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Well Gary, got the old Get Smart again LOL!!!! I just posted in the previous blog-oh well-best to leave it there!!

Awesome pictures and what a great first snow of the season!!!

Have a great day!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

I am rather encouraged by the way this weather pattern is starting to "act".  I just expect everything will come together soon, and we will end up with an above average year for snow.  It was a nice first taste of winter over the weekend.  The 06z GFS was similar to the ECMWF showing Arctic air potential.

Gary

VERY Cute Pictures!!! I am encouraged by what seems to be higher snow totals for south of I-70 this year as opposed to last year. I will more than gladly pass the torch of "over 40 inches" to them and view it from afar. The .53 inches we got here North of Leavenworth was just perfect for me.
On a different note, I read an article yesterday that said there are no acorns this year, so I went out to my yard to look and sure enough, no acorns, I am wondering if anyone else noticed this? The Scientists thought perhaps to much rain, washed the pollen away, was the whole country above average for rainfall last year?

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I didn't know about the acorns.  Very interesting!  Have a great day.

Gary

Where'd you get the article boootz?

We did not have acorns either, I tried to do an internet search a couple of weeks ago and could not come up with anything!  Surely there is some reason!  We have lived in this house for 16 years and we have ALWAYS had acorns!

wow  you guys are right, we haven't had any either, come to think of it.  If you Google "no acorns this year" there's a few hits, including this one:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/29/AR2008112902045.html?hpid=topnews

Wow I didn't think there was enough snow to make a snow man. I need to tell me daughter sorry. lol. I just knew it was going to snow this weekend. I looked back in October and went forward. I even told my co-workers the same thing. Okay going out on a limb. snow on the 3 and 4 an then on the 5,and 6. just a guess. And of course on the 10th. I bet a good half a foot falls. That just sounds better than 6".  The storms on Wed. and Friday will not produce much. I am going to say that Wed. the snowflake contest will end. (darn the bad luck).  We should be nice and quiet around Christmas (right?) No bid storms until the first part of Jan. (I think). You can slap me if i am way of Gary! lol
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Let's just get a nice snow before Christmas!

Gary

When we were at Worlds of Fun in October we saw plenty of acorns that had fallen off the trees. In fact, one hit me over the head as it fell!

The squirrels have been rapidly packing away as many things as they can find to eat for a couple of months now. I don't know if the acorns had already been scoured clean or if it was the wet spring.

I did not see accumulating snow...but did see many snowflakes.....so I am happy!! I can not wait for out first big one though. On my way to work Friday night I drove in a wintery mix and then Saturday night I drove with snow falling....it was so pretty! I even had a hard time getting into my truck Sunday am cause my door was frozen shut, that was a pleasant surprise. :o) Our acorns fall onto out driveway so I am constantly having to sweep them off and they are normally crushed all over our drive...but not this year. I have seen or swept very few. The squirrels might go hungry this winter!! Poor guys!! Have a great start to your week everyone.
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

These are interesting comments about your acorn tally.  North of Maryville, I had tons of acorns that formed a tough carpet on the ground.  It was definately a mowing hazard!  As for the snow, much of it melted as it hit the ground and objects, but the storm picked up as the sun went down and we ended up right at 1 inch of measureable wet snow.

Ack, I can't remember what I put down for my 1" snow guess!  I think it was Dec. 5th.  LOL  I need to write these things down!

I had to drive straight through Iowa yesterday. That was probably the most nerve-wracking drive I've  been a part of. As soon as the sun went down, snow(not on the radar btw) began falling heavily. The roads started wet, but were soon treacherous. People would see someone in the ditch, and slow down, but sped back up. We watched a small white car fly past us and then about 10 seconds later, we watched them tumble into the ditch. People need to learn how to drive! We would occasionaly skid and we were going 30-35mph!
On a different note, I was very glad to see the snow on the ground. It puts a very festive mood in the air. I'm looking forward to our first 3-6" storm. When does the weather team guess our first big storm will arrive? Anything impressive on the models(in accordance to the LRC)?

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We think there will be two or three good chances this month of that snowstorm you are talking about.  It would be unusual for us to be hit by all of the chances, but at least one should have everything come together. 

We are glad that you made it through the slick Iowa roads safely!

