NBC Action Communities

I am calin in sick wih an "I" problem, "I" don't see myself going out in this weather......lol

How do those reporters do it, standing out in that fridged weather to tell us how cold it is outside.
Roads look pretty clear up in the Northern part of Leavenworth and most of the little snow we got has now blown to Oklahoma.
I had to give up and go to bed before we got the the second part of your forecast last night, did we do the Christmas forecast?

And this Thursday my son flies in from Arizona, do you think this could be a major ice event or no?

Thanks for all each of you do to keep us well informed.

Boootz

My poor heater can't keep up with the cold! That is with lots of insulation in the attic and multi paned windows!
Audra

Gary:

Good very cold morning to you sir!! Currently sitting at 4 degrees here in SW Lawrence this morning-just a little breeze but man that little breeze will get your attention when it hits your face!! The moon is glistening on the little bit of snow/sleet we have and there is enough to crunch under your shoes-awesome!! Very crisp and clean air out there there this morning!!

A few more random observations this morning-I know-here we go again LOL!!

1. Looking at the 11Z surface charts it appears the front is currently draped from Southern Texas up through NW Mississippi into Western Kentucky to western Ohio. It did make it pretty far south but that SE ridge did a number on it heading east.

2. There is some lite snow still in Oklahoma and the one thing I noticed is that the storm for Tuesday still seems to be off shore and has dug pretty far south as LA is getting some rain this morning-i can't remember how far the models dug this thing out west-I think it maybe have dug a bit further south than what the models showed.

3. Number 2 aside looking at the 0z GFS and 6Z GFS I think it is still showing the main jet just to our North-I was looking at the 300 MB level and I think that is what it is showing(as always, think is the operative word here LOL)-thus, the 700 vort. which is providing the lift is still heading NW of our area thus taking the main precip. band with it.

4. It sure does not look real good for Tuesday but I am stubborn as a mule and am still holding out hope that the 12Z and the 0Z runs later have a bit of a change-that they are missing something-doubtful but I will grasp at what ever straw I can LOL!! As far as Thursday goes: I think we have to get through Tuesday and see what this Tuesday wave winds up doing-it may act as some kind of blocker or maybe even help hold the cold air in place a bit better. I just don't think Thursday will come into focus until about Wednesday.

5. Last point: there was some discussion about Kansas City never seeing temps. like we did in 1989-I just have to chime in here on this. I have no doubt that I will never see those temps. again nor will my boys. That was was a once in 100-200 year event that this area had never seen since Europeans began setteling and I doubt this area had seen in 200-300 years. But to say never I think is speaking in too much hyperbolie. We really have very little clue what the climate is going to do as there are so many factors that we don't yet understand. This is not a stab at ending fossil fuel use or having much better urban planning at all as I am all for that (for different reasons than Global Warming) but we really don't fully understand how all the mechanisims of our climate work and interact. As far as snow goes-we have had some blockbuster winters since 1989: 1992-93; 1995-96; 200-2001; 2003-2004; 2006-2007 and last year. Granted the last two years has split the metro area but we have had good snow years. We had some abysimal winters before 1989 as well-1972-73 we had one inch of snow; several winters in the 1950's were horrible for snow; the 1930's weren't very good either and for me the big one is that in 1841-42 we only had one frost the entire winter let alone any snow. Sorry for the rant but I just wanted to point out that we have had many bad snow winters before the 1980's and to say never when discussing weather is a bit spurious. The heat island does play a role for sure but it didn't help much here this morning and with a core of cold air like in 1989 it wouldn't either. It still managed to get to 80 below in Siberia last week!!!

Ok-I'm done-if this is off the mark or too ranty please delete but that is just something I wanted to throw out there. Have a great day and as always thanks for reading-i am still holding out hope for Tuesday and this week as misguided as that may be!!!

Bill towel still in pocket in Lawrence

A cold lonley single degree!

1 Degree with windchill of -22!

Well so much for my eldest daughters statement that if it is in the double negitive numbers, including with wind chill, that there would be no school. No phone calls yet saying stay home. My youngest is kind of bummed.
Audra in Lee's Summit

-------------

Audra,

They shouldn't cancel school today as there are likely colder mornings with storm systems ahead of us.  If they cancel on a day like this then they would end up cancelling two weeks worth of days which they just can't quite do without extending school into June.

Gary

Yup its cold Gary, 1.4 degrees here in McLouth with an 11.4mph wind gusting to 16.7

So here we sit, no frozen water pipes luckily just waiting for tomorrows snow.

Well Acording to my wife I have offically reached the status of Weather Geek. I sat out on the back deck yesterday morning and experienced the passage of the cold front..................it was amazing. My kids were out playing on the swing set when the front came through and 10 minutes latter the were freezing. unbelievable.

Offically call me a proud weather geek

3.8 here in SE Lee's Summit.  COLD!

So is there even still a chance that this could be a snowstorm for us?  I am on K hwy between 45 hwy and 152.
Becky
Parkville

--------------

Becky,

Yes there is a chance, but as you can see below it is most likely going north.  Let's see what the new data shows.

