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A cold morning....December 10, 2008

Meet the NBC Action News team at area Walmarts this weekend.  Stormy the weather dog and I will be at the one at 135th & State line.  It is the Santa Cause so bring a toy or buy one at Walmart and say hi!  We will be signing autographs and we will have some free stuff to give away.  See you on Saturday!     http://www.nbcactionnews.com/content/santacause/default.aspx

Good morning weather bloggers,

Before we get started I would like to thank everyone who utilized the NBC Action Weather Blog as one of your ways to stay in touch as yesterday's storm developed and moved through. We try very hard to keep you updated in many ways with Kansas City's best and most accurate information.  We had over 250,000 hits on the NBC Action News website yesterday (24,000 on our blog alone).  Our weather team works very hard to make this blog experience not only fun, but educational and informative and this is why we provide you with so many updates during the day.  Here is a picture from one of our bloggers, Jacob Honeycut in Lee's Summit.  More snow fell in Lee's Summit yesterday than in any one storm all last winter season:

It is a cold start to the day with many icy slick spots leftover from yesterdays storm.  Please be careful and give yourself some extra time to get around today.  Conditions will improve dramatically on the roads after the sun will help melt some of the ice & snow even with temperatures staying below freezing..   The sky cleared out and temperatures have dropped to near 10 degrees this morning. It will be a sunny and cold December day.  Here are some snowfall totals from yesterday:

  • Paola, KS:  4.0"
  • Blue Springs, MO:  4.0"
  • Lee's Summit, MO:  3.7"
  • Overland Park, KS:  2.5"
  • The Plaza, MO (KSHB-TV):  2.2"
  • Marceline, MO:  1.5"
  • Lawrence, KS:  1.0"

The weather pattern continues to cycle and the LRC is a complex one this year.  We believe this latest storm was a weaker and more disorganized version of one that affected us around October 20th.  Go to www.LRCWeather.com as we go into some of the amazing parts of this years weather pattern that is complex, unique, and cycling.  There is much more to it than just one comparison.  We posted on the LRC blog today some comparisons of parts of this weather pattern that are obviously repeating, and related to each other.  Just look at today's 500 mb map compared to the map below.  Can you see the comparison?

The above map is valid this evening, and the below map is the weather pattern from November 14th.  It isn't just the fact that the pattern is cycling at around 48 to 55 days, but that we have these "long term" longwaves that are unique to this years weather pattern.  Once again go to www.LRCWeather.com for a great discussion on these other aspects to my theory the LRC.

So, what is next?  There is a disturbance that we are watching for Friday. And, an Arctic front will be on our doorstep Saturday night or Sunday.  This is a strong one.  Look below at the forecast temperatures for Sunday:

All of the areas in white are 20 to 40 degrees below zero.  Did you know that -40°F  is the same as -40°C?  0°C is the same as 32°F which is freezing.  Here is the formula: 

°C  x  9/5 + 32 = °F

(°F  -  32)  x  5/9 = °C

So, when we say it is -40 degrees, well it is not just cold but one of those very interesting weather facts that is rarely ever talked about.  And, it is going to be that cold or colder soon across Canada.  This air mass will become very dense and we won't be able to stop it from getting here.  The ETA is Sunday.  Next week will turn very cold, but will there be snow, sleet, freezing rain? 

We will talk about this potential in the blog in the coming days.  Watch NBC Action News as we track these winter developments today and tonight.  Jeremy Nelson is filling in for Brett Anthony the next week and a half.  Don't forget our 11 AM Midday show.  And, I will keep you updated on NBC Action News at 5, 6, and 10 PM tonight.

Gary

Published Wednesday, December 10, 2008 5:38 AM by glezak

Comments

 

boootz said:

I really hope this snow storm was an indication of things to come and the south  side gets the snow this year and we get to sit up North and complain we got none...lol
December 10, 2008 6:14 AM
 

bulldog said:

I saw a post yesterday from someone who had moved to Northern Mich, (my hometown is up there). I guess they are having the kind of winter we hadn't seen since I was a kid - we'll give that around 20+ years.  Last I heard they had 4ft!  Haven't called the family yet, does anyone know how much they have now?  Sooo..can we start anylizing for Monday?  Would love snow for Christmas then it can go away after the first of the year. We got enough snow here to cover the yard. The grass still shows through the fields however and the walks are VERY

********************

So far this season Marquette, MI has recorded 61.1" of snow.  They average about 172" a winter.

