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Mixed Bag Ahead...Weekend Forecast

Watch NBC Action News HD at 5, 6, & 10 p.m. for the latest on our chances of rain, sleet, and snow this weekend!

Good Friday bloggers!  A lot of you are wondering about the forecast for the rest of this weekend.  We'll discuss that later in this blog, but I want to first update everyone on the radar trends for this evening if you have plans.

Overall, much of today in the metro has been dry, but there have been a few pockets of rain, sleet, and snow.  None of this has amounted to much, and most of the precipitation has been near or west of the state line.  This evening as the atmosphere saturates a bit more some of this could begin to push farther east.  Let's look at the radar from around 4 p.m.  I labeled the 3 main areas of precipitation with what I think is occurring.  The mixed area is likely rain, sleet, and snow.  The area of rain/sleet may be a little more rain than sleet.  If you have reports please post them to the blog this evening and all weekend long!  They really help us out!

I'm not expecting anything more than trace amounts to a few one hundredths of an inch of precipitation overnight.  Temperatures will remain above freezing so road surfaces would just be wet.

On Saturday a little dusturbance will move across the area producing light precipitation.  I think this will be a true mixed bag of rain, sleet, and snow.  During the morning I think it may be more sleet/snow before mixing with or possibly changing to rain by afternoon.  This should be showery stuff and not come down continuously all day.  With clouds around highs will be on either side of 40.

The ULL that is impacting us on Saturday is clearly shown on the GFS 500mb forecast map.  I labeled the Saturday disturbance #1.  And then upstream is the little wave(#2) that will bring us snow showers on Sunday.

In last nights blog I mentioned this may phase to produce a larger storm.  Right now it looks like that probably will not be the case.  Instead we get 2 little waves bringing us a chance of precipitation each day.

With colder air slowly dropping in the wave for Sunday should produce mainly snow.  Right now a dusting of snow looks possible.  Maybe a little more than a dusting in central Missouri.  Any accumulation will greatly depend on how hard the snow comes down.  As Jeff Penner likes to say it doesn't matter how warm the ground is, if it snows hard enough it will stick.  That also applies for road surfaces.  So while I am not expecting this to create major problems it may be a case where some of the heavier snow showers produce enough to stick on a sidewalk or road surface for a time.  Highs should be in the mid 30s on Sunday, so wet roadways will likely be the rule.  We'll keep everyone updated but right now I think enough snow to give some a dusting...not everyone...but some. 

Temperatures-wise both Sunday and Monday look cold with highs in the 30s.  We were the first station to discuss the big warm-up for Tuesday and it is still looking like at least 50s and maybe some 60s in the viewing area.  This will be a one day deal as a strong cold front drops temperatures back into the 30s on Wednesday.  The focus right now is on the rest of the weekend though. 

Make sure to tune into NBC Action News HD at 5, 6, & 10 p.m. today and again from 8-9 a.m. Saturday morning for the latest on precipitation chances and Kansas City's most accurate forecast.

I also changed LIVE:ESP over to winter mode for our newscasts so you can get a little better idea of where the rain, sleet, or snow is located.  Thanks for stopping by and make sure to tell your friends and relatives about us!  Have a great weekend!

Jeremy

Published Friday, November 28, 2008 4:12 PM by Jeremy WxPlus

Comments

 

Ipushsnow said:

Are you going to add more to the blog later? I know your busy , but you said "later in this blog.
November 28, 2008 4:42 PM
 

Ipushsnow said:

I was a little quick on my last post.
November 28, 2008 4:50 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

I'm crossing my fingers!! I saw some sleet this morning, and a little this afternoon. Been gone all day w/my mom shopping, It's nice to know what the kids get, just wish I knew what I would get for Christmas :)
November 28, 2008 5:11 PM
 

momof3 said:

Well we leave sunday morning so it will be nice to see a little winter weather before we go!  I will certainly miss seeing you guys keeping us updated on the weather.  I hope that there is nothing exciting while we are gone and look forward to lots of snow once we return!  Have a great week everyone!

***********************

The longer range GFS is finally start to 'fit'.  Have a great trip!

Jeremy

November 28, 2008 5:28 PM
 

marlina10 said:

I've been in Topeka today and we've been experiencing sleet mixed with rain all day long. Just not the kind of weather you want to be outside in!

***********************

Thanks for the update.  Enjoy your stay in Topeka.

Jeremy

November 28, 2008 5:43 PM
 

rusty1 said:

What do you think about next friday? I noticed you had a 20% chance of precip. and if you go back about 52 days we had a storm that produced an inch of rain here. Do you think based on the LRC that 20% will increase?

