NBC Action Communities

Looks like the same from OCT. 6th:

http://tinyurl.com/5q8rm3

http://tinyurl.com/5t8acr

That would be around 54 days.

hmm... more researching to do...

Then again.... Looking before Oct. 6th, it doesn't look the same....hmm....

Gary:

Good beautifull afternoon to you sir!! As I am sure everyone knows on the Blog, I am a snow and cold lover to the nth degree but man, today is just down right gorgeous-no wind-warm-man what a great day!! Got to get outside with the boys and even graded some essays outside on the patio-awesome stuff indeed!!

Thanks so much for keeping the blog updated today-I know you have to be pretty busy but the updates have been great!!!

Ok-I am going to go out on a huge limb here and probably really show why I should stick to Latin and History!!!

As Gary has stated emphatically and as Rdub also stated, this "storm" will not really get cranking until it is well East of Kansas City and I am even wondering if Lawrence is even too far west to see anything but a flake or two if anything at all. That being said, I find this turn today in the models to be fascinating and if indeed the energy does develop I think it is important for this part of the pattern this winter. I think (think being huge here!!!) it shows that even when we are in the NW flow we can still have some excitement. Further into the season these clipper type systems may be able to intensify just to our west and we could get some decent action-enough for sure to hold us over until we get some of the action breaking through from the SW. I think this will be fascinating to follow this weekend and just see how it all plays out-as Gary has stated emphatically, it is not what the models say, but what actually happens-this will be fun to follow to see how it all fits in with this year's LRC.

As far as the "storm" itself, I think it is telling that both the 12Z GFS and 12Z Euro today had similar ideas (I think??) the GFS closes it off a bit further west and south (but not quite west enough) than the Euro but they both have similar ideas. With the two major mid range models picking up on this today, I think is enough to warrant consideration that this flow will produce some energy. I think this is what I am seeing??

For me, the important aspect is that we may see some energy form in this NW flow even if it is going to really organize way too far east this time. It is still November and our average highs are still in the 40's so it is way early-but later into the season this energy could be really fun!!!!

I hope this makes a little bit of sense-as always, thanks for reading!!! Have a great night and a great Thanksgiving Day tomorrow!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

Good points and concerns.  It will be interesting to see if the trend continues tonight and Thursday. Just a bit farther west and a bit stronger then you won't be left out.  This is the trend right now.  Isn't it amazing how different it is from yesterday, which showed warm and dry weather for 15 days, to what we are talking about today.  It is what I expected, but so fast?  Maybe not this fast.  We are still waiting for our first dusting, so let's see how this looks on Thanksgiving Day.  I have the next two days off, but will blog in the morning on Thursday, a bit later than usual.  Jeremy will take over from there.

Gary

What's a measurable snow depth? Not asking for a forecast, just wondering, technically you could measure a dusting...

Bill, I find your posts entertaining as you put most items in pretty good layman terms, my fave as I'm a pretty poor weather person. My interests in weather tend to go off historical trends, it usually doesn't work, but hey it get's my brain working. :)

You are right! Today was an outstanding day, I had to work though... :/

I think this year could be a make year for LRC especially as the weather pattern seems far more complex this time around. Although I'm still somewhat unconvinced on the LRC (I'd like to see it put to the test in other global regions) I still believe it's a valid theory (recurring cycles do happen, regardless of what some people say) which requires more investigation and substantiation, and I hope Gary and his team continue to work on this (which we all know they will!)

H.

Gary,
I read/watch your winter weather predictions with great interest each year.  I use the highly scientific method of checking Persimmon seeds each fall.  I try to harvest 10 fruits from 10 different trees, and check the seeds from each to arrive at a weather guess.  If the seeds have spoons inside, then we will have snow.  If there are knives inside, we will have cold "cutting" weather.  Forks indicate a mild, open winter.  This year, I have found 70 spoons and 30 knives, with NO forks.  It sounds like my guess is close to yours, I just don't know when.  I enjoy your weather segments every night.  DT

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DT,

Thanks for the Persimmon seed forecast.  I was wondering what they showed this year.

Happy Thanksgiving.