I will disagree on the point they haven't had a real winter in 20 years.  When I lived there in 2000-01 that winter there was 272" of snow...a record.  Then just a couple of years later that record was broken as over 300" of snow fell.  There have been plenty of real winters up there in the last 10 years.

Jeremy

December 10, 2008 6:15 AM
 

bulldog said:

Oops didn't get that finished...walks are very icy.  The Sibley update.
December 10, 2008 6:16 AM
 

spotter said:

well good morning gary well was it a cold walk this morning with the dogs well st joseph missed the snow compared to last year so in your thoughts is this the way its going to be this winter more snow south less in nw mo this year.have a great day!

----------------

No way!  I believe you will get hit by some this year. If this were a well organized storm and produced a snow pattern like we just saw, then I would be concerned for more just like it this winter.  I am expecting other more organized upper level storm systems and various set-ups that will not leave you missing the snow.

Gary

December 10, 2008 6:21 AM
 

FlakeFan said:

3.8" at Johnson Conty Executive Aiport.
December 10, 2008 6:24 AM
 

weatherwyco said:

BRRRR is all I can say! We have dropped down to 9 here in KCK this morning. Looking forward to a possible storm next week!

Bryan
December 10, 2008 6:30 AM
 

weatherwunder said:

My sentiments exactly, Bootz, regarding the amount of the snow for Leavenworth for the winter.  It's so beautiful, but last year it did feel like too much of a good thing!  But I will add that I prefer snow to a freezing rain or ice storm any day!

Gary and Team, thanks for all the great forecasting for this storm.

Edna

***************

Edna,

I'm not a winter lover, but even I will take snow over ice! 

Jeremy

December 10, 2008 6:30 AM
 

NotesInTheMargin said:

Gary,

You mentioned that you believe yesterday's storm was analogous to around October 20th (which was really just a bit of a wave on 10/20/08:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_081020_00.gif) , that would imply that the big storm that closed off and sat over us, giving us a couple of inches of widespread rain just a few days later - around October 22nd-24th - should be coming back very soon, should it not?  As in tomorrow and into the weekend?!?

October 24th (~50 days ago):  
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_081024_00.gif

THAT was one whopper of a storm system, I think everyone can agree...and looked pretty different than any part of this week...how does it specifically fit into your cycling theory?

I'm curious about that specific storm and how it fits in your theory since it doesn't appear to be showing up anytime in the near future.

--------------------------

This was very related to that storm Notes!  A few years ago we had a huge December snowstorm with 11 inches over parts of the KC metro area.  And, then the next time through the cycle, instead of a big upper low, it was just a shortwave moving across North Dakota.  It isn't always a perfect comparison.  The flow aloft is much, much stronger than it was in October when that storm got caught under the main jet stream and cut-off.  This time through it didn't have a chance of doing it. The LRC is very complex!

Gary

December 10, 2008 6:46 AM
 

chfs327 said:

Discussion out of St. Louis NWS,
THE FAVORED ECMWF AND CMC GEM
ARE SHOWING A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA SOMETIME
ON MONDAY WITH A POTENTIAL ICE STORM ENSUING AS SHALLOW COLD AIR
INVADES THE MID MS VLY. STAY TUNED.

*********************

Someone else posted that yesterday...or something like it.  I wouldn't start to worry yet, but there is a mixed bag in the forecast next week.

Jeremy

December 10, 2008 7:21 AM
 

bulldog said:

Jeremy, I agree with you on the real winter thing, meant to relay the kind of winters I remember.  No stats there that I have.  I will say I spent one winter in Marquette and my goodness the snow up there was much more significant than our home town south of the bridge! Actually I remember some of the biggest snows of all being at the end of winter. I missed the snow for the first few years here but now I truly enjoy our warmer sunnier days in Missouri.  Emphasis on sunny! Per my Dad, Ann Arbor has had nothing but rain for days.  It was turning last night.

********************

Living near the Great Lakes can lead to a lot of cloudy days!  I don't miss those.

