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So this has the potential to be a big storm? Blizzard?

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner

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Chfs,

Just a heads up this winter if you want to discuss storms we welcome your comments and forecasts.  But continuing with the same ice storm comments from last year that were common on the blog will not be accepted this time around.  This is a place to share thoughts and ideas, but not a place to make others worry or provide misleading information.

Jeremy

remember its still 4 days out dont count your chickens till there hatched. :)

storm a brewin and then we get a dusting.

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Could be a dusting, nothing, or several inches.  With rain, sleet, mix, and snow in the forecast anything is possible this far out.

Jeremy

Has anybody ever heard of Free-to-Air TV? (FTA)

Ok Andrew, what does that have to do with weather?

I was looking at some old pictures earlier.. Last year on Dec. 11th we had snow on the ground and had an ice storm the night or day before. I have pictures of my driveway being a large sheet of ice and the trees coated in ice. Thought you would find it interesting what a difference a year makes.
Audra

I was looking at some old pictures earlier.. Last year on Dec. 11th we had snow on the ground and had an ice storm the night or day before. I have pictures of my driveway being a large sheet of ice and the trees coated in ice. Thought you would find it interesting what a difference a year makes.
Audra

I know it doen't have anything to with weather, I just want to know if anybody has FTA or knows anything about,

Guys, when has a snow storm that showed up 4 days in advance actually happened? Everyone knows that real snow storms show up about 12 hours out, the 4 day out storms turn into 65 degrees and rain.

*******************

There's a first time for everything:)

Jeremy

Bring on the snow, just leave the ice (ugh) out of here.  Don't want to get my hopes up just yet, but it is that time of year!!

Wouldnt there be a good chance of some freezing rain with this before it turns over to all snow?

Lol Jeremy. Keep your shorts on

Hope that us to the south get in the action this year, unlike the last!! We should start hearing from Brent before too long!

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Brent stopped yesterday and helped us out because we had accidentally left out the snow on the web weather for Tuesday.  The auto update occurred right when we were updating the icons:)  Brent is excited for snow to say the least.

Jeremy

I got home late and missed the 6:00 news. Something must have changed since Bret said around 6a.m. that the storm did not look like anything big. Are you guys on the same page? this is the first time I can recall that you guys having completely diffrent forcasts.

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I don't think our forecasts have been too different.  His precipitation chances were the same we had Thursday night.  Even the 12Z models didn't have the storm as slow as the current runs do.  So I think we have been on the same page.

Jeremy

0Z NAM trending even warmer, and slower for the first of the week storm.

Not good news at all for snow lovers.....

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Unless the ULL strenthens more and becomes negatively tilted and continues to slow.  This would keep steady precipitation around longer and probably draw in more cold air.  The NAM has been the warmer model for the past couple of days.  The GFS seems to be doing a little better in the 3 days in window right now.

Jeremy

Ipushsnow,

the reason  for the difference in forecasts is most likley due to the 12hours in between. alot can change in a short amount of time

I was just going by what they both said. Don't get me wrong, this weather team is the only ones I listen to. I just hear it go from good chance of ending the snowflake contest todosn't look vary strong to may be a big storm within 18 hrs.

Ha.  This will be very interesting to watch.  Things are starting to come back into line a bit.  Still a bit of work to do, but a much better picture than the models were even showing yesterday.

Simply amazing.

I belive in the LRC , and really glad I've started checking out this blog. It is a great place to learn about the weather. I just was a little baffled by what I was hearing.

Jeremy,

Do you think the dynamics could be there for freezing rain during the transition to snow or is still too far out?

I guess its like you said, anything is possible right now.

(BTW, I am not hoping for freezing rain or an ice storm)

Alex

"But continuing with the same ice storm comments from last year that were common on the blog will not be accepted this time around."  Jeremy

Oh, Thank You!!!  I soured on your blog last winter when the Ice Storm freaks kept wishing for massive disruption and destruction and you guys kept letting them post.  It was very annoying and distressing.  

***********************

If people give a reason for forecasting an ice storm that is fine, but to continually cheer them on to scare or disrupt the blog community is not acceptable.

