Watch NBC Action News HD this weekend from 8-9 a.m. and at 5 & 10 p.m. for the latest on the upcoming storm.
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Here's a quick update based on the 00Z data. Our in house computers produce about an inch or two of snow with the next storm. The 00Z NAM produces 0.37" of liquid for KCI, with probably half of that falling when temperatures are able to support snow. Not overly impressive, but this would be enough to end the snowflake contest. The 00Z GFS continues to be the snowiest solution.
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Good Saturday bloggers! I can always tell when a storm is approaching or when the pattern is about to change because the hits on the blog begin to skyrocket. Thank you to everyone who has participated in the discussion on this upcoming storm.
Let's quickly touch on the Sunday forecast. Lows tonight should bottom out in the upper teens before clouds arrive after midnight-3 a.m. These will be associated with a clipper zipping through the upper Midwest. There is a chance of a few flurries along and north of highway 36. For Kansas City likely just clouds during the morning. As the clipper moves by our winds turn southeast and eventually south. The key to Sunday will be how fast the clouds clear and how quickly winds turn to the south. Right now I'm going 39 for a high. If things play out right there could be some low to mid 40s across the region, even here in Kansas City I wouldn't rule that out. But right now I'm thinking a little cooler.
Now to Monday. Tempeatures should start out in the mid 30s Monday morning and warm into the mid 40s. Clouds should race in and cover the area by late morning or in the afternoon. Rain showers will develop as the storm enters the Plains. Rain timing is looking like afternoon or evening. If the storm slows more the timing could be pushed back.
Monday night looks like rain for everyone in the viewing area as temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s. The freezing line starts to drop southeast on Tuesday. The 18Z GFS puts the 850mb 0C line at Kansas City at noon Tuesday. So a rain mixing with and changing to snow scenario looks likely on Tuesday. Here is the 18Z GFS forecast showing the 0C line.
Just a quick look at this one forecast would lead to the thinking that more snow would fall from Kansas City and points north and northwest due to a quicker changeover. The models vary on the timing and amount of precipitation left once the freezing line drops south. So picking a clear snow winner at this point is very difficult, but early thoughts would lean a little north.
Now let's look at how much moisture the GFS is producing for this storm. This forecast map is for 36 hours starting Monday at 6 p.m. and ending at 6 a.m. Wednesday.
The little pink shade represents 1.50"-1.75" of total precipitation.
Now how much of this could potentially be snow? Looking back to the first map posted I would think a transition to snow by midday Tuesday would be a fair estimate this far out. Lots can and will change. With that said let's look at the liquid forecast from 12 noon to midnight on Tuesday.
This puts about 0.10" to 0.75" of liquid across the area when it should be falling in the form of snow or changing to snow. This would likely be a wet snow.
After all this I think there is a very good chance the snowflake contest ends with this storm. If you have Tuesday the 9th as your guess you may be in luck. Putting a number on snow totals is tough based on everything above, plus this is a snapshot from one model and all from the 18Z GFS. The NAM is quicker and would not produce as much moisture and as a result not as much snow. I think the NAM may align more with the GFS and have a better organized upper level vort max at 500mb. Another question is will the cold air get here in time to interact with the steady precipitation, or will it arrive as things are winding down?
All things to consider moving forward. We are looking at this storm from every angle and will give you the best forecast and coverage of this leading up to, during, and after the storm. Keep in mind we are the only station to provide a daily weather blog with interaction in Kansas City. If you have questions please post them and we will do our best to help everyone out! Keep in mind we are still days away from the storm...so don't get expectations to high yet, and there's always a chance something could change dramatically.
Jeremy