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New data....Snow could be heavy

Good evening bloggers,

There are two storm systems that will affect us this week. Storm #1 is just a few hours from beginning with snow spreading in and developing across most of the viewing area.  This storm is really a warm advection pattern that will likely come in two waves, one early in the day and the main wave around noon to 1 PM.  The snow would cut off by later in the day possibly changing to freezing drizzle.  Look below at the precipitation forecast during the morning by the NAM.  The ratios will be around 15 to 1, so some spots would likely see more than 3 to 4 inches if this verifies:

Storm #1 will come to a close as the wave of moisture moves by around 3 PM Tuesday.  Then we will look ahead to complex storm #2 which could bring freezing rain to the area on Thursday.  This is very tough to figure out at this time and we will look into it next week.  This weather pattern is rather fascinating.  Go to www.LRCWeather.com for details on the LRC, our winter forecast, and more.   

We are going to up our snow forecast totals a bit and I will post a snowfall forecast map after the 10 PM broadcast.  We will be tracking this with you on Tuesday.  Be sure to watch Jeremy Nelson beginning at 5 AM, and we will likely go into the first hour of the Today show if this storm is materializing.

Gary

Published Monday, December 15, 2008 7:59 PM by glezak

Comments

 

EGroves said:

I promise Gary!

I want to hear what you have to say!
December 15, 2008 8:15 PM
 

Kcchamps said:

ok i will watch at 10, now what are your thought??
December 15, 2008 8:16 PM
 

WEATHERdude said:

looking an the latest NAM, it resent the moisture to a heavy band right over Kansas City.... WOOT! im definitely watching at 10pm
December 15, 2008 8:16 PM
 

Roberto said:

I copies that from the last blog:
plazajayhawk: i think the team is forecasting a start around 3AM, but the brunt not to arrive until around 6AM. And, as HailJonathon asked, I'd also like to know what your thoughts are on the gulf moisture.
December 15, 2008 8:16 PM
 

Roberto said:

oh and yeah of course I'll watch at ten! :-)
December 15, 2008 8:17 PM
 

Jason said:

I always watch at 10
December 15, 2008 8:18 PM
 

Weatherfly said:

Yes, and it spead heavier precep to the west as well...looking good.  I hope the GFS backs up the NAM.
December 15, 2008 8:18 PM
 

sweetness said:

Gary I Jacob Hammond promise to watch at 10 lol tell us whats you think is up
December 15, 2008 8:18 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Ha..just got done looking myself.  It is a bit more prolonged and has up to .5 QPF.  

Big IF here.  IF..if it drops more snowfall, I am thinking the cold air may be a bit more prolonged and think Thursday gets more interesting.

I think the GFS has been too quick on the cold air retreat and too far north on paths for surface lows.  Looking at the WRF/Euro/CMC, I am not 100% that it couldn't snow on Thurs.  Not pre-frontal, but wrap around.
December 15, 2008 8:18 PM
 

waldoguy77 said:

Long time lurker, first time posting.....I'm ready for a good heavy snow, I'm a school bus driver and i'm ready for an early christmas break!  I promise to watch at 10...now what are your thoughts gary.
December 15, 2008 8:18 PM
 

Holmes524 said:

I ALWAYS watch at 10!!  Can't you share one thought now then a the rest at 10.  You know like opening one gift on Christmas Eve
December 15, 2008 8:19 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

HailJonathan said,

What the heck does IMO mean??

Sorry Jonathan, I tend to get into too many technical abbreviations.

IMO= In my opinion

Hope that helps...
December 15, 2008 8:19 PM
 

EGroves said:

Weatherdude,

THAT right there is music to my ears!
December 15, 2008 8:20 PM
 

bewild79 said:

I ALWAYS WATCH AT 10!!! lol
December 15, 2008 8:20 PM
 

Chris said:

Sorry, can't watch, better not update the blog, sorry everyone.  haha
December 15, 2008 8:20 PM
 

homemom said:

Have you ever been accused of being a tease??

:)
December 15, 2008 8:21 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

Scott,

.5 QPF?? Does that seem a little overdone to you??

It does to me.

EAX is calling for a 17:1 ratio. You do the math...lol


However I do agree. IF it were to do that, Thursday gets WAY more interesting.  

:)
December 15, 2008 8:26 PM
 

Darkwolfe said:

I'd happily watch if you had a stream on the website for it.  Unfortunately, I'm melded to a PC at work until 11.

