Watch NBC Action News HD at 5 & 10 p.m. for the latest on the wintry weather!
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11:15 p.m. update. Just drove home from the Plaza to Olathe. Wet roads, but there is a dusting of snow on grassy surfaces. Looks really pretty outside! The comma head formed which I showed during the newscast. This should provide us with light snow for the next several hours in the city. Snow showers still likely on Sunday. Overall probably trace amounts to around 1". This should occur mainly on grassy surfaces and the 1" total would likely be in the areas east and northeast of the metro. Probably a dusting to half inch in the city. An isolated spot or two in the advisory area could see around 2" of snow. Did get a report of a 0.5" of snow in Winston, MO which is in Daviess County. The snowflake contest will likely live to see another day!
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Good wintry Saturday bloggers! I wanted to update everyone on our developing storm that will bring the first accumulating snow of the season to some tonight and Sunday. I first want to mention that the NWS has issued Winter Weather Advisories for the following counties in our viewing area: Harrison, Grundy, Daviess, Mercer, Livingston, Carroll, and Saline.
Below, the infrared satellite shows the setup of our low pressure area and the developing comma head on the back edge. The 'L' on the map represents the position of the ULL. It is the back edge of the storm that will likely bring a majority of the accumulating snow to the area this evening and tonight.
Here are my thoughts on snow accumulations. Overall a slushy dusting to 2" still looks good. In the metro I just showed on air a half inch to up to one inch in the city. Certainly wouldn't surprise me if it is under a half inch though since the storm is just forming. Areas northeast of Kansas City will see higher totals of around 1" in Richmond to around 2" in Trenton. In general the Winter Weather Advisory areas could see 1-3" with the 3" amounts in an isolated spot or two. West of the stateline around Lawrence, Emporia, Hiawatha totals will be much less with a trace to a dusting possible. The snow will first stick on grassy surfaces, roof tops, and wind shields. And then as temperatures drop some could stick on the roads. Best chance of seeing some slippery areas will be on the Missouri side of the stateline. This is a tough forecast since the storm developed right on top of us and is strengthening right now.
Below is the latest RUC forecast for 1 a.m. Sunday morning. The ULL labeled #1 will begin to move northeast. But dropping in behind it will be ULL #2. This will continue our chance of snow showers on Sunday. As wave #1 move away overnight the snow may end for a few hours in the metro before starting up again on Sunday. So don't be surprised if a quick band of snow moves thru and then there is a little break overnight or early Sunday. Areas northeast of the metro likely won't see that break tonight.
I would put the odds of the snowflake contest ending tonight at 50% or less. Gary and I will be doing the measuring from this evening thru tonight. If the contest continues past Sunday the next best chance for it to end will be on Wednesday. That is also the day that Gary & Jeff picked for the first 1" of snow to occur. I picked December 2...a little early(or late depending on tonight).
If you are looking for some excitement weatherwise we are heading into a much more active pattern. If you remember back to the winter forecast when Gary showed the calendars, there were two destinct time periods highlighted as active periods. Period one was highlighted as starting on November 29...today. Welcome to active period number 1!!
In the week ahead there is one very mild day still in the cards. We talked about it first and nothing has changed. Still looking for temps well into the 50s on Tuesday, with some 60s not out of the question. But as quickly as the mild air moves in it will exit on Wednesday. A storm will likely develop nearby. This could bring rain or snow to the area, but without a doubt a big push of cold air.
Here is the 18Z GFS setup for Wednesday at the surface. Still a long way out, but Gary is scheduled to be off work that day...so it will happen:)
Enjoy the snow tonight and please post updates on the blog. If you have pictures by Sunday morning please send those to jnelson@nbcactionnews.com and I will do my best to post them on the blog and show them on air! We'll update the blog as needed the rest of tonight.
Jeremy