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Gary if your on what do you think will happen?

well, the 12z nam isnt as impressive as the off-run gfs...but it still has a couple inches of snow for the metro...lets see what the preferred 12z gfs shows...

sweetness,
If you go up to the top and click on forums you can see who all is logged on =)

Hi Gary,
Just in from taking Windy for a run brrrrrr it's chilly out but the sun is glorious so we couldn't resist some outside time.  Windy says, "Gary keep the snow away so my Mom will keep taking me out for my run!" (like I would ever deny her her run time, ha) ;)!  Have a great day, give Breezy and Stormy hugs from us!

--deb, dave, hoss, popeye and windy

Thank you bewild19? lol nice we still need a ton of snow

Hoping for lots of snow.  Off topic, Me being a Bears fan, know that they played last Sunday night against the Vikings.  Could someone tell the news team they are a week behind,lol.  It showed this morning that they play tonight for the night game.  Now back to your regular programming. ***************** I want to keep reliving the game last Sunday night as a Vikings fan. Jeremy

Man i Iowa they have Winter Storm Watches out already with us only with Hazardous Weather Outlook. Will this change?

12Z GFS much less impressive on snowfall in KC than the last several runs.  Still has accumulating snow, but MUCH less than the previous runs.  Not good to see.  Does still show a band of heavy snow across central Kansas, but not so much around here.  This model would indicate that by the time the temp is cold enough to support snow, most of the moisture will have come and gone.  Will wait for the next run.  Hopefully it trends back the other way..

Matt

The longer it takes the NWS to issue a winter storm watch for us the better. When they issue one early it doesent do much. Just wait Gary and Jermey say later today, they will keep us informed with the best forcast.

So...any thoughts on when the snow might start up and the roads would start getting bad?  And are you currently thinking that the changeover from rain to snow will be possibly icey?
I was thinking of taking Tuesday off, since it's my daughter's third birthday, so maybe it will serve a dual purpose!! : )  I've saved my vacation days for snow days this winter, and would hate having to start using them so soon, but...

Gary,

Trying to remember here.  Didn't you say that you prefer a negatively tilted storm vs a positively tilted storm for snowfall?  I think that's correct, and if so, why is that again?

------------------

Yes, a negatively tilted storm has vorticity and upper level energy ejecting out and causing lift, while a positively tilted trough tends to have less lifting.  Let's see how this lines up.  It still may end up being the right combination to bring us snow on Tuesday.

Gary

Thanks,

Matt.

I think 2-4 in metro

Gary,
You're right it is too early to make any predictions on a snow amount. But it should be interesting. Also I asked this last night really late in the blog but do you know of any programs that are out there to help make custome weather graphics for the general public?

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I am not sure of any!  We just use our weather computer software at work from Weather Central. 

Gary

I forgot you are from Vikings land, so in that case, GO LIONS!!!!!!!!!!

Well certainly the 12Z models today have backed off quite a bit on snowfall accumulations.

Yesterday, Matt Maisch made an excellent point, IMO, about a major storm we had i believe in December of last year. The bulid-up had been coming for about a week on a major winter storm, and all the way up to the event it looked solid.

Then all of the sudden, the morning of the event, the 06Z NAM wiped out the entire storm. Everyone went into freak out mode, and then by afternoon the major winter storm had been restored by the models and yes, it did snow quite a bit.

This point needs to be remembered, as the models will continue to wobble back and forth all the way up to the event.

Im leaning more towards the lower end of the projections. I think and inch or two is a safe bet at this point.

Scott, where are you this morning?? Last night, you said this..

"The finer parts of the storm are still coming together, but the SREF, the RUC, the GFS are pretty close.  I am very happy to see how the trowel is setting up and think things are poised to be very favorable.  The RUC's location of the upper level low and its alignment are very good.

We will see...but think that this will be quite the news story/weather maker...but, I guess we knew it should for quite awhile?"


I am in NO WAY calling you out here, but wondering if you are holding true to your call on this one.  Considering backing off a bit??

:)

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 I think we should pay more attention to the precipitation output from the models as we move into Monday.  We will likely make our first call on the air tonight when Jeremy shows our Powercast at 5 and 10 PM tonight.

Gary

Adam,

Sorry..was busy writing the lrcweather.com blog.  LOL.  I am not that much different right now.  The question is when does the rain change to snow, and where is the location of the ULL.

The 12Z GFS seems to bring the surface low a bit closer to KC keeping warm air around a bit longer before the back end.  The location of the ULL, if it cuts off, and the subsequent path of the surface low are the wild cards.