Post it anyhow! I might have to come put snow in your shoes... :)
December 15, 2008 8:26 PM
 

stormlover said:

10 is too late since we have to get up so early.  How about coming on special at 9:)
December 15, 2008 8:26 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

I bought a new winter coat tonight (the old one was for me last year when I was 50-60 lbs heavier)
December 15, 2008 8:26 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Oh boy, Gary sounds excited so that may mean the four letter word is on the way - SNOW. I hope it is not about the three letter word ICE.

I hope the next Artic Blast doesn't last long. The cold weather is very hard on the elderly, especially those on a fixed income who have to decide between heat or food. I'm very concerned with so much cold weather being forcast this early in winter.
December 15, 2008 8:27 PM
 

jreeder said:

The models have been showing the strong 850 moisture all day, why did Gary just catch onto this at 6pm?  Anyway,  the newest runs are pointing at 3-6 inches around the area, but runs all day were showing 2-4" with snow ratios of at least 15-1. The real question is why was Gary and Jeremy sticking with around 1" all day?  Good cold air in place, strong southwesterly flow aloft along with a good 500 mb disturbance typically leads to decent widespread snows across the area.  This should have been picked up on all day!
December 15, 2008 8:28 PM
 

fornal said:

I got to leave work early today so I can watch @ 10!!!! If I was at work I am stuck wathcing one of those other stations ( I don't like that!!!)  I hope it is real heavy!!!
December 15, 2008 8:29 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Thanks Adam i wasn't being rude or anything. I just couldn't figure that out thanks =)
I AM THRILLED ABOUT THE TITLE OF THIS BLOG. Gary, YOU KNOW I'll be watching at ten. I haven't missed a forecast of yours or Jeremy's in like 2 weeks. You're Awesome! and SNOW is awesome. GO SNOW. GO BLOGGERS.
December 15, 2008 8:30 PM
 

Emmysmom said:

We have to watch at ten -- heck, the way it's been going, there is a good chance the forecast will be completely different AGAIN in 90 minutes!!
December 15, 2008 8:31 PM
 

jcarney said:

Well, I personally, like the fact that Gary is a bit more reserved until he's sure...  I get tired of some  of the other forecasters acting SURE SURE SURE about snow OR no snow....and then OOPS...they were completely off.  I would take a reserved snow total....until it's a sure thing that we'll get more than that... ANY day!! :)  (I hate getting excited and then having my hopes dashed, really!!  *laugh*)  
December 15, 2008 8:39 PM
 

LVStormSpotter said:

WOW!

Gotta say the NAM is looking pretty sexy. Bullseye seems to be shifting south, including COLUMBIA! Yeah!
December 15, 2008 8:39 PM
 

jcarney said:

PS....I can't WAIT to watch at 10:00!!!!!
December 15, 2008 8:40 PM
 

farmgirl said:

The NWS forcast for Thursday may scare some folks - They are saying significant ice and snow accumlations are possible in some areas. You never know what to think about the NWS - they flip flop so much that it is hard to use the site as a reliable weather tool.

I have my DVR set to record KSHB for all news broadcast that way I can just fast forward to the most important segment.... the weather. nd sometimes I fall asleep waiting for Gary. But not tonight - he's got me hooked with the tease!
December 15, 2008 8:40 PM
 

weather export said:

You know Gary,

Kansas City high schools are having there final semester exams this week, Can't the modles hold off till after the semester final exams.

Kansas City is not ready for a Ice Storm just yet, the people are not prepared.


Brad

:-)
December 15, 2008 8:41 PM
 

Emmysmom said:

Okay...its been more than a few minutes, Gary.  Where are you? :)
December 15, 2008 8:42 PM
 

WEATHERdude said:

lol it was music to my ears too!

I CANT WAIT ANY LONGER lol, Gary do you think that the NWS will send our a WS warning?
December 15, 2008 8:43 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

Well it is now apparent that we are going to have to wait and see what happens tomorrow as to what kind of snow pack we receive.

That will have a dramatic impact on Thursday's temperatures.


