cold at some times) - but will it snow? I don't see us getting more than 10" the entire winter if the LRC holds up to what we've been experiencing lately - even with a 3 day storm system thrown in, what's the worst it could give us? If it's too warm for this one storm... ice?

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How fast you forget what happened last year in November.  Warm and dry, one of our driest Novembers ever, and then stormy the rest of the winter.

Gary

Well, the NAM is still the same as earlier runs. : (

I would be thrilled if 2 inches of snow fell this weekend. i'm that hopefull. of course I'd be happier with a foot, but with this boring pattern we seem to be in. I'd be floored with 2 inches. I've been following the models and with the way they've been flip flopping around with every single storm that has showed up. I just can't and won't believe it until it actually happens.

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Hail Jonathan and everyone else,

Keep your expectations low.  Just think snow showers are possible. Try to stay away from getting your expectations too high on this.

The latest GFS shows the potential ending to the snowflake contest, but it is only Wednesday.  Look how much it has changed since yesterday.  Amazing....

Happy Thanksgiving!

Gary

Yep, the 18Z NAM has nothing at all for the weekend.


We shall see what the GFS holds here in about an hour or so.....

Well, GFS is comming out now.

Still holding true on 18z run.

Yes, the GFS(while completely different from the NAM) is still very intriguing for the latter part of the weekend..

WOW, latest GFS really lays on the precip.  It will be cold enough for snow, but I want to see the NAM catch up with the GFS before I start REALLY getting excited!

So did I look at the map right, is it saying sunday for snow?

Wow, look how excited everyone is over the (slim) prospect of 1 or 2" of snow in the Day 5 forecast...I wouldn't get my hopes up too much. I think this one doesn't get its act together until it is well past KC

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RDUB,

Exactly, and this is one of the problems. It will not reach peak strength here!  But, as the energy dives by it could still produce a nice band of snow.  Let's see if this trend continues.

Gary

Looks like the same from OCT. 6th:

http://tinyurl.com/5q8rm3

http://tinyurl.com/5t8acr

That would be around 54 days.

hmm... more researching to do...

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