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Weekend changes....December 12, 2008

Meet the NBC Action News personalities including Stormy the Weather Dog Saturday and help a great cause. Stormy and I will be at the Wal-Mart at 133rd and State Line from 2 until 5:30 PM Saturday. Click on the link below for where we will be:

http://www.nbcactionnews.com/content/weathernews/story/The-Santa-Cause-Meet-Stormy-the-Weather-Dog/IuV9MFyDh0ujgr4yynz5Sw.cspx

Good morning bloggers, It's FRIDAY! 

An Arctic front will be moving through Sunday afternoon.  Temperatures will be warming up ahead of this front over the weekend with possibly a few rain showers.  We will time out the cold front on our weathercasts today and tonight.  At this time I still don't see any organized storm showing up for the few days following the Arctic front. 

Here is a comment from Bill in Lawrence this morning:

Boy-next week is going to be one interesting week to follow!! I am really getting into this as I really think next week is going to throw some curve balls vs. what the models are currently showing. I really do think the models are having some trouble trying to figure out the trajectory of the cold air and how much staying it power it really has. Regarding precipitation, the 0z shows several small vorts. Coming up the front on the 0Z run-how these actually play out I think is almost impossible to tell at this time. I also wonder if the models are not scouring out the cold air much too quickly by Wednesday. I think in the end, the important thing is to see Sunday just how far the front goes as this position will be the major player next week. Where will the battle ground set up next week-will it be in Oklahoma or will it be here? The models I think are going to have varying solutions over the next few days and it may not be until the front is in Montana and we get some good sounding data before they really get a handle on the specifics.

I am really trying to use the LRC to get a better grip on next week, but this is really an exercise in futility on my part as to be honest I do not have the knowledge to really do this-but, that has never stopped me before nor will it now-I'll keep plugging away and mostly making a fool out of myself!!  I think that based on the LRC the models have this cold air spreading out too far East and that we will feel more of the brunt of it than is currently being shown. I think (big optimum word there-think) we are in the period from October 20th-November 13th or so. Thus, the SE ridge the GFS has popped up on the 0Z run, which I think is affecting the path of the cold air on that run, is a bit off. One interesting thing though is that the 0z and 6z GFS and the 0Z Euro do now show a storm of some sort later next week. The GFS has it bringing down another arctic type front after the cold air has been scoured out but I really do wonder if the cold air will not still be in place. In the end though at least some type of system is showing up for later next week and I think it is right on schedule!! On other point regarding this year’s pattern: the cold air has never hung up here in this part of the cycle-it has blow through and really has most of the Fall.

I am excited to follow this and see just where the front “stalls” out and then see how much energy we can kind of harness from these little vorts riding the front. We should be able to start seeing the front on the surface charts by tomorrow morning as it heads into Montana-fun times!!! No matter how it plays out, this is going to be fun to track and to see what happens!!

Have a great day and as always thanks for reading!!

Bill in Lawrence

Thank you Bill!  I agree with just about everything you are talking about.  We will discuss this today and I will update the blog later on this afternoon. 

Come by and say hello on Saturday!

Gary

Published Friday, December 12, 2008 6:08 AM by glezak

Comments

 

billinlawrence said:

Gary:

Good much warmer morning to you sir!! Currently sitting at 30 degrees this morning under a beautiful moon lit sky-it is very nice out this morning!! We had something fall last night but I was asleep by 9:00 and not sure what it was!!

Boy-next week is going to be one interesting week to follow!! I am really getting into this as I really think next week is going to throw some curve balls vs. what the models are currently showing. I really do think the models are having some trouble trying to figure out the trajectory of the cold air and how much staying it power it really has. Regarding precipitation, the 0z shows several small vorts. Coming up the front on the 0Z run-how these actually play out I think is almost impossible to tell at this time. I also wonder if the models are not scouring out the cold air much too quickly by Wednesday. I think in the end, the important thing is to see Sunday just how far the front goes as this position will be the major player next week. Where will the battle ground set up next week-will it be in Oklahoma or will it be here? The models I think are going to have varying solutions over the next few days and it may not be until the front is in Montana and we get some good sounding data before they really get a handle on the specifics.