However, the 0Z NAM stayed very warm for Thursday's temperatures
December 15, 2008 8:43 PM
 

Sheree said:

I will watch at 10, but will be oh-so-sad if you say we'll get lots of snow and then only get a dusting....  
December 15, 2008 8:45 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Scott if the 17:1 ratio were true and we were to get .5 Liquid equivalent(I can't do math) how many inches would that be?
December 15, 2008 8:45 PM
 

pmccabe58 said:

I promise to watch Gary please tell us!! lol
December 15, 2008 8:46 PM
 

Brocksmama said:

I PROMISE TO WATCH AT 10!!!!  TELL ME MORE TELL ME MORE!!!
December 15, 2008 8:48 PM
 

KChomeloan said:

I do not like this cold weather, but if its going to be this cold and nasty bring on the snow, other than that, what is the point???
December 15, 2008 8:48 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

jreeder - moisture is one thing.  Something to get it to fall is another.  With the 500mb flow, the shortwaves have mainly been heading a bit north of us in combination with the persistent 500 mb SE ridging.

I am thinking more of the relevant lift is at the 700mb level than the 500mb.

Adam - dunno about overdone.  Maybe.  But, I am not favoring the GFS lately.  It has well..anyway.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p12_024l.gif

One thing to note, and it was mentioned earlier and had me research a bit.  Somewhat interesting to see what the precip pattern has been since November 1st.  There clearly is a streak just SE of KC from diagonal in a SW/NE orientation.  

This band has been yielding over average precipitation.  Much like last year, where the demarcation more NW...this year seems to be favoring those more south than north.  Something to watch and consider when thinking of precip potential and surface low tracks...

Something to consider for Thursday...  ;-)
December 15, 2008 8:48 PM
 

C in Raymore said:

i am really hoping nothing happens Thursday. I have a important doctors appointment that i want to be able to go too.
December 15, 2008 8:49 PM
 

Darkwolfe said:

.36" moisture?? Somebody want to break that into 15:1 and 20:1 conversion for snow.  I'm not in a good spot to do the math at the moment.
December 15, 2008 8:50 PM
 

sweetness said:

HailJonathan my math might be bad but i think that is 8.5 half of 17 is i mean
December 15, 2008 8:50 PM
 

Fire Dog said:

8.5
December 15, 2008 8:50 PM
 

Weatherfly said:

Gary shows .36 over KC, at 17:1, that would be around  6 inches of snow!
December 15, 2008 8:50 PM
 

TeacherInStJoe said:

Okay I had to call my mom to watch at 10 and let me know since I have satellite and don't get the KC channels.  I am curious now as to what we will get up in St. Joe.  The one day I have to report for Jury Duty and there is a potential for some heavy snow and I don't get to keep track  from the  PC.  This is going to suck. Maybe if I am lucky it will snow enough to give me a snow day on Thursday.
December 15, 2008 8:51 PM
 

Johnk24 said:

wouldnt .36" be 4-5 inches?
December 15, 2008 8:51 PM
 

heavysnow said:

Updated Maps on this blog.......
December 15, 2008 8:51 PM
 

Roberto said:

HailJonathon: 8.5"
December 15, 2008 8:52 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

my question is.. If its supposed to start at 4am and last till noon.. that's 8 hrs.. how in world would we only get 4 inches (per earlier forecast).???  That just doesnt' make any sense

and of course watching 10 news.. major DUHHHH
December 15, 2008 8:55 PM
 

plume said:

Again. I said it in the last blog. A snow depth of 3-4inches to the south of here, say Joplin/Springfield, perhaps just Nevada, and in no way can make it to the upeer thirtys Thursday. A snowpack, and ice is more possible.
December 15, 2008 8:55 PM
 

Darkwolfe said:

Maybe tonight's a good night to get that shovel....
December 15, 2008 8:55 PM
 

camatz6 said:

I do believe that 1 inch of rain equals 10 inches of snow.  Therefore, .5 of liquid precip would equal 5 inches of snow.  And, what does this ratio stuff mean 17:1?? please explain, I have been seeing that fly around alot today.
December 15, 2008 8:55 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Hail - remember QPF is a contoured representation of amounts.  I would say that .5 is a max value over the time frame.  More conservative thinking would say .25-.40 possible.

At that at 17:1, that would just be the QPF X 17:1 or just 17.  That would yield ~ 4-6 inches for this equation.  I would think 2-5 would be most prudent with some spots having a bit more or less near the band, but not directly in it through the duration.
December 15, 2008 8:55 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

jonathan, .5 X 17 = 8.5"

i doubt that though.  we will see i guess!
December 15, 2008 8:56 PM
 

sweetness said:

Darkwolfe the 15:1 = 5.4 and the 20:1 =  7.2
December 15, 2008 8:57 PM
 

Luthur said:

"I'd happily watch if you had a stream on the website for it. "

Agreed.  The technology is there.  Stream the forecasts.


