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You failed to Metion the WWA.

first but nothing to say

It seems like the trend is for more snow to be to the SE.   They will have to extend the advisory through central MO.     Such a strange storm to get a handle on.   2 parts that never became one as we needed to get a good snow.

i think its safe to assume they dont know whats gonna happen

Will all the rain we are going to be getting tonight cause problems on the roadways tomorrow? Is it going to freeze and cause icy conditions?

No one knows. This still could become a major storm system. According to Latest GFS. Just need freezing line 35 miles southeast and look out.

I'm getting that feeling as well Teamster83, I think there's too many variables and scenarios to play out.

I think all stations have different forecasts right now, usually there's some alignment nearer the event, but not really this time.

H.

yea but chfs327 how much of a chance is there for that?

This storm is a bit tough to forecast.  

Adam - you asked me a good question in the prior entry, but think I could do it more justice tomorrow on the lrcweather.com blog.  Ask it over there tomorrow and I will be able to go into much more depth.

I am watching the pattern upcoming as it makes a bit more sense after watching this storm...

in the winter forecast the active period was december 5th - christmas. Not to judge to soon, but active doesn't look like the 7 day forecast. maybe the cycle isn't 51sh days long.

Bewild. I couldn't Tell you. I dont know what will happen.

You mentioned your "arctic air watch" last week apparently for this week...do you still see it getting that cold?  Although it'll be chilly on the back side of this front, it sure doesn't appear arctic to me.

-------------------

Notes,

My Arctic Air Watch was for the next two to three weeks.  I can't remember exactly what I stated in the blog, but it is still in effect!  Next week should be a blast of Arctic air.  What do you think?  Highs could be in the teens.

Gary

I thought there was a storm that they were watching for this weekend, what happened to that?

Rain then flurries...

It looks like next week is what we are watching with a strong arctic front and warm moist shallow air could cause problems next week let's wait and see a few days before making an assumption.

St. Joe has winds turning to the NE. All we snow lovers can do is hope for a miracle!!

I think something big is going to happen, I feel it, or it might just be wishcasting!

whats with all this ice talk?...and what about snow,,,,hmm

there gonna be next to no snow
this will b more of a rain event possibly ice event but harly any snow but hll who knows anymore thy change s often. like i posted earlier mllions on computers and satelltes, my 500.00 playstation 3 is about as effective the way this is going

brent,

1" of snow or less is possible, and we could see more problems with ice as the rain falls and then as temps fall the water freezes on bridges and morning rush hour could be a mess.

I am still sticking with 2-4"

I think im am gonna just wait and see what it does when it happens. Sometimes these storms that arent suppossed to do much, turn out to be bigger. Gary isn't on vacation, so there's one factor against us! Plus these rain changeover to snow events usually don't produce much in the way of snow. But, there is that slim chance that this storm could be different. Who knows?!

Valentine Ne. 32 deg. with lt. snow 1" or less expected, Amarillo Tx. 58 deg. with rain changing to snow 1" or less expected! Can this really be constituted as a "winter storm"? I know, I know its snowing pretty good up in Iowa but how often do we get anything close to what happens in Iowa and Minn.? By the way Sunday looks awesome!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
437 PM CST MON DEC 8 2008

KSZ025-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>024-028>030-037-090645-
/O.NEW.KEAX.WW.Y.0010.081209T1000Z-081209T1800Z/
ATCHISON KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-
NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-
DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-
LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATCHISON...TROY...LEAVENWORTH...
KANSAS CITY KS...OVERLAND PARK...OLATHE...TARKIO...ROCKPORT...
MARYVILLE...GRANT CITY...ALBANY...STANBERRY...BETHANY...
PRINCETON...UNIONVILLE...LANCASTER...DOWNING...MOUND CITY...
OREGON...SAVANNAH...CAMERON...GALLATIN...JAMESPORT...TRENTON...
MILAN...GREEN CITY...KIRKSVILLE...ST. JOSEPH...PLATTSBURG...
KINGSTON...HAMILTON...POLO...CHILLICOTHE...BROOKFIELD...
PARKVILLE...PLATTE CITY...WESTON...LIBERTY...EXCELSIOR SPRINGS...
RICHMOND...KANSAS CITY...INDEPENDENCE
437 PM CST MON DEC 8 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 12 PM CST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 12 PM CST
TUESDAY.

A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY START OUT AS RAIN TONIGHT.
HOWEVER AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST...COLD AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL CAUSE
THE RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SLEET IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD.
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER AREA
ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL LIKELY BECOME SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS.

THE WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA
DURING THE EARLY TO LATE MORNING TIME-FRAME...CREATING HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE THEN POSSIBLE ONCE THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW. IN ADDITION STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO
25 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 30 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

NRR

Marlina,
When I posted the info on the WWA, nothing had been posted yet. I now know that the person who posted it a few minutes above me was in the queue. Basically, I thought nobody had posted it yet as it was not listed on the blog. I was trying to help by posting it. Sorry for the repost.
Audra

Where exactly is the freezing line at right now. If somehow we can get that ine here before the rain we could end up having a nasty ice storm. Where can u find the freezing line please post a site.

Anybody have an idea what Leavenworth will get? Or even a semi-educated guess?

lvsnow, educated guess, not much! Typical bloggers guess, go to the grocery store, fire up the generator, and prepare for storm of the century... Priceless.

Looks a bit chilly to me up north after this frontal passage...

http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_dev/.//+sa1_temp+am+42

Scott,

Not a problem. I will ask again tomorrow...

