NBC Action Communities

I knew it , 2-4" in the metro

Nice tease...

!!! Fingers crossed!

You are teasing us with that brief message! =)

What do I think of the new NAM? I'm thinking that I'm annoyed that as soon as I make a prediction I'm second guessing it again... lol

Wait...

I've been through this before....

It's called trying to make weather forecasts for Kansas City!

(Trying to make your own hobbiest forecasts really makes you have more respect for what the professionals that are in it for a career - like Gary and team - do.)

Marlina, in response to your co-worker, a "Kansas City blizzard" is the potential for a dusting of snow with sustained winds of 10-mph for more than 37 seconds. LOL!!!

i think i just had a blood vessle burst in my head.

1-2 inches

Gary!!!!!!!!!!!!

Argh!  Tease!!!!  LOL

Well. I guess the freezing line switching over when fastest precip occurs. :)

I know I'm excites, last minute is the best, when can we use the RUC for snow totals?

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/READY_animations.php

You guys, its illeagal for him to lie about this (Or is it just for advertisements)! ;-)

someone is using the bathroom or taking a smoke break

someone is using the bathroom or taking a smoke break

here is an swer that gary wrote to one the guys in the other blog give u some idea

Bill,

Yes, you can clearly see a spinning storm that has just formed due north of the 4 corners.  This is a very exciting development and could very well lead to a much more significant snowstorm.  As you said, either way this will be fascinating to watch unfold and I am going to have fun showing these new developments at 10 PM

Gary:

I got Get Smarted again-even at night time LOL!!!!!

I'll leave it in the previous blog but I was just of noting some what I think are interesting things from the 1Z surface analysis and the water vapor imagery.

1. It loks as though the surface low of about 998 MB at 1Z was right over Topeka or just SW of it. Manhattan, Kansas is already down to 40 degrees and I think the freezing line is to Lincoiln, Nebraksa. There are also some single digits in South Dakota and teens in Northern Nebraska-the cold air is plunging south!! I would guess that Lawrence will go to NW winds in the next 3-4 hours.

2. The other thing on the surface charts is the 1029 MB High over North Dakota-I'mnot sure if the models ever picked up on this feature or not last night.

3. The water vapor imagery-man watching the time lapse of that-that secondary piece of energy is just exploding right now-pretty cool to watch!! I also think one can see the beginnings of a spin over the panhandle of Oklahoma

This is going to be a great strom to watch over the next several hours and in my very humble opinion, the neatest thing is that it is just evolving/comming together right now right before our eyes-really cool stuff!!!

I hope some of these make sense-I am just a hobbyist on a good day LOL!!! I think one thing for sure just by looking at the surface data and the satelite we have a little better winter event than the 0z models were showing last night!!

Well, back to the surface charts and radar (it is lighting up in SW Kansas and Oklahoma right now!!) and satelite-now cast time!!! The 2Z charts should be out-wonder how far the low has progressed...it doesn't take much to get me excited does it LOL!!!

Bill in Lawrence

what times during each day local time do the modles update i look at the modles at the noaa website and i am confused on when they update

Thats what I was doing. 1st one. I guess I win

more snow in the metro

The temputure just hit 60.1 degres in grandview!!!

Time to go home and track this storm! I'm at JCCC has my Final Exam for Comp. I, and I have my other final tomorrow for Introductory Algebra!!

any one intressted in weather and climate turn it on the discovery chanale

I bet Olathe gets atleast 4 inches. Lmao

 Were gonna get HIT HARD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

what about northern clay county

how do you know cheifsfan

As i said I am sticking with my 2-4" prediction for right now

why do you say that chiefsfan?

Not surprised really. I have seen several times where Gary and the team didn't think it was going to snow and then BAM- we got nailed.(Or we were supposed to get nailed for several days and then nothing.)  I think the last time was two years ago when they predicted "no snow this time" and then an hour or two later-"snowstorm in progress". Snowstorms are a pain to predict and Gary and the guys do an excellent job of trying to figure out what's going to happen. Now, can you give us guys down south a little bit of hope? ;)

Wow, this is crazy.

0Z NAM really jumping on board late.

Im not sure if im buying yet.

Lets wait for the GFS before we get crazy here....

 4-8 in metro KC

I already see the dry-slot in the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas!

What about Leavenworth?

chiefsfan,

Can you please show me exactly where u are getting that information.

