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Do you think 2-4, maybe 5 inches could be a possibility across the viewing area?

Alex

Jermey, Sounds like your not to excited about the Monday night storm. Do you think it will miss the metro completely , or just not give us much?

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I think we will see something, but way too early to get into too much detail.  Also, with a freezing line close by that may be a concern for precipitation type at the start.

Jeremy

I predict about .50-.75 at the news office

A lot of cold air around, but not a lot of moisture. Could this be a sign of drier than normal winter possibly? When do you think the gulf will open up? If it does, will the cold air still be around? Lots of questions...

I will reserve comment until the 0z.  Things are trending better, but still wonder if the trough axis is still too far east.  

My thinks I see it wanting to cut off more and more...

Good Evening Jeremy: Do you think it's still possible the storm on late Monday and Tuesday could miss the metro altogether, I know it's early and anything is possible, Is this a BIG storm that is showing up? Thanks and have a great evening!!!

It seems to me that the pattern that's developing this year is " The storm will develop east of the viewing area"

I have pushed snow for 14 years, and the one I've learned is that you don't count on it until it is done:)

wow I just checked denver forecast for sunday and it looks like they will have highs in the 50's on sunday for the chief's game that is kind of warm for them in december.

Scott, is that a good thing for us snow lovers?...the "wanting to cut off more and more" thing.

For some reason this winter weather pattern reminds me of something that could easily transform into a ice storm...

http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/2002/20020128-20020203.djvu

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_000l.gif

Just out of randomness compared surface maps from Jan 28 2002 to today, and while the 500 is off, the surface features are sort of similar.

Maybe. Who knows. Just killing time looking at weather maps :-)

Ya, ya
There'll be a big hype for a blizzard and one day before it's supposed hit we'll find out that it'll only be a dusting, if that. Same as always.
Haha sorry to be negative.

i agree... It seems to me that the pattern that's developing this year is " The storm will develop east of the viewing area"

"It seems to me that the pattern that's developing this year is " The storm will develop east of the viewing area"

Parts of the cycle, this is true.  Other parts like...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20081023.html  or
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20081106.html  or
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20081111.html  

developed just over us or just to the west as they passed by.  We will have to watch these parts of the cycle.

;-)

scott, ill take the completely cutoff nov 6th storm please....but a few hundred miles further south.  Its in the right spot longitudinal wise.  there may  be something to this lrc theory...aside from the obvious natural oscillations of various weather features worldwide. rant coming...

the thought that latitude could perhaps play a part in determining phase length could be a huge advantage.  one must ask, what is a major factor in determining how the jet acts upon the whole earth? what is the whole reason there is weather on earth in the first place? the sun.  what if you calculate the the longitudinal wave heights and put it into a function with the amount of sunlight that will hit that given area of land in a given wave length.  as the seasons come and go, so does the amount of light-predictibly.  the light predictibilty is especially great because not only is it one of if not the biggest factors in the whole worlds weather, but it also allows us to know the latitudinal angle with which the suns light shines on the earth exactly-well, down to the minute atleast.  thus, the amount of light within the wave heights can be quantified.  with a relatively small amount of sample data, you could breakdown how much shifting in the longwaves  is taking place with respect to the sun angle.  

think of it this way.  take a globe of any sort, tilted the normal 22 degrees on its axis.  shining a flashlight on it represents the height of these longwave features.  as the seasons pass the earth oscillates moving the flashlight up and down a specific amount of area.  it would greatly increase confidence in determining cycle lengths being able to  figure out how long the rotation of the jet took at multiple latitudes.  it would become especially handy when new seasons at similar sun angles occur...such as springtime.  

sure the sun isnt the only thing affecting placement of the jet.  the oceans play a huge part as well...along with other smaller impacts.  however, correlating one oscillation to another is the best way to increase confidence on height vs. time.  think of it as being able to identify the turning points on the graph(which is the jet on a coordinate plain, aka earth).  whenever someone figures out a way to quantify ocean currents down to the minute like the sun, then you add a third variable which would give you an even better idea of whats to come.  in the meantime nothing is lost from using sun angles to help identify cycle lengths down to their actual mean, maximum, and minimum wave heights...quantitatively! not only that but you could issue a forecast down to an actual standard deviation.  given the current acceptable standards in weather forecasting that is quite amazing...groundbreaking!

