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Gary:

Good chilly but ready to blow torch morning to you sir!!! The winds are already increasing here in SW Lawrence from the South and you can smell that southern warmer air already this morning!! Am I on the Mamba???

A couple random thoughts that as always, I hope make a little sense!!

1. One thing I think I have noticed is that the Euro and the 0z GFS Ensembles have a little bit stronger of a vort comming out of the SW tomorrow afternoon than does the 6z GFS operational run-I think it for sure really comes together east of us but I still think tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night could still be some what interesting-it looks like the front will pass through here by about 2:00 tomorrow and then that little vort from the SW swings through-I am probably way off, but there seem to be some hints that just maybe that piece of energy from the SW is a bit stronger than the operational GFS is showing at the moment. Finally, we did have a similar set up in early October to this and it took the models until about 24 hours to really pick up on it then.  Just a random obeservation I think I am seeing!!!!

2. One thing for sure, it is going to get really cold tomorrow afternoon-wowsers-one will go out in the morning in short sleeves and then by the afternoon will need full body armour LOL!!! Can't wait to follow this front tonight and tomorrow and one can see the wind shift line in the Dakotas already!!!

3. The 0z Euro, 0z GFS and the Gfs ensembles look really cold later next week-there is alot of agreement among the GFS and Euro for some really chilly/cold air next week as it looks like a trough may try to form over the central plains-again, I think I am seeing this correctly??

Have a great day-hold onto your hats-they will be in Nebraska before you know it!!!
As always, thanks for reading!!

Bill no Get Smart Today in Lawrence

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Bill,

I love your Get Smart comments.  Would you believe that it is going to snow on Wednesday?  Well, I would need you here to keep this Maxwell Smart statement going, as you say...."missed it by that much".   The front will blow through during the morning on Wednesday, and then will the band of precipitation be organized behind the front?  We won't really know for sure until we see it developing.  This could max out and provide around 1 inch of snow in a few spots by early Wednesday afternoon, but it would be way east of us by the end of the day, so the window opens for a very brief time.

Yes, Arctic air is showing up on all of the models you talk about.  Looking at the pattern in October there were two major set ups that I can see the pattern blocking up a bit and really putting us into the deep freeze.  So, confidence is growing that we are going to get blasted by Arctic air and then the games begin.  But, I am not 100% confident yet.  Maybe by the end of the week I will be.

Have a great day, oh, some of the ponds had their first ice formation last night.

Gary

What do I think?  I think your enthusiasm grows stronger everyday as the weather confirms your LRC.  Its not a bad thing.  Just something I have noticed over the last few years.  Every year about this time your enthusiasm gets a little stronger each year and so does your confidence.  Hopefully some time in the near future your accuracy will have an impact on the mathematicians that make the algorithms for the computer models.  Until then we will just have to take them for what they are, "models".  What is the average arrival date of arctic air masses for the KC area?

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Great question!  I don't think anyone has ever asked for an average date of the arrival of the first Arctic air mass in Kansas City. I am just going to guess an average date of December 15th.  Some years it happens as early as the first week of November, but most often it is close to that first day of winter.

And, yes confidence grows every year on the LRC.  One of the biggest dilemmas is the fact that even though I believe the pattern is set and cycling, forecasting what the LRC is very difficult.  And, by mid-December we just know so much more and then shortly thereafter we can start making much more accurate forecasts.

Gary

I won't wait for your Artic Blast warning to use this beautiful day to ensure that all of my outdoor animals are properly protected from the weather. Least we forget our faithful furry friends, this is a reminder to bed down those dog houses with some cedar shavings, available at most farm supply stores or feed stores, throw an extra fuzzy rug into the barn cats house, drag out the horse blankets and make sure they're in proper repair, fill the bird feeders, throw out a lil feed for the squirrels and make sure any other livestock, specially young animals have at least a wind break. While I am at it, I believe I will check my truck's anti-freeze, fill the windshield wiper fuild with de-icer, find my snow scaper and pack my emergency kit . All simple and small reminders but I bet at least one of us doesn't do it, and will wish we had. Anyone else have any suggestions on what they do to get ready for the winter season?