Jeremy

Well Jeremy....

I choose N/A

0z gfs looks promising.  if it can get a little colder and transition to snow sooner we could be looking at a doozy(at this point).

And let the drum roll continue....

The GFS continues to advertise a much stronger storm, with far greater "wintery" potential...

Question is, will this thing cut-off????

:)

Jeremy,
wow the 00z data is very interesting. i love watching these storms evolve. ;)

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The GFS continues to be a colder model run.  Both GFS and NAM are slower though.  So much of what we see could occur on Tuesday.

Jeremy

;-)  Looks better.  As advertised  

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Reminds me a bit of October 22:)

Jeremy

Well it sounds like I may not be working on Tuesday cuz I dont drive in that stuff....

o yea and I dont remember what happened oct 22 can someone refresh my memory...thanks

   What it look like were gonna get snow, not doubt about it.

Jeremy. I Will Ask this in a Question regarding this Storm System. Do you think that there with the Rain/snow Mix. That there could be a band of Sleet that comes in with that. Or not

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There will be a mix at some point.  But it may mix quickly and then change to snow.

Jeremy

Becky ... big rain ... this is from the NWS climate section:

OCT 21

LOCATION                HIGH    LOW      PRECIP
ST. JOSEPH               59      44       0.84
DOWNTOWN KANSAS CITY     61      48       0.34
OLATHE NEW CENTURY       59      49       0.38
OLATHE JO CO EXEC        59      47       M
LEES SUMMIT              59      47       0.28
KIRKSVILLE               58      34       0.46
SEDALIA                  62      48       0.03
CHILLICOTHE              60      42       0.58
NWS PLEASANT HILL MO     59      49       0.43


OCT 22

LOCATION                HIGH    LOW      PRECIP
ST. JOSEPH               55      44       1.54
DOWNTOWN KANSAS CITY     61      48       1.88
OLATHE NEW CENTURY       59      43       1.67
OLATHE JO CO EXEC        58      43       1.27
LEES SUMMIT              57      46       1.65
KIRKSVILLE               56      44       0.37
SEDALIA                  66      47       0.05
CHILLICOTHE              57      46       0.16
NWS PLEASANT HILL MO     57      45       1.54

You can pull an amazing amount of reports from this link:
http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=eax

I picked tuesday for the contest....lets go snow!!!

Very much so. Both GFS tonight give me about 1-5" of snowfall up here in Nebraska.

GGEM doesnt look good for you guys;

http://meteo.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/c48_50.gif

Total snow by 12Z Wed from Earl Barker's site based on tonight's 0z GFS: http://tinyurl.com/5docxy

It's gonna be fun to track this!

chfs ... check this from Earl Barker's site. Looks like sleet is part of the GFS forecast as well as snow.

http://tinyurl.com/64j8lt

3-4" of snow up here in Omaha! That would be great!

http://meteocentre.com/archive/weekmodels/5_ecmwf_amer_12_panel.gif

Euro just barely south of KC. Would gives areas of Nebraska and Iowa a Snowstorm.

Thanks Rick

Here is a neat snow statistic link from the NOAA

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=kcwinterstats

That is a cool site, I rember alot of those storms since 1993.

Hmmmm sounds exciting...but I am going to wait untill the end of the weekend and see what this looks like....

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That is some good advice.  The 12Z NAM wasn't very good for snow lovers.

Jeremy

Jeremy,

What's is like for you guys when you know (via the LRC) a storm should be brewing around a certain time-frame, and then see the weather models finally start to fall in line with it?

Good Morning to The Weather Team!!! Hope everyone has a great Saturday!!

It has been a cold last few days for sure-we came real close to single digits in Lawrence Thursday and Friday morning without a snow pack any where really close-that is pretty impressive!! While there has been some warm days and a few warm stretches in November and early December the cold imho has been quite impressive. We maybe had 1-2 days last year to this date where the maximum heating was below 40-this year we have had several. I think one thing this pattern has shown for sure, there will be some pretty impressive cold shots between now and March!!!

