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Gary you need to learn how to sleep in!! The wind was terrible during my drive home yesterday....guess today is gonna be the same! I am excited to see how this week turns out. Good luck weather team with the forecasting. Have a great day. I am about to get off work...:o)
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

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Monica,

I did sleep in Saturday.  And, I went to bed early last night, so I am doing O.K.  Thanks!

Gary

Oh and Jeremy....that was an awesome entry for the blog yesterday. Rest up.
Monica

Good morning,we have a church play off of barry road tonight that starts at 6:00,we probably won't be out of there until around 7:30- 8:00 do you think the precip will allready be here and the roads slick? Sorry so long winded,just woke up and not fully awake yet,lol. Thanks in advance,hope it makes since.

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It is just to tough to call on how it will be at 7:30 PM.  We should know by around 5 PM if something is developing.  Not everyone in the viewing area will get accumulations.

Gary

Morning Gary, Team...
The timing of this front and the precipitation that follows is going to create havoc with a live phone bank scheduled for this evening at the local PBS affiliate (and my wife who has to be there too!). Seems to be no way around this, but am curious if the timing of this will be better identified later this morning when Jeff is on-air? Still holding to precip amounts of a trace to 1" and the freezing stuff?

Thanks and Monica is right, you need to learn to sleep in Gary!! - Mike

Is the North Front gonna blast at 40-50MPH? Or a little less force?

I haven't been able to sleep more than 2-3 hours since this awful wind started - too much noise and worrying about the outguildings and farm animals with tonights wind chills.

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It may be just as strong from the north.  This is a tight pressure gradient.  I will talk about it in the blog. I am finishing it in the next hour.

Gary

Gary, I remember almost a week ago (when we had all the snow) when you told Elizabeth on the air that your forecast of 55 Saturday and 60 Sunday was 100 % accurate.  You need to get on the ball Gary - you were off by about a degree or two each day.  C'mon!

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Thanks! LOL  We are particularly proud of today into Monday's forecast.  We went 61 for Sunday and 16 for Monday as early as Tuesday night and stuck with it all the way into today!  Amazingly, it is happening.

Gary

Gary:

Good balmy morning to you sir!! It looks/smells like May out there this morning-what a fascinating morning weather wise this morning!!

Looking at the 12Z and 13Z surface charts it appears the wind shift line is between Topeka and Manhattan but getting real close to Topeka. I wasn't sure if my weather site had the correct data so I wnet and checked the temps. from around the area: Manhattan is currently at 37 with a NW wind at 22 and Concordia, Kansas is at 21 with a NW wind of 21 gusting to 30. The front is in the neighborhood!!!!

I was going to go run some errands today but I am so glued to this that I'm not sure if I can leave the computer LOL!!!

I think one thing that will be interesting to do is check the 12Z model runs and see how well they depict the cold-the 0Z GFS was pretty far off last night in its depiction of the Cold in Nebraska and even back into southern Canada and Montana. The NAM had a better handle on the cold air. Just something I noticed.

Whatever happens, I have not seen a front this strong since December of 1989-at least that I remember-we had a strong one last year but this is just nuts. This is just awesome to follow!!

Fun times!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

Please check in with your comments from time to time today. I am not sure if this is the strongest since 1989, but it is definitely stronger than any I have seen in years.  You may be right.  But, then again we may get an even stronger one this winter.  Now, can we order some snow please.

Gary

this is exciting.

sadly I'm sick..so I won't be running outside to see it....

The wind is howling North of Leavenworth and has been all night long, but the tempatures are very mild, even with the wind. I can tell something significant is brewing as we have a slew of new baby calves on the ground this morning and the rest of the cows are all laying down. I need to go to OP today, but worry about getting caught in the weather...any ideas for up North as far as time line goes, i want to be in snug as a bug in a rug before it happens!

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I just blogged about the timing. The front is moving very fast.

Gary

Good Morning Gary and forcasting team,

I would like to ask your advice on traveling. We are in Fort Collins, CO right now and are planning on driving a 26 ft moving truck back to KC with one stop in central Kansas for a graveside service my grandmother. Our drive into KC would be tomorrow. We are planning on leaving in about an hour. Would mind sharing your thoughts? Thanks so much for all you do!

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It should be dry for your drive back tomorrow. Today could have a little snow over northwestern Kansas and Eastern Co.

Good luck!

Gary

What time will the front make ii through Johnson County Executive Airport?

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I am guessing right now around noon give or take an hour.