"Well, I personally, like the fact that Gary is a bit more reserved until he's sure... "

Agreed again.  I think all the weather folks in town have toned it down quite a bit after the massive embarassments 3 and 4 years ago.  Gary and team have always been mostly reserved.

Hail Jon - 1 inch liquid equals 17 inches snow.  .5 inches liquid would equal 8.5 inches snow.  I think.  Seems way to dry of snow for this time of year.   That is what I gather, I could be totally off.  Although, as stated by previous posters, this is way overdone.  I'm not making any predictions, just giving you what I think they mean.  I could be wrong.  If so, hopefully someone will say so.  I'm learning like everyone else.  DISCLAIMER... I do not know this for sure.  Please don't take this post and go tell your family, friends or coworkers that Gary predicted 8.5 inches of snow.  Gosh, that gets annoying on here.  How many times I hear, "Gary predicted tornados/snow/ice," and then they show me a commenter's (not blogger) comment on this website.  

I'm pretty sure one reason Gary and team stay quiet is for that very reason.  There are the casual observers of this site that take commenter posts as gospel.  Bollucks.
December 15, 2008 9:00 PM
 

bewild79 said:

holy crap
December 15, 2008 9:01 PM
 

Jason said:

.36" with a 15:1 is 5.4
December 15, 2008 9:02 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Yuck, Gary mentioned the ice word. What is it with the ice over the last several years??? I remember as a kid (70s and 80s) that we rarely saw significant icing here - just snow or freezing drizzle, but not the heavy icing that seems to be occuring more frequently. I still remember 2002 ice storm vividly. I'm not ready to go through that again.
December 15, 2008 9:02 PM
 

Fire Dog said:

Lets see what the GFS is saying before I make any guesses.
December 15, 2008 9:04 PM
 

Luthur said:

I was typing my response when all the smart people posted.  Thanks for the info!
December 15, 2008 9:06 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

Scott,

I agree. 2-5 looks very good at this point.

I fully expect the weather team to go within this range.
December 15, 2008 9:10 PM
 

sweetness said:

Well Gary just updated the weather home page 2''-5'' to bad its not 2' to 5' that would be awesome id be safe at 6'2'' ha
December 15, 2008 9:11 PM
 

Braysmama said:

Since the NWS has NOT issued any kind of weather advisory I'm guessing it's staying north and we get an inch?
December 15, 2008 9:13 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

thank you all for your responses i would die for just 4 inches of snow the computer is about to die so if I'm not back I wish you all a good night! and I will watch at 10! GOod night ALL!
December 15, 2008 9:14 PM
 

Brent said:

definitely interesting me.....snow getting more likely and a potential ice event?
December 15, 2008 9:15 PM
 

billinlawrence said:

Good Evening everybody!!

Well, here we go....!!!

Maybe one quick look at the GFS but I think now it is radar and surface observation time. Looking at the Nexrad out of Topeka, that band of snow that has been ongoing for the past 6 hours or so along the Oklahoma/Kansas border is trying to slowly move/expand North east and also beginning to expand a bit North. Will be fun to watch!!!

Another interesting thing is the water vapor loop tonight: If I am seeing this correctly you can see the moisture streaming in from the Pacific as well as some from the Gulf trying to work North. However, what I think is really interesing is that you can see that ridge in the Gulf of Alaska and I think you can see the next shot of arctic air beginning to move down into the NWT of Canada. Pretty cool!!

Gary I'll tell ya-I don't envy you in any shape or form trying to figure out Thursday (even tomorrow has been crazy enough)-they don't pay you enough!!!! However, after living in this area for most of my life, this far out I wouldn't bet against the WAA for anywhere south of say KCI. It will be fascinating to follow but man it is going to be a bear to forecast until we get with in 10 hours of the onset of precipitation.

Whatever happens, the next 24 hours are going to be awesome to follow, learn, and discuss that is for sure and whatever we get I will thank Mother Nature!!!

Oh-one ironic thing: the 0Z NAM tonight looks almost exactly like it did last Saturday at 0Z!!!!

Have a great evening everybody!!

Bill in Lawrence
December 15, 2008 9:17 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

Bill,

Just wanted to tell you congrats on sticking to your guns. I know that you have been saying the GFS and the NAM was way off on its northern predictions.