Early next week is for sure going to be interesting to watch develop. At this moment in time, I think the most fascinating item in the whole schabang is that the LRC showed the way and now the models are playing catch up. I was kind of thinking that early next week is related to October 22nd (even a blind squirel can find a nut LOL) and thanks to the this Blog and the LRC Blog I was on the right track. It is interesting also that if you go back and look at the surface charts for October 20th (3 days before the ULL closed off) we had a push of colder come down-look at today-there is a 1028 MB High in southern Manitoba that is helping to filter down some colder air into the area-a weak (well weak compared to Wednesday LOL) cold front is comming through and the 14Z surface shows our winds turning more to the NW. The satelite also shows this push pretty well. Also, looking at the 0Z models, the energy forecast to devlop Monday is comming in from the NW flow-looking at Tuesday October 22nd, the same thing happened-fascinating stuff-at least I think I am seeing this correctly??

How will this all evolve-it will be fun to watch for sure!! I do think the NAM is too warm right now-Since we are later in the year this should track to our south-on October 22nd since this tracked right over/to the North of us, we had a warm front come through-I think the real warmer air will stay to the south and east of us. The other card here I think is that we have much colder air to work with than in October-how is that going to affect the whole evolution of this..it is 30 below in central Manitoba and Sasch.-that is cold. I do still think it will be Sunday's 0z runs before there is a real model concensus and the details really begin to show themsleves. That being said, I do think one can look at October 22nd and then use that to sort out some of the model variances. That is to be done by someone much more weather savvy than myself LOL-I would just make a mess out of it!!!

I hope some of this makes a lttle bit of sense-i am for sure going out on a limb here considering my limited knowledge. But I still think that at this time the fact that the LRC pointed the way is just awesome!!!

Have a great Saturday!!

Bill in Lawrence

Hi Jeremy,

Skipping past the storm on Tuesday, are we still expecting an arctic blast to set in?

Scott:

I was thinking the exact same thing!!! It has to be an incredible feeling!!

It looks like early on tuesday it will be snowing pretty good in north central ks and gradually spread over the area.

Am I correct when I say that new models come out every 6 hours?  And if so, what times are they?  I dont understand what zulu time is or when the times they are talking about are.  Can someone explain?
Thanks
Becky ***************** Becky, The model data generally comes out at 8 a.m., 2 p.m., 8 p.m., and 2 a.m. for the NAM. An hour and a half later for the GFS. Jeremy

Bewild79 the GFS comes out at 330 am, 930 am,330 pm 930pm. I think the NAM comes out an hour earlier from those times.

Seems like we need to wait, it'll be close. . .

Wow, it's warming up good outside, 44f and rising... For December and what it could be temp wise, actually feels pretty darn nice outside. :D

H.

Hi Guys..

12Z NAM wasn't as much fun to look at as the last several runs, but the 12Z GFS still looks pretty darn good, especially for those folks just north and west of the city.  That would be a familiar solution.  At this point, I'm just glad that the trend has continued to make this an exciting storm to watch, even if the NAM did speed it up.  The good thing about this storm is, here we are just 72 hours away, and there is real potential for significant snow.  Not sure it will come together, but hoping it does, and enjoying each new model run.  We've got a shot with this one, guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Matt

If you believe the NAM - expect minor snow accumulations (less than 2") for Kansas City.

However, if you believe the 12z GFS....

At least .3" of QPF with temps below freezing at 500 & SFC, would make easy on 2-4" if not more - especially over northeast Kansas where they could get a foot as per 12z GFS.

I'm not buying anything yet. I'm holding out until Sunday afternoon to buy anything and see if the models are in consensus.

The storm is still having issues being represented.  It is getting better, but still not quite right yet.  

I am still expecting a bit more consolidation and focus on the southern end.  While I am in agreement of depiction of the cold air being wrapped in, I still think the trajectory of the storm is off.

I am digging the surface reflection, and would anticipate some of the surface trends being pretty close.  Depending on the upper air refinements and the surface reflection, it will change the warm/cold paradigm and will continue to slow down a bit.  

