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Im excited for this next storm. Here at Avila University I would say we have a good 3.5 inches of snow

Just measured in Grain Valley, A solid 2.5-3inch snow.

just wanted to get in that we have about 4 inches here in St. Joe as of 11 a.m.

Where's the best spot to measure, I get 2 1/2 inches in the drive way and 3 even in the grass here in So Olathe (151st and Ridgeview) still snowing lightly

Looks like 3.5" at the east end of the Shoal Creek golf course in KC North (near Liberty.)  I measured in three places in an open, grassless field and got 3.5 each time.  Almost exactly what Gary predicted.  I think he might have been a tenth of an inch off (for shame ;-) )

back yard and deck average comes out to be 2.1"  unplowed roads come out to 3.1"

3 inches in Piper, KS

Jeremy/Gary

I have 2.9 inches here in Lee's Summit...

2.3 inches in Lawrence is the grand total for me.

Leawood, 132nd Roe 2.25 inches

Wow, Nick must be in the right spot in St Joe. I have friends and relatives that live there and they are spread out in various locations but the highest total from them was a smidge over 3 inches and that was about 10 min ago.

I rewatched your Winter Forecast and it is amazing to see how right on you already were about things for December. So far the snow continues to accumulate in the same area's as last winter with alittle more falling for the Johnson County people this year. Of course ADog, me and FarmGirl (who is not unhappy about it I am sure) are missing out. Actually LaCygne has been getting more wintery stuff than me and that is only 12 miles north. I hope the next round in January is better to us. Looks like this next one on Thursday is to my north also. Bummer!! Oh well I guess the BB games and Christmas programs can continue on time, so that is good. Have a great day!! Stay safe and warm.
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

Can someone tell me what a good way to measure snow is?  Then I can send in a total for Raytown!  Thanks

2.6 inches in Chillicothe so far.

I just talked with my uncle who lives in the north east part of St Joe (Lake of 12 Oaks) and he measures a little more than 3.5 inches and still snowing he said. My parents live in Albany, Mo so I am going to check with them later today.

sheldan said:
Can someone tell me what a good way to measure snow is?  Then I can send in a total for Raytown!  Thanks
December 16, 2008 11:20 AM

I think you're supposed to take three measurements in a relatively open, undrifted area, then average them.  If there is high grass underneath it can exaggerate the measurement.  Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

I just measured 3 inches at  N.52nd and leavenworth Rd in Kansas City , KS

weatherjaded,
I knew alot of jeremys there so I am not sure.

Little over 3in here in parkville...

Crossing fingers that it will be below freezing!! I don't want any melting going on!

Gary:

Good mid morning-what a great snowy morning!! The snow has actually picked back up a bit here in SW Lawrence. Right around 3 inches here-just went out an measured after proctoring a final-with the help of some very enthusiastic students!!

Well, Thursday has Brandon Fraser in Mummy II in my head: Here we go again!! I love it-another event to follow and learn!!!

Have a great day-off to grade and then hopefully play in some snow this afternoon!!

Bill in Lawrence

so Thursday is an evening thing? just trying to figure out if i will be able to go to the doctors

I am Issuing a ICE STORM WATCH for Thursday until further notice

The only problem with this weather is people do have family traveling from out of town this week and safety is a big concern so people who love this weather need to keep that in mind and driving behind people who go to slow can be a hazard.  Just some food for thought.

Well Nick is right on I just measured at 11:45 and had with three measurements 4.3 now still lite snow falling may get to 4.5 but there is grapple mixed in now packing it down.  8 degrees wind picking up if it clears out how cold will it be tonite with snow 200 miles all around you??  

NO MELTING! We have to hold onto what we have here or at least add to it for a White Christmas. What are the chances Gary?

2.5'' in Olathe at Olathe Northwest HS.

Thanks JoeKC, I will give it a shot!

we have between 3 and 4 inches at the fort...its actually snowing heavier now than it did about an hour ago when the radar echoes were still over us.  weird...i will go out and measure when it stops snowing hard.  i would say probably about 3 1/4" just by looking at it.  

btw...for those who were asking how to measure..its not very windy this time around so drifts arent really a problem.  what i will do is take 5 measurements and throw out the highest and lowest totals, then find the mean of the other three.

Things are starting to ice over out here off of K-10 and Ridgeview.   The cars in the parking lot have a nice layer of ice and the sidewalks that were cleared off are hazardous!

Here at Strasburg MO, Cass county we are at 18.8 degrees and about an inch and a half of snow.  

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 p.m. I don't know if they extended it or if it was always until 6 p.m.

3.5 in in plattewoods

In my part of Lee's Summit, I measure 1.75".
Adam, just curious, how do you come up with 2.9"?  
I got blasted here before for actually coming up with correct measurements just because everyone else uses even fractions.
When measured properly in three different locations not effected by modern man (and most people actually don't have those), you take the average and one can actually come to within 100th of an inch.
The precip ratio for this storm was 1:19 according to the NWS.  If you have the proper rain gauge you can measure the melted snow, do the math and come up with a snow measurement--or at least use that against what one measures in the yard.

