NBC Action Communities

Come on Gary!! Give the southeastern part of the metro some good news! I'd be happy with an inch!!!!

Impressive for now potential?  Bah hambug!!  
In my opinion, if it aint a big enough snow storm to really justify me being a whimp and staying home, it's just a waste of snow and should just not happen.  : )

"Impressive" is a fairly subjective term-I would interpret "impressive" as 6-8 inches for around here.  The suspense is killing me :)  Can anyone else who is able to read the charts/graphs give us a clue as to what the new data MIGHT suggest?

I'm hoping for a good couple of inches for the northland area. Nothing worse than trying to make a drive to Overland Park from the northland in a Mustang with snow on the ground. Gimme 2+ so I can justify staying home and working from there!

AAAAAAHHHHHH!!!!! Too much suspense!!!!!! LOL LOL
Becky
Parkville

Cannot wait to see the information. The school kids are waiting

One of these days, I'll remember to buy a snow shovel.

I think he means 'impressive' more in the sense of "everyone will probably see something" not "we will see 6-8 inches".

Yes, i believe impressive is too strong a word here as well. I know its nitpicking.

;)

1-2 inch snows are what i would call "average", but not impressive.

winter wx advisory for lawrence topeka areas for 2-3 inches possible by tomorrow pm.

Can't wait to see, although I WILL NOT alow myself to look at the weather by 7:00 tongiht, whenever I restain myself and throw snow from last year outside, the snow turns out big, like our last storm. Quick question, are these good models to use?

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/READY_animations.php

What, you like cliffhangers now?  I guess you could write a years worth of blogs, then say it was all a dream.  Oh wait, that was Dallas in the 80's....

Should I get excited?

Guys,

Garry said that the date were impressive - he made no statements relating to how impressive the alleged snow might be! :)

John

yes flakefan they are

Aaarrggghhh...the suspense!

with these cold temps the snow/liquid ratio will be high...so it could pile up to 2-3" without even having all that much moisture involved.

GFS has also trended south, it will snow tomorrow.  I'm stricking to 2-4 across the metro.

Gary said 1-2 inches maybe 3 on weather plus and thursday maybe 40 degrees.

Gary is doing a great job of teasing us!!!! :)

relax guys......"impressive for the snow potential" nothing mentioned about the amount.

My least favorite part of that little forecast he gave was the hazardous driving weather he mentioned.  And it doesn't look I can get out early enough to beat it...since I wont be heading this way at 4:30 in the morning.

Winter weather advisory now for KC

I sure hope that means the trend is far enough south for me to get more than a dusting. I have had a dusting of snow, last week and layer, very thin, of sleet. We want SNOW!! :o)  I drove up to Overland Park this am to do some shopping and man is it COLD!! My face was frozen from all the trips in and out of my van. Brrrrrr!!!! Give me and the girls something to cheer about during the 5 o'clock news Gary...we will be watching!!!!
Monica and girls
Pleasanton, KS

WWA out for NW MO and NE KS.  Calling for 1-2" in Clay County.  From 6a - 6p Tues.

Just the fact it's 9 outside right now is "impressive for snow potential".

:-S Doesn't tell us much.

Winter weather advisories are out check it

http://www.weather.gov/

yeaaaa Carl Peterson is gone! time to rebuild the Chiefs!

Winter Weather Advisory just issued for Jo Co!

Huh...weather advisory to the north, weather advisory to the south. Stuck in the middle again.....

NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for most of the metro now..

They are calling for 1-2 inches of snow...

What ever happened to global warming?

Gary you love to torment us!...but I see your basis for holding back...its better to tease than say we are going to get a snowstorm...because if it doesn't happen..its all on you..lol

although I would love a couple inches down here before I leave for sunny, hot, Phoenix AZ for Christmas!...lol

They just updated the web 7 day outlook at 34 on Thursday as warmest reading, looks like Gary is moving toward some of the other sites that have it warming more (actaully probably ridiculously warm) for Thursday.