Gary

As of 7AM below are a few reports from just north.  Look at the difference between Falls City & Lincoln.  53 in Falls City, NE and 20 in Lincoln roughly 90 miles apart.  Also with those same 2 places wind in Falls City is SW and wind in Lincoln is NW.  Seems pretty easy to tell where the front is right now.

I have found in the past on these arctic fronts that using KC, Falls City, & Lincoln make for a nice little trend with 90 to 100 miles between each.

At 3:54AM it was 51 degrees in Lincoln.  3 hours it has made it to 20...ouch!

I'm watching in comparison to see when the drop starts in Falls City, or when it reaches 20 or less in Falls City, and I'm willing to bet the time frame between Lincoln & Falls City will be very comparable to Falls City & KC.

SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
FALLS CITY     CLEAR     53  46  77 SW16G28   29.38R
LINCOLN        MIX PCPN  20  12  71 NW22G33   29.52R WCI   3

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Thanks for the info. It is going to be a dramatic day!

Gary

Anna, the winds on I-70 going across Kansas are going to be insane in that truck.  good luck!

Do yo still believe what you put here Gary?

http://community.nbcactionnews.com/blogs/weatherblog/archive/2008/12/13/3620194.aspx

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JUBA,

What specifically are you asking?

Gary

And wouldn't you know it by the time I finish writing that post from 6:53AM report at Falls City of 53, the 7:23AM reports shows it to be 34.  30 minutes 20 degree drop.  wow!

8:18A - still  53.6F at my house in SW Topeka.  Manhattan was at 28F at 8:00A so I know the end of the warm temps is near...

Just checked in with Jeff on the broadcast. Well, timing couldn't possibly be worse... yikes! Is anyone in the newsroom checking with KCMO or MoDOT about pre-treating? (Well, I can hope they pre-treat can't I???

Thanks! - Mike

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Mike,

To pre-treat or not is a tough one.  Will there be any significant precipitation?  And, how cold and windy will it by if the precipitation does develop?  We will know more soon.

Gary

Gary:

Thanks for the reality check LOL I am for sure getting a little over excited about this front-what elese is new LOL -I am sure we have had fronts just as strong as  this since 1989-I know there was a strong one in mid December of 2000 as well. The 1989 first blast-there were several in that month with the motherlode comming down around the 23rd-will always be etched in my memory. It was in the 50s that day and then I was driving on 23rd and at Checkers that night, the big U.S. flag there just went calm and then boom-the flag turned and went staight south and it imediately began to snow-every time I drive by there I think of that. That was an amazing month of cold here and I wonder if I will ever see that kind of cold again 24 below-man that is just crazy cold for here!!!

Well at the 7:53 update Manhattan is down to 27 degrees-here it comes!!!

I hope Tuesday works out as it has the makings of a good snow for us-cold air in place-energy from the SW-but will waa get us?? Still 48 hours away which in snow storms for here may as well be 5 weeks LOL!!!

Whatever happens, today is just incredible to follow-27 in Manhattan and 60 here-awesome!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

The NAM just came out with another snowy solution for us. But, I know the GFS is going to take it north. We deserve one don't you think?  Deserving one doesn't mean we could be left frustrated.

Gary

Snow.

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There will likely be snowstorm very close to us on Tuesday.  Just like every snowstorm there will be a cut-off line where areas get missed.  Where will this line be located?  The lastest NAM just came out with the bullseye of heaviest snow right over Kansas City, but the other models have had it north.  I am not ready to go for it yet.

Gary

Gary,
You can see the wind shift on the radar now out of topeka. It is moving very quickly. Ryan

The front is passing through SW Topeka!  Gusty NW winds....with sunshine to the east the sky is dark to the west and looks sort of like a springtime squall line coming in. No precip though.

Check out the temp drop here! Brrr!

8:25A  54.1F
8:35A  37.4F

You can now clearly see the front on visible satellite, very impressive for sure! Looks like its about to pass through St. Joe and Topeka.

David

53 at 7AM in Hutchinson and now 26...with a brisk north wind around 25-30..

Have a good day all ans stay warm!

JP

Good Morning again everybody-yea-I'm hooked all the way on this!!! The front is getting closer to here as our winds are really picking up again from the South-I think they are getting ready to turn-I am trying to hold off on my errands until they do because I want to be outside when they do turn!!!

MikeL: that is awesome man!!

I am not sure if I am barking up the right tree or not with this or but the last 3 runs the NAM has handeled the cold air better than the GFS. I think it will be interesting to see how the 12Z run of the GFS intializes the cold air as I think that will have consequences of later out puts. The 0Z GFS was fairly far off on how strong this cold air was when one compares it to the actual surface data. I wrote down some number of the 12Z data and the NAM again did a pretty decent job of showing where the cold air was and what the actual temperatures were. Will be interesting to see if the 12Z GFS can do a better job with these surface temps.