Jeremy

December 10, 2008 7:46 AM
 

frigate said:

Gary and Weather Team,

Thanks for all your hard work and timely updates. As always you guys are the best and nailed the forecast...though for me as one who hates snow and cold, I would have been happy if you had been wrong!! lol Took me 90 minutes to get home in Grain Valley yesterday vs the normal 25, so I am with Jeremy on not being a snow lover. Looks like a good area of T-storms down in the SE part of the country today, wish I was there. Sounds like next week will be interesting, so I will be anxiously watching the news and the blog for further updates. As always...Keep up the good work!!! : -)

Jeff  
December 10, 2008 8:12 AM
 

kane1970 said:

So Should we expect to see a possible stom in January 28-30? About 50 days from now. What will be different about the climate that will change this storm? Thanks for all of the updates all day yesterday! It made it so much easier to know what to expect. Not that I didn't already based on your forecast. Thanks again!

******************

I'll let you know January 31;)

Thanks for stopping by the blog for the updates yesterday!

Jeremy

December 10, 2008 8:22 AM
 

morrell said:

For the life of me I can not figure out what's so great about this weather.  How anyone enjoy's this crap is beyond comprehension to me.  Any chance of an early spring?  

------------

I know Jeremy agrees with you, but not me.  Maybe it is growing up in Southern California or something.  I wouldn't mind if it snowed every day for 90 days in a row.  Then I would be ready for spring.  Winter is my favorite season, and don't get me wrong.  I love a 72 degree day too!

Gary

December 10, 2008 8:35 AM
 

mamaof3girls said:

Brrrrrrr this am...my girls were almost late to school cause I did not want to get out of my warm bed...LOLOL, I love mornings like this! We ended up with about 1/4 inch of snow and have a nice layer of sleet that everyone is slipping around on. I am looking forward to next week and what it might bring. Maybe next time I can get enough snow for the girls to play in....but in the mean time what we do have sure looks pretty. Rest up weather team! Great job keeping us all informed.
Monica
Pleasanton
December 10, 2008 8:43 AM
 

weatherwunder said:

What's so great to me about this weather is that I don't have to be concerned about tornados!  Yet, some people get real excited and chase storms--not my cup of tea.  Our common bond on the blog is that we all are extremely interested in weather, and it makes somebody happy no matter kind of weather it is.  I love the weather blog, and I check it frequently, especially during inclement weather.  I enjoy reading all of the comments, of course!  Edna
December 10, 2008 8:46 AM
 

sedsinkc said:

Gary and team, great work forecasting yesterday's snowfall.  Expecting the coldest day so far this fall in N Tx with highs barely making it to 40 today, but the sun will be out so it won't feel as bad as yesterday.  Saw a few ice pellets yesterday evening as an area of light rain was exiting, but temps were in the mid 30s.  Wondering how the anticipated Arctic air mass for next week will impact N Texas.  If the Arctic airmass reaches N Texas and any disturbances come in from the Pacific giving us SW flow aloft, there is a good chance of some ice here.  Given the drought conditions increasing in Texas, I doubt we'd get much ice, but it only takes a little to cause problems on bridges.  Several days off yet and in the meantime it should get back to 70 or above over the weekend, which will feel great after yesterday and today!
December 10, 2008 8:46 AM
 

weatherdancer said:

Gary, Jeremey, Jeff:

Hey--we need to look at next Monday.  Neil Diamond is at the Sprint Center.  I, among thousands from our area will be headed there.  Any shot this precip bag will hold off til midnight tuesday morning or so?????  Do you really think it might be ice?????

------------------

Not yet!  We haven't made that call yet.  We will get more specific today after the new data comes in.   And, Neil Diamond is one of  my favorites.  Have a great time.

Gary

December 10, 2008 8:48 AM
 

mamaof3girls said:

Because the wind was blowing so much I could not get a good measurement. So I melted my snow in my rain guage and the liquid amount was .04 inches. What does that come out to.....a dusting?? I have no clue!!
Monica
Pleasanton
December 10, 2008 8:51 AM
 

boootz said:

You know you might be a weather redneck, when you melt your snow to see how much there was...laffing*...just kidding Monica
December 10, 2008 8:56 AM
 

twister11 said:

monica if i did my math right it would come out to .4 of snow.
December 10, 2008 9:02 AM
 

Gant said:

A meteorologist on another station last night predicted a two day long major ice storm for Kansas City next Sunday/Monday.  Can anyone validate this?  If we've got a major arctic blast this weekend, wouldn't it be too cold for ice at that point?

*******************

The arctic air probably doesn't arrive until late Sunday or early next week.  As for other stations I don't know or care what they forecast...just being honest.