Gary

well at least there is small hope for a snow day for me! lol Thanks Gary! =)
Becky
Parkville

When will you have the new data?  4 here at 1-35 and 87th. Wow what a day yesterday. That was truly amazing. I am with you madnick, I was outside as well and it was so amazing to feel that come through all i can say is wow. Sleet fell hard last night almost sounded like hail in Belton. Can't waint for the new data thanks Gary.

Madnick, count me in as an official weather geek too.  I got out yesterday morning while it was nice and cleaned out my car, cleaned out the garage, etc.  It was amazing that one minute I was sweating and then the next I was freezing.  It truly was neat to witness the cold front move in.

I thought it WAS hailing in Harrisonville last night kane, it was so loud!

Bill:

I was also remembering December 1989, we lived in Topeka at the time, 23 below actual air temps, I believe that the wind chills were running around -50 to -60 and snow on the ground the week before Christmas, school was cancelled 3 or 4 days before Christmas break.  

Gary: I was wondering if there were some similarities in the 1989 long wave set ups and those that are occurring now.

Thanks,
Pam

We are flying out to warm sunny Florida on Thursday. :) If we do get ice are we talking a morning event or later in the day?  We leave at 7am.

Ok I do not know my highways....where is highway 36?

Does the wild temperature swing yesterday break a record or come close to breaking a record?

bewild79...

Highway 36 run east/west through the middle of St Joe

thanks homemom....I really wish it was further south though lol.  Maybe this thing will move more to the south for more snow!  I was really wanting a snow day to stay at home with the kids and make gingerbread houses! lol.  What is that that everyone does...."the snow dance"? START DOING IT EVERYONE!!! LOL
Becky
Parkville

What does your cycling theory hold for Christmas?  Since I know you all rip on the models as being less accurate than your theory, so I'm curious what temps will be like for Christmas and New Year's via your theory.  

How about precip chances?  What are the chances of a storm or at least a white Christmas, according to your theory?

I sat out on my deck yesterday waiting for the front to roll through!  What an experience!  I for one am just hoping that we don't get so much snow/bad weather this week so my daughter can get through finals in High School.  As much as she'd love a snow day, she would be bummed if they had to start their holiday a day or two later to make up finals.  Next week- it can snow all it wants!!  Stay warm everyone!  Dea

Gary,
My son witnessed an interesting weather event around 9:00 p.m. Sunday. He even called me to see what I thought. I told him I would blog you today so here goes.
At first he saw small   " snow explosions " on the highway. Like small snow balls hitting the road. Then 2 about golfball size balls hit his windshield. It was only snowing lightly and there was no accumulation on trees to fall off.  Any ideas??

Elaine in McLouth

I agree bewild, we need more white stuff further south!

madnick I am right there with you on being a weather geek. I was on track to go to MU to study meteorology when I was in college then life things happened and that changed a little. Well I never got there but I still have always been crazy interested with the weather and yesterday was no exception. That was the craziest most amazing thing I have seen in a while. My husband laughed at me all day yesterday because we were out shopping and I was constantly on my blackberry tracking the crazy drop in temperatures. We should all be proud to be weather geeks, weather is a fascinating thing!  

I am excited to see what this week brings!

Notes, just a "couple more weeks" and they'll know more.  Heh.  My prediction for both days is 40 and mostly sunny with no White Christmas.

********************

You guys should watch our newcasts more often.  Gary showed a graphic last night with a forecast high and precipitation chances for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. 

And by the way...in a couple more weeks much more will be known.  This is only the 2nd time through the cyle.   

Jeremy

Right there with ya Madnick.  Stay warm everyone.

Weatherfreak01, are you running a heat pump? I have one and it hasn't shut off all night. Probably will run all day today too. I had it inspected Thursday to make sure it was working properly. Everything checked out good. The serviceman said since I have tall ceilings and lots of big windows that it takes a lot more to heat and cool the home. But I do need a couple of new windows on the West side. Looking at windows companies this week.

I just hope it warms up again. I really don't like this bitter cold. I accidently spilled water on my glove this morning while doing chores and it stuck to the stall door! Reminded me of the little boy who stuck his tongue on the flagpole in Christmas Story.

Gary is mentioned in the KC Star article about this winter being colder and wetter than normal: http://www.kansascity.com/news/local/story/937247.html

All I know is that even if we only get a dusting of snow in KC, that's still enough to cause a nightmare on the roads.  It only takes a few moron drivers to freak out on the highways and cause problems for everyone.

Thankfully I haven't heard anyone say, "Is it cold enough for you?" this morning, or I might have to punch them. =) As I was pumping gas this morning I started to get a brain freeze headache just from being out in that air. Brrrrrr! I hope we get some snow to at least make these cold temps worthwhile.

Yikes-once again I'm in the "no snow" forecast area. GRRR! Hopefully this changes....I'd hate to think we go two years in a row with less then a foot of snow during the season.  

Anyone here know what the 12Z model runs trended towards?