*********************

Good observation.  The tough thing about using the LRC right now is we have a good idea of the cycle...but really need another 2-3 weeks before we feel confident enough to give detailed forecasts based on it.  It is starting to help us out in the 5-10 day range, but there are still some things were are uncertain about.

With that said later next week it does look to become a little more exciting as the pattern begins to change.  Anything out 3 or more days with the GFS is questionable.

Jeremy

November 28, 2008 5:51 PM
 

chiefsfan said:

Good Evening Jeremy: So you said, you expect wet roadway and sidewalk, if did have one of them heavyier snow showers, would it melt off the surface rather quickly? Is it going to do this all day Sunday?

*******************

Whenever that second wave comes by we will see the best chance for snow showers.  Right now the best chance for a little heavier snow shower would be on the Missouri side for Sunday.

Jeremy

November 28, 2008 6:32 PM
 

lezakEF5 said:

I had a pretty good Thanksgiving, and it was pretty nice in the afternoon, that is a change from last year when it was snowing in the morning through early afternoon.

We had a white Thanksgiving/Christmas last year, and I figuered it wouldnt be out of the question for it to snow on Easter, but heck, it snow on April 12th, close enough...lol

No snow on Thanksgiving this year, but pretty close to it as there could be some snow tomorrow and Sunday. I am hoping for a white Christmas again this year with heavy snow on X-mas day!

I am here in Atchison, KS at my grandma's house, and as for a weather report today, there were a few sprinkles around 4:00, and that was all of the precipitation I saw.

Do you think Marceline, MO has a decent chance of seeing a heavier snow shower on Sunday?

Alex
November 28, 2008 6:52 PM
 

chiefsfan said:

 so you think here in the metro a dusting, mainly on grassy surface's?
November 28, 2008 6:58 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

Yes Chiefs, a dusting at the most.  The roads are too warm for this, and there isnt even enough snow to cover the roads.  
November 28, 2008 7:09 PM
 

Greg said:

Jeremy, what did you mean by "the longer range GFS has finally start to fit"?

*********************

The longer range GFS has more storms past day 7.  Once we get into the second week of December we expect the pattern per the LRC to have the potential for more storms.

Jeremy

November 28, 2008 7:13 PM
 

juba said:

We've had snow/sleet showers all day. What's virga?

*******************

virga is precipitation that evaporates before reaching the ground.

Jeremy

November 28, 2008 7:29 PM
 

Greg said:

I didn't get to see the winter forecast this past mon. I heard Brett Anthony didn't think we would have much snow at all this winter, is this true?

********************

I think the winter forecast is posted as a video link on our site and also look back to Gary's blog that he posted in regards to the winter forecast.  All of the details are there for you.  You'll have to ask Brett his thoughts on the forecast, not sure what he discussed on air.

Jeremy

November 28, 2008 7:48 PM
 

juba said:

Just sent to pics of an arizonia thunderstorm from earlier today to lezak@nbcactionnews.com, hope there good!
November 28, 2008 8:32 PM
 

radman22 said:

Brett said he is thinking 10-12" I believe.   The eastern ridge will rob us of moisture but give us the cold air most of the winter.... according to Brett.

I never did see what you thought Jeremy?  They said the 22-25 was the avg... did they throw Bretts out, or did someone think we would have 30"+?

Hope you had a great Thanksgiving Jeremy :)

********************

The winter forecast that was on TV is the forecast we base on the LRC and is our team's forecast.  I haven't talked to Brett about his forecast, maybe when Gary is off next Wednesday-Friday Brett will add some of his thoughts in the blog. 

With where the long term long waves have set up I believe the coldest air of the season will be northeast of our area, but we should be near or below average with temperatures.  In regards to snow probably in the 20-25" range like the forecast called for, but I could see it being closer to 20-22" if I had to narrow it down.

Like Gary mentioned by mid December we will be able to give a more specific outlook for the winter once the cycle is better defined.

Jeremy

November 28, 2008 9:15 PM
 

chiefsfan said:

 I have a feeling where gonna get hit with lot of snow Sunday
November 28, 2008 10:14 PM
 

bewild79 said:

what gives you that feeling
November 28, 2008 10:18 PM
 

chiefsfan said:

Jeremy just mention on 10:00 news that some latest is trying to bring more snow toward KC area

-----------------

The snowflake contest could end this weekend.  All it takes is 1 inch of snow to end the contest, and the GFS and Canadian models both predict this amount or even a bit more.  We will be going into much more detail on Saturday morning.

Have a great FRIDAY NIGHT!