As I mentioned a day or two ago when the storm didn't show much...I am still bullish on snow.  Now, it is just a question of exactly where the bands will set up.  If I am interpreting one of the trends we have noticed in prior storms correctly, how the bands move in and how they may linger a bit in a broader precip event opposed to bands moving in and out will have to be watched.

I feel in general cold breeds cold, and have a gut feel that we will continue on the cooler side of guidance at this point...  the WAA regimes we have seen this year are a bit more dominant in other parts of the cycle and not sure how much effect there will be from a trending perspective above and beyond normal circumstances for this storm.

As I am much stronger in long term forecasting, I am about to let go of this storm and let the experts with more experience in this area go to town...and probably will start providing some thoughts on the next big storm.  Trying to work all that into some thoughts for later this weekend.

;-)

Jeremy...looking ahead, I am seeing the polar bears currently packing for a trip south...  ;-)

I know this is going to be fun to watch however I hope the south side gets more snow this year or at least us folks on the north side would like to share the snow with you on the south side this year :)

Becky,

NAM comes out at (approximately) 2:30 AM, 8:30 AM, 2:30 PM, and 8:30 PM
GFS comes out at (approximately)  4:00 AM, 10:00 AM, 4:00 PM and 10:00 PM

Great thing is, once you get within 84 hours of a storm, you only have to wait 4 and a half hous for new data at the longest, instead of 6.  Then of course, the Canadian, Euro, and NGM come out only twice a day around 11:00 AM and 11:00 PM.  If you really get close to a storm, within 12 hours, the RUC comes out every hour, but only updates out to 12 hours with every 3rd run..

Hope this helps..

Matt.

f00dl3..

Better hold out until Monday afternoon.  That seems to be how close to a storm we have to get before the models really get a good solid grip on it, especially when it comes to snow.  I remember the big storm that dropped 20+ inches in Clinton/Nevada, and at the Lake of the Ozarks on December 1st and 2nd of 2007.  18 hours prior to the storms arrival the models showed around 15 inches or more for KC.  The very next model run, which was only 12 hours out, and now on the morning of the storm itself, removed every single ounce of snow from the forecast.  Then when the 12Z data came out, it showed 4-6", and by the time the 18Z data came out and the storm was moving in, the models showed a major storm once again.  That one was really hard though because in Blue Springs for instance we had about 7" of snow, while in Leavenworth, the ground was completely bare.  Only thing that seems a certainty about big winter storms around here is that the models will change big time in the last 72 hours leading up to it.  Can be fun, but sure can be frustrating as you well know..

Have a good one.  Here's hoping this one hammers us pretty good!

Matt

Seems like the snow disapates a little before it gets here. Im not hopin for a lot, just an inch or two.

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/READY_animations.php

To complete the answer to Becky's question about zulu time,  check out this site: http://www.theweatherprediction.com/basic/ztime/

More info than you'd care to know, except it omits the fact that "zulu" is the term used by military and aviation, while UTC (Universal Time Code) is used by civilians.

Bonus points to whoever can explain why it's called "zulu."

If anybody know how to fix this plz tell me.
I have a diff tab open that I can doeverything normal on except x out of, even if I choose close tabs that tab stays open and I CAN'T X out of this user. Can anybody help? :-(

"The UTC time zone is sometimes denoted by the letter Z – a reference to the equivalent nautical time zone (GMT), which has been denoted by a Z since about 1950. The letter also refers to the "zone description" of zero hours, which has been used since 1920 (see time zone history). Since the NATO phonetic alphabet and amateur radio word for Z is "Zulu", UTC is sometimes known as Zulu time. This is especially true in aviation, where Zulu is the universal standard.[19] This ensures all pilots regardless of location are using the same 24-hour clock, thus avoiding confusion when flying between time zones."

Source: Wikipedia

Well I think we can all agree, the folk here at NBC say we will get precipitation, thus we will. In what form that precipitation will end up as, who the heck knows. For those of you who are going on and on about us getting lots of snow, did I miss something? The weather Gods have been saying maybe some snow, but not a lot as far as they can tell at this point. So why the hype? Is it because we had a good rain storm on the 22nd of Oct?

