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We live up north of Mosby. Very weird weather coming through right now. Thunder, lightening and snow pellets coming down.  Looks like ice melt landing on the deck.

wild day today sitting at 17 degrees in Lee's Summit with 10 mph winds! waiting on the snow/sleet!

Snowing as i type this in Leavenworth, and mark it down, i'm the first to comment on a new blog, yay

18 Degrees.  A trace of sleet so far in Strasburg.  Windy, Wish I knew how fast the wind was.  Come on Snow!

guess i'm not first,lol

Just started sleeting here in NE Independence.  Large sleet pellets and lots of them.

Pre-treated- What's that?? 69 Hwy south of Louisburg never gets pre-treated. And last weeks minor snow wasn't even removed from 69 Hwy until you crossed into Johnson County. Guess it will be a slow drive to work in the morning.

Wish I had the snow instead of the sleet. I thought this was suppose to be a snow event now????

VdoMan, wish I had only 10 MPH winds. It's blasting here in the country (La Cygne area) at 22 MPH with much higher gusts.

Sounds like popcorn popping with the sleet hitting the windows.

Now a graupel/snow mix in NKC. The street temp is 24.5 (using an IR thermometer).

I just noticed that we are under a WWA....had no idea. lol

It's pouring SLEET out here in Olathe! Some snowflakes mixed in too!

Awesome - got loud thunder and very large sleet - almost pea size!!!

Changed to moderate snow at 119th and blackbob

Winter Weather Advisory just issued!

well the last post i made on the old blog gog lost ion cybe space 10 dergrees wind NNW at 22 no precip.

Tuesday will wait and see LRC says it shoukld happen.....IT WILL HAPPEN.....

I live in a small town, we don't do pre treat.  Or snow removal for that matter.  

*peeps out window*

Light precipitation in Overland Park area.

Snow coming down now in Lenexa.  

Streets are covered starting to snow near WOF the streets are covered

12 degrees and snowing big flakes in NW Olathe

sleet in SE Lee's Summit, coming down pretty good at 7:15

Hi Gary!

Light sleet/snow mixture here in Stilwell and the temperature 15.4. Wind has decreased but seems to be gusting more than it did a few hrs ago. Rapid accumulation however.

<1/2 mile visibility in Lawrence. Heavy snow with big flakes and some sleet mixed in.

I was just wondering how old everyone on this blog? I am 19

Looks like Platte [southern] and Clay could have a longer period of Slt and SN

SNOWING in Holt :)

It has started to sleet here again. Strasburg, Cass County.  17 Degrees. The winds are howling.

Sleet ganging to snow with falling temperatures - light to moderate winds and rapid coating of all surfaces here in Stilwell.

If we where to build a 30,000 foot wall along the canada borader how would that affect are weather???

It's snowing in east Independence, MO.

snowing pretty good south of Kearney, streets are covered, saw lightning in liberty around 545

Here in Drexel the sleet is almost like hail, with lighting and thunder!! I have never seen sleet that big and come down that hard!!! Now trying to turn to snow.

streets already covered in Raytown.  It sure is pretty!

Hi everyone, here by the Legends, it was sleet (heavy) and now blowing snow and cold cold!!!

Sleet in Greenwood and 13 degrees.

This is the heaviest snow I've seen in 2 years...1/2" already on the ground!  It started sleeting at 6:20 and quickly transitioned to light snow.  Heavy snow now in the Northland...

ATL 2 KCMO hey kid you asked I am 50 no doubt i could be your dad maybe your granddad!

About a quarter inch of sleet down here in Ottawa, KS - and COLD!
Stay warm, everyone - and God bless and keep our street crews (and send them down my street, please?).

atl,
I am 30, live in Parkville.
Becky

-6 degree windchill up near Staley High School

Jeepers, it is still sleeting! More like hail. Glad I brought the horses in.

Big flakes in Blue Springs!