Wow can today get any better?  Snow chance and Carl Peterson quit?  I know it is cold out but I didn't think hell froze over at this temp...

JOCO KS just added to winter weather advisory

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE...RIGHT AROUND THE
TIME OF THE MORNING DRIVE TO WORK. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW WILL LAST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND THEN CHANGE TO A MIX OF INTERMITTENT SNOW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.


CONDITIONS CAN DETERIORATE RAPIDLY IN WINTER WEATHER SITUATIONS. SLOW
DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME WHEN TRAVELING. PRACTICE YOUR WINTER SAFETY
RULES...KEEP A FLASHLIGHT...FOOD AND WATER IN YOUR CAR IN CASE OF
EMERGENCY.

his newest newscast says 1 inch south of the metro and maybe 3 north?

Mr. Steve, i think it is important to understand that Global Warming directly affects the climate, which in turn indirectly affects the weather

Oh and i like the random push for 60 the GFS has thursday nite.... lol

1-2 inches is nothing to write home about. Not very exciting at all, I would just as soon it didn't snow at all if all we can get is 1-2 inches, lol.

Yeah SNOW!!!!!!!!!

Looking forward to seeing the map.

I do not see how NWS is calling for it to change to freezing drizzle in the afternoon with a high of 20.  Looking at the models, its below freezing through all the layers of the atmosphere all day long.

How is Christmas looking?  White?

GFS has lost its mind..perhaps.

I think impressive is fair considering the nature of the storm and that it was at best a dusting just less than a day ago.

In looking at the monthly trends for precip based on the surface, [how topical], I might keep an eye out for the southern trend.

What is better than snow?   Carl finally stepping down as GM of the Chiefs!!!   Bet Jack is happy :)

Gary, can you narrow it down to a timeframe as to when it should start and when it should end?  I caught it, sort of, during the little broadcast thing on the weather page, but was hoping you could be a little more specific.

And...any chance that this might change again and move back up north, or are you pretty confident that 1-2 inches is the norm?

Snow + Carl Peterson =  Perfect Setup

The other caviet is that the models may continue their southern trend on the 00z and 06z runs, and make the storm miss Kansas City to the south.

The other caviet is that the models may continue their southern trend on the 00z and 06z runs, and make the storm miss Kansas City to the south.

I know this is a weather blog, but i just have to.

Carl is now finally gone!! May Chiefs fans rejoice!

A great day in Chiefs history!

:)

Did  Gary really mean "there is no chance of snow with this second storm?"  Did he really mean "ice?"  I'm confused (not hard for me to get this way...I play Trombone).

DL

--------------

DL,

I meant no chance of snow!

Gary

Could we maybe get a map with some more specific snow predictions, the areas that are likely to get less than 1'', 1.5'', 2+'', that sort of thing? Or is it too early to tell? Those are always really helpful. :)

---------------------

I will update the blog later this evening with a snowfall map.

Gary

Gary or Jeremy.. Go check and see if Jack is dacing a jig on the sports desk.  Better yet, catch it on camera!  He was on some rant last night!

Weather-wise I can't help but wonder if more moisture will get injected into the storm as it goes.  We have seen that happen already in recent days.  

----------------

There is a chance!

Gary

Yay!! Chiefs Celebrate everywhere!! Gary, what is coming to the webpage? Tell us, Tell us. :) yah, I know I've always had the beggar in me:)

Whats better than snow and no Carl Peterson anyways?

Now we just need to get Herm outa here.

Gary:

Good cold later afternoon to you sir and to the entire weather team!! We are currently sitting at 10 degrees here in SW Lawrence. My oldest son called me this morning from his Mom’s and his thermometer read minus 2 this morning-it is probably off by a few degrees but man to get this cold and stay basically in the single digits even though it was cloudy without a true snow pack around to me is very impressive indeed!!!