Gary

Well it was a great first measurable for me this season with 2.1 inches falling here in Marceline!

About the acorns, I have noticed this as well, the deer have all been feeding in the fields this year, and not staying in the timber except to travel and bed down. Walking around the timber, there are just a few handfulls of acorns here and there.

I am hoping for a big snow right before Christmas this year, that would be nice.

Alex

I live in KC North, near Liberty, and had no problems with acorns.  In fact, I was digging some out of the ground late this spring that were sprouting mini-trees.

Okay, Gary, I KNOW it's 5 days away, but I was wondering what you are CURRENTLY thinking about potential icky weather late Friday night and Saturday. Most of my daughter's 3rd b-day party guests are traveling from out of town, a large group from Nebraska, and I'd hate for it to be ruined.  I wont hold you to anything you say today : )

We were in Nebraska this weekend and missed the first snow fall...while I dont like the snow when it messes up driving, it would have been nice to watch from home last weekend.

How is the Big 12 Title Game looking?  

Emmysmom you wont be able to tell any of that until Wednesday at least...the way things change so fast as you have seen the past week are a strong indication of stability.  

Heck, sometimes it can change the night before!  Even though it makes it frustrating for planning it also keeps things exciting if you are staying in.

Also, how snow does 1 inch of rain produce?

Hi Gary.

Glad to get a little taste of snow over the wknd.  Quick question for you.   I know there are several sites to go to that allow you to look at the various models.  I have never really found one that I like that well in order to look at the ecmwf.  The Euro just seems harder to depict than the others, especially when it comes to precipitation.  How do you gather precip data out of that model, and what site would you suggest we use to look at it?  

Thanks,

Matt

No acorns and a lot fewer squirrels at my place here in Independence. Until it was mentioned in this blog, I hadn't really noticed the lack of acorns. Then thinking back to cleaning the leaves out of my driveway.....I didn't have any acorns. I wonder if it has something to do with the April Deep Freeze of 2 springs ago.

This weekends snow was great! Had almost as much snow on the ground when I woke up Sunday morning as I saw out of any of the storms last year.......it almost covered the grass. I never got my grass completely covered last year.

I still think most of the snow misses us well to the north and west this year with the Kansas City area getting the   Rain, then dryslot, then backside flurries and wind.

OR we could end up with a number of Alberta Clippers that dump a quick inch then leave wind and cold. I just think it will be pretty dry around here but there will be some really great storms nearby......let's just hope they find there way here.

Kelly

First the bees disappear and now we have no acorns?  What is going on here?

Oh la la I am REALLY liking the powercast for Wednesday! Any accumulation estimate possibilities?

Okay, so I'm not jumping up and down with excitement over Wednesday's forecast, but I'm not freaking out (yet, lol).  
Any chance the warm temps tomorrow and the not terribly cold temps Wednesday help keep the pavement clean enough that there wont be a huge issue with the roads getting bad?  

Gary,
Sedalia did not get a whole lot of snow. Maybe a dusting at best but i know that in had no problems coming back to MIZZOU but i know some of my friends had problems coming from St. Louis. It took a few of the them 3-4 hours.
Looking at the future I am ready for an actual snow. I got jipped last year and want a good 6-8 inch snow. Bring it on.

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I am expecting everything to come together in at least one storm this month. So, there is hope, if you are a snow lover.

Gary

Information from the Missouri Department of Conservation regarding oak trees & acorns.
The 2008 Oak Mast Survey provides separate data for trees in the red-and white-oak groups. The distinction is important because the two families of oak trees produce acorns on different schedules.

Acorns from white oaks, such as the common white, bur, post, overcup, swamp white and swamp chestnut oaks, grow and fall to the ground in about six months. Those from red oaks, including the northern and southern red, scarlet, pin, water, cherrybark, shumard, blackjack, shingle and water oaks, remain on the trees for more than a year, falling to the ground in their second autumn.

This difference in fruiting habits creates a sort of dietary safety net for wildlife. If a late freeze kills all the oak flowers in a particular area, as it did across most of  Missouri in 2007, red oak acorns that began growing the previous year sustain wildlife that autumn. Red oak acorns are absent the following year, but white oaks fill the gap as long as freezing weather does not strike two years running.