...or are you just getting excited and wishcasting?

Well, the front is lurking out there somewhere between my house in SW Topeka and Manhattan.  Salina 40F, Manhattan 47F, both with northerly wind.  My house 50.9F with a south wind.

I am real interested in what the 0Z GFS has to say after seeing the 0Z NAM.  Mike

Oh my...this blog is addictive!!!  Fun too:)

Thanks everyone for making this fun.

DL

If the current storm hasn't shifted any, I think areas that were predicted to have snow will see snow and more of it.   For instance KC had 1" forecasted, that will probably jump to 1-4".  Just west of the state line amounts increased a bit, this is where a snowstorm will likely occur.  Just a thought.  Looking forward to it, see you at 10.

Simply unbelievable what the 12Z NAM is showing.  I can't believe it.  Will certainly be anxious for the next run...  This completely goes against what it had been showing all the way up to now. WOW!!  

Matt

andrew, so ur going to jccc ey? did u apply to MU, KU, or OU? Are u going to transfer to a university to get a degree in met? or what are u doing?

For what its worth.  I know these sights are more general then specific but....

The Weather channel now has 2-4 inches forecast for 66209 area code.  I believe they had about an inch earlier.  AccuWeather has been saying 1.4 to 1.7 inches the last 24 hours and hasn't changed.

Watch the totals go back up. I said that Last night that I would laugh if totals went back up.

matt how much are they saying for snow amounts i am stick with 1-2

wow its amazing how the mood of this blog fluctuates so fast! lol....a couple hours ago we were all bummed.....and now we are excited again....lol

I'lll wait till 10 and see what I'll believe

Yup.

this is me.. (discussion from NWS)
HAVE LEFT ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW. STARTING TO PERUSE THE NEW WRF
DATA COMING IN...WHICH HAS SOME CONCERNS FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY FROM KANSAS CITY TO MACON SOUTHWARD...FOR
THE AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.

Do you have link to the 12znam?  What is it saying?

crap i live in the northland were gonna get screwed

More snow to the SE than originally thought.   Those who we thought were going to get nothing, will end up getting the most.  

Never trust a model until its last run!    

The suspense waiting for the 10:00 p.m. forecast is killing me!

I am gonna get missed huh?? This stinks!!!!!!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

Teamster, how far north are you?

Wow this is unfolding right before our own eyes it will be intereting it looks like a nowcast situation tomorrow as Bill olluded to in his comment earlier.

00z NAM had the even the northland getting .17" moisture with below freezing temps - would equate to around 2" of snow.

00z NAM rolling in right now.

GFS TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!

about 5 miles south of smithville

This looks to be a much bigger event (according to the NAM) for the southern half of the viewing area.

Seems like the NWS is considering an upgrade...

Still want to see the GFS before jumping on board.

Looking at it up to 12 hours now. It already looks weaker than the NAM...

NBC ACTION WEATHER PLUS --- Gary did the forecast and said 1-3"

please enlighten our less literate amatuers what they guidance is predicting.  I am on southside of the city right about state line.  Thanks

marlina10, do you get ACTION WEATHER PLUS? Gary is on there with the forecast

Really these models have no clue it's going to be a nowcasting situation.

looks like the gfs is holding on to the precip a little longer. A uneducated but interested guess

1-3 thats it i waited ot hear this

as I recall. the gfs does poorly a lot of times with depicting and accurately placing bands, that is just what I remember from the last couple of winters I have been reading models.

Good evening again!! Just a few more random observations:

1. Looking at the 3Z surface data it appears that the front has passed Topeka or is for sure right on Topeka's door step. Almost all readings in Nebraska are now ranging from 34 in the far SE corner to a few single digits/low teens in northern Nebraska.  

2. The radar is really lighting up-it appears the first batch of rain is heading towards the southern areas of the metro-not sure if Lawrence will get the first batch as it appears the rain is moving NE but ahead of the front-the front may be too close to Lawrence-sure as I type this it will start pouring LOL!!! Also, the returns are really getting going out in Colorado and SW Kansas.

3. Looking at the infra-red stelite imagery-the cloud tops are really intensifying in the 4 corners region-man-a cool time lapse!!

4. Looking at the 0Z RUC-I wonder about it's intitialization as it did not really pick up on the high pressure system sitting over North Dakota that was shown on the 0z surface charts-just an observation.