Jeremy

December 10, 2008 9:02 AM
 

mamaof3girls said:

I know boootz....that is what I was thinking, LOLOL. That is what the CoCoRAHS website says you can do though. I just could not get a good measurement there as so little. :o)
Monica
December 10, 2008 9:10 AM
 

MikeandJenn said:

Jeremy,

Will you and the weather team be at the Lee's Summit Wal-Mart location this Saturday?  I work at that location and would love to come out and say hi to you and the team.

Mike

********************

Mike,

I will be at the Walmart at K-7 & Sante Fe in Olathe from 8 a.m.-Noon.  I believe Gary is at the Walmart on state line.  You may want to ask him what time though.

Jeremy

December 10, 2008 9:10 AM
 

chfs327 said:

Gant. I know who said that. But right now I dont trust him saying that. Just wait Patiencly. If I can hold off acouple of days with saying ***. Then you can too. Just wait. If there is, Then oh well.
December 10, 2008 9:17 AM
 

krisz said:

Gary,

What time will you and Stormy be at the Walmart on Stateline on Saturday?  It would be fun to come out and meet you and Stormy!  I really enjoy the weather blog.

Kris
December 10, 2008 9:21 AM
 

pvt_murphy said:

its way to early to be thinking about any potential ice storms...
that being said, two winters ago we had a rather significant icing event over a weekend with temperatures in the low teens.  i had never seen it rain at such a cold temperature before.  so, when it comes to icing its not so much about whether its arctic air or not, its about the depth of the cold air.  thus far this season, the cold air has been pretty deep.  lets see if that continues.
December 10, 2008 9:26 AM
 

mamaof3girls said:

Thanks Twister11....that seemed easy enough, figured it would be more complicated than that! LOL!! Shows what I know.
Monica
December 10, 2008 9:29 AM
 

bewild79 said:

Yea I would rather any of these storms to fall over the weekend when I don't have to worry about driving in them.

All the roads I drove on were either wet or dry with no ice. So that was a blessing.  All my doors were frozen shut though on my car.  Made hubby open those!  

Hope everyone stays warm today!
Becky
December 10, 2008 9:32 AM
 

marlina10 said:

Brrrrr! That's all I can say about this morning. At least I didn't have to scrape off my car, that would've just added to the misery. Will the snow stick around until the arctic blast next week or will it get warm enough for it to melt by then? I hope it stays, it's beautiful and adds to the Christmas spirit!
December 10, 2008 9:57 AM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

"..I wouldn't mind if it snowed every day for 90 days in a row..."

Amen Gary!! I would like 200" please!! :D


Jeremy,

I live close to the K7 walmart, I live right by Olathe North HS. I just have to go down to Spruce St, and take it all the way there! Maybe I'll be able to come out, I'm sure we'll have to go to Walmart sometime Saturday, my mom lives at walmart!! :)

******************

Andrew,

It would be fun to meet you and Brandon.

Jeremy

December 10, 2008 10:14 AM
 

95rred said:

Is artic air invading us a good thing for us snow lovers. I have always thought it was good because it put cold air in place ( seems like alot of storms in winter we have had all the ingreidents for snow except cold air )But know I am getting the feeling it might not be so great for snow. Seems like we get  freezing rain with artic air,and does the invasion of artic air push storms away from us? I am guessing it  depends on the atmosphere that is already in place when the artic air arrives.

******************

We'll have to see how deep the cold air layer is.  Also, what type of moisture is available for any disturbance to work with.

Jeremy

December 10, 2008 10:25 AM
 

kcwxguy said:

pvt - remember a previous discussion about the active WAA this year?  ;-)  

Jeremy - good know now which Wal-Mart you will be at.  Will you be a greeter or working at the snack bar?

LOL

Notes - good questions.  I think my blog today answers many if not all of your questions.
December 10, 2008 10:29 AM
 

Brent said:

" station last night predicted a two day long major ice storm for Kansas City next Sunday/Monday"

can I ask who said that?

because last year one station predicted that quite far out and we had that near miss ice storm that it warmed up to 32 and we didn't get all the ice...either way it seems like its not too hard to predict Ice storms 4 or 5 days out...

I know the weather team won't tell us much on the subject till a few days before...but I like to be ready...and sometimes an early guess turns out to be the right one...

Just look at this last storm...we went from a possibility of snow to a snowstorm, then under an inch...then the day of the storm we went up to 1-3 inches! It really just depends on if bands of snow develop and where they move...It was virtually impossibly to nail down snow totals on a storm like that and I think the weather team did a great job.

