I had this Thanksgiving 'weather' poem sent to me years ago. Not sure who originally came up with this...enjoy!
Thanksgiving forecast: Turkeys thaw in morning, warm in oven in
afternoon. Kitchen turns hot and humid. If you bother the cook, be
ready for a severe squall or cold shoulder. Friday and Saturday:
high pressure to eat sandwiches. Flurries of leftovers, turning to
soup Sunday.
I hope everyone is having a great Thanksgiving! Weather conditions really could not have been much better for everyone traveling across the area today and on Wednesday. The high of 56 degrees today made this the 28th warmest Thanksgiving on record. Nothing to write home about, but it was 10 degrees above average.
The main focus moving forward the rest of this weekend will be the ULL over the Southwest U.S. and also some energy diving in from the northern Rockies. Most of the energy with the shortwave in the Southwest will stay south of the area, but a small piece of the wave could bring us some sprinkles or light showers late Friday into early Saturday. There may even be some sleet, graupel, or a mix with this light area of precipitation.
Here is the 500mb map from the 18Z GFS showing the Southwest ULL #1 and the energy diving in from the northern Rockies #2.
In order to get more than just flurries we would need these systems to phase or come together very near or even a little west of Kansas City. This will not be the case this time around. Look at the 500mb flow just 12 hours after the map above.
Notice the vort max just west of Kansas City and the vort max near the western Gulf Coast. They are about to form into a storm, but very likely not in time for Kansas City.
Now here is the 500mb chart for 12 hours after the map above. A storm is finally forming, but well east of the area. We will likely just see flurries and snow showers from this storm. At this point trace amounts to maybe a dusting if it snowed hard enough for a brief time. But even the chance of a dusting seems pretty slim right now. If this changes we will let you know first.
Hopefully this helps everyone understand where the energy is coming from and where it will likely form into a storm by Sunday. If you have travel plans in the Ohio Valley, Southeast, or in the mid-Atlantic on Sunday keep this storm in mind.
After this storm clears by we'll see another cold day on Monday with highs in the 30s, but then downsloping winds quickly warm us into the middle to upper 50s on Tuesday. If the timing is perfect and there is sun all day 60 would be possible.
That's it for today. Make sure to stop back this weekend, we will keep you posted the next several days. Thank you to everyone who tuned in to see the winter forecast on air and on the internet this week. The response has been huge!
Jeremy