Congrats on being right the whole time!
December 15, 2008 9:21 PM
 

Brent said:

I watched the 9 pm stations...it looked exciting...lol at least the one I watched...come on Gary make this good!
December 15, 2008 9:24 PM
 

RickMckc said:

Bill, if that NAM verifies, your hobbyist ramblings will have been right. Nice job!
December 15, 2008 9:25 PM
 

weatherjaded said:

As I read this blog entry from my Blackberry something bothered me.  I couldn't put my finger on it, but something was wrong.  Contrary to my screen name I always like to favor the facts and statistics over superstitions.  But, again this setup for a significant snowfall to begin in the next 6-8 hours and the potential for a significant weather event on Thursday, seems off.  We are trending upward with snowfall amounts towards 8 inches if everything goes right and we only average one snowfall a year over 4 inches, sounds too good to be true.  That teamed with Gary being at work makes this whole situation too good to be true.  So let me be the one to use the infamous words before the snow starts in hopes that my personal jinx will circumvent any other "Snowstorm 2008" or "Gary's Working" jinx that may exist.   Here we go, "I see the DRYSLOT forming, and POOF goes the SNOW."  
Matt in Grandview 28
December 15, 2008 9:32 PM
 

rymac said:

gfs is less than nam, but still has 4-5 inches,,,
December 15, 2008 9:39 PM
 

Emmysmom said:

weatherjaded, I wish you would be right!!  As much as I'd love staying home with my little girl, I only have 4 vacation days left until I go on maternity leave the end of March, and I have a feeling that I'm going to need those!!  At this point, while I'm freaked out about driving in any bad weather, I'm even more afraid of walking from the parking garage to my office building, and slipping and falling.
December 15, 2008 9:39 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

Well the GFS pretty much holds the same result as the NAM for most of the metro area.

However, the GFS is much weaker in its precip returns to the west and southwest in Kansas.
December 15, 2008 9:41 PM
 

mamaof3girls said:

I believe...I believe......I believe that snow line will stop just south of me and I will get 6 inches of snow...LOLOL, there I said it!!!!! Now it has to happen, :o) Come on...it has been 2 years since we got a good snow down here. I am not worried about the ice yet.....
Monica
in a hope-to-be snowy Pleasanton, KS   :o)
December 15, 2008 9:41 PM
 

Kailyn said:

Not only is Gary in town/working, he is also wearing a snow tie!
December 15, 2008 9:42 PM
 

weatherwyco said:

Good Evening Gary-

I forgot to post this last night...But man oh man...What an interesting weather day we had yesterday in KCK. Got a high temp of 60.8 at 9:59 A.M. and then at 10:04 A.M. we dropped to 46.0. Here is a quick look at an hour time lapse.

09:59 60.8 °F / 16.0 °C 49.4 °F / 9.7 °C 29.59in / 1001.9hPa NW 17.0mph / 27.4km/h
10:04 46.0 °F / 7.8 °C 32.1 °F / 0.1 °C 29.59in / 1001.9hPa NW 14.8mph / 23.8km/h
10:09 41.5 °F / 5.3 °C 30.7 °F / -0.7 °C 29.59in / 1001.9hPa North 9.6mph / 15.4km/h
10:14 39.4 °F / 4.1 °C 28.2 °F / -2.1 °C 29.65in / 1003.9hPa North 10.3mph / 16.6km/h
10:19 37.9 °F / 3.3 °C 27.6 °F / -2.4 °C 29.65in / 1003.9hPa NW 7.4mph / 11.9km/h
10:24 36.9 °F / 2.7 °C 26.6 °F / -3.0 °C 29.65in / 1003.9hPa North 12.5mph / 20.1km/h
10:29 35.1 °F / 1.7 °C 25.2 °F / -3.8 °C 29.68in / 1005.0hPa NNW 14.8mph / 23.8km/h
10:34 34.0 °F / 1.1 °C 24.5 °F / -4.2 °C 29.68in / 1005.0hPa NNW 13.0mph / 20.9km/h
10:39 33.8 °F / 1.0 °C 25.1 °F / -3.8 °C 29.68in / 1005.0hPa NNE 10.7mph / 17.2km/h
10:44 33.4 °F / 0.8 °C 24.4 °F / -4.2 °C 29.68in / 1005.0hPa North 9.2mph / 14.8km/h
10:49 33.3 °F / 0.7 °C 24.5 °F / -4.2 °C 29.68in / 1005.0hPa NW 10.7mph / 17.2km/h
10:54 32.0 °F / 0.0 °C 22.3 °F / -5.4 °C 29.68in / 1005.0hPa NW 6.9mph / 11.1km/h
10:59 31.5 °F / -0.3 °C 21.8 °F / -5.7 °C 29.71in / 1006.0hPa NE 14.8mph / 23.8km/h