Brent

*********************

Brent,

How much snow did you end up with...1"?

Jeremy

December 10, 2008 10:45 AM
 

KansasPatriot said:

Did anyone see how far south that snow went into Texas? My goodness what a strong push south that cold air did.   AUSTIN got a trace of snow in Texas, and the south is alive with severe weather alerts all over the place.
December 10, 2008 10:47 AM
 

JPnKC said:

24.000 hits on the blog!!!! WOW!! Congrats to you GARY and your team for making this work- this is truly amazing!!! I thought the storm was awesome yesterday- snow in the Plains and tornados in the South- wow!!

JP
December 10, 2008 11:07 AM
 

Brent said:

not quite an Inch Jeremy.....about .85.

If we had not gotten that last band that moved through it would have been less than 1/4th

********************

Thanks for the total.

Jeremy

December 10, 2008 11:19 AM
 

Gant said:

Brent... without advertising a competitor, let's just say it was the "foxy" station during the 5 PM weather cast.
December 10, 2008 11:42 AM
 

twinkiekid said:

I saw that forecast too and decided to save my last sick day for next week instead of staying home today with my son.  Now I look at the models and I wonder what he was talking about.  Maybe all will work out and I can have that day next week afterall.
December 10, 2008 11:59 AM
 

MCIRamp said:

Hey Jeremy,

20 degrees has never felt so warm! Did I just say that? The snow is almost gone here at the International Airport. Amazing what bright Sun can do in subfreezing temperatures. I dig the sublimation and salt. ;)

I shall enjoy this weekend in shorts with an ice cold cola in the lawnchair! It will feel like summer to me! I'd rather smell the polar bears at the zoo if I have to smell them at all...

Great job yesterday, I was able to sneak in a few peeks at the blog while mother nature added to my job stress! LOL!

Take it easy!
December 10, 2008 12:09 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Looking forward to a new storm to follow. I know that Gary and Jeremy will keep us with it all the way through. as for those foxy people I don't even listen to them. NBC Action Weather is ALL I TRUST. should I say In NBC ACTION NEWS we trust. hehe. have a great day everybody. And gary and Jeremy...try not to tease us so much with your little teasers. LOL
December 10, 2008 12:14 PM
 

Brent said:

lol same station that forecasted an ice storm last year....well thats enough about ice and other stations..I'm done,

Brent
December 10, 2008 12:17 PM
 

weather28 said:

pretty sure it was freezing yesterday i love winter and am hoping for a lovely snowy winter this year?
is this winter suppost to be a snowy one?

Paige
December 10, 2008 12:28 PM
 

bewild79 said:

stop saying the I word lol
December 10, 2008 12:33 PM
 

pmccabe58 said:

Hey Jeremy I know you really wont talk about next weeks system yet but can you say if it looks like ice or not? I love snow, but ice can be fun too!

Phillip
December 10, 2008 12:38 PM
 

ScottR said:

yes lets have Jeremy make the "I" word a prohibited word so it only comes up as *** when someone says it ;)
December 10, 2008 12:45 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

Let's do another contest of some sort.  A contest is a fun thing to keep going. The winner gets a digital/solar powered back deck weather station from the weather team, or perhaps a free LRC PERSONALIZED forecast for their business Spring/summer 2009 (if applicable). That is something I could use myself actually.




December 10, 2008 12:48 PM
 

twister11 said:

Is there a contest for the first inch of ***? I picked the 16!!!
December 10, 2008 1:04 PM
 

bewild79 said:

lol.....scottr, that is a good idea!  lol
December 10, 2008 1:20 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

So, if I mentioned the word "blizzard", would that then be a defacto forecast for people to ask about for a week?  How about "wind" or "rain"?

Point is, just because the word is mentioned - it doesn't mean it is accurate or credible.  It is Winter - rain, snow, ice, and wind are all elements experienced during this time.

I feel certain that when this team is confident in an upcoming situation, they will communicated it as soon as it is known.  They have been very consistent in putting out what they believe when they believe it.  

I think certainly, one thing in play for early next week is a rush of cold air.  Potentially, very cold air.  We have known this potential for a week or two [in noting its mention in prior entries]

If a surface push of cold air arrives and IF moisture is present, then those are two factors of many that may yield some type of event.  Lift and other factors are necessary as well.  

