For Kansas City's most accurate forecast tune into NBC Action News HD after NFL football and Monday from 5-7 a.m.
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Here's a quick update. I wanted to hold off until after our main weather segment during our late show. If you saw that segment I mentioned that the storm comes in two parts like the map below indicates. Part one should bring 0.25" to 0.75" of rain, maybe a thunderstorm, and a little snow. The moisture races off just after it turns to snow. Areas that could see say an inch or two of snow would be in northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. Around the metro totals will be under 1" and likely closer to a trace to half inch. A slight change here or there could mean the snowflake contest still ends Tuesday, so it is something we will watch closely. Keep in mind if the changeover occurs quicker and say 0.05" to 0.10" of liquid falls as snow there could be a quick 1" or more in Kansas City. But right now I'm leaning in the direction of very little accumulation. We are still well over a day away from any snow, so check back Monday and Gary will have an update.
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Good evening everyone. The weather team is going to have a conference call this evening to discuss our thoughts and the forecast for the upcoming storm. At that time we will put some specific snow totals on paper. Until then I'm going to stick with these initial thoughts. I still believe the snowflake contest very likely ends Tuesday. In order for the contest to end there needs to be 1" of snow at the NBC studios. Greatest snow accumulation will likely occur near or north of I-70. Southeast areas will still see snow, but I think accumulations will be less than central and northern locations. Some locations may see flurries or very little snow.
Let's discuss where this storm is coming from and some of the challenges ahead.
The infrared satellite shows the 2 waves that will produce our rain and snow along the West Coast. Wave #1 a well defined upper low is over southern California. This will move east and help to spread rain across the area late Monday. Ahead of wave #1 there will be very mild air pushed into the Plains and Midwest. That is why forecast highs are in the 50s for Monday.
Wave #2 is the big question mark. Will it form into an upper low, will it strengthen, or will it move through positively tilted and produce a quick hitting snow and be gone. Wave #2 is the key to this storm if you want snow. This wave will help to draw in the cold air and will also produce lift as it moves near the area. So with moisture and cold air in place this would result in a band of snow. But how much and where will it occur?
The forecast models aren't as bullish in regards to snow totals for Tuesday, but that could change. The 18Z models I look at vary from a few tenths of an inch to around 3" for Kansas City. One thing that is pretty common among the models is whichever location picks up the most snow will likely be near or north of I-70. Totals will be less to the south and east.
After the weather team discusses things I will add some more thoughts. In the meantime with a warm front nearing us tonight a few sprinkles or a light shower could fall over mainly northeast Kansas or northwest Missouri. The metro probably stays dry and mild with temperatures hanging in the upper 30s for much of tonight.
Jeremy