For sure there is a battle between the GFS and NAM the last 3 runs-both are pretty consistent in thier outputs. I keep thinking of the Rush song Bytor and the Snow Dog-prepare for battle let the games begin....which one is correct...I am for sure not qualified to make an educated guess but since the NAM seems to have the temp. profiles better compared to actual data I think the NAM may be onto something. It may be 0z tonight before Tuesday really comes into clearer focus.

Snow in the Topeka/Kansas City corridor-always a nail biter!! LOL

Bill in Lawrence

Looking at the NexRad radar out of Topeka it looks like the front has blown through NW Douglas County and is now about 20 miles from Lawrence-I think-man this is fun to follow!!!

Bill in Lawrence

Can anyone tell me when the precip would start?  I know the front will move through around noon but I want to make sure that I am not out when the precip starts.  Is is going to be around 3 or so still?
Thanks
Becky
Parkville

Bill in Lawrence, extra credit for the obscure Rush reference!

Let it snow!

Just stepped outside here at 151st and Murlen. Still very warm out here with STRONG winds out of the south. I agree, it does look all dark and stormy just to the north of here. I'll be out on my deck, watching things progress!! I know, I'm such a nerd!!! :)

Hello!  I'm new to this blog, but have been reading it for quite sometime.  I live in St. Joe and the temperature was 60 degress at 8:00 am and dropped to 50 within 15 minutes.  It's definitely chilly out!

Good Morning Gary and the weather team!

Currently sitting at 59.4 here in western KCK. Waiting on this arctic front to plow into the region. Click on my name to see my weather station track the changes. I think it will update every minute or so, but rapidfire works best as it is live feed. Hoping for some snow as well tonight!! Gary...with the roads all wet around KC do you think this will dry out fast or just freeze?

Bryan

So...I live up near Liberty and need to get groceries today.  Obviously, I'd like to do it before the precip hits... what time do you think it will start up here??

Gary:

The front just came through Lawrence-awesome!!! Man the feel and the wind shift was just incredible!!!

Bill in Lawrence

Latest on the front:

... POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT TO USHER IN SHARPLY COLDER AIR...

AT 8 AM... A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI... AND WILL REACH A MARYVILLE TO ST. JOSEPH LINE AROUND 9 AM... AND SURGE TO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 10 AM... IMPACTING THE KANSAS CITY METRO TO CAMERON TO BETHANY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT... UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S WILL INSTANTLY PLUMMET 25 TO 30 DEGREES... FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY FALL INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON.

PERSONS OUTDOORS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE SUDDEN ONSET OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.

Bill, enjoy the frontal passage - it was pretty "cool" here!  ;)

At my house in SW Topeka it is 31.6F - that is 23 degrees colder than an hour ago!

Well, it's off to Church - enjoy the ride today everyone!  Mike

Wow, that was pretty amazing. Front just passed 19th and Mass in Lawrence...went from a pleasant 60 or so to a sudden "winter-feeling" wind...temp dropped to mid 40s within about 60 seconds.

Gary,

What are those clouds on the Visible Sat. This Front is so strong and well defined on the vis. sat. by those clouds, they almost look like cumulonimbus clouds??

Cold Air stratus clouds that are right along the front??

You can just see it coming, my son told me to come and see how warm it is, even with a chill in the air, its still nice at moment.  But of to the North and Northwest the clouds are dark, so I know it's just a matter of time.

wooo! its blowing through now...the temp is dropping quickly! it was 59 less than five minutes ago, its down to 50.  real low ominous looking clouds are rolling in with the front.  you can see it coming in...

Spoke to soon, just stepped back out, and the wind is alot colder now, the front is on us, or at least the beginning of it. Hoping for some snow now. Keep up the Good work team(Gary,Jeremy).  

Jesse in Leavenworth

Cloud formation is quite interesting from the North and Northwest. Very dark. I assume the front is getting ready to come through. Winds still from the SW. If this was spring or summer, I would think a thunderstorm is coming, that is how dark the clouds are.

all i can say is wow what a quick change st joseph is at 36 right now get ready south here it comes.

Currently 42 in St Joseph...The descent is upon us.  Just recently it was 58.....

Jennifer

Gary, I have a flight at 5:40 am, on Tuesday morning.  Do you think we might make it out of here before the storm?  I hope so!

Quick update before I leave the house...the temp is now 28.6F at my house in SW Topeka.