For freezing rain, you need to have instability and inversion aloft falling into a cold air mass as the surface.  The actual precipitation will depend on the depth of the air masses and the quality of the moisture available.

So..is ice possible?  Sure, at some point in this Winter, I am sure it will be something considered.

;-)
December 10, 2008 1:29 PM
 

radman22 said:

While I would enjoy meeting you Jeremy, Walmart on a Saturday 2 weeks before X-Mas sounds a bit much for me.     Great cause though and I hope you meet many fellow bloggers and viewers.    

Will Gary be on during the 11am news or will Jeff or Brett be in studio?

Was a nice surprise to see you on early filling in for Brett.   I was just getting ready to go to bed!!!   Crazy hours

December 10, 2008 1:35 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Ok. Ill be a Brave guy.

Brent said. can I ask who said that?

Ill tell you right now. M.T.FX

December 10, 2008 1:36 PM
 

bewild79 said:

scott,
i was meaning it like a jinx. lol You are correct about the team and I have every belief that they will follow through with us on the weather.  I just don't like it when we get ice (and I know there are alot of people out there that don't either).  I am looking forward to another day that I can sit at home and follow the storms that are coming in as long as I don't have to drive in it.  It was pretty fun participating in a very busy day on the blog.
Becky
December 10, 2008 1:37 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Also. This is Reminding me off that event. This is what a Weather Center said for 2002 ice Storm

An Arctic front moved slowly southward into the Central Plains from January 29 to 30, resulting in a shallow layer of cold air near the surface. Meanwhile, a strong southwesterly jet stream began transporting a large surge of moist air with connections to the tropical Pacific. A strong temperature boundary developed, separating the warm, moist airmass across the southern U.S. from the colder, drier airmass to the north. As surface impulses moved along the frontal boundary, the stage was set for a widespread variety of winter weather. An upper level low progressing eastward across the central Pacific provided the added ingredients for a prolonged precipitation event.

Lets seen what we got.

Slow moving artic Front... Check

Southwestern Jet Stream bringing Moisture to Area next week... Check

Stations saying Widespread varity of Precip. Check

Stations saying a Prolonged Event... Check

;) We will see.
December 10, 2008 1:41 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

I just hope it's a big storm regardless of event...but I say...GO SLEET! I LOVE sleet! I want 6 inches of sleet! am I allowed to say sleet?
December 10, 2008 1:57 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

 
KansasPatriot said:
Let's do another contest of some sort.  A contest is a fun thing to keep going. The winner gets a digital/solar powered back deck weather station from the weather team, or perhaps a free LRC PERSONALIZED forecast for their business Spring/summer 2009 (if applicable). That is something I could use myself actually.


That's a Great IDEA!!
December 10, 2008 2:17 PM
 

mamaof3girls said:

That weather station sounds really cool but VERY expensive! I would take a tour of the weather center instead. How about that?? :o)
Monica
Pleasanton
December 10, 2008 2:28 PM
 

bewild79 said:

that is a good idea monica!!
Becky
Parkville
December 10, 2008 2:38 PM
 

backwoods said:

Artic cold definitly on the move south late in the weekend. Devils Lake forecast HI for Fri. 23. LO 15. Sat. HI 19. LO -3. Sun. Hi -2. LO -12. So this artic air should be here Sun. night or early Mon. morning. Is the moisture going to be here????
December 10, 2008 2:53 PM
 

Darkwolfe said:

Someone was asking about late January earlier, I won't feel so bad about wondering about Jan. 9th then.  I've got an early flight out of winter for a week that day and road conditions will be a factor on when we leave the house for the airport.
December 10, 2008 2:55 PM
 

backwoods said:

Thats Devils Lake, North Dakota
December 10, 2008 2:59 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

Well after reviewing the 12Z run of the models. It appears that we do not need to become to worried about ***...YET.

Correct me if im wrong, but it looks cold of enough for snow here in the metro, and in fact, the 12Z run of the GFS gives the southern hallf of the metro a similiar snow storm to the one we had yesterday....

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX


Also, after reading some of the area wide afternoon NWS AFD's, it does appear that Springfield is getting a little concerned about a possible *** storm.