So from 60 to below freezing in 1 hour! One of the strongest cold fronts I can remember in Kansas City in my 26 years! Looking forward to the snowfall tonight, and I am wondering if maybe more moisture will be brought into this storm system possibly giving us more snowfall then what is currently forecast. This will be one of those times that having the temperatures this cold will really ring out all the moisture in the air and really up those snow ratios! As for Thursday’s storm system...it still looks interesting, but like Bill said Thursday might as well be 6 weeks away in the weather world, but I would expect with the snowfall on the ground from tonight to the north and south of us, that temps will struggle to get above freezing, possibly setting the stage for an ice storm of some sorts near the Kansas City area. But like last year 1 degree can make all the difference in the world!
Currently sitting at 9 here in KCK with a morning low of 2.12 that occurred at 6:58 this morning..A very cold morning and day for sure! It will be interesting to see that once the snowfall begins to fall if the temps begin to rise overnight ever so slightly!

Have a good evening and looking forward to more updates!!

Bryan
December 15, 2008 9:43 PM
 

shoedog said:

Weatherjaded, talk of 8 inches is not being done by Gary.  It is taking an extreme view of moisture and snow/moisture ratios.  Gary's forecast is 2-5 inches for the metro area.  After the last couple winters I do understand your concerns for dryslot though.

Plenty of moisture.  Who knows the first storm tracked farther south then first predictions, if this does as well, maybe it will be the opposite of last year.  Fun stuff either way.
December 15, 2008 9:43 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

Lol Monica... hope you get your wish.

Just wish it wasn't so frigid.. I know can't have it both ways.  I want some snow too.
December 15, 2008 9:44 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

As I thought, Things are shifting south!!
December 15, 2008 9:45 PM
 

bewild79 said:

15 minutes!!!!!
December 15, 2008 9:46 PM
 

twister11 said:

i was watchin 5 for giggles. Katie couldn't wait to show that new map with ME getting 7 inches. she hypes out the ying yang.
December 15, 2008 9:50 PM
 

Braysmama said:

Up to an inch possible-doesn't look too good!
December 15, 2008 9:50 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

Twister, what is ME??
December 15, 2008 9:53 PM
 

MikeB said:

Can some weather guru please explain exactly what Gary means by an advection pattern?
December 15, 2008 9:53 PM
 

bewild79 said:

twister....no mention of who they are just  "the other guys" =)
December 15, 2008 9:53 PM
 

weatherwyco said:

twister 11,

Just make sure you leave out other weather forecasters name from the blog, just call it the "other station" .

;-)
December 15, 2008 9:53 PM
 

RickMckc said:

Hey twister11 ... no names or channels, remember?
December 15, 2008 9:55 PM
 

RonS said:

shall we get out the snow sleds and saucers and tubes? I am a teacher who likes snow days as badly as any of my fourth graders.

Now for the coating of snow, good enough to slide down a long hill......

I too will be watching at 10.  : )
December 15, 2008 9:56 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

Bryan

WOW.. and thanks I was following your weather station on wunderground.  I am in KCK also, but closer to WalMart on State.  We were a couple degrees warmer than you were throughout the day..
December 15, 2008 9:57 PM
 

jreeder said:

The 700 VV will generally bullseyes the heaviest snow (but it can and often is associated with 700 vv's), but with such cold air in place at the surface, the 500 and 300 levels are the levels to watch for wind maxes, upper level divergence and vorticity maximums, thus causing the moisture transport and lift at the lower levels.  The models do move one vort peice just north of KC tomorrow early pm.  My point with the last post was that with such deep cold air in place, along with the fact that both models were showing .20 precip on the 18z runs, and obvious model trends should have been the clue to seriously question a 1" snow forecast.
December 15, 2008 9:58 PM
 

C in Raymore said:

keep us updated on what gary says for those of us unable to watch!
December 15, 2008 10:00 PM
 

farmgirl said:

I'm gonna do the no snow dance. Otherwise it will be day 4 for three of my 5 horses that have been stalled since Saturday. I was hoping to turn the geriatric horses and a young one out tomorrow. Doesn't look like it now, and if we get a lot of snow, then all critters will need hay instead of the preferred pastures.

Geez, over the past couple of years I have had to feed more hay than normal from past winters here in KC and the stock tank heaters are being used more than usual. Why do I live here????
December 15, 2008 10:03 PM
 

weatherwyco said:

5kck martins..