So, am i brilliant? or just crazy? perhaps i am leaning towards mad as in mad scientist.  

speaking of crazy...if anyone is interested, just ask and i will explain how we could also use that data i have just spent forever talking about to guess rather accurately certain lengths of ocean cycles as well.  its really quite simple...in theory...since it would require substantiated theoretical data to prove.  if only i had the means to substantiate the theoretical data...all i need is a computer that can save and measure frame by frame distance down to statute miles  given a certain amount of time.  another program to graph my collected data and it would be good to go!

pvt_murphy..... I agree with you completly. Ocean currents and the earths axis. I think the we need to think more globally.

pvt_murphy,

Interesting but don't forget to take into account the butterfly wing flap in Indonesia that a month later, causes a blizzard in Kansas.  M

oh yeah...well, if you take into account all the worlds butterflies and the wind that is generated from all of them flapping their wings at once...you may be able to determine how fast the greenland ice sheet is melting.  how bout them apples?

I am going to go with 2.3 inches here in Marceline on Monday...Just a guess

I missed the forcast this morning can anyone update me?  I was hoping to read in the blog but I guess they are busy....thanks! ************** The blog was updated last evening. Really nothing has changed between then and now. We'll update things after all the new data has rolled out this afternoon. Jeremy

thanks jeremy...i was not sure since i did not get to watch this morning

Pvt Murphy...that was quite a display of scientific insight for a Friday!  You may be on to something.  However, I think I'll go with the butterfly theory for now since I used most of my brain cells earlier in the week.

Looks like Scott was right about the cutoff low and trough axis when I glanced at the GFS 0Z and 6Z.  I'm still not too excited about the snow chances in the near future or the entire winter for that matter.  I earlier "predicted" 12"-16" for the KC area for the winter and I think that could be closer to 10"-12" out here in Topeka.

Of course I would love to be wrong and get lots of snow so I'll keep the faith for now...Mike  

I don't understand why you guys (the weather folks) start getting us all jazzed about snow storms then when it comes down to it, you haven't info to confirm it. I always hear the same thing weeks before " Potential snow storm heading this way" then within days, its always "it is to early to tell" Why get those of us who are excited about the snow excited about something that can't be confimed. it is disappointing

One thing that Gary was mentioning is how if this Monday storm system tracks to the south of us, that based on the LRC the plains Blizzard of late October may track right over us. Latest GFS is hinting at this - but not as a snow producer. With the climatology of mid to late December, artic air rarely settles in well at the surface. I tend to believe the 12z GFS run - I know I shouldn't this early - but it looks "do-able". I think the same storm that gave South Dakota/North Dakota a blizzard, could easily give us a severe weather outbreak when it digs on by.

This pattern is very similar to weather patterns that give Kansas City winters with 6.5" to 8" of snow for the entire winter.

It sounds like a lot of you do not believe the winter forcast.  

f00dl3,

   Are you talking severe weather outbreak in December, or when the pattern repeats itself in the spring?

No that its out of the realm of possibility, but any outbreaks in december are usually confined to the deep south and southeastern states...

"This pattern is very similar to weather patterns that give Kansas City winters with 6.5" to 8" of snow for the entire winter"

Or from just one storm  ;-)

Well if anyone is worried about the lower snow amounts, believe me I love snow and it worried me some too.  In fact I am a fan of snow that shuts down cities. That is the kind of snow I love.  It is hard to move back to Kansas City from Colorado and get what we get here after being used to the great snows at 7,000 ft.

However, this is the city of surprises when it comes to weather!  It is slowly poking at us saying hello we are on the way. (the snow that is).

I a waiting until December 20th to believe any predictions as more stable.

What happen with all the maps on the weather page? Looks like the computer is acting up?

I kind of like those maps on the weather page. Next week will be in the 80s and 90!

lol yea

I kind of like those maps on the weather page. Next week will be in the 80s and 90!

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I had next week in the snowflake contest, I guess that takes me out of the running:(

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Umm, most of us live in the midwest.  There hasn't been a hurricane here for millions of years. :&[

HOLY HEATWAVE JEREMY!!!
Are we hurtling for the sun!!!!!!!!
What does this mean for the LRC?:)

Awwww, now I like that kind of 7 day...Time to BBQ :)

Does this mean that we are going to have hurricane rapped with snow next week. I better rush out and get me some. I can put them on my vacation homes in Florida all six of them! lol

Nice to see that some spammers have found the community.