33 hear.  I just heard thunder, WOW.  I am impressed.   The sleet has covered the roads here in Strasburg.  Has not turned to snow yet.  16 degrees and windy.

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT.

PERIODS OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO MIX
IN AT TIMES THROUGH MID EVENING. SLEET MAY BE MODERATELY HEAVY AT
TIMES...WITH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE JUST SHY OF ONE HALF INCH.
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME ALL SNOW DURING THE
MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE AROUND ONE HALF
INCH AS WELL.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

Gary -

On the previous blog you mentioned that your snow amounts haven't changed while the GFS and NAM have been all over the place. I'm sorry, but I don't recall any snow projections for the upcoming snow event. As far as I knew, you weren't sold on anything. I don't mean to be rude, but did I miss something?

Heck of a day

---------------

Exactly,

We had an inch or less for tonight, and we haven't made any snowfall forecast for Tuesday yet.  I will make a forecast after the game for Tuesday's event.  Yes, you are right, but the GFS has been consistent in saying no accumulation. 

Gary

Hi all - longtime "lurker", first time poster!  It's snowing now in SW Independence - started as sleet about 30 mins. ago.  What an exciting weather day!  

-----------------

Thank you so much for participating.  Yes, today was a very exciting day, a dramatic one for sure with the temperature drop.

Gary

Meegosh,

Both models have now moved the snow storm way north of here.

Dont expect much from tuesday at all....

Adrian is now getting sleet/rain mix. Sounds like hail hitting the house. We have had thunder and lightning as well. Outside temps are 22. Crazy weather. And Atl, I am 45.

Pat

Sleeting like crazy in Pleasant Hill! Thunder and lightening as well!  Hope it turns to snow soon!

I wonder if that 1/2 inch of accumulation from the WWA is supposed to be ice, snow, or combination of both? 1/2 inch of ice would be a nightmare!

-----------

It won't be ice as it will mostly be sleet changing to snow.  So, only a glazing in the areas that start as freezing rain.

Gary

Nice covering of sleet in Kingsville. Not sure how much-don't really want to go out and check! :)

Just snow here in North Kansas City. They don't appear to be clearing the street here. We moved here in October from Chicago area and I swear I'm back in Chicago.

heavy sleet in Harrisonville we probably have more sleet now then all the snow we've had this winter..lol

driveway and streets are snow covered, still snowing

I don't think a half inch of ice would only be a wwa, more a wsw! Heavy pure snow, not sure if it still is though, off and on heavy and light, saying an inch for tonight.

9 DEGREES ALREADY!!!!!!!!!

I forgot to ask, what is the average amount of snowfall for KC every year? We had 3-6" every 3 or so days near chicago and it never melted. Just wondering how it compares.

Artic Air seems to be shallow. We seem to always get sleet/freezing rain with this type of air mass. Maybe it is just a coincidence, but I'd rather have snow than this large sleet/rain mix I am getting.

Hello Gary and crew, first time blogger, I'm across 7 Hwy from Lake Lotawana, light snow pellets are faling (blowing), wind gusting to 20 mph and it's 11 degrees.  Brrrr.   I drive a school bus.   Not looking forward to tomorrow morning.    

10.8 degrees and falling steadily for a while in east Independence.  The precipitation is not so much snow right now as it is sleet.  

I love this wintry weather.  It was fun to walk around the yard for a bit getting hit in the face with some of what is falling....the cold feels nice too.  I'm thankful for a warm place to go back to though:)

I wonder if schools will start canceling due to the temps and slick roads.  I'm pretty close to 24 highway and I can already hear some cars spinning their tires.

DL

Thanks Gary!  

Like Bill in Lawrence, I vividly remember the artic outbreak here in Dec. 1989 - another channel's national morning show was broadcasting from the Plaza, if I remember right!  Their weatherperson said it was the coldest he'd been in his life!  I just had to drag my 7 yr. old granddaughter outside with me to feel the front come through this morning - poor kid!  : )

I can't beleive it was60 degrees less than 12 hrs. ago.