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Good question!  I may even put up some holiday lights later this week.

Gary

I picked December 12th for the snowflake contest...I hope it does not happen tomorrow. Maybe with the potential for artic air will come moisture too..... a girl can dream about that jewlery, right?? :o)  Have a great day!!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

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Monica,

Look at that map I posted.  December 12th could be it.  The chance of getting one inch of snow tomorrow is still small.

Have a great day!

Gary

I would love to know how many people (besides you and Jeff Penner) picked December 3rd for the snowflake contest! If there aren't too many, would you put the first names and the times that everyone picked?

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There are probably around 50 or 60 people.  I will check today when I get to work.

Gary

I picked Dec. 3rd. I just don't remember the time I picked. I always pick the same day for some reason. I think I picked 7 A.M. so if we get the 1 inch and I go over the time am I doomed to being so close but yet so far? Keeping my fingers crossed....

An interesting PIREP from KCI, had observed winds of 45 KTS at 1000 ft AGL out of the SW. That's impressive!

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Yes, and it will be quite breezy this afternoon.  Will the short daylight length limit our potential warm-up though?

Gary

I plead for some insight...where in the 50-52 day pattern was there such a drastic dropoff in heights as experienced the past few days?  We are talking about a 40mb drop in 500mb heights.  The only date that this happened was on the Oct. 19-23, 38 days.  50-52 days ago, it was only a slight oscillation, followed by the big drop.  
I still believe that the 38 day trend deserves a closer look.  It would still validate the arctic blast in 10 days (Dec. 13th), but it also brings in some warm temps in between then and now.
I plead for some insight.  Everything makes sense in my skull, but I need an outside opinion.  Give, give.
BAClair

Do you have a timeframe of when this is LIKELY to start and stop?  I saw yesterday -- I think it was your forecast -- saying around 10:00 ending around 3:00, but then on another newscast today it looked like arriving around 10:00 and not getting out of here until 5:00 or so.

Also, when it first comes through, is there a high chance it could be more than just rain then snow...I have a doctor's appointment at 10:00 then have to come downtown to work, and am a little nervous about the road conditions around 11:00. If its just wet, I can definitely deal.

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The latest data barely has any snow or precipitation forecast at all.  At the most it will be around a 3 to 5 hour window of opportunity for precipitation near the middle of the day Wednesday.  It is really something we will have to track as it develops Wednesday morning.  So, I wouldn't worry too much about this at the moment.  If it really maxed out we could see one to two hours of significant snow where there is minor accumulation, but even this seems like a slight chance.

Gary

For the bloggers,

You should check out Lrcweather.com and register.  There are some interesting blog posts and maps on there dealing with the set up for this winter.  I find it educational!

Saved or it didn't happen!

http://photos-d.ll.facebook.com/photos-ll-snc1/v1077/73/61/508280943/n508280943_2154155_6161.jpg

GFS "fantasy" artic blast & winter storm.

lol. thats on my birthday

Wikipedia
"The Weather Channel will replace NBC Weather Plus on the approximately 90 digital affiliates that carried NBC's service."

Does this mean anything to us Over the Air receivers?

I don't like that idea cuz I don't like TWC.  They should replace everything with Gary and the team!! =)

Gary,

What do you think about the snow tomorrow for Lee's Summit?  In my snowfall forecast that I sent out to our staff members had the metro in the FLURRIES - DUSTING range, and 1/2" - 1" to the north of Kansas City.  Is this about right?  I looked at the NAM and thats what I took from it.

Did I see right that the temp is going to be above freezing while it is snowing?  I have to drive home from work and don't do so well in bad conditions and I guess I am just trying to make myself feel better....will I need to go home early?  =) (wouldn't mind that! lol)
Becky

---Long blog entry alert---

4caster,

I am going to take a stab at your question.  I have had a bit of time to research your thoughts, and find them very interesting.