This year’s oak mast survey showed combined red- and white-oak acorn abundance 17 percent above last year’s level, but 49 percent lower than the average since the Conservation Department began the survey in 1960.

Encouraged by abundant rainfall, white oaks produced five times more acorns than in 2007, when the Easter freeze zapped their flowers. This year’s white-oak acorn crop was 23 percent above the long-term average. However, this year’s red-oak acorn crop was dismal, the worst on record in fact.

The relative abundance of acorns from one or both oak groups exerts a strong influence on the behavior of squirrels, deer and turkeys. When acorns of both kinds are in short supply game animals shift their foraging activities to other food sources, such as hickory nuts and walnuts for squirrels and agricultural crops for deer and turkey. This year’s shortage of red-oak acorns is likely to cause all three species to congregate around white oak groves. Smart hunters use this knowledge to help locate game.

Very interesting stormlover. Thanks for the "Lesson of the Day."

So I guess the "Gary prediction center" has issued a "Macroscale discussion" on the issuance of a possible Arctic Air Watch? :)

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Nick,

Yes, but I haven't issued one yet.  This is really a very complex pattern, and we will know a lot more in another week or two.

Gary

Gary,
I just saw your winter forecast and it looks interesting for the eastern US!
I have family who still lives in the KC metro area, but what are your general thoughts this winter for south-central NH in terms of snowfall potential? We had around 115 inches of snowfall last winter season, and the average is between 60-65 inches.
Regards,
DRK

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I am expecting above average snow again this winter with the pattern we are in, this is for New Hampshire. 

Gary

I'm sure missing those first 5 days of the month...

Hey KansasPatriot a inch of rain equals 10'' of snow if i am correct. I seen it on another weather station so if that tells you something. I am really excited for Wednesday it looks interesting oh ya

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The ratio will most often be around 10 inches of snow to 1 inch of rain.  But, when it is colder the ratio can become as high as 20 to25 inches of snow to 1 inch of rain. We have this kind of ratio here in Kansas City when it is very cold, around 10 to 15 degrees outside during a snowstorm. It doesn't happen very often. 

Gary

There are lots of acorns in other countrys, just none in america. One place is in Lawrence, I saw lots of smooshed tiny ones there, at least theres some.

When will you discuss the snow possibilites for Wednesday and Friday?  I keep seeing snow in the 7 day forecast for these days but not much detail is being given.  Any ideas yet?  I am especially interested in Friday as we have a big family event at our church.  :-)

Well if one inch of rain equals an estimated 10 inches of snow then how come we only get around 20 inches for the winter? Heck, the kind of rainfall we had this year was steady and constant.  We had a few really wet months.  Does it have something to do with not as much warm gulf moisture and a totally different environment over the winter time?

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No, we get around 20 inches of snow, but also rain and other types during the season.

Gary

 
KansasPatriot,

Colder air can't hold as much moisture as warm air, and precipitation tends to "spread out" and "shield out" instead of consolidate into heavy-precipitation producing convection (like thunderstorms in spring).

"There are lots of acorns in other countrys, just none in america. One place is in Lawrence, I saw lots of smooshed tiny ones there, at least theres some."

???

Ah very interesting and makes sense.  Thanks f00dl3

With the storms forming right over us, are we going to see alot of trowal snows this winter?

If so, and we get a cut-off or slow moving low, things could be real interesting!

"The service effectively shut down operations on December 1, 2008. What few affiliates remain are currently receiving a computer-updated loop of satellite/radar images, current weather conditions and temperatures, and daily forecasts for major regions of the country." Wikipedia

Weatherplus.com is now weather.com

I wish NBC would put the Weather Channel as a replacement!!

So I missed the 10:00 news and there is no blog update.  What is the latest on the storm for Wednesday?  When should the mix start?  When will the snow start and end?  How much estimated?  Will the roads be cruddy?  Anyone?

emmysmom

http://www.nbcactionnews.com/weather/default.aspx


There is a video on the right side of the screen that they put on there in case you miss the news.  It isnt a storm Wednesday, if it was you would see some serious hoopla going on.  Roads will be fine, but as always use caution when weather like this comes through even in smaller amounts like what is forecasted Wednesday.

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You never know about the roads. If it snows hard enough there could be one bad hour on the roads.

Gary