I am excited about tomorrow-yea-1-3 inches is nothing earth shattering but it is a typical snow fall in this area and as lite/fluffy as it will be, it will be great to pull the boys on their sleds behind my old mountain bike-maybe not an igloo building snow, but will be awesome nonetheless!! It will also be fun to watch the radar and satellite and of course take a quick glimpse at the 0z runs (NEW DATA…) just to see if maybe this doesn’t get a bit more energized. The main energy is stuck back in the SW but this is putting down some major snows in Arizona today. Maybe this little vorticity will catch lightening and intensify a bit and if it does, maybe it will help keep the colder air here longer for Thursday and act somewhat as a block.  Will be fun to follow for sure!!  Whatever happens, I will take what snow I get, enjoy it, and say thank you very much Mother Nature!!

Here is kind of a random thinking out loud thought that is probably way off but here it goes: Thursday’s system as depicted on the models right now to me is so typical of winter storms in this area. If one looks at this from just a bird’s eye view, one would think this is the perfect set up. We have cold arctic air in place with a fairly vigorous short wave coming out of the SW-that is a text book example for a winter storm. However, as happens so often here, a snow lover’s main nemisis (accept for tomorrow LOL) the old warm air advection decides to crash the party-and if the GFS is to be believed crash it with a wrecking ball. I think it just shows how hard it is to get a big snow dump in this area-they happen of course but to be honest I am surprised they happen as frequently as they do considering just how many things can go wrong. For sure, Thursday is in weather terms like 6 weeks out as so many things can still and will happen before then-in my very humble hobbyist opinion the first is just exactly what happens to this energy tomorrow further east down the stream. There is a lot of cold air in place and the front did indeed dive all the way to southern Texas so who knows-will of course be awesome to follow!! But I just think that looking at Thursday as the models today have forecasted is quite interesting and says a lot about how many things have to be perfect to get big winter storms here.

Finally a quick point about the LRC:  I think the LRC nailed this pattern to the wall harder than Martin Luther did his 95 Thesis. This whole set up we are seeing right now was discussed before Thanksgiving and well, here it is!! The pattern is active as all get out-the ridge did build all the way to Alaska and it does not happen like that every year and we have witnessed a true arctic outbreak-10 degrees for a high with no snow pack-that is arctic!! I have imagined Gary, Brett, Jeff, Jeremy, Scott, and Ed sitting back like the emperor in Star Wars Return of the Jedi: it is all happening as I have foreseen. No, I cannot even begin to go into the science of the LRC  or by any stretch of the means find it/figure it out (but I will make myself look foolish trying to LOL)-but I have seen the forecasts come to fruition. No, I have not seen 12 inches of snow in my back yard even though last time through we had some wet storms in this area during this cycle-the fact remains, the pattern is there and that is what to me counts!! Just my 2 cents!!

Oh-quick shout out to Scott in the previous blog-excellent blog about this month so far regarding snow and temperatures etc. Great job!!!

Have a great night-Sorry this is so long but I have been thinking about this most of the day!! This is going to be a great week to follow beginning with the radar returns tonight!!! As always, thanks for reading!!!

Bill in Lawrence

"The new data is impressive for the snow potential on Tuesday." and "With this set up we are expecting 1 to 3 inch snowfall amounts through most of the viewing area." Should not be used in the same blog. LOL (JK)  I agree if it ain't 6 to 8 inches than forget it, enough with this piddly stuff.   I do hope the big stuff holds off though as I got shopping to do still and I hate driving in this mess.  I need at least 1 good clean road day. LOL

"Something very exciting is coming to our weather website later this week!" Way to leave us hanging.  

Thanks, Gary.  Bummer on that storm but they'll be another:)

DL

Bloggers,
I think that the gfs will bring the low farther south on thursday in the model picks up on the fact that it is still cold on wednesday. Example: tomorow's forecast is now for the snow to be further south again...

sorry but I missed the forecast, I was was shamefully watching all the other stations...they all said about an inch for Harrisonville...is that about what you guys are thinking as well?....I also hear talk of possible Ice on thursday...but I see that you are predicting it to be a little warm for that I guess.

---------------

Brent,

Guilt trip here.....I can't believe you watched all of the others and not us.  It's O.K.  I will get over it.