First, let me address your 50-52 day question.  Conventional wisdom would suggest a numeric approach to measuring the LRC.  That is to say, taking data readings from one or more places should suggest in a graphical or statistical form that the cycle can be validated.  I have wrestled with this for quite some time.

I having taken this method, I have found that there are many times that I can show visual correlation, but have not yet been able to meet the 95% confidence level typically needed for statistical validation.  I feel there is another way to represent the LRC and its components.  This is something I am deeply researching and starting to construct a framework.  We will be exploring this more on lrcweather.com

Specific to why you don’t see the pressure drop, I would need more information from you.  I presume you are measuring from a single point for this assertion?  If so, I would offer the fact that while the pattern is cycling, the jet location and seasonal changes will affect the locations from a latitude perspective of where those drops may be.  

As an example, if a large ULL in a prior cycle crossed the Canadian border and deepened near the same longitude near KC, the pressure differences would be greater near the ULL in Canada, and less near KC.  The second time around as the jet has strengthened [or weakened if we are thinking Spring to Summer], the same ULL may pass very near Kansas deepening in the same trough long wave.  This time around, the pressures may be much lower near KC and less near Canada.  This would represent the same longitude but different latitude.

Based purely on the numbers, it would not represent a match, but visually, one can see that it was the same part of the pattern.  To this end, the LRC is much more than one event or storm, rather the flow from sub-pattern to another in a unique and sequential manner making up the entire pattern.  As that main pattern repeats, only then can the cycle be identified.  Adding into this is understanding the long term longwaves, and seasonal jet behavior.

Does this make sense?

The questions you ask, I have asked myself, and have done extensive research to put these questions to rest in my own head.  I agree in a traditional method, things don’t seem to add up, but would offer the fact that there are other ways to represent the LRC where it DOES line up.

In looking at your proposed 38 day cycle, I do not see a match at the 500mb level.  It doesn’t take long beyond the last week to see where the comparisons are completely out of sync.

I presume you are looking at the surface in measuring this, as I recall you having mentioned that previously.  Having spent quite a bit of analysis at the surface, this idea intrigued me to check.  In doing a graphical display of 38 days using KMCI data for both mean surface temperature and pressure, I did see a trend.  I am not sure what this represents, or how long it will persist, but I will agree with you it seems that there is something there, and certainly, something to consider.  

Because the surface is driven by upper air patterns, I could think of situations where surface data may reflect a value with completely different set ups aloft.  I think this is possible in what is being observed in your analysis, but will continue to monitor it to see if it breaks down as the cycle continues or if there is something else there.  

This line of thinking will continue my research of how to reflect the LRC at the surface.  Because of the methods and relationships at the surface having different yet related correlations to the upper air, this will continue to be a complex endeavor.

I am very hopeful in the efforts ongoing to provide better evidence of the LRC.  I have several concepts and tools that seem to align with this type of scenario.  I hope to have something out on our site regarding this so that all who are interested may assist, construct, de-construct and collaborate to further this effort.

;-)

Is this strom related to the October 12-15 storm? Where we got over an inch of rain and the temps really went down. Just wanting to know if I am looking at this right. Yes I know it really isn't a storm. LOL

With the latest NAM data, I'm thinking it's safe to say that we will not get more than flurries with no accumulation at all - not even a dusting - tomorrow.

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Well, that would be if the NAM is exactly right.  Yesterday's NAM had about 1 inch.  So, yes the model says no more than a dusting if that, but it won't take much for one hour of snow to get everyones attention.

Gary

Well the southwesterly winds have smashed the snow, but the drop in the ride is coming again fast, off to look at the new NAM!

Any chance for more than an inch of snow with this snow tomorrow? Im from blue springs and you guys pretty much hit the nail on the head when you said we would get about an inch with our snow over the weekend, so I'm hoping for more snow this time!