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Windy windy windy!

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kmci.txt

NAM Model Run: 12Z DEC 13, 2008                                                                                            
                                                                                                                           
Forecast Hours:    0hr    6hr   12hr   18hr   24hr   30hr   36hr   42hr   48hr   54hr   60hr   66hr   72hr   78hr   84hr  
Sfc Prs(mb):     968.4  965.0  962.8  961.6  959.5  960.7  969.1  980.4  987.5  992.1  993.4  994.0  990.9  986.5  983.3  
Mean SLP (mb):  1006.0 1002.1  999.7  998.6  996.4  997.7 1007.9 1020.6 1028.7 1033.5 1034.6 1035.4 1032.3 1027.3 1023.6  
2m agl Tmp (F):   39.8   51.7   50.4   49.5   52.7   59.4   26.3   11.5    6.5   11.5   11.0    8.1   10.7   16.6   17.1  
2m agl Dewpt(F):  32.2   35.3   42.3   45.9   51.6   51.7   14.2    4.8   -0.7    2.6    5.3    4.7    6.5   12.2   15.5  

Jeremy,

Interestingly, The Weather Channel [usually panned here] has backed off a bit on the cold temperatures from their earlier forecasts for this arctic blast. They are forecasting that the coldest core of this arctic invasion will stay further north. With no snow on the ground and the ground not yet frozen, I have to believe that single digits on Monday morning are a stretch here. Teens seem more likely.

What's are your latest feelings regarding a potential snow event for Tuesday?

Bob

Here's a question. What is the widest hi-low span. Or maybe twenty four hour change in temps. Is 61 to 6 even close.

f00dl3- forgive my ignorance but I have no idea what that means!  Can you explain all that for us who are clueless?  Thanks!

The main things to pay attention to are lines 1 & 4 - line 1 is how many hours out the forecast is for, and line 4 is the temperature at that time. (Notice how at 30 hours from now it is forecasting it to be 59.2 F, and then 6 hours later 26.3 F)

I just met Jeremy!!

Wow its windy!!! Its as strong as in some severe storms in the summer! As far as the upcoming winter weather is concerned, even though that as of now there doesn't look to be a big snow in the near future, what ever falls will stay on the ground for a while. So two inches Sunday night, 2 inches Tuesday, and 2 inches thursday, your looking at 6 inches on the ground!  BTW- the amounts of snow are just examples.

 Hello Jeff/ Jeremy: I  was just wondering about Sunday night precip, Does it look like, for sure we will see precip? How many hour do you see us having? Thanks

Okay let me get this right.

We go from jeans and shirt tomorrow to long underwear and parka on Mon?

Sheesh

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Well, not really....you go from jeans and a shirt to long underwear and parka in 3 hours Sunday afternoon.

Gary

Andrew-
I got the chance to meet Jeremy once a year or so ago at a Royals game.  He seems like a pretty cool cat and had a great knowledge about the weather, which I would've expected... And the Twins. We can't all be perfect, LOL!

plume-
From KOMO news in Seattle, WA

SEATTLE - Montana is home to both the greatest increase and decrease in temperature in the United States' record books. On Dec. 14, 1924, the temperature at Fairfield, Montana dropped from 63 degrees at noon to -21 at midnight from a strong arctic front. That 84 degree spread stands as the record 12-hour temperature drop.

Not to be outdone, Browning, MT holds the record for 24-hour drop. On Jan. 23, 1916, it went from 44 to -56 within a day -- a 100 degree drop. Talk about scrambling to find the heavy coat!

For More Information:

www.wrh.noaa.gov



   

Once the North wind pushes through will it stay strong and gusty 25-35 MPH throughout the evening into Monday?


I'm fretting and pacing right now. The farm is taking a beating with these winds, not to mention the house. Ahhh!! I need to get an earth contact home.

Gary, the NWS Hazardous Outlook said 3-5 inches possible over northern missouri tuesday with that bad  three letter word on thursday that starts with "i" is that possible?

Maybe the weather team can explain why we have such strong winds that will occur over several days. It just confounds me that 30-40 MPH winds can occur for such a long duration! I wonder if this is what the Santa Anna winds are like in California?

Looks like maybe a nice storm on Tuesday per the GFS. Nothing per the NAM.

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX

What do you think, Gary/Jeremy?

Gary-- Sunday night does it look like a sure thing that here in downtown will see precip? how may hour do you expect it to last sunday night

f00dl3- Thank you very much for helping me learn!  What an amazing opportunity that we have here on theis blog.  Wonderful meteorologists to learn from and also the bloggers who are in the know helping out the ones who aren't!!!!!!!  Thanks again!  Also wanted to share something- we have a very heavy propane grill that has been moved from one side of the deck to the other by these lovely winds we are having here in eastern jackson county.  Also we had pretty decent rain shower move through about an hour ago.  Hope everybody has a great weekend and looking forward to some wintry precip!