Andrew, as I noted earlier the frontal passage at my house reminded me of a springtime squall line (without any precip) viewed in the morning sun.  It was pretty awesome!  Mike

can someone please tell me if they know when the precip is supposed to start?  Is is still around 3 or so?  I have to be out and about before that and I want to be at home before the roads have a chance to get bad.
thanks
becky
parkville

The front is moving through Platte City right now, as I'm sure KCI data would verify. 8 degree drop in 5 minutes, currently 52 degrees, winds rapidly switching from SW to W-NW.

So is this front moving through quicker than it was supposed to?  It seems that a few of the stations have said it would be here by about noon, but from what the bloggers are saying, it's already changing. ****************** A little quicker...but it should be a surprise to no one. We talked about 60 to teens already last Monday. Jeremy

Ok... So apparently I have not been paying attention to the forecast (I usually do) and did not realize just how fast this front would be coming through. I have a pre Christmas gathering around 3 today. I was also planning to finish Christmas shopping and grocery shopping this evening. I guess I may need to change my plans.  Oh well. I don't mind the snow but the ice is another story.

Go Tuesday for a snowstorm!!! I'm ready for a snow day!

9 am....55 degrees
9:25.......34 degrees
winds have switched out of the North and  the cloud bank is low and black

At 9:55AM

Lawrence 37 degrees
Olathe 60 degrees

Front is on radar if you look closely about ready to hit W. JOCO and Wyandotte.

Thanks Jeremy :)  I'm not surprised...just a little sad.  I am one one of the very few on this board who would be happy with no snow this winter...or at least not to where it impacts my "ability" to get to work :) *************** The GFS keeps ups relatively snow free through Tuesday. Jeremy

Can someone please post a good link to watch the front move thru with?  Thanks

48.4 here in KCK now...coming on in!!

I still have the temp here at about 61, lol but im eagerly awaiting the drop! lol but i also noticed that the NWS has upped our snow accumulations to 1-3 inches for tonite! So are we thinking about any possible freezing rain or sleet with this? and should it continue through the night?

Thanks!

Gary:

That frontal passage was so cool in all meanings of the word!!!

I am probably making a montain out of a mole hill with this but the GFS has again not done very well intializing the surface temps. At 12Z according to the surface data I am using, the front was well through Concorida, Kansas and the temp. was at 21-on the 12Z GFS intitalization the front is still in Nebraska and Concordia was still in the upper 40's to lower 50's. The GFS also did not have the cold air depicted very well back into Nebraska, Montana or the Dakotas. The 12Z NAM had a much better handle on the depth and progression of the cold air than did the 12Z GFS. Again, I have no idea if I am even on a right track here nor do I have the back ground/knowledge to make a real educated analysis but I really think the NAM right now has a better handle on this whole thing than does the GFS. I actually wonder if we won't begin to see a shift south with this Tuesday event in later model runs espeically on the GFS.  I just don't see this going North of us on Tuesday.  I am just thinking out loud here and hope this makes some sense!!! I do for sure want snow but I swear I am not trying to wish cast with this!! This is just something I have noticed!! Why do I feel like brave Sir Robin in Monty Python's Search for The Holy Grail-I swear I didn't run away...

I am now down to 32 degrees here in SW Lawrence-man what an impressive front-there are some single digits already in South Central Nebraska!!! Awesome!!

Bill in Lawrence

The air is still warm out, but the skies definitely look like cold winter skies. It will be a crazy day, that much is for sure.

Low bloack vlouds, 62 degrees, you can watch the front with the clearing it made, birds are flying everywhere and cumulanimbus clouds are building!

41 now in KCK....20 degree temp drop in 6 mins

Then I worship the GFS :)

10:07 here is Easton, MO and it's now 34.....started out the day at 58 around 9 am this morning

Jennifer

It was 60˚ at 10:05 here at 68th Terr. and Oak.  It's now 58˚ and we're getting a few little sprinkles.  Dea

39 now in kck

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Thank you!  And, I just updated the blog entry.  Look for a full blog update later on today after the Chiefs game.  Here comes the cold air!

Gary

The cold front is definitely hitting me now (near 291 & Stark, near Liberty).  About 10 minutes ago I stood on my deck and it was definitely in the upper 50's.  Just went out and yeah...not the 50's anymore.  I dont have a themometer, but I'd say it dropped at least 10 degrees.  Sad...

Holy Cow.

Standing on my deck one minute ago.

In a few seconds, winds change North and Pow!!!!  The cold air is here in Olathe.