On the flip side, NOAA has increased the chances for snow for us Mon. night and Tuesday. However, they often refine their forecasts and it has been known to change a lot. They are not saying anything about the amount of snow. The best they will say at this point is for Mon. night, "Rain likely before midnight, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible."
Audra

Wow,  GFS looks a lot like last year's snows that hammered just to the NW of us:

http://204.2.104.196/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_87HR.gif

More significant is the opening of the door to Scott's "Polar Bear" express. That's a COLD looking couple of weeks that follow the storm.

Juba, you have to CTRL-ALT-DEL to get task manager up, then end task on the program.

This is a better map than what I just posted:

http://204.2.104.196/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_96HR.gif

Rick that is an amazing map but its more or less fantasy for the northern viewers let's hope that pushes further south for the southern viewers.

But, Audra, hype is just so much fun! :-)

Seriously, I hope my comments are not taken as hype or even a prediction. I'm just posting what the models are showing because it's interesting to "see" a real live snowstorm portrayed for KC.

I'll leave the analysis of the accuracy of what the models are showing to the pros. As always, KSHB has the most accurate forecast in town.

Thank you everyone for the great info!  I am still learning so just bear with me and my questions...=)
becky

 Anyone know what the new data is looking like?

How about that storm the 14-15th of December?  

chiefsfan, look at the comments right above yours.

KansasPatriot - I am going to do an important blog tonight or tomorrow..and I think it answer what you are looking at for 14-15th.  I have to get all my thoughts and images together.

;-)

Is the wind going to die down by game time tonight?  

kcwxguy, perfect!  Doesnt it seem like the 14-15th possible storm is carrying more weight than the one we have coming mon-tues?  I know it is still way too early to pinpoint, but a rough around the edges look shows much promise!

Look forward to some analysis on that!

BTW- I am not worried about different solutions for the snow chance next week.  That is normal

 Well it looks like where gonna get hit for sure!!!!!!

i wish the models came out sooner....everyone seems to give thier thoughts more about the situation after the models come out..lol

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The 18Z NAM is coming out right now.  Not out all the way but probably still not a good run for snow lovers.  Kind of like the 12Z if I had to guess.

Jeremy

http://204.2.104.196/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC...-SNOW_120HR.gif  

GFS gives quite a bit of snow to Eastern Nebraska..8" +

snow day, that link didnt work for me...it is just me?

No Becky, it doesn't work for me either.

Didn't work for me either

Its only Saturday, I am not worried about the models

That link is on lrcweather.com in one of the latest bloging comments though.

Nope, doesn't work for me etiher.

Jeremy,

Don't believe the NAM, I would see what the GFS says.

Is there going to be an update to the blog soon?

18z NAM looks good for K.C. !!!!

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New NAM is complete and it does look snowier than this morning's run.  But still not as much snow potential as the GFS.  If you want snow...the GFS is your friend at this moment:)

Jeremy

Sorry, but anyways, the NAMs track hasnt changed but the precip and qpf amounts have gone down. I really would put much emphasis into the nam as it has done very poorly this year

Most likely something will go wrong with the storm and we will be upset for a few days. But as a reminder We had 12 inches of snow on 12/07/05 here in Desoto. So it can happen!

Jeremy, what is the point of the inbox feature on this blog, is there a way to get rid of it?

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The inbox is if you get a private message from another blogger.  You can send and receive messages without everyone on the blog seeing what you post.  Kind of like a blog email.  There is no way to get rid of it that I know of.

Jeremy

BTW, is this a good link, I'm new to the blog.
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/READY_animations.php

BTW, is this a good link, I'm new to the blog.
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/READY_animations.php

Does anyone know where to find the European ECMWF models? The models on the NWS main page do not have links to the Eurpoean models (or at least don't clearly state).