The preferred path in my mind would be for the surface low to just pass north of Joplin, with a negatively tilted ULL.   Not sure how it will pan out yet for the finite details.

As seen on what I put on lrcweather.com, the difference between the GFS and NAM doesn't look huge until you consider snow magnifies the precision difference yielding several inches difference.  We will see.  The energy is just now rolling into the NW, and I expect model sampling to be much better now ongoing to the event.

Its not a question now if it will snow..its a question when and for who.  I am still bullish and think this will dig and be influenced by the long term longwave.  It is now the time to hurry up and wait.

LOL

I'm hoping that this is a biggie. I can always hope right!

Going for it tonight huh?

Very interesting. Seems very bold/risky, but youve obviously been is this boat a thousand times over, so you must be confident.

This storm has been very complex fromt the beginning and the models are still having a tough time.

The latest GFS seems to be a little more in line with what I feel will happen.

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX

Cilmatologically, the 2-4 inch range across "most" of the metro seems much more reasonable. My guess is, the weather team will go with this total as the "intial" guess, with locally higher amounts on the North and West sides of the area.

Heck, even the EAX office is keeping it close to the vest at this point.

PREDICTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THIS FAR OUT WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
THERMAL FIELDS AND POSITION OF THE HEAVY SNOW TRACK INVITES
FLIP-FLOPPING SO WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY. HOPEFULLY THE
MODELS WILL SOON START TO SHOW MORE OF A CONSENSUS.

I again just want to thank the weather team for having this blog. It allows "weather" nerds(such as myself...lol) to come in here and discuss their thoughts.

I am in no way a meterologist. I just have a passion for learning and studying weather. Winter storms is not my area of expertise though. I am a storm chaser, so the spring is more up my alley. Its just, this is alot of fun to track as well!

Thanks again team....

-----------------

Your welcome!  We are glad that this is a great environment for us to express what we think will happen.  Everyone has to realize that we have yet to make our first snowfall accumulation prediction.  Jeremy, Brett, Jeff and I will decide this evening on a direction to go in.  But, with that said, I am still expecting the snowflake contest to end sometime late Tuesday.

Gary

Scott,

    Correct me if im wrong, but aren't the "long term longwaves" a critical part to forecasting with LRC.

Gary talks so much about how they help to determine where storms will form and how much/when they will strengthen.

It seems to me, that if the LRC were to stake its claim to this storm, it will dig like you say.

Is this correct??

Probably not...lol

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Adam,

It isn't just the position of the "long term" longwaves that will help forecast the weather.  These bigger features help us forecast weeks and months ahead on a general basis.  The LRC literally goes down to the mesoscale, and features moving in and out of troughs, cloud patterns, precipitation patterns, etc. all will be following this years LRC.  We are still putting this puzzle together.  In the past it has all come together by the first week of January, perhaps by the middle of December.  So, it should all really help a lot more very soon.

Gary

Bellgolf, you might look at this software:

http://www.iges.org/grads/grads.html

I downloaded it once but never installed it as it seemed too complex for the time I had available. If you give it a go, maybe you could give the rest of us a report! :)

WX Team,
I am going over the model runs and it seems as if both gfs and nam have the storm slowing down and digging in. It looks as if this thing really gets cranked up tuesday night into wednesday... Is this the direction you are seeing as well? ryan in "warm'n up chillicothe"

Well I will be watching 5pm to see what the prediction is! Gary, are you going to be excited on the forecast? I love watching Mark and Elizabeth cringe at the words snow or winter weather.  There are always like "Oh no Gary not snow noo" and then you are like "oh yes its coming hahaha"


Also, next weekend is looking really busy.  Anyone have some early opinions?  

Bellgolf, here's another option that looks interesting. Free for 30 days, then $89 or $169.

http://www.weathergraphics.com/da/

Hopefully By tonight the Models will be done flip floping and Just make it what the GFS had it yesterday

If you want snow please don't get your hopes up but I can see where the snowflake contest would end but will it be over an inch of snow?

Hey Gary,

Based on the LRC so far, what would you put for a percentage on us having a white Christmas this year?

Seems to me like it may be a decent chance.

Alex

WOO HOO!  I chose 12/9 for the snowflake contest!  I think I picked 6:09pm.  What do you think my chances are Gary/Jeremy????

HURRAY!!!!!!!!!!!  My birthday is December 9th and that would be an amazing present if we got even just a few inches of snow!  Obviously if we got a full on snow storm that would be fabulous!  I have to work that night but that is okay!  Thank you thank you and I sure hope the storm gets us good!

Looks like the 18Z NAM staying very consistent with it's 12Z run.