Gary

The temperatures dropped yesterday 50 degrees, at least, there is no reason why they could not rise just as much Thursday.

I just hope we get more that 3" of snow. I want it all!!!! Is there any chance of getting 3" + in the metro? Is there a chance  the system moves a little more south to give us more snow? I guess I can just hope. Keep up the good work team, I know you guys will be bissy in the comming days.

is there any chance it can start earlier? because im hoping for a snow day.

I see the weather alerts are out and I am not in them.....errrrrrr!! I am holding out hope that everyone is wrong and it slide alittle more to the south, :o) I know..."don't hold your breath Monica"!!!!
Monica
Pleasanton

-------------------

Monica,

I think you should get at least an inch of snow.  Don't worry yet.

Gary

I'll tell you how much it will snow tomarrow in 24 hours.

One comment on the Chiefs... my hubby wants Jack Harry to take the job.. I do agree tho.

And Gary... please turn up that thermostat and fire up the snow maker

Wow... Jack just converted me to NBC... I flicked channels and saw him last night with his rampage... Tonights commentary was awesome. Nice job Jack!

Now onto snow... Last nights effort was pretty minor in my neck of the woods (JoCo), but the road crews done a fantastic job on the roads, no probs going to work at 0530 this morning. Tomorrows storm is looking more impressive, if it carries on Thursdays maybe pretty good!

Loving the cold weather, my dog is loving the snow. If we can just get the wind chills out of the loop, I'd be super happy! :)

H.

So is there any chance of this system going more south? Im like really close to downtown and 1-2 inches is just annoying. If its going to snow and be this cold then I want at least 3-6 inches. Anyways what is Thursday looking like exactly? Snow, sleet, freezing rain, or just rain?? Anyone know?

"Guilt trip here.....I can't believe you watched all of the others and not us.  It's O.K.  I will get over it.

Gary"

Yeah, I'm sorry Gary...I was just wishcasting I guess....I went to the stations that told me what I wanted to hear...lol not what was going to happen...

HAHA snowflake tie! lol

and hey were sticking with our infamous 1-4 inches across the metro, we saw that last year too lol

I wasn't home for the 6 report -- was there by chance a timeframe mentioned...like when it will start and end?

I caught a glimpse of another station's forecast at a restauarant at dinner tonight.

They had 80% ice and a high of 31 on thursday.

What data are they looking at??

We have seen this type of setup in kansas city so many times. Id be willing to bet a large sum of money that temps will be in the 50's with rain on thursday.

It will feel like summer! lol.

Just rain thursday, IMO...

i will be interested to see how the impending snow depth will affect local conditions leading up to thursday.  i bet that if there is atleast a 2" depth then we will hover around freezing at best on thursday.

How bad do you think it will be in the raymore area at around 5 am, do you think their will be flurries or some nice snow coming down? Thanks and appreciate all your hard work!

How will the morning rush hour be?  How do you think the roads will be in Lee's Summit at 7AM?

Folks, I would wait until the 9 or 10 forecast to get answers to the morning rush drive.  These events have changed so much and so rapidly within even hours that what you saw at say 5 will be somewhat different at 10.  Maybe not by much, but specifics will be more solid by 10 for the morning.  These storms do one thing, then quickly adjust to throw you off.  It is like they are some rebellious storm that does something different once it gets figured out just to make people edgy.

I know we still have tomorrow to get through before we focus on Thursday's events, but Thursday seems like a much more intriquing bag of tricks to me. ;)


Interesting wording out of the SGF AFD this afternoon. In this blog, you say you are buying the much warmer solution the models(even the GFS??) are indicating for Thursday.

Springfield doesnt seem to be buying it yet...