A quick google search for European model turned up some interesting pictures until I specified it was the european Forecast model, but I couldn't find any real usefull sites that go in depth as the NWS model images. (Best I found was at http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!96!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008120612!!/ )

Total snow from the 18Z NAM (based on Kuchera calculations):

http://tinyurl.com/5ctpsk

Compared to its earlier runs, it looks like the NAM might be trending towards the 12Z GFS although, as Jeremy said, not as hefty in the amounts.

f00dl3, I think there is some kind of limitation on what the general public is allowed to see of the ECMWF. I found one alternative site last winter that was posting all of the info, but it mysteriously went away.

I'm thinking this is mainly going to be a rain-maker with some minor accumulating snows possible at the end of the event.

"Everyone knows that real snow storms show up about 12 hours out, the 4 day out storms turn into 65 degrees and rain."

good point Chris.....I always say...if its cold enough to snow...it theres no moisture or storm systems for miles...but if theres going to be a huge storm with lots of moisture in the wintertime.....you can bet it will be rain for KC...lol

Unfortunately for Kansas City snow lovers, unless we have a very strong artic air mass in place (which only happens several times through the winter), we do not get many storm systems. Usually patterns that create strong artic air masses at the same time prohibit storm development as they "ridge" things out a bit.

In most cases, the storms that impact Kansas City during the winter end up like this one - forming either over the 4 corners, or the OK/TX panhandle. When storm systems are this far south, the return moisture flow ahead of these storm systems draw warmer, moister air up from the gulf states, and the back side of these storms pull moisture from the desert southwest. This is why alot of the time if the storms are too "strong", alot of potential huge snowstorms end up either being too warm, or dry-slotting the Kansas City area - while they dump tons of snow on the eastern seaboard when cold air being pulled around the backside of the storm finally catches up to the precip "core".

GFS looks good to!!!

Unfortunately for Kansas City snow lovers, when we have a very strong artic air mass in place (which only happens several times through the winter), we do not get many storm systems. Usually patterns that create strong artic air masses at the same time prohibit storm development as they "ridge" things out a bit.

In most cases, the storms that impact Kansas City during the winter end up like this one - forming either over the 4 corners, or the OK/TX panhandle. When storm systems are this far south, the return moisture flow ahead of these storm systems draw warmer, moister air up from the gulf states, and the back side of these storms pull dry, warm air from the desert southwest. This is why alot of the time if the storms are too "strong", alot of potential huge snowstorms end up either being too warm, or dry-slotting the Kansas City area - while they dump tons of snow on the eastern seaboard when cold air being pulled around the backside of the storm finally catches up to the precip "core".

(Corrected errors, please delete previous post.)

Thats it, I am moving back to Colorado so I can measure snow with a yardstick instead of a 6 inch ruler!

i dont want any snow! please. unless it comes on early wednesday morning, when I do not work.

Just checked the NWS Hourly Weather graph for the period from 3AM Monday to 3AM Wednesday and for this area out here by Lake Perry thay have removed the snow and only show a trace of rain for the time.  That wa updated at 3:52PM today.  Prior to that they were showing snow of 1.5"

sherman, the new one or the old one?

18z data is still showing alot of moisture. good chunk of moisture ahead of freezing line with moisture behind it as well. i particularly like the 0z and 12z runs over the 6z and 18z. bottom line right now: there will be rain. there will be snow. how much of each...that reamains to be determined. i will make prediction tommorrow night after the 0z run.

Okay, we are back from florida where we had 50's and rain our first day!  It didn't warm up until wednesday.  I am very excited to see that there is a storm coming!  I am so hoping for snow!  

I am the only one as far as I know.

sherman, I think Flake Fan is talking about the GFS

Jeremy should we expect an update tonight? I am really not wanting snow on Tuesday at the moment.

******************

Yes...I will have an update!  Working on graphics right now.

Jeremy

Gary, what is your gut feeling leaning towards here? because these models are driving me insane! and im not a particular meterologist, lol

******************

Gary is gone and likely won't be on the blog this evening.  Maybe sometime Sunday.

Jeremy

haha then jeremy... lol what is your gut feeling on this storm monday nite into tuesday?