;)

Well who knows what to think about this crazy storm that we have coming our way. Now while I know it is not winter officially yet here in Kansas City, based on climatologically records, it would appear that if we do not receive at least our first 1 inch of snowfall here in Kansas City by Christmas, then the chance of receiving substantial snow in Kansas City would be reduced. Now of course I know that can change all in one storm system, or the "perfect storm" and we could get walloped with 20 inches, unlikely...but there is always the potential. As for this storm system, I noticed the last model run came in a bit cooler, so maybe this will become a trend, and we can switch over to some snow earlier..say 2 or 3 am?? Maybe that will help bring us to our first inch here in the city! Guess we will just have to wait and find out...

Bryan

*Sigh*...those people that are convinced this will be armageddon are coming out. I've already heard one person at my work say, "We're supposed to get a blizzard tomorrow." I just want to scream! No one on any of the stations is saying anything like that...why do these people walk around and run their mouths? Not to mention when we only get the inch that was really predicted, those people that listed to the idiot predicting a blizzard then badmouth the meterologists who had it right all along. Sorry...had to vent. =)

teamster,

Looks like the freezing line is still up in Nebraska and Iowa:

http://img101.imageshack.us/my.php?image=sfcictxj6.gif

The red line shows where temps have begun to drop below 32.

I predicted 2-4" earlier - Although I think it may be a bit less than 2" even on the northernmost side of the metro. I'm actually quite concerned - latest GFS model (which was the one that trended bullish on snow amounts for this one) - is actually showing the next series of storms with the bulk of the precipitation falling in above freezing 540 temperatures.

There you go f00dl3, that is something that we should probably pay way more attention to!

I hope the Artic cold goes poof! That is more of a concern to me than the snow, even though I don't like the white stuff, cold weather is very hard on the livestock. Especially if we get 60 degrees over the weekend and then the bottom drops out a few days later.

Not too many forecasters seemed to be concerend with tomorrows strong winds. What will the wind chills be by tomorrow afternoon if we are suppose to get 30-40 MPH winds. Is that sustained or gusts? This could really create problems on the roads if it becomes icy.

I don't know though - latest NAM actually mixing it up a bit :-O

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_slp_024l.gif

what you all think. any chance of a ice storm being issued for the kc metro area

F00dl3-------------  What do you think about the new NAM,

im just excited to get some precip falling from the sky LOL

i also have a feeling were gonna get smacked with something they dont see coming. just a weird feeling i have.

These models are really something else...

based on the new NAM i would say 2-5" now i want to see the new GFS

no ice storm warning for KC.

What do I think of the new NAM? I'm thinking that I'm annoyed that as soon as I make a prediction I'm second guessing it again... lol

Wait...

I've been through this before....

It's called trying to make weather forecasts for Kansas City!

(Trying to make your own hobbiest forecasts really makes you have more respect for what the professionals that are in it for a career - like Gary and team - do.)

I agree with twister. I don't see anything right now that would scream ice storm potential for our area, just snow. BTW, new blog is out and Gary mentioned something about increasing snow potential. Should be interesting watching this system unfold...

new blog

does the GFS come out at 9:30?

Good Evening everyone!! Hope everybody has had a good day!!!

I am just a weather hobbyist on a good day but to me, this is a fascinating event to watch unfold no matter how it really turns out. Looking at the 1Z surface observations and the satellite is pretty cool!! Just a few random observations that I hope make some sense based on the surface charts and satelite:

1. The surface low which is at about 998 MB at 1z is just SW of Topeka if not actually over Topeka. The tempertaure in Manhattan Kansas has already dropped to 40 and upper 30's are already present in far North Central Kansas. The freezing line appears to have made to Lincoiln, Nebraksa or is right on its door step. I think Lawrence will go over to NW winds here in the next 2-3 hours and the temp. change will for sure be noticeable. It is so cool seeing these temp. changes and the wind shift lines. Any way, the cold air is plunging down-there are single digits in South Dakota and teens in Northern Nebraska.

2. On the satelite water vapor imagery, you can see (I think??) the second wave really getting its act together-the water vapor imagery is exploding and the radar is showing some pretty good returns in Oklahoma right now. It appears (again i think??) that the there is some spin beginning to develop in SE Colorado. The water vapor imagery is pretty cool watching the time lapse!!

3. The other interesting thing on the surface charts is the 1028 MB High in North Dakota that is pressing down pretty fast-there is for sure a cold air source clear and present. I'mnot sure if the models ever really showed this in yesterday's runs.

Just some observations from looking at a few things this evening. I mean this whole thing is kind of evolving/comming together right before our eyes-that is pretty cool!!! I just think it will be fun to follow this the next several hours and see how it all pans out-it is now cast time!!! I think one thing is that we do have a little better  winter event than the 0z Nam or Gfs showed us last night

Back to the surface charts-the 2Z should be out by now-wonder far the surface low has moved....

Bill in Lawrence

------------------------

Bill,

Yes, you can clearly see a spinning storm that has just formed due north of the 4 corners.  This is a very exciting development and could very well lead to a much more significant snowstorm.  As you said, either way this will be fascinating to watch unfold and I am going to have fun showing these new developments at 10 PM tonight.

Gary

I agree marlina, people said it'd be snowing all afternnon, all ngiht, all tuesday and it would stick! Drives me crazy!

I agree marlina, people said it'd be snowing all afternnon, all ngiht, all tuesday and it would stick! Drives me crazy!

Husky, if anything that would make it better until the front moves thru, then you want the rain to STOP until it gets close to freezing, or it takes to long TOO get to freezing. (caps substitute ittalics)