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Good afternoon to The Weather Team!!!

Sure has been a nice today for sure-we have some high clouds moving in at the moment but today is kind of the “calm” before the craziness begins-with the strong south winds tomorrow!!

I just got to check back into the blog not too long ago-Whoa-I guess this for sure proves the maxim:  Even a broken can get lucky twice a day LOL!!! I appreciate beyond words the support and compliments Gary and to everyone else-I must have had a ghost writer in my head this morning!!

One more random thought: The 0z and 12Z Euro really tries to erode the cold air out of here very quickly next week-at least at the 850 level (I can’t get surface temp. projections on the Euro) and the GFS had a similar solution until 12Z today. There is no doubt that in our location warm air can erode cold air quickly even at the surface. However, Ed provided excellent insight today in this blog and on the LRC Blog in that the models have a terrible time handling the erosion of a true arctic air mass. (Actually, his should have been posted!!) Furthermore, this is not your run of the mill arctic air intrusion-this is a very cold air mass that is coming into the lower 48-it actually reminds me of the first arctic front in early December of 1989 and the models-even the Euro-never takes the arctic air out of the lower 48. I mean, even the Euro does not  have this cold air retreating back to Yellowknife in the North West Territories-it stays in the lower 48. Finally, if I am seeing the LRC correctly (again this is the biggest if of all) we are in the part of the pattern that can hold colder air in place a bit longer especially cold air like this. If we do indeed have a deepening storm over the SW mid week, warm air will come over the top of us-but that cold air is so close that I really wonder if we will loose it at the surface. Whatever the case this is going to be one crazy week to follow weather wise and really it begins tomorrow with the very strong south winds!!!

To answer the question why I love brutally cold and snow: I love to be out in it-I would rather run when it is 10 below than 95 any day of the week. The air is so clean and crisp-the snow crunching under your shoes..I just like it. I am weird and I know it-my friends think I am nuts and I probably am!! Also, so much has to happen to get a big snow or any snow and even to get a strong arctic front here-imho it is much harder to get those here than warm and sunny so to me it is a rare event that is fun to experience. I mean we have 9 months out of the year where our temperature is 50 and above and I enjoy every minute of that as well but when we get to December and January-unleash the hounds!!!

Have a great evening everybody and again-thanks so much for the kind words today and thanks Gary and the Weather Team for the support and encouragement to keep plugging along at this even if I do wind up with egg on my face most times!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

Great job again!  We appreciate your input so much.  And, I think you are with me at wishing winter would last 9 months and not 3.  I wouldn't love snow every day of those 90 days. 

Have a great weekend.  The GFS is now on a two model run trend of having three snows here.  But, I am not excited yet.

Gary

Bill, looks like the 18Z GFS agrees with you. The cold on that model finally looks like it is planning to stay awhile.

SNOW confidence may be low but I bet flakes will be flying almost everday, probably nothing significant, or we may get lucky.  You know whenever it gets that cold it flurries alot!
Atleast winter will be showing it's face in a big way coming soon!  
Arctic air watch anyone?  I bet we are about to go into are stormy pattern soon.  
We have been in the dry part of the LRC for sometime now, I believe things are about to turn.   There have been some weird storms, hopefully we can get one that forms to our West and and not have to worry about it forming right on top of us...... those are just to iffy and nerve racking!  
 Have a great night team NBC!!!  Getting ready for your forecast now!  

I should have added (along w/Bill) that the reason I love cold and snow (in response to ATL 2 KCMO's friendly question) is that it's exciting to me to experience the wide variety of weather here in the Central Plains. I wouldn't want it to be like this year round, but for a couple months it's fascinating to see what the atmosphere can do in this regard. There's almost something spiritual about it, IMHO. <ducks and runs>

WOW, just saw your forecast Gary.  COOOOOLD.  I like the thought of some snow Sunday evening.  Hopefully it matures over the Leavenworth/Atchison area and not to the east, these sort of trends have me concerned.  
There will be flakes though, I put the chance at 100% for flurries for each day we have clouds in place.  Like you said , hopefully something bigger will show up soon.  
Great cast Gary, have a good night!   Lots of work it looks like!  Keep up your "State Of The Art LRC forecasts, we definately enjoy them!  