Jeremy, could you post the graphics Gary showed last night for the Chritmas forcast?  We get up too early to watch the 10 O'clock news.  I even tried last night but it was on later I think because of football and I fell asleep.  
---Up with the rooster in Sibley (aka Audrey)

12Z NAM still taking the snowstorm into Iowa tomorrow..

******************

Pretty confident that there will still be light snow for KC with some accumulation.  Right now around 1", but wouldn't be surprised to see 2" in spots.  Still looks like possibly 2-4" north of highway 36.

The snow should begin by morning rush time.  And anything that falls will stick.  In other words, could get slippery.

Jeremy

It does appear however, the 12Z GFS has trended ever so slightly to the south.

The northern side of the metro would be on the fringe here...

Thanks Adam

OK, so what was Gary's forecast for Christmas?  I admit I went to bed before he came on--long weekend, sorry!

So what was Gary's Christmas forecast?

********************

He'll show it again this evening, or ask him when he comes back in the blog later this morning.

Jeremy

yes, let's hope the GFS keeps pushing south the next couple model runs...a bit of hope anyway.

Jeremy,

If the trend continues, your forecast high of 34 on Thursday may be too conservative.

That warm air really looks to surge in here according to the GFS. Maybe just a cold rain for most of the metro??

Could it really get that warm??

Wow...

*******************

I think I changed it to 36 or 37.  But it could easily be in the 40s...maybe warmer if the GFS is correct.  The numerical GFS was way off this morning for today.  The 6Z run had something like 25 for a high today.  It may struggle to reach 10.  The models have a hard time with airmasses this far below climatological norms.  Either way though I don't expect the Thursday storm to completely change course and be an all snow maker.  Milder air should return Thursday in some degree.

Jeremy

Is there any snow at all here in the metro? Just curious for work. Thanks

********************

I answered that question below.

Jeremy

Good midmorning to you Jeremy and everybody!! In the middle of proctering a final (I get to give mine tomorow!!) so decided instead of working on other things to look at the weather-shocker huh!!!

Looking at the 12Z NAM and GFS there does appear to be a sublte very subtle shift the south. I think in addition to the prcip. shield being a little further south that looking at the 300 winds that the jet is a bit further south as well as the 700 vort. Maybe just maybe this is the beginnig of a turn-and maybe I am just trying to see things that aren't there (or maybe I have no idea what I am looking at!!)!!!! LOL Also, the NAM has much more vigorous strom than does the GFS I think.

Will be interesting and fun to track this-by tonight one can start to follow radar trends and the satelite!! Where will it go-will the 0z runs help us out?? Regarding Thursday-I think this next wave has to move by and see what it does-if (a big if) it does something different than what the models show now, then Thursday will be a different in some fashion from what we see right now.

Have a great afternoon everybody and the entire Weather Team-yea-I am still holding out some wierd hope for tomorrow that it may just be a bit bigger event as I am like my 2 boys in a Wii store when it comes to snow-but in the end, snow is snow is snow and I will take what ever Mother Nature wants to give and say thankyou very much!!

Bill in Lawrence

*********************

Bill,

Thanks for stopping by with the thoughts.  The models did trend a little snowier with the 12Z runs.  But at the same time the GFS was much warmer in the Thursday timeframe. 

Jeremy

Bill in Lawrence said:

We really have very little clue what the climate is going to do as there are so many factors that we don't yet understand. This is not a stab at ending fossil fuel use or having much better urban planning at all as I am all for that (for different reasons than Global Warming) but we really don't fully understand how all the mechanisims of our climate work and interact. As far as snow goes-we have had some blockbuster winters since 1989: 1992-93; 1995-96; 200-2001; 2003-2004; 2006-2007 and last year. Granted the last two years has split the metro area but we have had good snow years. We had some abysimal winters before 1989 as well-1972-73 we had one inch of snow; several winters in the 1950's were horrible for snow; the 1930's weren't very good either and for me the big one is that in 1841-42 we only had one frost the entire winter let alone any snow. Sorry for the rant but I just wanted to point out that we have had many bad snow winters before the 1980's and to say never when discussing weather is a bit spurious.

Agreed - well said by Bill!

Notes -

Gotta say, this comment of yours made me laugh!  "...you all rip on the models as being less accurate than your theory "

LRC or not, it doesn't take much to see how much the models continue to shift run to run.  'Tis the season.  Take this last front for example...shall we discuss the GFS's fabulous ability to initialize shallow air masses?

It is well documented and understood that each model has its own biases, and certainly with the activity lately with the pattern, models are going to struggle.  

I remember you asking about a week back about Gary's "Arctic Watch" or whatever it was called.  More and more has been documented this year about prognostications using the LRC.  Looking out the window today and observing yesterday, I kinda feel the LRC was quite useful in issuing the statement of an upcoming Artic blast.

Also stated several weeks ago was that we anticipated the back end of this LRC pattern to be quite active.  Gary has detailed the roller coaster above.  This upcoming week doesn't look tame either.  We have provided a great deal of content this year regarding the LRC here as well as lrcweather.com.  Hope you have an opportunity to check it out.