Wow!  Went from 59 to seeing my breath in one minute!

I live in southern Johnson County and was outside about 25 minutes ago and the weather was mild.  As I was getting the girls ready for holiday pictures, I could feel the temperature drop from in the house-that's pretty dramatic to say the least!  Watching the clouds race by was amazing.  Does anyone know the link to see what the NAM is predicting snow-wise?  

I-29/Barry Rd.: 59.6 to 44.3 in less than 15 minutes...WOW!  

The winds have shifted here in Olathe and a random sprinkle or two. Wow, you can really feel that temp. drop!!!

Gary cant you use the LRC and be able to overule the models for tuesday?????????

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Not quite yet!  It is in January through June that the LRC really tremendously helps on a short range forecast like this.  This Arctic front when initialized on today and tonights data will allow the models to come into closer agreement.  Someone is going to see a few inches of snow, but is it here or Iowa?

Gary

front just went through trenton @ 1045am.. temp falling rapidly.. winds NW@17-25mph

Front's rolling thru here at 68th Terr. and Oak!  Winds are howling from the North now and the temps have dropped 10˚- now down to 50˚!!!

Big drop in temps in Lenexa in the past few minutes...about 15 degrees!

Wow.  Went into church at 9:15 it was warm.  Walked out the door at 10:30 and it is 34 degrees.  It is lightly sleeting here.  Very light but its bouncing off the cars.  I prayed for snow today, I need snow days to catch my work up before finals on THursday! I am ready for big, giant snow!

quick question, how fast is the front moving?

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I am just going to guess it is moving at around 55 mph. 

Gary

When should we expect the precip to start?

Wow! Short of some impressive thunderstorms I've seen, this ranks right up there with the most impressive weather events I've had the opportunity to witness. Decided to do some minor yard work just so I could be outside when the front came through, and I can't get over the dramatic change. Started in shorts and a t-shirt, finished in jeans, sweatshirt and gloves ... all in 30 minutes! In Olathe, we're now close to 15 degrees lower than where we were earlier today. Really amazing!

I am looking at the pine trees between my neighbors house and mine. I am looking S. They have gone from leaning E to the tops just moving around in circles. I wonder if the front is here? The wind has dropped down...
audra in Lee's Summit

Went from mid 50s in Liberty at 1045 to 33 here at 1110!  Wow.  Can't wait to see where we'll be in another 30 minutes.

Come on Snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!

A drop of 16! degrees here in Stilwell. I do not recall such a precipitous temperature drop in recent times. In fact in the last 30 minutes every time my thermometer updates it is a fraction colder! Clouds still moving to the North however with light rain falling! What an interesting hour it has been!

The NWS is predicting 4-5 inches of snow for Marceline on Tuesday. Seems a bit early for this.

Alex

27 now here in Easton, MO at 11am

Jennifer

In just over an hour's time, temps have dropped almost 20˚!  Now sitting at 42˚ right now- 68th Terr. and Oak.  Pretty amazing!  Getting just a few sprinkles off and on also.

Clouds moving North but my wind indicator has shifted and surface winds seem to start blowing from the North. Quite interesting!

Starting to rain cold rain drops here in Lee's Summit.

It's heeerrrrre.....(Lee's Summit) : )

Gary: This may be a stupid question but how come thunderstorms don't build ahead of this front? Is it just not warm enough? I figured with this dramatic of a change there could be storms that would develop.

Beats last December

Wow, it went from pleasant to foging up my glasses when I exhaled in only a few minutes. It is so cool, you could feel the temp. dropping. I'm back inside now, it got a little chilly for me.
Audra in Lee's Summit (corner of the 7 and Colbern)

sleet was in and out.  must ve been associated with the front passing

Wow, the temps went from 61 to 45 degrees in only a few minutes.

It was so cool watching the winds shift on the weather vane.

Do you think the roads will be clear by tomorrow afternoon?  I haev an itnerview!

Went to a 8:00 soccer game at 58 degress and then to the store came out and it was 30.  What a change.

TO the WX team sand Bill in Lawrence.  The GFS calls for the heavy snow on tuesday to be just north of st joe. . . last week's four inch event for SE KC was 2-3 days out fotcasted to be right over st joe . . . there should be some logic to to these trends.... Also NWS in KC  says 3-5 for north half on MO on Tuesday and Topeka is saying 2-4 for its forcast area.  By to nite should be able to tell.  Just remember the ratio .25 inches of moisture would be 4-5 inches of snow and if there is more just do the math .50 moisture easy 6-7 due to compaction.

went from 63 to 53 in harrisonville. in about 5 minutes!