It started with heavy sleet around 6:30 'stopped for awhile, then started a light snow and quickly became heavy at 7:20.

Now moderate snow high wind,ground is getting covered,so are the streets ;)

What kind of accum. around Liberty and Gladstone (that is where Ipushsnow)

ATL*** 34 yrs. (old enough to know better,young enough to do it anyway)

snow blowing and coming down heavy at Weatherby Lake, started out as heavy sleet/hail, made alot of noise but no thunder or lightning here. what is the prediction for the early moring commute?? I actually have to be at work early tomorrow=figures.

I was surprised to look outside and see a dusting of white stuff on the ground. But then I got on the blog and saw that everyone was already in the know about it, of course! =)

Wow, now huge snow flakes falling here in drexel!! What a day!!

Lots of new bloggers this evening.

the reason i asked pepoles age is beacuse i was just wondering the age group in this blog i think it is prety cool what kshb has goin with this weather blog and i was just wondering the age of some of the pepole that paticipate in this blog and if any one is my age.

The snow has started flying but it is still mixed in with the sleet.  14 degrees in Strasburg, Cass county MO.

I know that there is a wide variety of age in here. I know we have some high schoolers in here too.

FlakeFan  where are you located?

FlakeFan - We're coming out of the woodwork : )  Or we already have cabin fever??  

I totally agree Farmgirl - gimme snow ANY day over the *other* stuff - and I promise not to say the *other* word on the blog either!  

Can't wait to see what else this week holds for us all!

Snow now in Greenwood.  11 degrees

We arived in KC Sept 1989 and were in the record cold.  If I remember right I think the wind chill got down to 65 below.  They don't usually close the schools in Lees Summit unless it snows overnight at least 2 inches and it sticks, which of course it would with these temps.  

is all snow here at 135th and state line rd in kcmo however have not seen any real heavy snow yet

♫ Chestnuts roasting on an open fire  ♪♫

wow- it is now 8.5deg.  here in independence!

Where can I get a at home weather station that has wind speed,temp,rain gage ect.?

119th & Ridgeview in Olathe, colder than a well digger's (!), with a light dusting, and a some lingering flurries.

I have a Davis Weather station...been very happy with it....has wind speed, temp, barometer, rain gage, etc...

heavy wind driven snow here in S. OP...13 degrees...starting to accumulate.

Man almighty....just drove from Fort Scott Kansas (Bourbon Co) to Pleasanton KS. Drove through a great light show with a mix of freezing rain, sleet and I believe grauple (spell)...I have never seen so much fall from the sky like that! It was a near white out at times and it was not even snow. It was awesome!!! Stay safe and warm everyone.
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

Ipushsnow,
try windandweather.com they have some really good ones. It where i got mine.

Report: freezing rain and mostly sleet here in Columbia.

mommaofthree: was it snowing while lighting and thundering? if so how long did it last. One of my advisors here at Mizzou, is very involved in research on thundersnow. would just like to see what you experience.

I was all excited this morning to learn about the potential snowstorm on Tues and know I feel like someone has punched me in the stomach.  Guess it is time to move North.

Jon

it seems to be done in Lees Summit,  Wondering though with the temps if the kids will have school?

Computer models act like they are trying to move warmer air in here on Tuesday with the next storm with the 540 thickness line north of KC.  Are the models not getting a good grip on the Arctic Air mass and also pushing the storm north as well?  

how often are the hazardous outlooks on spc site updated?  Anyone know?
Becky
Parkville

Hey Boootz,
I am no longer worried tonight about 1 late summer calf I just weaned after hearing about your newborns.  How do you fall ppl do it?!?  

OZ NAM keeps the snowstorm on Tuesday in Iowa....

Meso Outlooks from SPC are updated every 6hours for winter events.. and as needed for all others.. HWO's from the local offices are typically twice a day unless otherwise needed..

.3" of snow so far in trenton.. moderate snow falling..