This is just really fun to watch evolve right now-the winds have really picked up here in SW Lawrence-still from the south but have really increased.

Fun times!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

GFS is in, and is weaker than the 0Z NAM run.

1-3 looks good, IMO.

If the NAM is corrrect, maybe more in spots.

Would like to see the 06Z NAM to see if it continues this trend....

acutally 1-3 is higher than what Gary expected earlier.

I forcasted (stab in the dark) two days ago 2-3 inches in the northland (wishful thinking) and will stick with that.

Crossing my fingers, toes, and everything else that my choice of 12/9 for the snowflake contest is a winner!  

Right now, we have mid 50 degree temps with warm moist air streaming in.  We have circulation at the four corners..and have cold air nearing the area.

Sounds fun!

well this was a complete waste of an hour and a half **************** Teamster, I love your blog participation, but I had to delete a word or two from one of your posts. Just keep in mind we have people of all ages on the blog. Carry on... Jeremy

I wonder what the special graphics are. It could change again also winter weather is impossible to forecast

Here in SW Topeka my temp has actually risen slightly in the last 30 minutes to 52.0F (from 50.9F) and still a south wind.  As Bill notes, I believe the front is getting pretty close to here and I am expecting it to pass soon...

Well it is nice and warm here in Lee's Summit. It is 57 degrees, I love the warmth, but it sucks for snow. But we all know how quickly the temps can drop around here. Time will tell what happens. I am really interested in all the latest chat about developments as I live just SE of the metro.

Northland looks to be almost competely left out, as far as snow potential goes.

Maybe an inch north of downtown KC??

****

56 degrees in leavenworth as we head into the 10pm hour actually up a couple of degrees this evening still a south wind.

I wish we could skip the news and get to whats important

See you tomorrow Teamster...

Only in Kansas

not sure if it was already asked but where exactly is the freezing like from kci?  

Freezing line is advancing concordia,ks 10pm observation 37 degrees north wind gusting to 23 mph.

Live chat anyone?  ;-)

Not going to get my hopes up yet, but being on the southeast side I am so ready for a nice snow!! I have been so bummed thinking we are not going to get a dusting, and now there is the "possibility" we may get some measurable snow. Come on Gary, give the people on the SE side of the metro some good news! :)

Man-looking at the water vapor imagery-some big thunder boomers just exploded in between Dallas and the Red River Valley-they are in a severe thunder storm watch-wow-on the water vapor imagery those things just went boom-amazing!!

I think-think being the optimum word here-that the important thing to look at is the spin that has developed over the 4 corners and the increase in higher cloud tops out there-there is quite a bit of snow in Colorado and even SW Kansas is having radar retruns. Will be interesting to see how this second wave progresses. I'm not sure if the models (NAM aside maybe-I have not taken a look at the models-too much fun watching this on satelite!!) really got the data into them that has this development. Just a random thought that is prob. really really off base!!

The other item for Lawrence is the current radar returns-the rain is missing us to the south at the moment-I wonder if that will not be the case for the second wave as well-maybe these returns for the first wave are kind of showing the path and that this may be an event where Baldwin gets 2-4 and Lawrence gets a few flurries-just kind of thinking out loud.

No matter-this is awesome to watch develop-and again, it is happening right in front of us!! As Specoli would say-Awesome, totally Awesome!!!

Bill in Lawrence

Scott:

A live chat would be pretty cool-if I can remember my pass word LOL

Bill in Lawrence

After the 10pm forcast,can someone sum up what Gary said? I can't watch it I am @ work. Thanks Alex

Still need that snow line to shift a little farther southeast!  

fornal. basically around 3 inches for KC. 1-2 inches south, and north.

Scott,

How do I get in on this live chat??

lrcweather.com is live chat

LRCfan, you live in leavenworth? Just curious if i saw it right, should be about 2.6 inches for us? ***************** Gary showed specific totals, but overall he went 1-3" for this storm. I wouldn't lock in on 2.5". Could be a little either way. Jeremy

where on there is the live chat

if this storm increases in energy more overnight, does that mean that the snow amounts will be more?