RickMckc, that'd be a big snow storm, a realy big snow storm. (Area and totals)

No kidding on the wind, momof3.  I'm out here in eastern Jack too and it has been Kansas in the Wizard of Oz.  Perhaps if I click my heels 3 times I'll get snow!

 what is the new data looking like, anyone?

Well hello everyone, it has been a while since I have blogged, a long time. Mizzou is keeping me busy, that is for sure.  
Farmgirl: One of the reasons why we are going to have such strong winds is because of the pressure gradient of the storm systems. The Isobars on  the weather maps are really compressed, this is a strong indication of very high, strong winds.  The PGF Pressure Gradient Force has a big impact on the types of wind speeds we are looking at.  The stronger the PGF, the greater the winds.  These storm systems are huge, and the slow progression of these storms/disturbances is helping this pro-longed exposure to high winds, in fact some parts of Southeastern Kansas, are expecting gusts 45-55 mph and can be as high as 60Mph.  Big storms+location of high and low pressure systems+strong pressure gradient+ slow movement of storms= long exposure to high winds Hope this Helps :D

I am just about to start finals at MIZZOU, I have finals monday, tues, and then I lucked out and get to go home early, tuesday afternoon, however I am not looking forward to possibly be driving in ice, sleet, and snow.  I am excited for this possible winter storm, but I am not at all excited about the ice, pretty to look at, near impossible to drive in!!!  

I have a question for the weather team: Does latent heat Release (LHR) have any impact on what form of precipitation we receive during winter storms?  I know how different thermal layers of temperatures, and thickness of those layers can affect what type of precipitation, but does latent heat release due to the process of condensation, have any impact on the type of precipitation we get near ground level?

I will let you know what we get in Columbia,Mo and then in Clinton, when? is the question.

I remember what the GFS said about the last snow we had.  It showed on the Saturday before the snow that Johnson County was in an 8inch band, and then 6 or 12 hours before the snow only showed 2-4.  It seems to always start out strong and then die off right before it hits.

Wow the new NAM looks good on snow tuesday also let's see what the GFS says in a bit.

55 and partly cloudy, strong south winds in Overland Park.
I'm expecting temperatures to stay steady overnight, rise to around 60, and the front to arrive in the Overland Park area sometime around 3PM. Temperatures could drop 20 degrees or more in an hour with a front this strong. With the arctic air in place, I don't see a warmup in the forseeable future (at least a week). Don't you love winter in Kansas?

WOXDL-  Let's get to clicking those heels!  I hear you talk about the band concerts and all that and I get the feeling my kids go to your school, it seems the dates of your concerts are the same as the ones at our school.  What a small world if that is true!  I am shocked at the fact that the wind has not let up at all!  That is just terrible out there!

Will the storm shift like the last storm?  northeast NE and Western IA was supposed to get the last storm but we got hit instead.  It seems we are to get a better chance on Tuesday.  
Both the sunday storm and Tuesday storm do have waves moving through Northeast MO.  I don't remember many storms in my life that had temperature drops like this.  The last one I remember was March 27-28th 1987 my 10th birthday.  70 degrees on my birthday riding my new skateboard and a blizzard the 28th in York, NE.

If the LRC is on a 51 day cycle, then 51 days ago was October 24th. That entire week week was not only above average temps, but no precip at all.  If you add three days, yes we had precip the week before.  If you subtract three days, we had none.  
I agree with the concept of the LRC, but don't agree with the "number of days" in a 'cycle'.    The LRC is too generalized and the theory as proposed, leaves way too many options for change.

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GaryB,

As you know once we get through the cycle again...probably within 2 weeks Gary Lezak will be able to give a much more detailed analysis of the LRC.  Each year the estimate is determined earlier, but really the best use of the LRC comes in late December.  I think Gary during his winter forecast highlighting the period from very late November into the Christmas timeframe as an active period has worked out very well.

Jeremy

If 1.75" of snow since late November (so far) is considered active...

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I don't think an active weather pattern can be defined by just precipitation.  There have been numerous ups and downs and storms around the area.  Not everyone has been hit by the snow, but some areas have already picked up 5" of snow this month.  Lots of active weather ahead this week too.

Jeremy

Hey wow, what weather all across the nation, and It gets even more weird, there is a TORNADO WARNING FOR KAUAI HAWAII!!  Now that is nuts!  

I've had 5.75" of snow scince November. That's Active, all the snow just finished melting today.

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