Thundersnow in Sedalia!

snow seems to really be slowing down.... but these bitter temps are insane! The streets and my driveway arent even covered, and probably wont be.... We have that sleet and snow mix here... but i just really hope tuesday isnt a bust...

and im one of those high skoolers :D 15 here lol

So does it look like our chances of a good snow on Tuesday are pretty much gone, or is there still hope?

Warrensburg friend here...

Just got out of Reconcilliation Mass...  lightning looked like a blowing transformer from the corner of my eye!  Then, the sleet started pouring down like buckets as we drove around looking at the beautiful Christmas lights.  Would be absolutely breathtaking only if there were snow covering the ground!

Oh yeah!  Husband wasn't too impressed when the wheels started to spin as I was "trying" to drive into the garage.

Can't wait to see the snow!!!  I'm trying to wait patiently for those HUGE pillow-like flakes!!

Happy "Safe" Monday!

Half inch of snow and 8 degrees. Wind chill -13.

j in sedmo,

I miss my hometown...and hopefully the thundersnow makes it to Columbia

bellgolfMU12,
Well it was not snow...a mix of everything it seemed to me. The time we were driving out of town is all I could tell you...which was about 10 minutes. We saw lightening for a good 20 minutes of our trip back north when we looked behind us. The futher north we went the more snow flakes we would see mixed in. It was really neat and sooooo much was coming down we could hardly see to drive...and it was hard and loud, like sleet! Hope this helps.
Monica

Hey all! Just curious if anyone remembers what the windchill factor has to be before they start cancelling school, -10 or -15 below?  ...Not that that I am hoing for a mid-year freebie by any means;-) But, the natives have been restless for about two weeks now just hoping...

Snow/Sleet mix is over here.  Down to 6 degrees.  Think 8 degrees for low tonight was a little optimistic.  Have relatives in very NW Iowa and they are already -9!!!!  NWS keeps lowering their low, now at -12.  They are supposed to hit -5 for a high tomorrow.  We could hit 0 tonight at this rate.

Missed the lightning here in Liberty but a coating of sleet/snow mix.

1/2 inch in liberty snow is over

there is almost an inch of snow and sleet in harrisonville now...schools canceled tomorrow?

umm...oops, I meant to say "hoping" not "hoing"  :)P  Sorry!

 
Kcchamps said:
wow- it is now 8.5deg.  here in independence!

BRRRRRRRR!!!  Snowing over in my corner of town now.  

I believe the actual temps must be below zero to cancel school.

I think back in 89 schools were closed due to windchills but those were 30 to 40 below.

All Snow now, Strasburg MO.  If I had to guess I would say about a 1/2 inch of Sleet/snow.  13 degrees now.

Latest NAM puts the snow in NORTHERN IOWA.  Hope it changes like last week.

School cancellations depends on your distict, my area is Blue Valley I think.

7 DEGREES at JoCo Airport!

It is nice to read about all of you who had lightning. I thought I saw a flash (just one) earlier but I thought maybe I was just seeing things.

ATL, As stated above, there are many teens on this blog. Some have even blogged while in school. We also seem to have many teachers here (some have blogged while their students were taking tests). Maybe one of your teachers is a blogger, who knows, stranger things have happened.

And to answer your question, I am 43 years young.

Valentino, you live not far from me. I am closer to Missouri town.

I am sad about Tuesday.  What a bummer.  I am still awaiting a giant snow.  Or even just a big one at this rate.  What happened to winter precip in KS?  It seems we had a lot when I was a kid.  Now it is few and far between to get a good big snow

Agh!  We just lost cable TV at my house.  No lines down here...must be the cable company.

I am now at 12 degrees. That is a long ways away from 62 this morning. WOW What a day.  

Light snow ended in Ottawa - not much accumulation of anything at this point.

Hey "Ipushsnow," I love that "34" comment - never heard it put better! Would love to be there again, only smarter. At my age, options are limited, so it doesn't matter whether you know better or not... HA!
Good night, everyone, and be careful driving to work tomorrow.