This from the NWS in Springfield, MO


WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS STILL FOUR TO FIVE DAYS OUT...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS ALSO INCREASING THAT THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL BE QUITE COLD NEAR THE SURFACE. THE BIG QUESTION RIGHT NOW
IS HOW DEEP THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL BE AS IT WILL HAVE MAJOR
CONSEQUENCES ON PRECIPITATION TYPE. AT THIS TIME ALL TYPES OF
WINTRY PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT...INCLUDING SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW. THE MORE SHALLOW THE COLD AIR...THE MORE LIKELY
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK. A DEEPER COLD AIRMASS WILL
RESULT IN PRECIP TYPE TRENDING TO MORE SLEET AND/OR SNOW. GIVEN
THE OUTPUT FROM THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...ACCUMULATING
WINTRY PRECIP IS LIKELY GIVEN THE CONSENSUS. AREA INTERESTS WILL
NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR EACH FORECAST UPDATE AS ACCUMULATING
ICE...SLEET AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
LASTING PERIODICALLY INTO MIDWEEK.


Should be interesting to watch....
December 10, 2008 3:00 PM
 

bewild79 said:

Gary did say there would be one *** storm this season but it would be southeast of here.....hopefully it doesn't decide to come this way instead.
Becky
Parkville
December 10, 2008 3:18 PM
 

ScottR said:

Well if they want the *** storm in Springfield have at it... that just means we get a puff of snow like last time. :D  You would think given their recent history they would want anything but that.  Yes yes I know, they are not asking for it just advising that it may happen.

But maybe that is their point.  When you hype something up it never happens... And when you play something down it tends to be bigger than first thought.  Hmm.
December 10, 2008 3:26 PM
 

ScottR said:

Adam,

That is 120 hour GFS correct?  So that would still leave a possibility for more accumulation beyond that time frame of 120 hours right?  Or am I out of it?
December 10, 2008 3:37 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

ScottR,

You are correct. Anything beyond 120 hours is not figured into that snowfall projection.
December 10, 2008 3:54 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

I'm sorry but I just have to get this out from under my skin...

If the "I" word is a bad word, shouldn't snow be a bad word as well? This is a weather blog - and I would assume that means we are supposed to be able to talk about the weather. Snow, ice, rain, sleet, hail, tornadoes, hurricanes, severe thunderstorms, etc. whithout having to censor our own typing.

We live in the midwest - we get all sorts of weather. Get used to it!
December 10, 2008 4:00 PM
 

ScottR said:

Thanks Adam.  So that would mean witht he threat of a prolonged storm beyond Sun. night and Monday we could see addition accumulation, assuming the GFS is correct... which is a huge assumption this far out.
December 10, 2008 4:01 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

i'm with foodl3.  
December 10, 2008 4:11 PM
 

LRCfan said:

wow,winter storm watches in alabama for 1-3 inches that might shut them down down there. lol
December 10, 2008 4:18 PM
 

ScottR said:

To all of you taking exception to the banishment of a certain 3 letter word for frozen water... Its a joke.  It is not a dirty word... its not banned... its a joke...

No one likes ice.  Impossible to drive on, amazingly destructive... I would much rather have 6-10 inches of snow than 1 inch of ice.  
December 10, 2008 4:23 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

f00dl3,

I agree with your sentiment. However, the reason i sensored my own typing of the word ice, is because we have had issues on this blog with that word in the very recent past.

Given the events of the ice storm of 2002, many people in the local area think worst case scenario at even the slightest menton of the word. It can induce a different kind of panic than most any snowstorm we get around here.

Lets say we get a foot of snow in a 24 hour period. What is the percentage chance that a 12 inch snowstorm causes structural damage to your property versus that of 2 inches of ice??

I say less than 5 percent....

You will also notice, that the weather team has not commented at all on any ice potential. That dont want to induce any panic, as there mere mention would send speculation rampid.

Many people's lives were changed during that storm of 2002. I just think it is wise not to be throwing around that word 5 days out without any remote certainty at all.

Add to that, ive seen on this board......things said like this...

Oh we are going to get ice?? YAY, an ICE STORM!! Maybe my power will go out??? SWEET!!

Or this,

I really hope we get a REALLY BAD ICE STORM!! I love seeing those huge tress fall, and maybe ill miss school for like a month..


Or this,

Snow doesnt do anything for me, I WANT ICE!!! It cause way more problems...


Get my point yet??

