Watch NBC Action News HD this weekend from 8-9 a.m. and at 5 & 10 p.m. for the latest on the arctic front and our upcoming snow chances!
Good Saturday! I want to thank everyone who stopped by one of the area Walmart's today to drop off a toy for our Santa Cause toy drive. I met a few bloggers at my location in Olathe and the overall turnout was tremendous!
A major shift in our weather is still on cue to arrive Sunday afternoon. The changes to the up side arrived Saturday with temperatures soaring into the 50s on strong south winds. There were reports of downed powerlines and power outages in Independence today. And in Rich Hill an old vacant building in the downtown area collapsed because of the gusty winds. The wind will remain on the high side right into Monday. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through Sunday for much of the area.
An arctic front will begin barreling toward Kansas City on Sunday morning. The front right now is just getting its act together over the northern Plains. Behind the front temperatures have dropped below zero in spots and winds are gusting to around 50 mph! Here is the surface map from just after 5 p.m.
The coldest air is lurking just north of the U.S. border where current temps are in the -10s, while we sit 70 degrees warmer in Kansas City! That cold air is poised to drop south tonight and Sunday.
Along with the gusty winds, snow will be accumulating in the northern Plains. This combination has led to a wide swath of states to be placed under Blizzard Warnings where interstates are being closed to keep motorists off them. The Bizzard Warnings are surrounded by lots of Winter Storm Warnings(pink) and Winter Weather Advisories(purple). The tan color over Kansas City represents the Wind Advisory. This map gives a good idea of the wintry weather over the Rockies, Plains, and parts of the Midwest.
On Sunday we will experience a little bit of everything. First off, temperatures will warm into the low to mid 60s between 7 a.m. and 1 p.m. Sunday. Then the arctic front should push through the region. By late in the afternoon temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s. Just behind the front a rain shower is possible, mainly southeast of KC. Then during the evening a some weak upper level energy will move by helping to produce a mix that changes to snow. This precipitation area should be fairly quick hitting moving by in 1-4 hours. Snow totals will likely range from trace amounts to about 1". Maybe an isolated spot with 1.5". Any mixed precipitation of freezing rain, sleet, or other will quickly freeze to road surfaces with the falling temperatures. Some icy spots could develop on the roads Sunday evening. I don't think everyone see's icy roads, but keep this in mind if you have travel plans. Also, if a burst of snow occurs it could quickly drop visibilities to 1/8 of a mile for a brief time considering winds will still be gusty.
The temperature crash will take place quickly, and this temperature forecast map from the 12Z NAM should paint the picture pretty clearly. This is at 6 p.m. Sunday.
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By Monday morning most areas will wake up to single digit lows and only warm into the teens by afternoon! This has the potential to be the coldest airmass to reach the region since January. Monday looks dry and cold.
Overall the next 7-10 days look active around Kansas City. After late Sunday the next best chance for accumulating snow will occur on Tuesday. This is far from clear cut right now and let me tell you why.
The 18Z NAM has a snowstorm over Kansas City on Tuesday. With 0.50"-0.75" in the forecast for spots and highs likely in the teens or 20s this would be a light fluffy snow. Several inches of snow or more would accumulate in this scenario. Just look at the surface map for Tuesday!
Before you get too excited...let's look at the 18Z GFS for the same time period. The GFS is warmer and also has most of the snow in northern Missouri, Nebraska, and Iowa. This solution would also give the possibility of a mix or snow in the metro. Making a forecast past a couple of days in a fast changing weather pattern like we currently have is very difficult. And this is just one example why.
My early thoughts on this are the arctic air will have a tough time departing in just 24 hours or less if it is as strong as we are thinking. To me this signals the GFS is too agressive bringing back the slightly warmer air to the region on Tuesday. Also, if the cold air sticks around for Tuesday the 500mb vort would also likely stay more to the south like the NAM is advertising. I'm not about to jump on the NAM bandwagon yet, but if I had to lean in one direction it would be a little more in the NAM direction.
But first, let's see how Sunday plays out. Please keep in mind some icy spots may develop on the roadways late in the day and a trace to 1.5" of snow is possible across the viewing area. We will try to pin down where the 'heavier' area may fall tonight or first thing Sunday morning.
Finally, something that still amazes me is that Gary had 60 as a forecast high for Sunday all the way back on Monday when others had 40s for forecast highs! Thank you for stopping by the weather blog, and please tell your friends and family where they can find an update and reliable forecast.
Jeremy