Sweet! I love next weeks forecasted temps!! Time to reopen the pool!! :-)
Audra

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I guess the computer got a little cold overnight and froze up!  I'll take a look at that.  You know I'm working when the forecast is cold, but the imaginary forecast is warm:)

Jeremy

Well - not to support the advertiser or anything - but we do occasionally get squall lines that produce hurricane-force winds, along with tornadoes and the occasional microburst. While not as likely as a tornado/squall line/etc..., it is possible for a blizzard with hurricane-force winds to impact the region as well.

pvt - I will have to think about that.  Interesting.  I will put that in my research bucket with another item I am currently researching.

In a bit of re-analysis, I am liking what I see recently in models.  Its nice to see what you expect.  LOL.

EGAME - your post validates a blog I wrote today about modelitis.  It is rampid this time of year!  

MikeL - don't give up hope yet..the next two weeks will be very telling.  ;-).  Based on behavior with the mid month storm, may lend further confidence to the late month storm.  

Yes, this is vague but I am thinking there will be two larger Plains storms before the end of the year.  I may go out on the limb tomorrow and give details to dates and behavior/impact.  Perhaps I will take a shot at January as well.

Here we go....
;-)

Jeremy - based on your forecast glitch, perhaps modelitis is running rampid?  I guess more specifically..wishcasting.  Ha.

LOL

Please do Scott. That would be awsome.

Darn. Now next week's seven day forecast is back into the 30s and 40s. How quickly the Missouri/Kansas weather can change ;-)

18Z NAM is much stronger, slower and warmer with Mon/Tues. storm system.

Will be very interesting if the GFS trends this way as well. If this trend were to continue, it would seem precip type would be a big issue across the metro area.

Would be very interested to see what others (Scott, etc.) feel about this run of the NAM....

Why you can't trust computer models that much:

DD/HH Model Precip Snow Ice Description
05/00 GFS 0.25/0.50 1.0-2.0 None Low tracks south bug gives KC some light snow Tuesday.
05/06 GFS 0.10/0.25 0.1-0.5 None Low tracks south giving KC light rain changing to flurries Tuesday.
05/12 NAM None None None Low tracks farther south, more compact, and faster.
05/12 GFS 0.25/0.50 1.0-2.0 None Low still tracks south but hits KC with wrap-around light snow Tuesday.
05/18 NAM 0.50/0.75 None 0.25-0.50 Low tracks favorable. Starts out as light rain, changes to moderate freezing rain. 500 temps still above 540 but surface temps below freezing.

F00dl3,

I completely agree with your point.

However, with that said, as it gets closer to the event, I think more weight should be carried with more "recent" runs, as that is typically the way it is going to trend.

Maybe a little wishcasting on my part, but I do agree with your point to some degree...

f00dl3..

I'm not reading it quite the same as you, or at least in regard to the 18Z NAM.  I see precip amounts the same as you, but I see it all as rain with no ice through 84 hours.  See link below..

http://www.wxcaster.com/CONUS_MESO-ETA_WINTER_CRITICALTHK_84HR.gif

Matt

 kcwxguy -  I'd be interested to read that blog you reference.  I am just disappointed about all the hype regarding snow storms and when it comes down to it, they can't be forcast until they are upon us so why get people excited about something that, until it is here, is a 50/50 (or in this case, 30/70) percent chance of happening but  is talked about as if it is a "for sure" in the weeks leading up to it, Then when the time to confirm it comes we hear "to early to tell" and often the snow doesn't come .........I love snow and I love the kind of storms that shut down the city.  Winter is my favorite and least favorite time of year.  It is the time of year when I am most disappointed because of the set up and let down of forcasts for snow .
BUT Gary is my favorite metorologist in this or any other City and I enjoy the input all the bloggers have.  

05/18 NAM 0.50/0.75 None 0.25-0.50 Low tracks favorable. Starts out as light rain, changes to moderate freezing rain. 500 temps still above 540 but surface temps below freezing.

Hopefully This one Plays Out. Ice Ice Baby