Im just doing my part, in trying to not let irresponsible people get the wrong idea.
December 10, 2008 4:26 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Adam I do see your point but Ice can be beautiful. though destructive. different people like different types of weather. I don't think anyone here wants destruction. correct me if I'm wrong and raise your hand if you want destruction. anywho. I do think Ice storms have beauty to them until they start doing damage. Besides the point. I don't think we should be banned or censor the word from a weather blog because Ice storms are part of weather. In fact there is an Ice storm warning for parts of the new york area right now. but I think I've stated my point. I mean no disrespect or anything. I just don't think it's at a disrespectful level about talking about the ice yet. if it does. then we'll bash those that do abuse the word ICE. I won't be doing the bashing though because I've reaked enough havoc on this blog myself lol.
December 10, 2008 4:33 PM
 

HummerSeeker said:

Yea, thanks Adam.  I for one am having a not so good fall.  Laid off in September, about to lose our house, our very precious dog died last week a bad death, and I saw something on TV about ice and that about did me in!  So I'm going to wait patiently for 41's forecast before I decide if I need to panic!  No more bad news until 2009 please!  
December 10, 2008 4:36 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Adam. You forgot one

An ice Storm hurray, I get to use my year old Generator...

I said those comments last year. Lol.

Thats why i used Astricks this year because Jeremy said that If those types of comments continued, I would be gone.
December 10, 2008 4:38 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

Here is something for another weather contest:

http://www.weatherconnection.com/product.asp?itmky=886393&model=WMR200+KIT&cat=2&subcat=456539&sortby=&filtermfg=&page=


How cool is that weather station for your backyard or deck? I would be playing with that thing all day!  The traffic here would really beef up if the weather team put that up on a few news casts and directed curious watchers to the blog for more info to win one.  Make the producers pay for it if need be.

With the team getting out in the public that is just even more awareness, and a great way to market the blog as well!

If you guys did a live weather cast from Wal Mart that would be REALLY cool.  What a crowd that would draw.  That is the best way to be number one in KC...getting out and being involved with the communities like you guys have been.  Well done.
December 10, 2008 4:44 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

Well if we are learn from out mistakes, then lesson learned, and this blog will become a better place.

My main point is, lets not drum up a major ice storm when its 5 days away alteast. If its in the 72 hour range and looking probable, ill talk about it all day long...lol.

It can just be soo much more destructive than just plain snow...

Sorry if i offended anyone. That was not my intention.
December 10, 2008 4:44 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

You're all good Adam. =) I'm just excited we have another storm system to track!
December 10, 2008 4:47 PM
 

Jayhawk said:

Hey Gary,

I sent you a Private Message on this question, but maybe you didn't get it.  Looking for a gift for my nephew.  He is really excited about the weather and we are looking for a good educational toy tool to help him learn about the subject.  We have seen a couple of kids toys that make the learning fun, but the online reviews of the toys have just been rotten.

He's a 7 year old boy and we would love to find something.  Any help you can provide would be much appreciated.  Also, if the bloggers have any ideas we would love to have your input.

Best regards,


Don Hassinger, Jr.    
------------------

Don,

I am not an expert in this area.  So, if any of the bloggers have an idea let us know.

Gary

December 10, 2008 4:47 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

that's a really cool weather station...I wish I had one of those...
December 10, 2008 4:50 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

It looks like we have TWO chances next week for some winter weather. One in the beginning of the week, and the other near the end of the week.  Cool!  Might have been just a mild snow yesterday, but this looks like a fun month and it isnt even the 21st yet.
December 10, 2008 4:53 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

I like what you just said KansasPatriot. that makes me EGGCITED
December 10, 2008 4:58 PM
 

twister11 said:

the only thing that comes to my mind is weather stations.. maybe he would like a weather calendar I see those every where. Maybe a NOAA weather radio? Tour of a weather station?
December 10, 2008 5:02 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

The LRC weather website should have the weather station contest to raise awareness of the blog!  $100 from each member of the weather team could put up a nice weather station for someone.  That could really draw a lot of new bloggers to that site, AND increase exposure for businesses to hire LRC weather services for 2009.
December 10, 2008 5:04 PM
 

radman22 said:

I see natural gas futures are going up as they expect a cold spell in the midwest.    This is where Gary and the LRC was ahead of the game as the models had a hard time with it.    
December 10, 2008 5:05 PM
 

bellgolfMU12 said:

jayhawk,
windandweather.com has alot of weather stations from beginner to professional. Also barnes and noble has a great selection of books on their website
hope this helps
December 10, 2008 5:20 PM
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