Gary

I am no fan of the cold...or the heat for that matter!  I've lived in the K.C. area now for 11 years.  Of the first 7 or so, I can remember seeing the "first Robin of spring" in the late winter, say Feb.  The past 2-3 years the Robins wouldn't leave for the winter and they would be in our yard and at the feeder all season.  So I ask this question...WHERE HAVE ALL THE ROBINS GONE?  I haven't seen one for several weeks which  makes me wonder if this is going to be a humdinger of a winter.  Thoughts?

Still no idea on approximately what day/time this storm is looking to arrive, if it stays on course?  I know it's still early, but there has to be some indication if it's Saturday, Sunday, early or late.

Whats up Gary? I know your very busy but here's my ???? I will be in Quinter , Kansas (Far western Kansas)  this weekend Deer hunting. Any snow there. Thanks , and Hook'em Horns.

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There is a chance on Thursday, and then again over the weekend, but not much.

Good luck.

Gary

Latest GFS model continues what it earlier thought!

Snow Day
The 00z GFS hasn't come out yet.  I bet your looking at the 00z NAM model.  This model really hasn't shown much in the way of precip yet.  Hopefully it will trend toward the 18z GFS, and not the other way around.  By 10pm, we will be able to see this far out on the new GFS.  Hold tight.

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Doug,

It may not have had much precip, but it trended in the direction of the GFS and ECMWF models. We will know more soon, but we should all keep in mind that this is three nights away from developing.  This will provide us with 12 to 16 more computer model runs to see if the trend continues. 

Forecasting snow around our part of the world is tough all the way up to the last minute.

Gary

Of course it's going to snow on Sunday, and probably a lot. I'm supposed to leave for Texas that morning towing a boat, lol. It's ironic, because I am a snow lover, but it will mess up my vacation.

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Well, let's just wait and see.

Gary

Ohhhhhhh noooooooo!  We leave for Florida on sunday and while I am very excited for vacation I DO NOT want to miss the snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  We will be leaving on 11/30 at 12:25.  We will be back on 12/6 PLEASE let the snow hold off until then!  EVERYONE HAVE A VERY HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

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First of all, have a fantastic trip.  Secondly the timing of the chance of snow is early on Sunday, of course this is subject to change.  It is not a sure thing.  And, most importantly....if it does snow while you are gone this is a good thing.  Because it means that the weather pattern is starting to produce.

Gary

Again as I said above, I think this storm might be from around Oct. 6th or 7th

Pretty much status quo on the 00Z GFS. Still has precip for the latter half of the weekend, but it appears to be very light. I wouldnt be too worried at this point if I had holiday travel plans....

Just wanted to say happy Thanksgiving to all, and that any body that is in to the weather has a lot to be thankful for with this weather team!

Gary:

Good chilly morning to you sir!! Currently sitting at 21 degrees under crystal clear skies-another beautifull morning outside!! One of the interesting things about the past few days has been the optimal cooling conditions at night and then in turn the optimal day time heating conditions-our dew points have been so low that temps. can bottom out quickly-it cooled off so quick last night after the sun set-and then just how quickly temps. rise once the sun gets up-pretty cool stuff when you think about it!!

I still think that the most important aspect of this weekend is that the energy is there-granted, it forms way too far east for us to get into any good action but the fact that it is there I think bodes well for this part of the pattern later in the season. Maybe it won't do anything different later but the fact that it is there I think is cause for optimisim. looking at the Euro and GFS Ensembles I do think the energy will form so in the end I think this is a good sign. Just my humble opinion!!!

I might be way off base here as well, buit it looks like the GFS and Euro are beginning to hint at some SW energy trying to break through the flow in the longer range-something to watch-or am I just seeing things??? LOL

Well, the real reason for this blog was to wish everyone a happy and safe Thanksgiving Day-Nick hit the nail on the head-we as bloggers here should for sure be thankfull we have such a great place to discuss and learn about the weather and a group of meteorologists who help us learn so much-just awesome!!!!

Again, Happy Thanksgiving everybody!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

Our winter frustrations are building a bit, but we must remember it is still very early!  Happy Thanksgiving!

Gary

Well, I hope the GFS model trends turn around, not becuase I watn snow though.

By the way, Happy Thanksgiving!

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You too!  Have a great holiday.

Gary