It could be that I am in more of a rural area then you are of course. I have seen your weather station on Wunderground as well on 18th and State..right?


Bryan
December 15, 2008 10:05 PM
 

twister11 said:

I was watching * for giggles. ***** couldn't wait to show that map with me(Knob Noster) getting 7 inches.

Better? lol
December 15, 2008 10:05 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Darn, NWS just updated Linn County totals to 1-2 inches.

Mamaof3 looks like you might get your christmas wish early and be able to play in the snow with your girls. :)
December 15, 2008 10:07 PM
 

weatherwyco said:

twister11,

Much better! At least this will help keep the blog a happier place!

Bryan
December 15, 2008 10:08 PM
 

RickMckc said:

That's more like it! :)
December 15, 2008 10:10 PM
 

RickXTN said:

Oh, great... I'm off work tomorrow and wanting to go to sleep so I can wake up early but now I'm getting excited and probably will have a hard time getting to sleep.  Maybe I'll just leave my alarm clock set as normal (6am) and just plan to have an afternoon nap.  :-)

[crosses fingers and does a snow dance]
December 15, 2008 10:10 PM
 

Roberto said:

much :)
December 15, 2008 10:10 PM
 

sheldan said:

I am hopeful, but staying reserved at this time.  Want to be surprised, lol.  I happen to remember a significant ice storm in the mid eighties that closed Indep. schools for over a week.  So there was at least one that I remember.
December 15, 2008 10:12 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

Bryan..

No I'm not that one.. I'm between the two of you
December 15, 2008 10:17 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

ipushsnow might be a happy camper tomorrow! Maybe he will have some more snow to push than originally thought.
December 15, 2008 10:22 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Gary, when you say that the Artic Blast will be stronger than this one, do you mean stronger winds or colder temps?
December 15, 2008 10:25 PM
 

weatherjaded said:

2"-5" total widespread
December 15, 2008 10:27 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

I think the chances for ice are better than what people are saying.  I can feel it.  However even if you believe in ice coming for Thursday or any time you just cant announce it days in advance to the public.  The hysteria over ice is really extreme at times, and for good reason as we have just seen in some New England states with their ice storm.  I would guess the weather team for any station in Kansas City is approaching this with careful analysis.  

First storms first, we got tomorrow to be excited about!  Just like FIFO in business. First in, First out.  Always be prepared, and dont wait until the last minute to go get salt, sand, or a snow shovel.  Weather can be well predicted, but it can not be controlled.  
December 15, 2008 10:29 PM
 

Dwxtracker said:

Okay, so I'm in St. Louis, but heading home tomorrow for winter break, What did Gary say!!?!?
I would love to come home to snow on the ground.

David
December 15, 2008 10:30 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

This upcoming weekend could be colder.  Winds could be sustained about 20kts for a period of time post passage.
December 15, 2008 10:32 PM
 

mamaof3girls said:

Wooo hoooooo, I am smiling now!! I can not wait to wake the girls in the am to show them the snow. Fun fun!!! It will look so pretty against our Christmas decorations in the yard. This weekend looks really really cold. I am gonna have to take 2 sets of keys to work so I can warm up my vehicle in the am before I leave. Yikes!!!
In soon-to-be snowy Pleasanton, KS
Hee hee!!!!!
December 15, 2008 10:40 PM
 

Luthur said:

David -

Buy some water and food and expect the trip to take longer.  Be safe, friend.  Also, gas up.  This is nothing horrible, but be prepared.
December 15, 2008 10:43 PM
 

Matt P said:

Gary, what is your definition of "heavy snow"?  Being from a snowbelt location, I usually think of at least eight inches.  Also, what does Thursday's trip from Des Moines to KC look like?  thanks!
December 15, 2008 10:44 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

Des Moines to KC on Thursday...


YIKES!!


Doesnt sound like a good idea Matt...
December 15, 2008 10:51 PM
 

Dwxtracker said:

Luthur,
I'll be taking the bus, so don't have to worry about gas, but thanks for answering!

I see the NWS updated their WW advisories, now 2-5" for KC, and expanded to the south.

David
December 15, 2008 10:54 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

mattP heavy around here is oh..what maybe 5,6 inches? Gary mentioned it in another blog last week.  When I was stationed in Colorado they were measuring snow by the yardstick 45 minutes west of us.
December 15, 2008 10:55 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

David,

IT going to be NICE!!! 2-5" possible!! I think around 3-4" if the trend continues. COuld any T-Snow develop since it is WWA?
December 15, 2008 10:55 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

I think we need a Live Chat up... :)
December 15, 2008 10:57 PM
 

Carlos3652 said:

Well, im in Copper Mountain this week, and drove on Sat Night in Blizzard like conditions on I-70, we only got 8 inches but the wind was ridiculous... Kinda bummed im not in KC for the snow tomorrow, looks like at least 5 inches to me...