Brent

It's no surprise to see how fast the temperatures are dropping. In fact, Goodland is 61 degrees colder than yesterday (64 vs. 3) at the same time!

3 degrees?? wow

Now a 67 degree contrast between Joplin,MO and Goodland,KS!

I was outside waiting on the front and the winds didn't really turn but kinda went funky instead. kinda all over the place.  It was 62 at 11:40 and by 11:51 it was already 57.  I'm in Strasburg in Cass county.  It is 47 now 12:10.  

11:52 - 55.1
11:53 - 53.9
11:55 - 52.2
11:59 - 50.3
12:00 - 49.9
12:04 - 48.4

wow. i was out around 11:40 changing the batteries in my weather wind/temp sensors, and the wind slowed down quite a bit and temps dropped...down to 39 right now!

42 now, winds not as strong.  

20 degrees in less than an hour, WOW!

The winds just picked up some.    When the front came thru they died down though.

This morning at around 10 it was 61 in Lee's Summit, it is not 37.6 and dropping!!!

New Blog

New Blog

You can see a visual temp difference from Falls City, NE to Little Rock, Arkansas on website here: http://kclongrangeweather.com/3.html

no new blog yet...

Now 90 minutes since my last update, down to 25 degrees in Liberty.  Seems the temperature decline has slowed down.  We dropped 20+ in 30 minutes and now just 8 more in 90 minutes.  Still doesn't look good for tonight and tomorrow.

Seems to me this snow storm on Tuesday could be interesting.  I am seeing predictions all over the place already even though we are 48 hours out.  Scarier yet each location is saying the same thing, 2-4 in the metro and 3-5+ North of the city.  Could be a long week at this rate!!!!

Ummm ... looks like the same blog to me.

Grambo, you are correct.  The temp in Lee's Summit at 10 was 61.  The front hit Lee's Summit at 11:30.

I know you said it would drop fast but that was unreal.  We were playing catch in the back yard & enjoying the nice spring like weather & then it was like someone opened a freezer door.  Stay warm everyone!

so is it after 3 that the precip is supposed to start?

I was out working on my truck when the front hit around 10:15 , it was unreal!!!

UGGGHH, i missed it!   I slept right through it.  Must have been he 50mph wind all night.  Good sleeping weather, lol.  
Dad told me all about it though, it looked like a squal line in the spring, although he knew it was the sun intesifying the effect, he said it was VERY EEERY.  
Right now in Springdale we have fallen to 21.6 degrees and still falling.  Microscopic snow pellets if you strain your eyes for an hour staring at at something dark- LOL, you know all of of snow lovers have done that once or twice.  I would liked to have filmed it, but I know I will have other opportunities.  
There is some snow over central and western KS moving at a decent clip, is this maybe where some of our flakes will come from later?  Its really dark out here, I live in the country with lots of trees so I always love when we have weather like this, it always looks five times worse then it actually is.   So we have cold air now.
Now all we need is our second wish!  Several chances this week I see.  I bet we have a white Christmas this year!  I am trying to use the LRC myself, dangerous stuff!  But I am thinking December could be one of our active months.  
Everyone have a great day, it has seemed the winds did not hold after the front passed , they have died down quit a bit.        

Gary said he would update after the chiefs game...guess we'll have to wait until then to have a new blog.  But, if we aren't going to have snow with this cold, then let's reverse the front and watch it go from 28 to 61 in a matter of minutes!!!

It's still windy here. They died down for a bit but now they are back at it.  I have no way of knowing how fast though, sorry.

We will see some flakes later.  I bet.  
The wind again is gusting here too within the last half hour or so in Sprindale KS,
North Wind is  a study 13mph, highest gust in the last hour is 27mph from the north.  Still not the 50mph all last night, I couldn't beleive that!   Sounded like a twelve hour severe T-Storm!  
But as far as the flakes remember they weren't really supposed to arrive until late this afternoon anyhow.  A Dusting to maybe the lucky winner of an inch somewhere in the viewing area.    Just be glad we have the cold air in play now, we first have to have that before we see any snow anyway!

18Z nam coming out...

I can't wait to see the updated forcast, especially for Tuesday.  Supposed to finish Christmas shopping in KC and we are coming from Colony.  I hope KC doesn't get much precipatation.  (This time, anyway!)

Okay, so I'm on this website for the NCEP NAM Model Forecasts, and have absolutely NO idea what I'm looking at.  Can someone help please explain?  http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/  I have no idea what any of this stuff means or where to go do see the latest predictions.

when is the precip supposed to even start forming?