It is 10 degrees at the Lee's Summit airport. With a wind chill of -5 degrees.

3/4 of an inch of snow/sleet here in drexel

For those of you who've asked, the record low in K.C. was -23 in December of 1989.  As I recall the high that day was something like -6 (and those aren't wind chills.)  There was a lot of snow on the ground.  Cars were stalled all over K.C. and batteries were almost impossible to find.  

Also, someone asked about a good weather station.  I've had a Davis now for 10 years and it's been a winner.  There are cheaper ones out there but they don't last as long it seems.

Gary:

Good do I say brutally cold evening to you sir!! Wound up with about ½ an inch of frozen stuff on the ground this evening-came pretty close in 30 minutes equaling what we got in the whole day on Tuesday!! LOL

That was quite the vigorous band of precipitation that just blew through-thunder/lightening, heavy sleet/snow. Why do I get the feeling this band really got its act together right over us and is going to form into a pretty nice band of frozen precipitation for folks to our East and North East. Looking around the Internet several NWS offices are watching this band very closely to see how it evolves over the next few hours. We were kind of the breeding ground eh??

I am going to think out loud once again which is a very dangerous proposition but something just doesn’t seem right to my 5 cent hobbyist mind with the models right now.
1. The 0z NAM continues its 18Z trend of taking the bulk of Tuesday’s precipitation well north of the area as in central Nebraska North. My guess is that the 0z GFS will do the same thing.
2. Looking at this run, I think that the lift Tuesday is being provided by small bit of vorticity at the 700 MB level which according to the NAM tracks NW of Topeka into far southern Iowa. There is not much support at the 500 level nor is there much at the surface nor is there really a strong 850 low-yet, there is still a pretty good swath of precipitation. The first question I think is if the NAM is not over doing the precipitation amounts.  
3. By Tuesday morning there is a surface high pressure at 1039MB sitting over northern Iowa that the NAM drifts off to about Western Ohio by Tuesday afternoon. I think the second question is will this High actually drift that far to the East-if it doesn’t and it stays to more over Iowa it may help keep things a bit further south.
4. According to this run of the NAM our surface temperature never rises above 25 degrees on Tuesday-the cold air is locked into place and even as far south as Springfield is in the upper 20’s according to this run. I honestly can’t remember a storms main focus going North of us with that kind of cold air locked into place. There really isn’t even all that much warming over us with WAA at the 850 level. If anything, we should have began to see the focus shift south of where the 0Z NAM had it last night over say Wichita to Springfield. Something just seems off with these model solutions.

There is no doubt that my ramblings the past 2 days about model initiation etc. seem like at worst sour grapes or at best grasping at some serious straws and more than that everyone knows on this blog how much I am obsessed with snow storms. However, I am really just trying to learn and figure some things out. I just can’t for the life of me see why the main focus of the precipitation Tuesday would be to our North- it should if anything be focused to our south.

Sorry for the thinking out loud-I do hope though that this makes some bit of sense and that I have not come off like I am totally off my rocker!! LOL I still have not given up on Tuesday even with this North trend smacking me in the forehead. If by 0z tomorrow night we are still seeing the same solutions well maybe I will finally throw in the towel. I just really think that something is off kilter right now with the models solutions.

Have a great night and as always thanks for reading and providing such a great place to discuss and learn about the weather!!

Bill towel is still firmly in pocket but grasping at straws in Lawrence

--------------

Bill,

The jet stream is just north of us with that southern branch. We need a realignment and then Tuesday could turn into something.  Let's see how the models look on Monday.

Today was a very dramatic weather day anyway.  It doesn't take too much to make us winter weather nuts happy. 

Gary

Sleeting in Sedalia, with very slick roads.

We just experienced the cold front here in St. Louis. At 9:00, the temperature was 61°, but at 9:15, it was 39°, that's quite a drop! Pretty neat!