Weird thing is here in CM, Co... not alot of snow... yet, tonight we are supposed to get heavy snow (4-8 inches). Gary, I've talked to many people here and they say its the coldest they remember it being in quite sometime... last night at 8pm it was -11...

Anyways, love your guy's blog, and hopefully it can stay this active through Christmas... Im coming back on Sat... (Gary I know this is far out, but what is it looking like driving wise on I-70 from Denver to KC on Sat)...

Thanks again!

December 15, 2008 11:01 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

I'm a happy camper, I'm hopin for more than the 3.5 inches that Gary put up though. but I will however take the 3.5. As for thursday. I agree with some of the other bloggers that with snow pack north, here, and south of us it will be difficult to reach the critical 32 on thursday. It will be interesting to say the least. I will take as much freezing rain as possible and then have it stop right before everything breaks. lol
December 15, 2008 11:02 PM
 

Kcchamps said:

December 15, 2008 11:21 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

kcchamps what selection under precip are you using?  6, 12, or 24h?
December 15, 2008 11:34 PM
 

Kcchamps said:

go down to snowfall, and select cat. snofall amt.
December 15, 2008 11:40 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

Kcchamps, no go look at "cond prop freezing.  Then when the map comes up click on thursday 00 and work up a few.  You can see it is right over KS, or is presumed to be for that date.
December 15, 2008 11:51 PM
 

Kcchamps said:

December 16, 2008 12:02 AM
 

dkdm said:

I feel like a kid on Christmas morning...can't sleep so jazzed about the snow.  I am truly a weather geek!!!  
December 16, 2008 12:08 AM
 

Allie said:

I am hoping for lots of snow... we could all use a snow day!!
December 16, 2008 12:23 AM
 

Kailyn said:

I hear you about the sleep...I leave for work at 6:30 A. ...cutting it very close for cancellations.  I work at JCCC and if the Shawnee Misssion school district closes then so does the college.  I have a feeling I'll have to go in when it's not so bad then have to drive back home when it is... SIGHHH
December 16, 2008 12:23 AM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

I talked to a woman with my home warrenty today about my cranky furnance. She is in Maine and they got struck by the big ice storm over there. Her husband I guess works for the electric company? All I know is that he had to work outside trying to get people back on line when they lost all power from the ice storm there. Gotta suck!
December 16, 2008 12:44 AM
 

Nick Rau said:

Well it looks like it might get fun around here, might have trouble sleeping thinking about tomorrow... well I will find a way!!  BTW congrats to Bill on whooping the computer models;)
December 16, 2008 12:57 AM
 

imajhawk said:

I knew it! I just knew that the LRC hadn't taken a storm like this up into N. Iowa at the beginning of the cycle! Yes!!! I Love the LRC!!!
December 16, 2008 1:48 AM
 

Tabitha said:

We have light snow falling in Colony, KS.  Started about 15 minutes ago.  :)

******************

Keep us updated today.

Jeremy

December 16, 2008 2:19 AM
 

W0XDL said:

Nothing in east Independence yet.  This might be a weird morning/day.  Oh well...time to ride the wave.

DL
December 16, 2008 4:18 AM
 

KansasPatriot said:

4:30am it is snowing! Not sure when it started here exactly but it appears to have just started...could be wrong.  It is a slow gentle snow with about a 10th of an inch.  Lightly covered the sidewalk.
December 16, 2008 4:30 AM
 

deltagbear said:

Looks like it started snowing here in olathe just after 3am!  woohoo!  Lets hope for at least 3" today.

*********************

I think 3" is good total for your area today.

Jeremy

December 16, 2008 4:32 AM
 

5kckmartins said:

its quarter till 5 here...  looks like we're just starting to get a steady snow....

will update later..now back to alegbra n web design

yaaaaaaawn
December 16, 2008 4:45 AM
 

W0XDL said:

Light snow in Independence.  I just heard Christa say that Blue Springs Schools have closed for today.  Hmmmmmmmm

DL

************************

I think that is correct.

Jeremy

December 16, 2008 5:28 AM
 

W0XDL said:

Thanks, Jeremy:)
December 16, 2008 5:33 AM
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