What's the 18Z nam look like?  What is it showing?

Yeah when?

Shallow, anyone?

http://rucsoundings.noaa.gov/gifs/reply-skewt.cgi?data_source=MAPS&lon=-104.67&lat=39.87&airport=kmci

chfs327,
that was last nights data

chfs327...what exactly does that mean?

Any idea what that would translate to in terms of snow fall?  Or is it all ready in terms of snow fall?  Still trying to figure all this out!  Thanks!

Looks like not as aggresive and a little farther north.

looks like a line of thunderstorms has developed in central Missouri.

Well the NAM is starting to go with the GFS on a further north position for tuesday.

Brett, there is already a winner in the snowflake contest.  
At the moment, looks like any freezing precip will be minor...
Maybe some flurries late, but for snow lovers, Tuesday is looking good.

Was watching the Cheifs gome and the announcer said the local wethermen missed the forcast of 60 degrees, I think he must have looked at the high and not the forcast.

1*low, realy?  Yikes! 26 here now.

Fellow Bloggers,
The new NAM is starting to look like the less snowy farther north GFS runs....
Just like clockwork. The snow is leaving the forecast.
Way to go to all the stations and the NWS for calling for 3-6'' way to early.
later...
way to be not stupid gary and team

Man what is it with the lack of snow this year!  We are gonna miss it every time.  I hate to say it but POOF!  Should I be shocked?  I want a good ol fashioned Little House on the Prairie snowstorm.  You know so bad that when Pa goes outside you can't even see him?  We just don't live in a good area for snow do we?

the snow is starting to come together in KS and moving this way!

The models may be leaning that way now, but haven't we learned just recently in fact that things can change big time in the next 24 hours?

well it looks like a major snow event tuesday nws now says heavy snow 36 highway north 3-6 inches looks like st joseph will see its first major snow event.thursday is really looking like a freezing rain event.

Where did we go wrong - sure we are getting these small systems that clip us as they move east, or may give us some minor accumulations as they form over us.... but Kansas City (most of - especially north) is really falling behind on snowfall. I've measured 1.76" so far, including .01 from a dusting.

From the NWS:

"The total precipitation at the Kansas City International airport for the autumn 2008 season (September-November) was 15.42 inches, which is 5.15 inches above the 30-year average. This would rank autumn 2008 as the 11th wettest fall season in the longer term 120 "


You would think the LRC would indicate this would be above average for snowfall, but so far in this first recycling of the LRC pattern, Kansas City (and much of the region) is missing out. Usually by this time someone within 120 miles has had a good 6 or 8" snow - but so far as far as I can remember, the 4-5" storm we had last week has been the largest in the region, aside from a 3" storm north of St. Louis back in late November.

I'm actually concerned - as I've stated before - that we will have a less than 12" winter. If this part of the pattern we are in this week and next fails to produce a significant accumulating snow event for Kansas City - I think 20-25" is going to be near impossible to reach for this winter - and 10" may even be hard to get - although areas south of the river / Lee's Summit, Overland Park, Olathe / may find it somewhat easier to get around 10-14" this winter.

Models will change by tomorrow night.  24 hours is plenty of time.  Still excited about what will we get this week!

I don't know if it means anything, but it is unusual so I thought I would mention it.. We have flocks of birds in the backyard looking for food. We never have this many birds in the back yard and lining the roof of the garage. One black swarm comes and then leaves, and another swarm comes. Bad weather coming?
Audra

spotter,
the NWS wrote that before the 18z NAm came out. the new NAM has the snow way to the north in iowa.

Audra, I think it is the cold the birdies are worried about.  Just a guess though.  Animals have that weather instinct.  Probably trying to fatten up because I doubt they will be flying around much in the cold that is coming up.  

Wind Chill Advisory

It was FREEZING at the Chiefs game!!!  What happened to that 62 degree temperature until around 4PM there guys!?!?!  I was dressed for the warmer and landed up freezing my hind end off...along with my grandma! LOL.

I forgive you though....

Jacob

Hey Gary-  I love the blog.  I usually only post when things can really affect me.  I have a flight Thursday evening and the NWS is predicting freezing rain.  Is this something I should be concerned about?  Also what's the criteria for a wind chill advisory because 10 below is damn cold.

The NAM has the snowy soluation and the GFS, has the less snowy soluation

Light accumulations tonight and tuesday let's see what happens to thursday?

KansasPatroit, You are correct.  It's the cold the birds are worried about.

Good afternoon everybody!!

Just came in from running errands etc. and man it is cold outside-no two ways about it!!! Wow!!