I am really trying to use the LRC to get a better grip on next week, but this is really an exercise in futility on my part as to be honest I do not have the knowledge to really do this-but, that has never stopped me before nor will it now-I'll keep plugging away and mostly making a fool out of myself!!  I think that based on the LRC the models have this cold air spreading out too far East and that we will feel more of the brunt of it than is currently being shown. I think (big optimum word there-think) we are in the period from October 20th-November 13th or so. Thus, the SE ridge the GFS has popped up on the 0Z run, which I think is affecting the path of the cold air on that run, is a bit off. One interesting thing though is that the 0z and 6z GFS and the 0Z Euro do now show a storm of some sort later next week. The GFS has it bringing down another arctic type front after the cold air has been scoured out but I really do wonder if the cold air will not still be in place. In the end though at least some type of system is showing up for later next week and I think it is right on schedule!! On other point regarding this year’s pattern: the cold air has never hung up here in this part of the cycle-it has blow through and really has most of the Fall.

I am excited to follow this and see just where the front “stalls” out and then see how much energy we can kind of harness from these little vorts riding the front. We should be able to start seeing the front on the surface charts by tomorrow morning as it heads into Montana-fun times!!! No matter how it plays out, this is going to be fun to track and to see what happens!!

Have a great day and as always thanks for reading!!

Bill in Lawrence
-----------------------

Bill,

I just posted your comment to the main blog entry.  I just thought it really explains the situation well today.  Thank you so much.

Gary

December 12, 2008 6:27 AM
 

W0XDL said:

It is very interesting to see what the "other stations" are saying will happen next week in terms of precipitation.  I even saw some snow totals being predicted.  (I wasn't watching on purpose...just surfing at commercials!)  

DL

--------------

DL,

There are always big differences every week. But, when the weather becomes more impacting viewers begin to notice.  My own boss noticed it yesterday, the differences, and I tried to explain these differences always exist.  Anyway, if we see anything showing up of any significance, then you know we will be all over it!

Gary

December 12, 2008 6:47 AM
 

NicoleWasHere said:

Sunday, starting in the 60s, ending in the 20s... Monday, 16... Sheesh.

Brb, hauling Mother Nature off to rehab.  She needs it.


-Nicole
December 12, 2008 6:52 AM
 

JPnKC said:

Gary- with an Artic outbreak pretty early( IMO it is early) than we are used to- have you discussed one of the possibilities  you mentioned on your winter forecast that we could have just a brutally cold winter and lighter precip- or is it to early for your light bulb moment, as you called it..

*****Bloggers- get out to Wal Mart Saturday and meet your favorite personality and bring a toy for the kids--THEY NEED OUR HELP especially this year*****Get in Jeremys live shot 8AM Saturday!!

Have a great day my friends

JP

--------------------

JP,

Excellent idea!

Gary

December 12, 2008 6:55 AM
 

davidmcg said:

Hey Bill you should have had a mix of precip.  I was still up during that precip pass through and radar was showing a mix in your part of Lawrence.  It was a strange quick pass, you had a mix and up here in McLouth/Oskaloosa we had all rain.  It measured just a trace here.  By the time it got passed K-7 and south of the Kansas Tiver it was mostly snow/mix.

Gary, you know what they say, "when the weather man says snow you get a dusting, when the weather man says a dusting you get dumped on"?  Is that what we are hearing this morning for next week?

The cold has finally taking its toll on pastures out here.  Most everybody has gone into their winter hay feeding and feed supplement ops now.  A little later than average.

I don't like the cold but I have no real regrets.  This fall hasn't seemed as wet or cold as we usually have.
December 12, 2008 7:00 AM
 

Brent said:

theres a layer of Ice on my deck....
December 12, 2008 7:04 AM
 

billinlawrence said:

Davidmcg:

Thanks for the report!! I usually am a night owl but I have the flu virus running through the boys right now and I am trying to keep myself from getting it-I don't think it is going to work LOL!!

On a different note: parts of southern New Hampshire got hit really hard with an ice storm last night-state of emergency has already been declared for some counties. Horrible event up that way!! There have been reports of upwards to two inches of ice and then 10 miles south of the ice it is a flooding rain. Terrible storm for many back east.

Have a good day

Bill in Lawrence
December 12, 2008 7:08 AM
 

Bob in OP said:

Arctic air - Booo!

I enjoy a good snowstorm [rate here] but not arctic invasions. Bill, great post!