Gary

November 28, 2008 10:27 PM
 

bewild79 said:

keep me updated please cuz my tv is being taken over by rock band lol
November 28, 2008 10:31 PM
 

rmoolla said:

i'm driving back from Dallas on Sunday. any idea on ho wmuch bad weather we'll encounter? 3 years in Kansas and still hate/fear the snow when i have to drive in it.
November 28, 2008 10:40 PM
 

bewild79 said:

so what time do the updated maps come out?
November 28, 2008 11:09 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

I am loving the forecast, so far!! A Dusting is fine, a inch is better, two inches to 8 inches plus is best. Hopefully later in the year we will get closer to that 8" mark. :)
November 28, 2008 11:18 PM
 

bewild79 said:

So its just a chance to have an inch and then maybe more?
November 28, 2008 11:43 PM
 

bewild79 said:

if I read the map right then it looked like they are calling for like 2 in. on the gfs on sunday am I right
November 28, 2008 11:46 PM
 

sweetness said:

Im thinking we will have a couple of inches just my thought but of course im wanting alot im 16 what do you expect?
November 28, 2008 11:46 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

holding my breath....
November 29, 2008 12:14 AM
 

billinlawrence said:

Jeremy:

Good chilly/soggy/snowy morning to you sir!! Yes-it is indeed snowing currently in SW Lawrence-there is a bit of rain mixing in at times but has gone over to all snow at times as well. It is indeed very lite, but there is indeed snow!!! Not much on radar this morning and looking at the soundings we are just barely able to get snow, but hey, it is snow!!!! Got my first run/bike in the snow for the season and it was awesome!!! For sure, this won't amount to much at all nor is it heavy enough to stick on anything and I would think that once the sun gets up this morning it will turn into all lite rain/drizzle but I got to see a real bonifide snow this morning so no complaints here at all!!!

I haven't looked at the models really yet this morning but tomorrow will be interesting to see what happens-I think the models will have some issues until probably the 0z tonight when they can finally get that energy ingested into them when it has formed in the lower 48. For me, just seeing snow this early in the season is great-dosen't matter if it accumalates or not-it is still so early in the season.

One other little interesting tidbit I have thought of that I think is correct: it is kind of interesting that the GFS had this lite precip. event from yesterday and today last Friday on the 12Z run then lost it for about 4 days and finally brought it back late Wednesday-it was actually showing this possiblity all week last week in various forms but then totally lost it for a spell-just interesting to see how complex the weather truly is.

Have a great day-I think I am going to follow tomorrow by radar, satelite, and soundings and stay off the models for this event-as a hobbyist, I have that luxury-I am sure you, Gary, Jeff, and Brett would love to do that at times!! LOL I still think in my very humble opinion that the most important part of this weekend is that we do indeed have energy forming in this NW flow part of the pattern-it may not organize at the right spot this time and may even have trouble all season with the location of the dominant long-term long wave trough to the east but at least the energy is there and gives us a shot during this sub cycle-if there was no energy here as the models showed Tuesday then I think one could really be concerned with the winter. If I am looking at things correctly-a big if LOL-I think the models in the longer range and even the model ensembles are beginning to show energy punching in from the SW-will be interesting to se how that all plays out!!

Have a great day!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

**********************

Bill,

Thanks for the report.  This is the kind of snow I like...you see it and then it melts when it hits the ground.  Kind of a weird week how we thought there might be something this weekend and for a couple of days it looked like it may be dry.  The key was the wave in the northwest flow, that was something that was never really showing up...just the shortwave over the southwest was in the model runs.

The 00Z GFS finally 'caught on' to the storminess that should develop about 7-10 days down the road.  The 6Z wasn't as stormy, but I'm sure since the active part of the pattern is a still over a week away this will change many times over.  I'm sure all the snow lovers will be happy by the time we reach Christmas...I think:)

Jeremy

November 29, 2008 5:29 AM
 

juba said:

IT's slushing outside, a half a degree colder and it'd be amix of rain sleet and snow, heavy.
November 29, 2008 6:05 AM
 

juba said:

Also it's 35 degrees near the JoCo Airport, where I live.
November 29, 2008 6:06 AM
 

hippygoth said:

36 outside on 63rd & SMP... Just drizzle right now, actually feels rather comfortable outside considering the time of year...

H.
November 29, 2008 7:05 AM
 

weathermom said:

is that littie batch off to our east going to get here and is it snow? will more form?
November 29, 2008 7:22 AM
 

juba said:

The snowflake contest could end this weekend.  All it takes is 1 inch of snow to end the contest, and the GFS and Canadian models both predict this amount or even a bit more.  We will be going into much more detail on Saturday morning.

Have a great FRIDAY NIGHT!

Gary
****************************************
Can you go into more detail now?

Very light snow and rain, slush acumulation on my deck earlier but melted.
November 29, 2008 7:34 AM
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