Regarding Tuesday: There is no doubt that I am snow lover to the max but I swear what I am about to type is not wish casting: (Again, que Monty Python's Brave Sir Robin: Bill in Lawrence made a wish cast-Bill in Lawrence made a wish cast-no I didn't-no I didn't-I swear!!!!)

1. Both 18Z runs did not intialize the surface features very well at all-even the 18Z NAM had issues this time. This has been anissue the past 3-4 runs.

2. The storm for Tuesday I think is just now comming on shore as the radar in central California shows so they will not have a good handle on it until at least the 0z runs tonight if not the 12Z runs tomorrow.

3. This front: There was not one model that showed how fast and how hard this front would come through here-I really think they are having issues with this strong of a front and until they can get a handle on it everything else beyond tomorrow is somewhat suspect. It even looks now like the front is slowing down somewhat-where will it wind up to our East and how far south will it really dive??

4. All that being siad, there has been a trend develop for this to go further North Tuesday and the GFS has been down right set on it the past 4 runs. So it is for sure hard to ignore a trend like this but I am not going to give up on Tuesday until I see a radar with massive snow in Iowa on Tuesday and us with partly cloudy skies and temps. in the mid 30's. As far as Thursday-man who knows-with everything going on today and with Tuesday, Thursday may as well be 6 weeks out.

Just some very humble opinions from a hobbyist-please take with a massive grain of salt and whenever I get all gung ho on something like these models and surface temps. I always wind up with egg on my face!!! LOL I.E. I probably have no idea what I am talking about-but hey I did stay at a Holidy Inn Express last night...

For now, I am going to enjoy the cold temps., the fact that I got to experience one whale of a front this morning and hopefully watch some lite snow fly here in a couple of hours!!!

Have a great afternoon

Bill in Lawrence

CAN YOU SAY ....MODELITUIS......let's wait for another run or two, by Monday morning we will know pretty good.... remember moisture needed for 3-5 is .25 inches... we get .15 inches we will have 2-3 inches; we get .4 to .5 inches of moisture that is 6-9 inches of snow it will be only 20 degrees . .. be willing to wait

CAN YOU SAY ....MODELITUIS......let's wait for another run or two, by Monday morning we will know pretty good.... remember moisture needed for 3-5 is .25 inches... we get .15 inches we will have 2-3 inches; we get .4 to .5 inches of moisture that is 6-9 inches of snow it will be only 20 degrees . .. be willing to wait

Could the really low temperatures along with the really low wind chill temps be enough to cancel school tomorrow.  I believe that for Lee's Summit the wind chill has to be around -10 to -15 or so to call school off...

I like how the GFS has constant precip in a long line from northern Louisiana and arkansas all the way through the Ohio river valley like all hours... LOL

and i agree with kansaspatriot, anything could happen in 24 hours!

Stopping by with a couple of thoughts:

1) The St. Louis NWS just put Columbia and points to the east under a Winter Weather Advisory from 6 pm to midnight tonight. Its about time they issued one, the chance of precip goes up the farther east you go from KC to STL.

2) The models. Right now i am not sure which model is the strongest. Too me they all blew today saying the the front would come through KC around the end of chiefs game. I clearly showed up almost 6 hours earlier than thought. Thats almost a whole model run earlier. I have no confidence in a model right they are not really in line right now. Garbage In =  Garbage Out.

Ill will let you know what happens in Columbia

Hey there...I just got in from the Chiefs' game and heartbreaking loss to the Chargers and all I can say is BRRRRR!!!

I can't believe how much the temperature dropped from kickoff at Noon to 3 P.M.!  It was so cold and windy when we got out of there that it felt like my skin was being ripped away from my bones!

Thanks for getting it right with the forecast though, because at least I was able to bundle up and prepare, even though all my protective layers did little to fight the weather.  Now it's time to hunker down for the incoming snow...

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Very cold, currently 18 degrees, looks like no snow tonight.

that snow doesnt look that impressive.....any thoughts how tonight will turn out?
Becky
Parkville

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We have flurries in Sprindale- 13 miles to the west of Leavenworth now.  
They have been falling for about 45 mins or so.  
Tuesday .... I will base my conclusion when it is closer.  Right now anything could happen and we are due for atleast more than an inch.  
I noticed storms have been producing more to the east of KC.  I hope this isn't an all winter trend!  
So right now im having my own fun with the power wash.    My yard is under an ice storm warning as we currently speak, lol.  Its always something I do to get a kick when Im hard up for winter weather.   The flurries are coming down a bit more steadily now.  Maybe we will se a dusting afterall?