It will be interested to see how shallow the arctic air will be with this event.

Bob
December 12, 2008 8:16 AM
 

davidmcg said:

I also remember when you said one possible outlook would be a large high pressure ridge would form bringing us arctic air that would block precipitation.  If that happens it wouldn't be a first for this area.
December 12, 2008 8:35 AM
 

mamaof3girls said:

Great entry Bill!! I always enjoy reading your entries!! I feel sorry for those people out east affected by all the weather. I am hoping we can escape one of those this winter. Hope the meet and greet goes well this weekend. Have a great weekend everyone.
Monica
Pleasanton
December 12, 2008 8:42 AM
 

bewild79 said:

I have a question..does anyone know how the weekend after Christmas looks?  My hubby is wanting to make a quick trip down to Louisiana over that weekend and I don't think it would be a good idea if the weather is not going to cooperate.
Thanks
Becky
Parkville
December 12, 2008 8:43 AM
 

kcangler84 said:

I know the acorn discussion happened a little while ago but it seems to be affecting more than just the midwest.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/science/12/12/acorn.shortage/index.html
December 12, 2008 8:48 AM
 

Brocksmama said:

Bill, great blog this morning!  I think you know more than you give yourself credit for!  I am praying that this upcoming weather "event" will just be more cold than precipitation! I am feeling for the folks back East- being without power is no fun. I am looking forward to the nice temps on Sunday morning!  Have a great day!  Dea  P.S. Bill I hope you escape the flu- wash your hands, wash your hands, wash your hands!!!  ( I was a preschool teacher for many years and many times somehow managed to escape catching what was going around and had raw hands to prove it!! )
December 12, 2008 9:21 AM
 

4caster said:

This was my morning commentary to my local group of meteorologists:

Hello and good morning, weather fanatics!
Well, as we focus our attention to next week, several things come to mind.  
1) There is arctic air, and it is potent.  Whether or not it will make it down here is not the question.  It is when it will make it and how long it will last.  Right now, model output suggests classic setup:  shallow, dense cold air making a post-frontal appearance, bringing with it a bout of freezing rain.  As of now, I cannot disagree with this.  However, I want to know where that low is going to make a bulls-eye prognosis.  Considering we should see temps around 60 for Saturday, makes me think the low is not going to dip down too low.  Otherwise, we would get NE winds, which would keep us around 45-50.
Best tool for this weekend:  BUFKIT.

2) The first thought in seeing an arctic air mass make its move is to think that it will stick around for a few days.  I cannot really believe that this time around.  The UA pattern is really active, and in my mind, make an abrupt bend around Tuesday and rear back to the north, thereby warming us right back to the 40’s.  For reference, look back 48 days ago.  This is the tentative pattern timing for this year.  So far, it is working nicely, and is picking up these features.  So, with that said, I would expect next weekend to be a nice, mild period before we get a good sized storm for, you guessed it, Christmas Eve and Day.  Let’s get through this first storm first before making predictions on two weeks out.
Use it, but don’t be fooled by it:  GFS.

Any thoughts, comments, warrants to the insane asylum?  
I’ll be here all week; be sure to try the buffet.

BAClair
December 12, 2008 9:38 AM
 

EdRoberts said:

Keep in mind that as you look at the operational models that they ALWAYS have a difficult time handling cold, dense air masses. We notice this quite often in the early spring. They want to mix them out much too quickly. This is why the threat for freezing rain events is higher with arctic air over your typical garden-variety continental polar airmass. The dense air is not as easily mixed out and it can maintain it's properties much longer despite being rather shallow.
... btw... I talked a bit about this over at http://LRCWeather.com today *grin*
December 12, 2008 9:56 AM
 

marlina10 said:

The forecast graphic makes it look like next week could be an active week!

******************

The 12Z GFS was very active...to say the least. 

Jeremy

December 12, 2008 9:58 AM
 

lezakEF5 said:

Hey Gary,

It snowed a bit more last night, and I awoke this morning to a nice dusting on the grass, cars, and roads. My truck also had a decent layer of ice across the whole windshield, so I got to school a bit later than what I was expecting.