Still very minimal on the snowfall.

Waiting for the 18Z GFS...

Isn't modelitis wonderful!

LOL :)

Dangit, I wanted the 8-10 inches storm. lol

Well this beats last years ice as the first winter event.  We do not have a pattern set up yet but the models and NWS are showing higher amounts to the north and northwest of the metro.  Last winter the models were calling, on a storm like this for the snow to be south and it jumped north, there always seems to be pattern set up like this.  

Last year after the ICE STORM .. ST JOE, ACHISION, CHILLI etc were FORCASTED TO GET IT AND WE DID.   To the tune of 46.8 inches not counting 1.5 inches of ice.  It is unusual to be ""SPECIAL"" two years in a row. . . for all bloggers I would like to see a 100 mile wide area of 5-7 covering all of us 3-4 times......  

St. Joe. I disagree. Thats all am Saying since Jeremy will throw a yellow flag.

Cant wait to see what the predictions are tonight!! I will be happy with 2-3 inches, but anything more would be great!

 The snowflake contest is gonna end on Tues., just look they have 90% chance on Tues

The GFS comes out about 3:30 right? It seems like it does much better than the others 1 or 2 days out. I am waiting for that and the teams forcast. I still think (hope) for 2-3 inches in the northland and less as you go souht and east.I'm just taking a stab in the dark(since I just started looking at the models this season)

So what do you think the snow totals are for the GFS, the NAM?

the backside model of the storm hasnt came out yet.

Something that I am more excited about right now than the Monday-Tuesday storm is the season finale of Storm Chasers on the Discovery at 9:00 pm tonight.

Looks pretty insane!!! =]

Alex

Im waiting for it.

chfs327 Ipushsnow tends to agree with me as well; in an hour and twenty minutes we will get the weather teams first call.

Still looks like 3-4 inches for Johnson and Jackson county.  I am sure it will change again though.



I am REALLY interested in next weekends storm...looks like a longer lasting event!

doesnt look great for snow lovers if you want my opinion. a dusting there about for me. Maybe the first inch.

WOW!!! Over 50 on monday , does that mean the storm will have a hard time changing over to snow??

Updated the blog based on 18z.  

18Z GFS really dropping snow totals for the metro now.

Not looking good at all, at this point....

I do like the sound of next weekend being a long lasting event.(I do get paid by the hour) ;]

Maybe Im missing something here, but im seeing basically nothing for next weekend at all.

Maybe some light snow showers, but it doesnt look promising.

Still could change ALOT...lol

********************

Looks like we warm up by next weekend.  Early indication would be rain showers if anything.  Nothing much through Saturday at this moment.

Jeremy

With todays runs. They will just make it a Winter weather Advisory then a Winter storm watch.

Dang, doesn't look good for snow tuesday, but I will wait and see what the weather team says.

Im just waitng for the Models to flip back around again. I Remember last year. when we were suppose to get 2-4 and then at 6PM we were suppose to have a huge storm. then we only got that 2-4. Hopefully it will do the same with this one so we can have alot of snow

So, do i need to put away my sleds and shovels and boots?? Here in the Harrisonville area we missed the big storms all of last year. There is a huge hill here called Lord's Park that would love some action real soon.
I would say it rivals Snow Creek's bunny hill......... There's always hope : )

How many ours away are the next storm?

The Most Dangerous hill in The Metro is Lowes Hill in Olathe. Its caused the Most injuries too. Its a Big hill behind a Lowes which is basically going down a 38 degree angle with bumps. You have about a 18 foot stop area before you hit the wall of the building.

****************

There's a pretty steep hill on Ward Parkway decending to the Plaza area.

Jeremy

and Did I menton that the 18 foot stop zone is a parking lot

I have never been to that hill. However I will probabily try to a little later this month.

bellgolfMU12,

I have this if you look for something like this:

www.weather4powerpoint.com

chfs327... gonna try it with or without snow, or both! :)

H.

 Just watching the CHIEFS game, they said 63 in Denver!

  It's looks like 2-4 inches here in metro, im pretty sure

Very smart team.

Id wait until you get the 0Z run in tonight, before going on air with predictions.

I dont blame you guys at all...

******************

We are having a conference call tonight to discuss things.  We are on at 10:30 after the game so we will have all the 00Z data and this should help to gives us much more confidence than we have now.

Jeremy

Seems like a typical snow "storm" for the metro...the temperatures are too warm to support snow, so we get rain and everyone waits and waits for the temperatures to drop and when they finally do, we get a little snow and nothing significant.

I never really got excited with this storm...so now, I can't be disappointed!