So, all said, I believe the LRC has been a great advantage this year so far.  I wouldn't think twice taking the LRC over the GFS at 384 hrs.

Thanks Jeremy! I didn't see it. So no snow until atleast 5:00 am or so?

Watch, there will be band of snow that will develop right over us, just like it did last week!!

(Jeremy, this is for Gary )
I hope it will be posted and let him be the one to respond.

GARY,
It looks like the "other" stations "might" have been right when they talked, last week, about a possibilty of freezing rain or an ice set-up coming this Thursday.

On Thursday, December 11 8:15 AM
You said:
"There has been, unfortunately, talk of ice and stuff from other stations"...
I commented on the fact that you were berating the other stations, and then you said, "I must have been tired. It isn't even worth mentioning."

Now, today Mon, Dec 15 5:20 A.M.
you said:

"After this chance goes by there is another storm on Thursday that could bring some freezing rain or sleet to the region.
Another Arctic blast is due in this weekend and there will likely be a storm Christmas week."

I find it odd that you would berate "other" stations last week for mentioning a possibilty of ice coming up. Yet, here you are, today, predicting the same.

And, as far as "other" stations prediciting too far out, aren't you doing the same today by saying "there will likely be a storm Christmas week."?

Isn't this "too far out"?

Are you being a bit hypocritical?

As I said before, I don't watch other stations, because NBC Action Weather team IS the most accurate, and is by far the most personable.

---------------------

First of all Jeremy has been keeping up with the comments.  I only had three hours of sleep last night, so I just took a 1/2 hour nap and now I am on my way into work.

Anyway, there isn't an ice storm in the forecast, although we have to watch this set-up for Thursday closely.  There may be a little freezing drizzle, and Thursday's storm is looking like it could warm above freezing, possibly well above freezing, but I am not convinced of it yet.  I stand by my statement. And, last year when we started making the long range forecasts based on the LRC predicting, accurately, storm systems weeks and months out is different than saying there could be an ice storm when it is more than a week away.

I think you will agree with me on this?

Gary

Ethalo-Last week the other station was discussing a possible ice storm for Tuesday not for Thursday.

*******************

I believe they were talking about an ice storm for Monday(today).  Some of the people in our newsroom that chat with people at the other stations then came back and asked us(Gary & me) about this coming ice storm.  We said we do not see anything like that.  Forecasting ice storms is very difficult, let alone telling viewers one is coming 5-7 days out.

Jeremy 

ethalo,

This team has the LRC, the other stations don't!! They can make accurate 40-45 days predictions!

I watched the mid-day forecast and you are predicting somewhere around 1-2 inches for the metro area, but it looked like on the precip to snow for close to 6-7 hours... how could we only get 1-2 inches?!? I just really want snow thats the only reason I'm bummed lol but it really doesnt make much sense to me.

Phillip

************************

The wave moving by should bring a 'nice snow'.  Not a ton of wind and the snow will be light and fluffy.  The duration could be several hours or more, but totals around the metro will probably stay around 1" or maybe 2".

Jeremy

What year did the official measuring location move to KCI? Was it at the downtown airport before then?

Thanks

With this LRC pattern, should we be worried about a drought setting up for this next Spring/Summer? KCI was .77" below normal for November, and so far .61" below normal for December.

Or when the jet stream lifts back up north this Spring, will we have more rainfall coming in ala October?

KCI: +0.68" OCT, -0.77 NOV, -0.61" DEC*
St. Joe: +0.40" OCT, -0.97" NOV, -0.71" DEC*
JoCo Exec: -1.60" OCT, -1.42" NOV, -0.54" DEC*
Sedalia: -2.49" OCT, -2.67" NOV, -0.65" DEC*
Kirksville: -0.98" OCT, +0.26" NOV, -0.50" DEC*

Admitted, the lack of precip is probably welcome for parts of the region that saw tremendous amounts last

Thanks for the suggestion farmgirl. I think my heater went poof. I have a call into the home warrenty people. The temp in the house is 9 degrees below what it is set at and falling. Burr!
Audra

So when the next models come out we would be able to see if there is a more southerly trend to this storm,  Gary, Jeremy, do you think that might be the trend (maybe lol)
Becky
Parkville

pmccabe58 - it snowed 6-7 hours with last weeks snow, and most of the metro (with exception of the southern tip) only got at most an inch :-)

A 6-7 hour period of heavy snow will pile up - but if it's light snow or flurries, good luck on getting much of anything out of it. Even with cold ground temperatures.

I am going to have to say I don't think this storm on Tuesday is going to give Kansas City North much anything at all - maybe an isolated 1/2" of snow on top of what we have out there from Sunday night if we're lucky.

I think the models are going to start to bring it farther South, just like last week!! Boy, can't believe KCI is below average for precip. it just doesn't seem possible!

UPDATE! lol

Ok I live a half block north of 36 in west of 22nd Street in St Joseph. According to NWS I get 3-6 and the other half of the City gets less.  I know they need to draw a line someplace but to cut a city of 76,000 people in half with the line seems odd.  Saying, "on a line north of Leavenworth to Kingston to Kirksville" would be more logical or say it will taper to lessers amouts from 4-6 inches in Rockport, Maryville to 2-3 inches near St Joe, Savannah, Cameron, Chilli, etc would be a more accurate depicition.    