David

"JoeKC said:
For those of you who've asked, the record low in K.C. was -23 in December of 1989"

I remember that!  I had a little 1988 Nissan Sentra, the first new car I ever bought, and I was so proud of it when it started that morning, LOL!

Hey "JoeKC"...I agree>>>Davis is the way to go...quality weather station at a reasonable price...

I will forever remember that snowstorm in Dec. 89.  My daughter was born on the 18th, she will be 19 next week.  When we took her home we discovered no power or gas.  It was mighty cold!    

Gary:

No doubt-today was just incredible/exciting/awesome that it really doesn't matter what happens the rest of this week!! Following that front this morning-priceless!!

In the end, Lawrence had such a terriffic run last winter with two 5 plus inch snow events and thunder snow that I really can't complain about this winter in any way shape or form.  But like my two boys wanting (not getting!!!) every Wii game they see,  the snow lover in me wants it all-I want the big once in 50 year dump LOL!!!!

Thanks so much for taking the time to answer my question-I know you guys have to be pretty busy tonight with the precip. bands moving through. It will be interesting to see what the models have for tomorrow and then begin to watch the radar and satelite tomorrow night-who knows what random/imaginary items I can conjure up on the satelite imagery LOL!!

Have a gret night-going to be some cold final exams tomorrow morning!!

Bill in Lawrence

Long winded just like the pre arctic front- haha
Update from Springdale KS- near Leavenworth.  It started out as flurries, then  downburst of just plain heavy snow that lasted nearly 30 to 45 minutes, no sleet, no rain.   Just good old snow with very low visability at times.  We have atleast 1/2 inch on the ground with a few left over flurries.  This really got me amped for Tuesday.  Now I hear the models are shifting this stuff north.   Im not giving up until I have to.  
I really hope to see a good one Tuesday and what I like about this, the cold air will be around awhle, which means............white for awhile!  Lets hope the models are just a bit out of whack right now.   I am sure we will see some some snow even if it does go north.  Probably more than a dusting too!   So don't lose all hope.  - I really am trying not too.  It is hard!   So much fun to just sit and watch!!  Lets all do a snow dance and have the entire viewing area receive a nice amount of snow Tuesday and Tuesday night.
  In regards to the question I read on here, how often does the NWS udpate their watch and advisory information, I cant find it now.  But earlier today I saw an article about that.  It is updated every few minutes.   In fact It wouldn' suprise me a bit to see a winter storm watch and or winter storm warning issued for Tuesdays storm as early as tomorrow A.M.    
 Good luck on Tuesday everyone in KC and 200 mile radius , I noticed the snow chanced drooped

Does anyone else find the increased radar echoes to the southwest interesting and encouraging for later tonight? Maybe if it can continue to increase in coverage we could squeak out another 1/2" or so. I had forecasted 1" - 1.5" on Friday morning for so I'm still hoping to hit my forecast. Everything seems consistent on everything being farther north on Tuesday but it seems to me with the cold surge that it would influence the jet stream to some degree in favor of moving systems to the south.

*doing the snow dance*

Why is it that all the "good" snowy stuff seems to shift to the north...What about us in Kansas?  I am more and more disappointed in the changes of forecast.  Yesterday I was celebrating a possible 3-6 on Tuesday and now my dreams seem to be withering away once again.  I LOVE the unpredictability of weather but I am ready for some snow!

HELP!  

Bill,

The jet stream is just north of us with that southern branch. We need a realignment and then Tuesday could turn into something.  Let's see how the models look on Monday.


That sounds easy enough and doable right???
We just have to have this storm Tuesday, I have been counting on it for too long, a whole week seems like a half year when your excited!  I know there will be more.  But more means more waiting, haha.

Staley Joe said:
Hey "JoeKC"...I agree>>>Davis is the way to go...quality weather station at a reasonable price...
December 14, 2008 9:29 PM

My only problem is moving to a neighborhood that doesn't allow outside "attachments" to the roof, so I've had to retire my wind assembly.  I wonder what Gary does if he lives in such a neighborhood?  I'd hate to be a forecaster of his stature and not be able to have a complete weather station at home.  My homeowner's association is very crabby.

