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"I lovin it!!"

any big storm yet? I think we will see our big 1-2' snowstorm soon! (i wish)

You said the I word.

I know it was definitly cold this morning here in Marceline....at 7:30 AM my truck read 9 degrees.

Looking foward to the front =]

Alex

How could you know how strong this cold air will be since the 00z NAM only goes out to 6am Sunday with the front still northwest of us at that time?  Given the lack of significant snow cover over western North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska there is a chance that this air will modify somewhat before it reaches us.

BTW, the NAM is usually an aggressive model when it comes to cold "arctic" air, GFS always underestimates it.    Granted it will be a change, hyping "the strongest front in 2-3 years" may be a bit of a stretch.

Strongest Arctic front in 2 or 3 years?  So that would be similar to the cold outbreak of January 2006 right?  Yea that was cold I remember that.  Even in my extreme weather gear it wasn't nice working outside.  One morning car broke down and I got to walk 2 miles home.  I believe it was around 10 below with heavy wind that morning.  So is this similar?

I have another idea!

How about a little weather news segment? like what NBC Weather Plus had. Maybe stories from the Weather News on your website?

Looking forward to the blog tommorow. So your thinking that this morning's cold will actually be considered warm come next week?

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Yes!

Gary

I love snow, but I'm definitely not looking forward to extreme cold. I leave home around 6:50, and my car takes forever to start heating up. Does anybody have any tricks for getting an old car to heat up faster, or am I just going to have to get used to driving all bundled up?

It just sounds very cold to me! Brrr!!

http://www.click2houston.com/index.html
this is a link to Houston nbc affiliate  some pics are on there of the snow.

Gary, you should have the call letters be KLRC for the new weather channel. That would be very cool.

KansasPatriot said:
Does anyone know how I can link up with some storm chasers to go out on a run with them next spring to find some Kansas tornadic activity?
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I was wondering the same thing, now that Sean is gone. Is there another person who is a cheap as Sean was?

where did sean go?

Well atleast for people such as myself heading to arrowhead on Sunday for the Chiefs/Chargers game, we wont freeze.

Looks like both the NAM and GFS want to slow the arrival of the front down a little.

:)

I know its early to ask about storm chasing Andrew, but wanted to throw it out there real quick for future reference.  


Thats another idea Gary, maybe on the blog, channel, somewhere there can be a link to a local Kansas City area storm chasing team.  I want to get in one of those caged up cars and go right into the gut of the mother storm.

Something to think about.


As for this coming week......bring it on!!!!! Maybe I can just unplug the freezer in my garage if it will be that cold.

haha Jack doesnt believe Gary's forecast

Sean Move to OK, more info on his site: blownawaytours.com

I like those temps for next week!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Come on Polar Bears!!

I want a snow day!! What do ya think Gary? Jeremy? I want to sip hot chocolate, christmas lights on, good book, heavy snow outside.  Is it possible?

Geez.. the last time it snowed in Houston was over 10 years ago.  That was just a dusting followed by an ice storm.  YUCK!

December 10th, KC.

Snow yesterday, snow in Houston, winter weather advisories in the GULF STATES, and a arctic blast that is a eye opener to say the least with three waves coming in back to back? Snow/wintry mix next week many days....


We haven't even hit the middle of December yet!

Micky, check your anti-freeze.  Either the level is low or the mixture isn't right.  It should be 50/50.

Ahhh, poor Houston having snow.  Its not really funny.  I was stationed in San Antonio in the 80's and we got 2 inches of snow.  It crippled the entire SAT area.  Nobody there has all season or snow tires.  They have very few snow plows and they buy very few winter type chemicals.  I would imagine it was nearly a catasrophic event for Houston.  Well, winter weather can happen in all CONUS states.

Gary I hope you guys are far off the mark for next weeks weather.  Beyond that, it doesn't matter what the calender shows.  When you have more than one snow event, ice and below avg. temps. its winter.  It may not be what some people here call winter, but it is winter.

Man I hope this forecast doesnt change one bit! I love everything about winter and like Gary said on another blog I could have snow everyday of the week for 3 months straight!

david,

It is Meteorological Winter!

And I hope a strong storm shows up, and we see 2-3' of SNOW!!

Wow, Yikes forget Polar Bears, the Russian Bear is coming, and NO I am not talking about a former Military rivalry, I am talking about a SIBERIAN HIGH, the true Russian Bear, why is it the "Russian Bear"? it comes from Siberia(cold central),2. it is heavy and large, 3. It is hard to stop( can even fight a southwest flow aloft somewhat) 4. Many people find Siberian Highs to be "unBEARable" 5. when they are here everybody's "rushin'" to get inside;) Just having some geographical fun tonight!! Maybe this one will be nice bear and give us some SNOW, SNOW, SNOW.
I do find it interesting that weather can come OVER the pole from the otherside of the world!  You have to admire the people who actually live in that part of the world, I mean I couldn't even Imagine what -64 would feel like. And yes wow! snow in Houston, I remember the questions of what that strong cut-off ULL would do later in the year when it returned after October... well here is your answer:)

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Nick,

I know you are sleeping, but thanks for adding your input this morning.  New data is coming out and I am starting a new blog soon.