The latest GFS has the snow  all the way down to the KS, OK border. The snow is trending south!!!

Andrew I agree with what you are stating 70 miles south puts the 5-6 SN over me and KC  in 3-5.   I was saying the same thing yesterday that is what happened last week a 70-80 mile drop to the south.

sherman i hope you are right

Stjoe where do you find that? Thanks!

F00dl3,

"I am going to have to say I don't think this storm on Tuesday is going to give Kansas City North much anything at all - maybe an isolated 1/2" of snow on top of what we have out there from Sunday night if we're lucky."

What is making you lean this direction?

The 12Z runs today were trending a little further south.

Also, with temps in the single digits to low teens with this event is ongoing, the snow ratio will likely be 15:1, possibly even 20:1.

Lets just say we got .20 inches of moisture.

15:1 = 3 inches

20:1 = 4 inches

Lets just say, its not over yet....


Around 24 hours out with our last snow event, the weather team was calling for around a half inch in Lee's Summit. Then 12 hours out, it was 1-3 inches.

I ended up with just under 4 inches at my house here in Lee's Summit.


Lets keep watching...


:)

The new GFS does show precipitation in the form of snow for our area.  I'm keeping my fingers crossed:)

DL

What did the latest NAM say?  I read that sherman said the GFS went further south but was curious about the NAM.  The NAM initially had us getting more precip than the GFS....back and forth the models go :)

Sorry to bother you with this question. I know you can't give personal forecasts for everyone. My wife is driving to the lake Tuesday afternoon to pick up her 89 year old mom to have open heart surgery in Jeff City on Wednesday morning. Usually I'm not too worried about her driving in the weather (we have AWD) but the combination of bad weather and her mind being distracted gives me pause.
I told her she may need to leave earlier to beat the storm. Is that right?  I don't want to freak her out and give her something else to worry about.

-------------------

Wednesday is in between the two storm systems.  It looks mostly dry, but we have to look at it day by day.

Gary

Adam what are your thoughts with the new data?

Adam and Andrew I hope both of you are right! Here on Wornall we got somewhere around 4 inches with the last storm and they said maybe an inch. This pattern would be so hard to predict, so lets just sit back and prey for feet of snow :) im gonna keep my fingers crossed too

I was looking at NWS and we have a Winter Storm Watch to the north of us and a Winter Weather Advisory to the south of us.   I went back to look at precipitation totals for the Oct. 23rd system that would be tied with our current system based on the LRC.  There was an area in the middle where lower amounts of precip. fell and was located near the MO/IA border.  If the current predictions of where the heaviest snow is going to fall is correct, then the system just shifted a little bit south from Oct.  This time we will be in the lower precip. area.
Take a look at the website and check for yourself.
http://water.weather.gov/
Then choose Oct. 23rd.

Please, any thoughts on the new data would be appreciated.  I am at work and cannot access the models I am relying on you all
Becky
Parkville

So I guess what I'm hearing is that I wont be going to my work holiday party tomorrow (in OP, KS and I live near Liberty).  

When is all of this expected to start and how long will it last?  Should I prepare to wake up really early and get to the office really early to avoid driving in it?  Or should I just prepare another snow day?  : /

Now if we could only get 2-3' of snow. Come on "Big One" we know you'll come soon!

WoW!  Your almanac shows that the record high for today was 104!?  And the record l;ow was 52 degrees!  We blew that one away, huh?

KANE 1970 it is NOAA HAZ outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008

ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
600 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILL
READINGS RANGING BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY. THE
COLDEST READINGS WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM KANSAS CITY TO
KIRKSVILLE...WHERE READINGS OF -15 OR LOWER MAY RANGE THROUGH NOON.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TWO ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE LARGEST SNOW EVENT FOR THE SEASON TO DATE...WITH
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 36.
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH RANGING FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD LEAD TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. PERSONS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS DETAILS ON THESE UPCOMING EVENTS BECOME
MORE CERTAIN.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD LEAD TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
nICE. Sounds like a fun night at work.

Jeremy what is your thoughts on snow tomrrow with the new data?

Folks, this does not look like a major event.

Currently, if you live on the northern side of the metro, you stand a better chance of seeing 2-5 inches of snow.

The new data will begin to filter in beginning shortly after 3:00, beginning with the NAM and then the GFS after 4:00.

--------------

Adam,

We will update the blog later this afternoon with our thoughts on this crazy weather pattern.

Gary

this is a joke http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif im in the middle of the gap

While I am disappointed that we will miss out on the big snow this week, I still applaud you guys and your handling of the info.   You were not only first to call this cold outbreak long ago, but you resisted putting totals on a storm 5 days out, unlike other stations.    This week seemed to be the one that would pile up the snow, but we will get more chances.    I only hope the trend for the year does not continue and get the storms going to the east of KC.    It is hard to imagine that the cold air will not push the storm a bit south.    We shall see.