0Z GFS continuing the trend of taking the Tuesday snow storm into Iowa...

latest 0Z NAM is giving us trace amounts to maybe an inch on Tuesday...

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX

Like I said earlier...the computer models are having a problem with the arctic air.  


I think we will see a different forecast for Tuesday than what the models keep showing

Harking back to schools closing due to low temps, I know we had a "cold" day when I was in elementary school, maybe 2001 or so. That's the last time I remember getting out purely for cold. I think the actual temperature was -5 or so.

Have about 1/2 inch sleet on the ground north of La Cygne.

And a light snow/sleet mix still coming down.

I hate to crush the snow lovers dreams, but tuesday is a wash out. we are just not located in the right spot this winter.
GARY_ you have it colder next weekend... is there  a reinforcing artic front next weekend?

If you guys go by the 0Z GFS data, you are really going to have to bump up the high temperatures for Thursday.

If im reading it right, temps could rise into the 50's Thursday.

Hardly a prolonged arctic outbreak...

I hope im reading this wrong...lol

This is very depressing.

:(

OMG!  We have a 1/4 inch of snow on the ground near Liberty!!!

Seriously, it's cold, it's windy, it's nearly winter.  I see nothing exciting about what has happened today, aside from we started mild and finished cold.  It's really not unusual or even very interesting.

Yep, Adam I was reading the same thing I hope not but maybe the models are having a tuff time detecting the arctic air already in place.

Adam, you just made me smile and gave me hope that it will warm up!! I hope you are right about the warm up - less chores for me when the weather is above 35 degrees!

singing the no snow blues...we are going to miss everything this year aren't we.
This is depressing all you fellow snow mourners.

Here in Jefferson County right now it is 6.4 degrees with a 17.7 mph wind gusting to 25.6, we only received a dusting, even less than the last storm.

One more thing, we had only one road problem at the intersection of K-4 and K-92 on the west side of Perry Lake.  Sorry to hear you all had so many problems.

It's 11 degrees and freezing in my house.  I had the heat off this morning and the back door open for a bit and now my heater can't catch up with this cold.  I am going to go snuggle under my warm blankets and get ready to watch 41 news.

It seems a bit early to start saying that the storms will miss us this season. Keep the faith, it's not even officially winter yet!

The wind is howling around the eves here at the house here in Lee's Summit

THE GFS HAS US IN THE 50s now on thursday!!

DANG THE COWBOYS WON BOOOOO

I am keeping my fingers crossed tight that Tuesday plays out for a  big snow.  Gonna do a snow dance.

Bring on the Christmas forcast if it means snow!

Yes!! Please announce the Christmas forcast tonight. I hope we have a white Christmas!!

Forecast for Christmas?  Only if it includes snow?

Yes Gary I want to see the Christmas forecast tonight on the second half of the news. Thank you!

I would love to know what the weather will be like for Santa's trip around the world?? :o) Make it a white one please!!!
Monica
Pleasanton

You made me climb out of my warm little cocoon. LOL  

Warm...but white??? yea I know not gonna happen.. but at least warmer than today.... and fluffy white stuff all over the ground????

KC will never see temperatures as cold as 89 ever again. KCI was in a much more rural setting then, and now they have major industries as well as power plants. If you examine the historical data St. Joseph in the river valley has always been quite a bit cooler for lows compared with KCI.

Hate to tell you CentralOP2 but the power plants and industries in Kansas City date back a lot further than 1989.  Also too, several steel and auto plants have closed here since 1989.  I don't think you can use those as to why KC won't get that cold again.  A river valley is always colder than flat land.  Keep in mind KCI was in existence long before 1989 also.

Its now down to 27 here in St. Louis, still raining! Starting to get a glaze of ice on everything.