Alex from Marceline, MO
December 12, 2008 10:03 AM
 

mattmaisch said:

Hi Guys,

12Z GFS certainly starting to look a bit more interesting in regard to precipitation for next week.  Will be fun to watch over the wknd.  Have a good one.

Matt
December 12, 2008 10:14 AM
 

morrell said:

I hope it's OK to put this link on here from CNN.  If not please delete.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/science/12/12/acorn.shortage/index.html

It talks about the shortage of Acorns in other areas of the country.  I thought it was an interesting follow up to some of the discussions on here the last few weeks.  I personally would like to see a decline in squirrell populations for gardening purposes.  I hope this not to far off topic.

December 12, 2008 10:29 AM
 

pvt_murphy said:

its too early to make an official forecast, however i dont see indications of a freezing precip event anytime soon.  if anything, next weekend looks like a better setup for ice with the flow coming from the gulf, and not the pacific....however, i sincerely doubt the 12z's run for next weekend is accurate.  the point is that i dont see icing occurring within the next few days with the exception of the transition to snow from rain on sunday night.  but, it looks like a quick transition anyhow.  i wouldnt expect any problems.  as gary/jeremy said, this looks to be a predominately snowy setup for us this time around.  i do like the way the gfs is trending for snowfall though.  sunday night/monday morning and tuesday are both looking pretty good for some snow.  nothing huge, but more than what we have gotten so far!

******************

Good take.  The 12Z GFS looks stormy...but a lot may depend on how the Sunday night storm plays out across the Midwest.  Will the northern vort max dominate or will the southern vort have a little more energy.  The NAM really wants the northern vort to dominate.

Outside of a quick transition to snow, the early part of this week doesn't really look very favorable for freezing rain/ice. Still way to early to discuss ice possibilities more than 5 days out.  Snow lovers have some hope from Sunday Night - Tuesday.

Jeremy 

December 12, 2008 10:45 AM
 

nastyweather said:

Is the 12z GFS in line with the LRC or reality for that matter, because next week looks like a real mess?
December 12, 2008 11:12 AM
 

f00dl3 said:

I trust the 12z GFS about as much as I trust a politician... seriously though, it looks cool - but we ALL know what happens when the GFS bulls-eyes us.

I think at most we will see 1" of snow this upcoming week - all the storms (with exception of 12z GFS) look rather weak.
December 12, 2008 11:17 AM
 

kane1970 said:

I think 1"-3" is possible by Wed. As long as it is snow. Depends on when the cold, i mean freakin cold air gets here.

Once again.... NOW SNOW ON CHRISTMAS!!!!
December 12, 2008 12:42 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

Well, maybe if the models are showing small snow totals it will then be the opposite when the time comes.  If the models show large amounts it seems to just end up with minimal. Maybe the opposite will occur.
December 12, 2008 12:50 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

Well, maybe if the models are showing small snow totals it will then be the opposite when the time comes.  If the models show large amounts it seems to just end up with minimal. Maybe the opposite will occur.
December 12, 2008 12:50 PM
 

kane1970 said:

When  is the weather team going to have their snowfall forecast. Tonight, Saturday or Sunday. Just curious. Thanks  
December 12, 2008 12:53 PM
 

RickMckc said:

4caster ... I'm curious from your post: are you forecasting locally? do you work for the NWS or some other meterological entity?
December 12, 2008 12:55 PM
 

4caster said:

RickMckc,
It's a good point to bring up.  I am from the Western part of Illinois, so the synoptic part of my forecasts might be off slightly, but the overall scope is usually general.  I am a private forecaster for my business and Emergency Management for my county.  I also collaborate with several good friends from the television station I worked at briefly.  I feel that exercising my skills learned in school keep me sharp and make me work harder to understand the challenges of weather.
Thanks for asking
BAClair
December 12, 2008 1:31 PM
 

ATL 2 KCMO said:

I just do not get what all you pepole are so obsessed with cold for??? I mean i love snow and all but I only need a few storms a year and im ready for warmth what is wrong with temputures in the 50s 60s or 70s why are all you guys agenst that you all keep saying this artic air is what winter is all about NOO ITS NOT!!!! this is not Minnesota are avrage highs this time of year are in the mid 40s and the lowest the avrage high gets to here in 40 or 39 depending if its downtown or kci are avrage high in July is 90 and the avrage low is 70 This is not minnesota lets quit living in your cold little fanacy world

Thanks

LOVE NBC WEATHER YOU GUYS ARE ALWAYS RIGHT ON THE MONY WHEN IT COMES TO WEATHER EVEN THOUGH YOU TEND TO BE COLD WEATHER LOVERS.