Again, great job keeping us up to date with the most accurate info!
Joe

f00dl3,

You said - "With this LRC pattern, should we be worried about a drought setting up for this next Spring/Summer? KCI was .77" below normal for November, and so far .61" below normal for December. "

I wouldn't worry about it.  While the data you pulled is accurate for one very specific location, a broader view paints a somewhat different picture.  Largely for the metro and miles surrounding the area, it was about normal and a corridor from OKC to Kirksville [passing just SE of the area] had some areas of above average rainfall for November.

As we head into the Winter months, it naturally does dry up much more...

As far as December, we are just about half way into it.  The pattern has been active with precip just missing in spots.  So far it is a pattern of halves and have nots.  This year, has reversed so far from last.  NW of the metro for December has been very dry.  Areas near the metro have been largely close to average with it getting wetter to the SE.  

Very similar to Nov, there is a corridor of precip from about Emporia to Chillicothe that is running up to 150% of normal so far.

I think things are ok so far..I won't worry yet.

Thats exciting. So if this does track a bit farthur south how much snow for kc?

South !

Just a few things i've noticed so far this year, probably doesnt mean anything, but I do believe in patterns like the LRC.  This is based around the I70 area, not north of KCI.

1.  Storms that could have started as sleet or rain have been mostly snow, where last year a lot of storms stayed as sleet.  
2.  Storm have not been getting their act together, or at least enough to produce a "real" snow.  They have been forming one short band of snow.
3. Cold air seems to be stronger than computer models are showing.

So based on these few items i'd say we will be colder than planned, but i'm worried about getting to the 20-25 inches of snow range.  It only takes one big storm to get to that low of a snow total so it's very possible to still easily make it, but we'll need more than quick passing storms.

One more note on Ice Storms...It seems that ice storms always go 30-50 miles north of where they're predicted...so if we see one south of kc 50miles i'd say watch out!

Hey Adam, it's not a major event if your furnance works! If it does not like mine, it is very major!!! :-) Hoping the repair guy, when he comes out, can fix it!
Audra

kcwxguy, I just put the numbers for Topeka together this morning (see below).  

For the period of November 1 - December 14 we have received about 33% of both snowfall and total precipitation compared to both the same period last year and normal.  Last year our really big snows didn't begin until the later part of December so there is still hope.  But so far it has been pretty much no-man's land here which has been the case for many recent winters - last year being the exception....and yes I'm worried!..... ;)

Topeka 11/1 - 12/14 2008
08-09 07-08 normal
Avg temp 39.5 38.5 38.2
Snowfall 1.0 2.8 3.6
Precip 0.97 3.36 3.06

I feel your pain, weatherfreak01.  In the winter '93/'94, I was living with my dad and step-mom in St. Paul, MN, and our heater broke one evening. I remember sleeping that night with literally about 4 blankets, two layers of clothes, a hat, scarf and gloves.  If I remember right, I think the house got to somewhere in the 40's or maybe lower.  I was NEVER so excited to have to get up and go to work the next morning, even though I did have to walk about a mile to work in - degree windchill.  It is NOT fun, so I know how miserable you could be! :)

I know nobody really cares, but thought I'd share : )

If anyone is upset as I am about not getting the big snow amounts..... just have patience.  It is still technically fall!  The first half of December was kind of crazy even with the smaller snow amounts.  


Just think what January and even Feb. will have in store for us!


We keep getting missed over by the passing weather for heavy snows.  We are getting them at least, and that is a start.  One of these suckers is going to be just right for Kansas City.  

It is like what the great Wayne Gretzkey once said "you miss 100% of the shots you dont take"

Well, mother nature is taking shots on Kansas City.  One of them will sooner or later make a goal right on top of us.  

That is rough weatherfreak!!!    I hope you get it fixed fast and have a place to stay warm while you are waiting.    Your biggest problem is hoping the pipes do not burst.     I will not complain one more time today after hearing of your problem.    

Good Luck

Since the Haz Weather forecast out of Pleasant Hill was posted I thought I would post what Topeka is saying.  Notice especially the location of heaviest snow, its not north of Hwy 36, at least in Kansas.  Its along I-70.  I believe that Topeka has been much more accurate with these stroms than Pleasant Hill, as far as counties in all of Eastern Kansas go, not just those in their coverage area.  Pleasant Hill seems to put far too much attention on Missouri counties;

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
527 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA TUESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW AND MOST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 TUESDAY MORNING...WHERE 2 TO 4
INCHES IS POSSIBLE. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE. FURTHER SOUTH...A STORM TOTAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY BETWEEN INTERSTATE 70 AND HIGHWAY 56. LESS
THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF AN EMPORIA TO OTTAWA LINE.
CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES LATER TODAY AS DETAILS REGARDING THIS
WINTER STORM SYSTEM BECOME MORE CONCRETE.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...OR EVEN SNOW...IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO FALL.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED AS IT BECOMES AVAILABLE.