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Thanks for the kind words.  Once it gets below 20 degrees it doesn't take much to get at least some snowflakes to come down. 

Gary

Gary,

Are you going out to arrowhead to the Chiefs/Chargers game on Sunday??

I am.

This front is so powerful, it is difficult for me to discern actual surface temps in the second half.

I know it should be pretty decent for tailgating in the morning, just wondering your opinion on what to expect throughout the course of the game?

Going to need all ranges of clothes for this one....lol

Thanks...

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I am not going this week.  Do you need your winter coat or not?  We will time it out over the weekend.

Gary

WOW!!! The blog is too quiet for the changes we have comming.

blog is quiet=calm before the storm(s). I am leaning in the direction of a model change to bring us a storm late in the week.

I would like to see 2 or more inches out each storm. I am really looking foward to  getting the plowing started this season.

Okay, I did the "deed" and turned my channels off of yours to watch the comparison in the forcasts.  Quite different...don't know if it's that all of you are trying to be hush hush and not get all into a panic or, your forcasts vary that much!  I will still go with this one over the competition anyday!  
Anyways, can somebody please tell me where the GFS is and what exactly does this stand for?  Where do I find it.  I have been studying the maps that Gary and Jeremy have been posting and trying to teach myself what it all means but, if anyone can point me into the right direction to a site or map where I can learn a bit better, it would be greatly appreciated!!

 Hello Gary: I was just looking at the seven-day forecast and freaked out, will these be all accumulating snow, oh my!!!

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Monday looks dry, but Sunday night and Tuesday have snow potential.  I am getting ready for the newscast right now.

Gary

 

lol It's like Where's Waldo with Stormy.

Keeping my fingers crossed for some good snow in the coming week!

 Man, Snow from Sunday night to Tuesday night and Thurs, oh man

Gary------ Thank You , I will be watching at 10:18!!!!!!

I may have to give up and buy a snow shovel finally.  My dog will love it though. It'll be nearly impossible to get him to come inside next week.

\_O__/

Snow next week. Yes. Hurray it isnt the 3 letter word

here you go camatz6



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

I don't understand why everyone buys a new snow shovel every year.
For some , they don't like snow so they will buy a cheep one,then lose or break it.
For most of us,we love the snow so much we have to have the newest and best.
For me I found a really good one two years ago, I like it so much I went back and bought another the day after I used it for the first time.:)
I like every thing about snow :D

I am certainly hoping for some snow out of this coming week. We need to get out and enjoy the white stuff on our sleds. I say if it's going to be cold, bring on some snow with it. Here's to a fantastic winter week, to all the winter lovers. Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow......

I was hoping to hear about big snow.  My mom called this morning and asked me if I heard anything about 8 inches of snow.  Where did she get that figure?  An inch of less blowing around is rather disappointing.

LOL, LOL  @ Ipushsnow!!!!!! I agree

Everyone must have vary important things to do tonite.
Not much going on here.
Strong cold front,chance of snow every couple days,how exciting!!!!
Gary was that a new snow vest tonight?

This is the 12z GFS, I don't know why it isn't updating to the 00z GFS:
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX

Thank you JHAWK 23....have been looking at this but, I need a guide for "dummies".  I guess practice makes perfect.  Didn't really hear anything to exciting on the forecast tonite.  Gary does not seem excited either.  They took the snow chances out for Monday and that is about all I got out of it.  I don't get too excited about cold...I stay inside all day and night.  If I can hear or see the weather then that is exciting.  Cold or hot doesn't matter...I can't see or hear that.  Bring on the snow storms and bring on the thunder!!!!!

Gary,
Latest GFS has a nice amount of precip here on tuesday. Will it be all snow? If so it would instantly start accum... right? Since the high is 17. Also, since it is so cold what would the ration be? 15:1

Andrew, that link worked for me. 0Z GFS.