Also, quick question...are we still under Gary's "Artic Air Watch" or has that been scrapped...?  The temperatures in the long range seem to be moderating...

And,

I've seen one person going down the Lows hill and smash into the wall.

Eww.

And...if we are on a 50-54 day cycle, shouldn't a storm system be lining up for next weekend?  

Fred

Yep. Im never Surprised when Ambulances get called there. They have tried to shut it down but It doesnt ever work

I still see the cutoff low taking effect and diminishing the cold air to work with, including a little less moisture.  The end of the week warm up follows the pattern, so I am not too surprised.  
Ready for the good news!?!
If this pattern does become concrete this week, there is a good chance of snow before Christmas, but not on.  I would say 75% chance.  Now how about that putting out your neck!!!

Disappointing.  We rarely get a good snow like when I was  a kid in the early to mid 80's.  This disturbance seems like nothing to get excited about.

Weather team,

Your weather page says that you feel the snowflake contest is "very likely" to end sometime on tuesday.

The EAX office had this to say in the afternoon AFD.

FOR NOW HAVE GONE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE ON SNOW AMOUNTS WITH GENERALLY
ONLY .5 TO 1.5 ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.


That should get everyones attention.

:)

***********************

No comment:)

Jeremy

You can sometimes get the local NWS Weather Radio on your walkie talkie frequency #7, I have it right now!?!?!?!?

Im bummed by the new data.  I wanted a good snowfall.  I guess I will keep my fingers crossed for the next storm.

I missed the forecast - what's the predicted amount for us in Lenexa?

As of now, my thinking is 2-4" metro - 3-4" north/west, 2-3" south/east.

I,m still waiting to see what the models have for later tonight and in the a.m. before I get too disappointed,they will and always do change!!

Going north on Locust from downtown to the Heart of America Bridge there is a very steep hill, too. It's one I avoid in inclement weather.

Newby, nothing really was given.

I think it goes something like this:

It really is still too early to tell, the storm is reliant on plenty of factors to come together. Given this will probably be a rain -> snow change over, and the front is coming down from the north, the further south you go, the chances are the less snow you'll get.

I'm not a weather scientist, so someone correct me if I'm out of whack.

H.

********************

Pretty much on target.  I think the greatest totals would be near or north of I-70.  A lot depends on the upper low movement/development.  I still think the snowflake contest ends.  One of our in house models thinks the snowflake contest will continue:)

Jeremy

I don't think the contest will end until next year

I say 1 - 1.5 inches for Kansas City, Ks and north and west, 2 inches. Not a big storm, just a taste of what's to come.

so downtown KC will be in the greater totals?????

so downtown KC will be in the greater totals?????

I have a feeling if this cycles around in January, it will be a lot more impressive than what we're going to get this time. :)

H.

I think north of downtown will be greater.

I think the greatest totals would be from I29-435 north, Platte City/KCI north

I know we are lwatching the Mon/Tues storm but does the storm next weekend look stronger than the storm on Monday-Tuesday?

Jeremy:"greatest totals to be near or north of I-70" what do expect greater totals for here in downtown KC????

2 inches at KCI. I think the snowflake contest will end at the studios as well. 1.4 inches there.

   3-5 north, 2-4 metro, 1-3, south???? Im just guessing

Too much warm air to overcome...

The snowflake contest WILL continue....

********************

There's a chance it could, but there is still snow in the forecast.  Our fate will be sealed by the second wave and how that develops.

Jeremy

Gary, I if you are way off on any predictions for tuesday, your punishment, wear a green tie :D. lol jk.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0CghAKgY4E&feature=related

Twister, your not too far off, it will be close on the contest ending, I think there is a 40% chance it will end.

I'm still waiting for the forcast after the game from Jermey. At least he has extra time to go over all the data.

*****************

The NAM is out and the trend for less snow continues.  The likely solution will be somewhere between the NAM & GFS. 

Jeremy

Maby a couple of inches for the northland???

****************

Do you mean Iowa or Wisconsin:)

Jeremy

HaHa ,so the snowflake contest lives on?

I'm tellin ya, KC will get minimal amounts, which is ok, because I think we will have a big storm before Christmas and we will end up with a white Christmas, which is so so nice, and will be beautiful!

Okay, here a bad weather omen: I passed on buying any new sleds for this winter season. There  I was in the local hardware store, but I chickened out. Isn't that a sign of snow for sure, like forgetting an umbrella the day it is supposed to rain?

I didn't even buy my son snow boots this year.  He only needed them once last year.  Where is the snow?  Jeremy why do we never get it anymore?

We still get snow ,don't get vary much st once,