I ALSO JUST MOVED BACK HERE FROM ATLANTA ITS GOOD TO SEE GARY LOOKEN MORE HEALTHY THEN EVER CONGRATS ON BEATING CANCER GARY!!! My grandpa recently died from cancer and its such a good thing to be able to see pepole overcoming and beating this terble illness and offten pepole exspecilly now forget about it with all the economic issues and everything elce going on in todays world but we need to continue to fight and find a cure for this illness and thank god gary was strong enough to overcome and beat it.
December 12, 2008 1:37 PM
 

morrell said:

I agree ATL 2 KCMO!  I don't get it either.
December 12, 2008 2:05 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

It doesn't hurt wanting the fantasy of alot of snow though :-) I've even put a picture of snow capped mountains on my cell phone to try to encourage it to snow :D
December 12, 2008 2:56 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

18Z NAM now trending towards the GFS concerning precipitation amounts on Sunday night/early Monday...
December 12, 2008 3:16 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

Snow Dance! Big storm Dance!!
December 12, 2008 3:36 PM
 

Holmes524 said:

Adam can you please tell me what the NAM is showing?  Thanks  
As far as the artic air what I say is IF its going to be cold I want snow otherwise let it be warm.
December 12, 2008 3:53 PM
 

Holmes524 said:

Adam can you please tell me what the NAM is showing?  Thanks  
As far as the artic air what I say is IF its going to be cold I want snow otherwise let it be warm.
December 12, 2008 3:53 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

Looks like this is the last and best weekend to get anything done outside if you have that option.  It all goes downhill Sunday evening, Tiiimmmmmbeeeerrrrrrrrr!!!! to temperatures!
December 12, 2008 3:57 PM
 

shoedog said:

Does somebody have a link t the NAM maps.  I had last winter but somehow lost.

Thanks
December 12, 2008 4:01 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

Right now, NAM and GFS both agree we could see some minor snow accumulation Sunday into Monday. I wouldn't count on more than an inch for most of Kansas City, though.
December 12, 2008 4:05 PM
 

MikeL said:

Here is a link to the NAM and GFS...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
December 12, 2008 4:10 PM
 

Kcchamps said:

Check this out guys!!!
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX

this would mean 6-8" of snow,  this will likley change hough
December 12, 2008 4:13 PM
 

FlakeFan said:

Wind Advisory:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
305 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2008

...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ011-012-020-021-028>030-037-038-043>045-
053-054-130515-
/O.NEW.KEAX.WI.Y.0015.081213T1400Z-081214T0300Z/
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-HOLT-ANDREW-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-JACKSON-
LAFAYETTE-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-BATES-HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATCHISON...PAOLA...MOUND CITY...TROY...
LEAVENWORTH...KANSAS CITY KS...OVERLAND PARK...OLATHE...OREGON...
SAVANNAH...ST. JOSEPH...PLATTSBURG...PARKVILLE...PLATTE CITY...
WESTON...LIBERTY...EXCELSIOR SPRINGS...RICHMOND...KANSAS CITY...
INDEPENDENCE...LEXINGTON...CONCORDIA...RAYMORE...HARRISONVILLE...
PLEASANT HILL...WARRENSBURG...SEDALIA...BUTLER...RICH HILL...
CLINTON
305 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM CST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM CST SATURDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY
AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 4O TO 45 MPH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
GUSTS TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY
FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

BOOKBINDER
December 12, 2008 4:23 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

KCchamps,
Don't forget that that graphic is off by one bar. So it would not be 6-8" but less. It is all hopes, dream, nightmares, etc until it happens. Things change so much this time of year.
December 12, 2008 4:31 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Weatherfreak. I though it wasnt. Because if it was just gray like it was last week for parts of Viewing area. It showed less than inch to inch. The Pink is one inch.
December 12, 2008 4:58 PM
 

bellgolfMU12 said:

kcchamps how do you navigate to page from earl barkers home page
December 12, 2008 4:59 PM
 

Kcchamps said:

December 12, 2008 5:06 PM
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