DavidMCG-

You must also keep in mind that the National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill has far more counties to cover in Missouri then they do in Kansas. That might be why a lot of the focus is on the Missouri side when they discuss key items in the hazardous weather outlook. As far as the storm goes for Tuesday, it would still appear to me that the models do not have a good handle on the cold air still at this time, therefore that would make me believe that the snowfall forecasts from the models would need to be adjusted further south. Of course, nothing significant will come from this storm, and it was never thought to be that way, but a couple of inches will be possible across most of KC area. That will at least add to the monthly totals, and just like was said by another blogger earlier, last year we really didn’t get into our bigger snow storms until late December and they continued on through at least Feb. So don’t lose hope yet, now I know I have said an thought that 20-25 is going to be  high, it is reasons such as this coming Thursday’s event that make me think that way. I think we are going to see far more sleet, and or ice situations as I believe we are going to have difficulties this year hanging on to deep cold air, but who knows! I do know that the latest update out of Pleasant Hill (1pm HWO) shows a possibly stronger storm system for Thursday compared to this morning…I guess we will just have to wait and see!

Bryan

Let it ********SNOW*********  and lots of it. Come on White Christmas

NEW 18Z nam coming out now...looks to me the SOUTH trend is continuing...

What about Thursday's forecast?? I hear there is more snow/ice/frzg rain/ on that day??

Weatherfly or anyone else can you send a link to models?

Here is the link....
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

We're good!

What NAM model do you look at?

Weatherfly,

Yes, the 18Z NAM is even further south than the 12Z run.

Maybe Bill in Lawrence will be right after all.

The 18Z GFS will be very interesting to see.


My suspicions about warm air on Thursday are looking more real now. Here is a portion of the NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook issued shortly after 1 p.m. today.

They speak of just plain freezing rain changing to just plain rain in the afternoom.

LATER IN THE WEEK ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION.
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
AS WARMER AIR SPREADS NORTH DURING THE DAY THE FREEZING RAIN MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

Even if we do have freezing rain on thursday, with surface temps in the mid-upper 30's ice will not accumulate on much other than maybe trees or elevated surfaces.

Temps have to be ATLEAST in the 25-28 degree range for a major ice storm to occur.

Weatherfly - when you say south are we going to get more than expected?  I in western Lenexa, near Desoto.  I'm hoping for my son - he so wants a snow day.

congerie-
each time at the top corresponds to the current zulu time so
00utc = 600 pm kc time
06utc =  12 am kc time
12utc = 6 am kc time
18utc = 12 pm kc time
i like looking at the fine model and inside the fine model i choose 850 mb, MSLP, 6 hr precip. and loop it

hope this helps

We probably wont be able to come up with any solid predictions until the 10pm weather cast due to the instability of this thing.  Maybe we will get a nice surprise tomorrow!

Wow, what can I say it is COLD, COLD, COLD, we did get a brief period of snow last evening that gave us a dusting to.
As for tomorrow well we will see still not going to get to exited but maybe we will have a white coating by tomorrow night here in St. Joe;) !

Tuesday's storm if Kansas City does get anything out of it will be minor - I'm off tomorrow.

Thursday's storm will probably be the main headline of the week and probably either a significant snow or ice storm with heavy accumulations possible - I have to work on Thursday.

I can't remember ever seeing significant winter weather on a day I'm off work - and I'm off work 3 days a week every week thanks to my shift.

I do remember major 10"+ snowstorms and 1"+ ice storms happening on days I have to trudge into work, though :-)

The trend now seems to put the .1 to .25 liquid range in and just barely south of the KC area, I expect a snow ratio near 15:1, so could be anywhere from 1.5 inches up to near 4 inches, but we need to look at the new GFS to see if it agrees with the NAM.  Keep your fingers crossed.

So...what time does this precip look to start for downtown and just a little north?  Trying to figure out how early to get up and out.  Also, how long does it look like the precip will last?

could some one please give me an idea of the first possible start of any snow. Large amounts or not I think it will still snow. Just need to know what time about. Thanks

I hate to bug you all again about my earlier question...but I seldom blog in and I am very curious as to what you think.

Elaine in Mclouth.

Adam, Thursday's set up could go either way with snow or ice.  We would need at least a constant 33 or above temps for more than 6 hours for any ice to only form on trees, etc.  That may happen, but this senerio is also a classic example for a good old fashion snow..  If the warm air does magically form, then freezing rain would be the lead over any snow.

I thought it was mentioned earlier snow would start around 5 am or at least during the morning rush hour.  

1989's -23 degrees record.  If I remember right, I spent that night skiing at Snow Creek's midnite to 6am night skiing session.  Yes, I was nuts and somehow the old car I had started when I left.  Remember seeing the temp at that bank's thermometer on the outskirts of Weston when driving home.  

" Notice especially the location of heaviest snow, its not north of Hwy 36, at least in Kansas.  Its along I-70."

Yes, but...the axis of heavy snow is typically oriented along a line going southwest to northeast. that would put the heaviest snow further north the farther east you go. So it makes perfect sense that the topeka weather office would say "along I-70" while the pleasant hill office would have the heaviest snow further north.