I'm basically asking the same question but were you being shy at all on your snow amounts and is there a chance that this storm could potentially produce more than 3 inches or is 1 to 3 inches really what your thinking?

lvsnow thats the way it was predicted hopefully it will be more

bewild79-did you figure out the livechat?

no I am not so sure where it is on there....

click on scotts name
then it shud be on front page
or go to www.lrcweather.com

it doesnt for some reason use flash player or anything huh?  Mine is messed up in my computer and when I go to the lrc page I am not seeing a spot for chat

I think it does use flash

wonderful....my computer for some reason wont let flash player work and when I try to uninstall it and/or reinstall it, it wont work.....

Try using a different web browser.  If you are using IE try firefox.  www.getfirefox.com

I think the problem is in my computer but will that fix it?

WOW !!! Live chat is hard to follow.

man all these people in here and not too much being said.  Is everyone depressed or something?

my computer sucks

The live chat might be interesting if it was readable. Waaay too small even when I zoomed to 400%.

Ive had no problems with viewing the live chat...

What a fantastic Idea...

:)

Here ya go Becky - this might be interesting ...

http://www.grib2.com/wrf/CENTRAL_WRF_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_48HR.gif

Rick-that needs to shift to the southeast! :)

I think a 3" inches is a good bet, however as fast as this last model run produced, you can't help but wonder if we may be in store for more.  
But it could go poof just as fast, but we won't talk about that... " )

LOL at that map rick....

:)

Braysmamma / Brett34  ... given that this "third wave" has just recently been picked up by the models, anything is possible even though the event is only 12-18 hrs away.

Yep, Adam, once again KC is right on the line between nothing and 8 inches!

One can dream can't they Adam? :)

Wow with that latest graphic it shows a more narrower band, but higher amounts.  As long as there are heavy totals for Johnson County I am happy.

Rick what model is that map from? and what are your predictions for tomorrow

Rick,

I do agree with your philosphy that the 3rd wave has just been recently picked up by the models. Im with you on that.

However, I am VERY skeptical that the kind of strength that model is depiciting will ever be realized..

a THIRD wave? For us?

You're probably right, Adam. Unfortunately, that map was from 12Z yesterday. I goofed. However, it's interesting that the 5km WRF saw it like that even yesterday.

Rick-yes, anything is possible. I doubt that map is true though. I'd say at this point it's just wishful thinking. But, who know's.......   :)

was that the most recent graphic that rick showed?

This is the most recent from the GFS (posted by someone else earlier). Sorry for the confusion. It's a little too late!

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX

LOL yeah i understand Rick. is anyone else stayin up until the NAM comes out?

lol, Rick

Looks MUCH more realistic...

And here is the 03z RUC (Scott likes this model) ...

http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_dev/.//+snwtot+nc+24

That's total snowfall from 9am - 9pm tomorrow.

KansasPatriot - I believe Gary has mentioned three waves with this "storm": the one happening right now, the one that pushes the front through in a few hours and then the development back over the four corners region that comes thru by tomorrow afternoon.

Ah ok I got ya rick.  I thought the 2nd one that brought the cold air WAS the final snow maker.


This sure is a good year for Western Michigan if you are a snow lover up there.

I would stay up and wait this out, but the nyquil is really kicking in and my bed is screaming for me. On that note, will drop in tomorrow morning and re-evaluate things then.

Well im dying to see if the 06Z run of the NAM stays consistent with its 0Z version.

Will be waiting up another hour to see its results....

haha adam im with u. do u want to let me know what it says when it comes out lol?

adam pleasue update when you check it.  I will be up.  I have been watching some interesting climate change shows on Discovery channel.

Enjoy the 06z ... as well as the snow tomorrow! G'Night all.

I will let everyone know.

No prob...

:)

For what it is worth... the cold front has now moved through St. Joe, winds are gusting out of the northwest and we are having drizzle, my digital thermometer is reading 40.3 degrees, and places in southeast Neb. are already below freezing!!

Nick,

I think thats about right on schedule I believe. Temperatures in your areas should be near freezing by 4-5 a.m.

Is there any new news?

Not at this point Jonathan.


The new NAM comes out about 40 minutes...

Just waiting till about 2am for some new results

ahhh 30 minutes

Lawrence temp is falling fast.. 52.3 at 1:10  and is now 46 at 1:30.. Still around 54 here in OP though.

New BLOG

Kinda updated anyway

New NAM beginning to roll in now...

Viagra hgh. Re viagra cello.