Then it just updated

I like the GFS tonight!! Hope it keeps up!!

Can you post the updated GFS map Andrew? Thanks

Husky,

JUst click on the link I posted above and it will be the updated one

ok thanks andrew and that does look good right now, hope it keeps trending that way

Now all it needs to do is just move a liiiiiiitle bit south to get that dark green and gray right on top of KC

Gary,
I'm so impressed by Stormy's good nature with all those boisturous children around, she's amazing!  Windy does pretty well with kids but would be overwhelmed by that many all at once.  Young children have a tendancy to stare at a dog's eyes and that is sometimes too threatening for Windy so I have to keep her close.
The wind has really picked up here this morning, blowing at 22mph.  We drove home from Johnson County Community College last night at 10:30 and no wind at all, nice drive home.  We went to see Ruben Studdard and Frenchie Davis in Ain't Misbehavin', it was a great show, definitely Broadway quality.
It's a "hold onto your hat kind of day",  I'm headed to Olathe to try to say hey to Jeremy and drop off a toy for the toy drive.  Have a great day everyone!
--deb in Paola

Good windy morning to The Weather Team!! I have the song by Kansas stuck in my head this morning: We're the people of the South Wind..the winds have are really howlling out there this morning!! Phase one of the change is now commencing-My hat is now in Nebraska!!!

Man on water vapor imagery this morning you can really pick out that cold air pushing down into the lower 48-pretty cool stuff. Also, I think on the surface charts this morning you can see the front in Northern North Dakota and Northern Montana-or at least the wind shift line. Also, you can see those two powerfull short waves moving across the Northern Plains (I think??) aweome stuff!!

This going to be an interesting week to follow-however it all plays out it is going to be a great time to learn and a great event to follow and discuss!!

Have a great day everybody!!

Bill in Lawrence

WINDY WINDY WINDY WINDY, SOUND LIKE THUNDER WINDY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


St. Louis is in a Winter Storm Watch

Wow, looks like STL might be the place to be next week if you like winter weather!

Good Windy Morning Jeremy and fellow weather bloggers!

Currently sitting at 48° here in Western WYCO. Looks like winds have been running around 12-16 MPH out of the SSE for the better part of the early morning hours, a sure sign of things to come today! Well looking at the models this morning it looks like this quick moving storm system Sunday and Sunday night will get its act together as it moves east of Kansas City again. This must be a big player in the LRC this year. But hopefully the pendulum will swing in the right direction soon and give Kansas City its much needed  or should I say wanted winter storm sometime this year. Either way I hope that we can add a few more inches this month, or else I think we may be headed down a disappointing road here in Kansas City in terms of snowfall. According to the 84 hour NAM we don’t get much in the way of snowfall, but the GFS seems up to its old tricks of placing KC in a significant band of snowfall. Well at least I would think 4 inches would be significant for KC so far this winter! Well have a great weekend everyone, if you haven’t gotten your outside Christmas lights up, looks like this may be the weekend to get that task completed!

Bryan

As you all know I hate WIND! And Tomorrows North wind will even be worse!!

I have no neighbors of trees of any size and the wind just blasts my home. I hope the chimney flue stays up!!! Glad I didn't put out any christmas lawn decorations or lights on the house this year otherwise Santa and his deer would definately be flying through the air today.

Can the weather team answer a wind question for tomorrow - Once the North wind pushes through will it stay strong and gusty 25-35 MPH throughout the evening into Monday?

The way the wind is howling this morning, you would think it would be frigit outside. But nope, it's a balmy 50 degrees out. You can tell changes are on the way.

If we don't get much snow out of this artic air mass with strong western pacific jet flow, I don't see us being able to get many other "unique" patterns this winter. As with the LRC, this is our cycle. If what I've seen of our cycle is the just of it - how are we going to get any more than 5.5" this whole winter (none the less 20-25")?