A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE AREA. FEEL THAT THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...IS
LIFTING THIS WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH WAY TOO QUICKLY. THE
ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH THE 12Z RUN...AND WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH CWA AND NEAR 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA ON THURSDAY... WHICH
FALLS MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT THINKING...AND EVEN AT THAT MAY
STILL BE A TAD TO FAST. THE GFS QUICKLY MOVES THE FRONT BACK TO
THE NORTH AND AS A RESULT HAS RETURNED TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF FAITH IN
THE GFS SOLUTION. THE AREA IS CURRENTLY UNDER A STRONG ARCTIC
AIRMASS...AND IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR THE WARM FRONT TO
ERODE THIS VERY COLD AIRMASS.


Well if that were to be the case, things could get really interesting here.


They also stated this....


THERE IS SIGNIFICANT QUESTION IN THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST BUT COULD SEE THE NEED FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH IF
LATER FORECASTS WARRANT.


Winter storm watch??? REALLY???

Wow...


Maybe Im the one way off on buying the warm solution. It just seems to me that this sort of stuff happens all of the time here. WAA always crashes the party in KC more than 50% of the time it seems.

Good luck on forecasting this one. I now understand why you guys are playing the middle ground for this one right now.

I really doubt that it will get in the 50's on Thursday I just dont see how that is even possible to tell you the truth. Im thinkin a major ice storm for Thursday maybe like the one we had about 7 years ago.

=( I hope for some ice and ALOT of snow.

Private Murphy stole my thoughts. A snow/ice pack not only here, but to the south into Oklahoma wil definitly affect the temps Thursday. It may be much closer to freezing here with a three inch snow pack.

If no snow then 40 is doable. Snow here into say Joplin area, then ice storm may be possible.

Kind of reminds me of the storm last year. Morning ice to rain, and St.JOe got the brunt of the worst.

The temperature has jumped ONE FULL DEGREE in the hour I've been home here in south OP.

Not much in actual terms, but given our temps today, I'll take every degree I can find!

Anyway, I assume this might continue (even if slightly) throughout the night prior to the onset of tomorrow's weather?

"Im thinkin a major ice storm for Thursday maybe like the one we had about 7 years ago."

may I ask what basis you are taking this from?...or is this just a guess?...because 7 years ago as I recall, was very bad...and something like that does not happen all the time.

plus I don't think that much moisture will be present for this storm...

So when is all this snow going to start tomorrow?  I work at a school and I am just curious if there is any chance of a snow day!!!  Is it going to start early enough to call of school?

It certainly looks to me like the 0Z NAM is trending even stronger and more widespread for the snow storm tomorrow...

Brent,

Moisture will not be a problem with Thursday's storm. At this point, it seems to be all about the temperature profiles at the different layers of the atmosphere as well as at the surface.

Those will be the key factors.

Gary,
you noted on your 6 PM forecast that little southerly moisture flow from the gulf. what are your thoughts on that getting intrained in the system and increasing snow amounts?

Adam, this isn't weather related but it's bugging me a lot..you say IMO a lot. what the heck does that mean? LOL

Lol calm down Brent its just wishful thinking, just a guess. I would love for that to happen even though it does cause many problems.

well the surface will be colder than it should be because we will have snow on the ground. I guess we will just have to see how far the warm air shifts to the north.

new blog......well a new blog header....

plazajayhawk: i think the team is forecasting a start around 3AM, but the brunt not to arrive until around 6AM. And, as HailJonathon asked, I'd also like to know what your thoughts are on the gulf moisture.

New blog, another tease...

Yes, The NAM continues to look good for snow.  Let's hope the trend continues with the GFS

The models have been showing the strong 850 moisture all day, why did Gary just catch onto this at 6pm?  Anyway,  the newest runs are pointing at 3-5 inches around the area, but runs all day were showing 2-3" with snow ratios of at least 15-1. The real question is why was Gary and Jeremy sticking with around 1" all day?  Good cold air in place, strong southwesterly flow aloft along with a good 500 mb disturbance typically leads to decent widespread snows across the area.  This should have been picked up on all day!

An Ice Storm,

oh no i might as well either get prepared now or get out of town by thursday.

Kansass city doesn't want an ice storm happening just yet, the High School kids have there final semester exams to do Gary. Can't the computer modles switch it forward till after final semester exams.

brad b