David

(Near N. Oak & Barry Rd. / Kansas City, MO 64155)

Total so far this snow season: 2.35"

4 2008 DEC 14 0.5" 2.35" / Measured in 3 spots, averaged.
3 2008 DEC 9 0.75" 1.85" / Measured in 5 spots, averaged.
2 2008 DEC 3 0.1" 1.1" / Dusting
1 2008 NOV 29/30 1.0" 1.0" / Measured on elevated surface.

Total last year at this time: 5.5" (+3.15" over this snow season to this date)

"Hate to tell you CentralOP2 but the power plants and industries in Kansas City date back a lot further than 1989.  Also too, several steel and auto plants have closed here since 1989.  I don't think you can use those as to why KC won't get that cold again.  A river valley is always colder than flat land.  Keep in mind KCI was in existence long before 1989 also."

KCI is now more of an urban heat island compared with 20 years ago, and also only one power plant unit was upstream the weather station then. Now we have another unit going in which makes two units. Also, average global temperatures have been on the increase so extremely cold outbreaks are becoming ever more rare with time. I will strongly stand by my statement that KCI will NEVER get below -20F ever again.

when does the next model run come out?

A shout out to Jeremy's hometown of Windom, MN with a current wind chill there of near -40F wih an air temp close to -10F. That is MIDWEST COLD for you. I predict lows up in the Brainerd Lakes region of MN up to the Northwoods will be lower than -30F this week with pockets of -40+ lows possible around Cook, Tower, and Embarass.

I don't think Kansas City will get to -20F again either... and even us having good "old fashion" average snowfall winters is something that is of the past as well.


What happend after 1988 that has cycled us into a lack of snowfall?


Look at the past 30 years:

Between the winter of 78/79 and 87/88, 7 of the 10 winters had at least 2.5"  above average (20.1") snowfall. Since then, only 3 winters (including the rare winter we had last year) have more than 2.5" above the normal snowfall. 8 of the last 20 winters have had less than 13" of annual snowfall (which is ~7.1" or greater below normal snowfall).


2007/08 24.1"
2006/07 10.2"
2005/06 13.4"
2004/05 13.3"
2003/04 20.2"
2002/03 9.4"
2001/02 8.6"
2000/01 22.8"
1999/00 12.9"
1998/99 12.9"
1997/98 19.6"
1996/97 29.2"
1995/96 19.1"
1994/95 6.9"
1993/94 18.0"
1992/93 34.3"
1991/92 10.1"
1990/91 16.6"
1989/90 19.5"
1988/89 6.9"
1987/88 26.3"
1986/87 17.3"
1985/86 13.4"
1984/85 26.4"
1983/84 24.4"
1982/83 23.4"
1981/82 29.4"
1980/81 10.2"
1979/80 23.5"
1978/79 33.4"

Gary-

I just looked at the 0z NAM precip models. I know that it shows the snow forming in central KS then heading up into N. Iowa, but I just don't feel that. The flow is just too far south for that and it just seems a little anomalous for that batch of snow to track that far north. Maybe it's just me, but I would rather rely on instinct than the model.

I'm having trouble remembering a set-up that took a system to our north like this immediately after a significant event in the beginning of this LRC cycle. Maybe it's just slipped my mind?

-Adam Smith

Looks like the NAM is starting to show signs of moving the precip south.  Its about 100miles further south then last 2runs.

i would really like a snow storm please

******************

How about a 1" snowstorm?

Jeremy

So much for the snow


http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif

Everyone needs to remember it is still 24+hrs away.  Things will always change.  Just look at last week.

By the way KansasPatriot, the graphic you posted is for the 00z and the 12z model runs, the run that just came out is the 06z.  That is 6hrs old.

Hey everyone, please drive safely this morning. The roads are bound to be slippery. I would hate to loose any of our bloggers!
Audra

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The main roads are in excellent shape this morning.  No problems for anyone driving in that I work with.  Side roads may have some icy spots.  And watch out on the sidewalks.

Jeremy