Gary

I am lovin this 7 day forcast, and i would love 2-3' of snow. when are we going to get one of those lol

Gary, Great forecast. I like the numerous disturbances coming through with snow chances. Though it would be nice if one of those disturbances turned out to be a storm doncha think?? G'night bloggers, Gary.

It looks to me like another possible snow day on Monday for schools with a glazing of ice and 1"-2" of snow on top of that. It looks like the greater potential for more accumulation of ice/snow is south and east of KC. Hopefully that will change and we can get pounded with a snowstorm.

What's this biggest difference between a "disturbance" and a "low"? Gary mentioned a series of disturbances for next week. If I understand it correctly, both give necessary lift but is a disturbance just a low that is unorganized and strected out? Also, can a disturbance be postively or negatively tilted like low pressure areas? And is it at the surface or elevated like a ULL? Finally, are we going to make a run at any record low temperatures next week?

Gary:

Good chilly morning to you sir-currently sitting at 17 degrees under clear skies-just awesome out this morning!! We have ice on all the ponds around here!!!

Ok, I am trying to get a better grip on the LRC and this year's pattern and trying to cure myself of what Scott very aptly termed Cycleitis (que your old music of New Data with Cycelitis!!)-something I have a huge case of!!! With that in mind, a few observations that I hope are on the right track. I am kind of thinking out loud here so i hope that is ok!!

1. I think we are about to go into the phase (or regime stealing from Scott's blog here) where we really see that long term ridge in Western Canada flex its muscles which in turn helps carve out the sub pattern (again, stealing from Scott) of the central trough. I think we really saw this before from about October 21st through early November. Since nothing is ever an exact replica each time through this time I think we are seeing the surface features eveolve much quicker than we did earlier. The western ridge began to flex around October 27th but we were still in October so the results at the surface didn't really hit untill after Halloween. This time though, the ridge as it flexes is ushering down a massive core of cold air-something that was not present in late October. Thus, you have a much quicker result at the surface than we did in late October. You have 2 days of warmth (Saturday and Sunday this time) instead of 4-6 i.e. the warm halloween day and weekend. Does that make any sense-I aam kind of thinking out loud here. Looking at the model outputs I think I am seeing the same regime and sub pattern we saw in late October into early November. Obviously, with it being later in the year and an unusually cold core of air, the results at the surface will be diffferent. i also think that with colder air to work this, this part may stick longer than it did in late October/early November However, the LRC shows the way and one can have an idea of what to expect. I would think that some time in the next 4-6 days we would have a decent surface storm form as we did around Novermber 6th or so-just with much more cold air to work with but where it tracks is still up in the air. Again, I hope this makes sense!!!

2. Regarding next week: I think the GFS is a bit off with the movement of the cold air-I think it is trying to push it too far to the east thus leaving trying to leave us with a shallower air mass. The 0z Euro brings this more in a North/South trajectory and takes the front further south. My main reason for thinking this is that noi matter which part of the pattern we have been in this year, when the cold air has come, it has come!!! The other factor is climototlogy-when we get a cold air mass as cold as this, it comes all the way through and barrels down hard-there is nothing wimpy about this cold front Sunday night. I think we will have a full fledged arctic cold snap and the problem I am throwing around in my mind is that it will suppress everything. Last time through things tracked right aalong us-this time with such a cold air mass if we things don't wind up much further south precip. wise. Does this make sense???

Whatever the case, I always talk about how I like to follow fronts-well Sunday there is going to be a doozy to follow!!!! LOL-Man that will be fun-and when come through, you will know it!!! Fun times ahead!!!!

Sorry to kind of think out loud this morning-i am just trying to get a better handle on things-to be honest I really don't think I have the knowledge to really get avery good handle but it is sure fun to try!!! As always, thanks for reading and have a great day!!!! Looks like another little shot of cool air tomorrow..

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill,

Good observations.  I think the cycle is around 48 to 55 days in length.  The jet stream strength is now  much stronger than it was in October which will make it hard to compare October to December when it comes down to specifics.  At the same time, as on the LRCWeather blog yesterday, there are so many comparisons to show how this pattern is cycling, and repeating, and that long term longwaves are unique to this year and repeating at regular times. We can call each sequence a subpattern if you want to like Scott has, but let's work on that one later.  In January and February it will be much easier to see the cycle length and cyclitis should get remedied. We usually don't get the cycle length down until mid to late December.  This year we have tried very hard to get it early, but the jet stream strength makes it difficult to see, as obvious as it is to me that there is a consistent cycle repeating right now.

I am going to blog about the Arctic air mass very soon.  Will we have a storm with the cold air?  I hope so.

Gary

Oh man-that blog is a mess!! There are more typos and mis spellings-my 5 year old could do a better job than that!! I am so sorry. I get way too excited. If it is impossible to follow, please delete it. Thsi is what happens when you get someone with ADD trying to think out loud on an internet Blog LOL

Thanks so much for reading and again, if you deem the above Blog too much of a mish mash, please delete it!!!

Bill in Lawerence