Thursday could get interesting.  This arctic airmass will be stubborn to move out, especially if we get 1-2 inces of snow here and a better snowpack across southern and northern Missouri.  It is possible that Thursday may be colder than models show (The WRF has been 2-3 deg warmer for today) and with precipitation overunning this cold dome of air it sets up a decent scenario for freezing rain.  I guess it all depends if we are 28 vs. 30 degrees at the surface, but it will be fun to watch this one.  Good luck forecasting!

so what are the models saying now? anything new?

Looks like the snow is increasing to the southwest of us a little earlier than expected?

Thanks for all your warm thoughts everyone. I turned off the furnance since it's just blowing cold air, thus dropping the temp in the house faster. So far with the extra insulation in the attic the temp is maintaining at 61 inside. I can't get the flue open on the fireplace so I'm just bundled up for now. The tropical birds are in the bathroom & the heat lamp on in there for them. I like Winter, but this part SUCKS! :-)

I normally am looking forward to it being all white outside tomorrow, but since I only live about 15 minutes from I 70 I might re-evaluate that opinion. (very big grin here)

Alright my final thought on this upcoming storm for tomorrow if that is what it is.  I think in years past they have been getting better each year forecasting the snow events, but........I think something about this year is throwing in some kind of a wrench into the entire prediction process.  Maybe its on over reliance on models and climatological data, I don't know.  But it seems even 24 hours out from a storm every weather forecaster has a different solution and all seem to be way off.  Sure, some have been a lot closer than others on the 24 hour forecast, but it seems like this year we have to rely on the 12 our forecast more than most years.  Over the last couple of years I have taken the models suggestions with a grain of salt.  This year I have even less faith in any 24 hour model.  One thing is for sure, a snow storm will develop tomorrow somewhere between Dodge City and Columbia, it could be either side of that line 100 miles.  At least that is as accurate as both of the Topeka and Pleasant Hill forecasts are saying.  But I bet by 10PM tonight Gary and team have it narrowed down much further than that.  I have not checked the data for the KC area in the last several hours, but out here north of Topeka we did not get as much heat gain as they believed and our humidity is much lower.

MikeL - yup...you have been a bit slighted in Nov/Dec this year.  However, in December of last year...you all made it up in a big way ending up with about 200-400% of norm for precip.  Much must have come in the last two weeks!

Boy - we are just two weeks into meteorological Winter and the snow depression already has begun.  

Food for thought-  the normal amount of precip for December is 1.64 inches [for KMCI from 1972-Present].  If that were all snowfall, thinking of just a base 10:1 ratio, that would be ~16 inches of snow.  Of course, that doesn't happen here.

Half the month of December, the mean daily temperature is above freezing.  Consequently, for the other half of the month, precip would need to fall closer to evening for snow to fall.  That said, the average KMCI snowfall for December is 4.5 inches.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=kcrecnorm-dec

Let's look back in this month already:  we have had 4 snow days recorded in the first 14 days.  We had rain another day.  5 days in the first 14 for precip.  Not too shabby.  

While KMCI is showing just under an inch total so far, remember that in Downtown to Lee's Summit, we had 1-4 inches already fall on Dec. 9th.

We still have two more weeks of what looks to be an active pattern.  We have not had the big cutoff low type storms yet, as they get trapped out west and spit waves/vorticity at us.  Shortwave type storms are generally small in nature, and can produce only localized snow.

It would only take one of these types of storms to snap free out of the west and blast through the four corners to make a month's snow total in one day.  

Adam - the 18z 24hr QPF not too shabby considering the potential snow ratio

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_p24_030l.gif

Also, looking at current surface obs, you have to go down into the middle of TX to find temperatures above freezing, and even under 50 degrees in Corpus.  

Looking at the 1000/500 for Thurs, I do buy the return flow...but not sure about how far the lower levels will retreat.  With shallow air in place at the surface, this time of year, I tend to lean away from the 1000/500 for heights, rather go with the 1000/850.  Based on that, you get this...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_sl8_078l.gif

A slightly different picture than the 1000/500.  Factoring in that the cold air will tend to persist at the surface, I am curious about what will fall.  Somewhere between 700mb-850mb, it will freeze on the way down and keep freezing.  

Maybe more sleet to snow...  In looking at the set up, I see a building surface low surrounded by surface highs in every direction.  I think the surface low is getting some enhancement in the return flow from the high pressure in the panhandle of Florida.  The flow feeds warm moist air into the surface low...but the biggest question still remains...at what level?

The NAM for Friday wants to give .1-.5 QPF for the metro area..  

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_p24_084l.gif

That could be quite interesting to see what falls where.  I forsee it as a nightmare to forecast.  

Good luck Gary/Jeremy.

new blog started...adding more to is as we type...

new blog!

So far today a high of nine, nobody (except for NBC) of gotten the temps right, they were right to go very cold! I'm thiking 1-5" for our area, here's noaa's snow forecast:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=eax

For NAM, RUC, GFS and GFS Long range mdel animations:

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/READY_animations.php

Is it good to use?