4.25 ,3 miles NOrth of Leavenworth and still snowing some

Below is an official statement from NWS 3.8 real near to my 4.3 better than last year hopefully officially we get 4 inches.

THROUGH 1130 AM 3.8 INCHES OF SNOW HAD FALLEN IN ST JOSEPH AND 3.5 INCHES IN CAMERON.

fine grainy sand falling now.

PvtMurphy ... noticing the same thing here in  the Northland - radar echoes down to almost nothing but snow is increasing.

Anyone care to offer a meteorological explanation?

GaryB,

2.9 was the high water mark. Maybe I should have gone with the avearge of 2.5 in my yard.

2.9 was on the side of my house, where "some" drifting probably occurred. I measured in 7 different spots. My average was, 2.5

I promise im being truthful.

Pleasant Hill had this to say in there latest Wx advisory update...


A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES OF SNOW WAS MEASURED ON THE
PLAZA IN DOWNTOWN KANSAS CITY...OLATHE AND IN UNITY VILLAGE NEAR LEES
SUMMIT.


So 2.5 at my house is not a lie...

I have about 2.5 inches at my house in Blue Springs just west of Grain Valley.  That puts my total to 6.25 inches for the season.  That is 2 storms with 2.5 inches now at my house.  

I am hoping that storm goes south on Thursday and we get snow and not ice.  

Right at 2 inches - measured i several places on deck and 2-3 places in the back yard - all right at 2 inches - Grandview, near the high school!  

It is still snowing here in Lee's Summit. It is a small fine type of snow. The way it is dancing around, it reminds me of a snow globe.

This steady light snow that keeps falling in Blue Springs has whitened my driveway back up and I wouldn't be surprised if I had another .25 inches of snow before its all said in done.  I measured before I shoveled my driveway over 2 hours ago.  

NWS radar shows more light snow coming up I35 towards the area, maybe more light accumulations??

4" in North Smithville

2.5 inches in Raytown

measured again and I was ranging between 3-4 all were flat surfaces away from trees and houses and we did not have anything measurable on the ground from previous.  So I am not so sure what the exact is.  It is still snowing though...

What a day. I wasn't happy that school was cancelled on a day I had to report for jury duty. Anyhow, just got home and measured the snow and came up between 4.25 and 4.50 inches of snow. It is still snowing but I doubt we get any more than 4 1/2 inches. The roads are a mess though.  Now that this is about over, I'm intnerested in seeing what Thursday will bring.  

looks like there is redevelopment, higher totals?

RickMckc said:
PvtMurphy ... noticing the same thing here in  the Northland - radar echoes down to almost nothing but snow is increasing.

Anyone care to offer a meteorological explanation?
December 16, 2008 12:23 PM

No explanation, but I'm seeing the same thing in the Northland/Shoal Creek

Bewild79,
 If you are still around the last name is Rodecap

Ha - I love to see the banter between Garyb and Adam.  The difference between 1.75 and 2.50 at 19:1 would yield - .039 inches of precip.   Good luck with that gentlemen!

Really..  I measured about 2 inches in my sector of LS, so I don't think it is off either side.

Looking forward, I think it will be interesting to see what happens with this next shortwave and subsequent low.  Oddly, the various models have quite a few different solutions.

Should you want more snow potential, then you want to favor the SREF -
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref_matrix_hover.php?fhr=f069&startdate=2008121603&field=SREF_H5__

If you want to ensure that it stays WAY north and for sure is rain, then I recommend the dev_RUC
http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_dev/.//+sa5_p500mb+am+63

The GFS and NAM are about right, but think with this fresh snow and the need to factor in a few environmental changes, and --gasp-- a LRC trend I am noticing, I could see it going closer to the SREF...

But it is too early yet as things even now are having a bit of an issue initializing to its most effective.  It will be fun to watch!

4 inches on the campus of Kansas State in Manhattan!

TeacherInStJoe thanks you confirmed my 4.3 hoping for 4.5.  Did you get picked??  

There does appear to be some redevelopment SW on I-35 in KS and by Topeka....we will see.

1 " or more here on the University of Missouri campus in Columbia. Snow is still coming down too...watching Thursday very very carefully...it could come down to a matter of 100 miles or less...i will keep you updated with my thoughts after my final tonight and the 00z data

weatherjaded,
had to look at my yearbook, I remember both of you.  More aquatinces (spelling?) than anything.  I was a choir geek so most of the people I was around were from the choir.  Neat to see someone I kinda know in here though! =)

I have freezing rain falling now. Huh? They just called to cancel our Christmas Program for tonight but the kids are all still in school. LOL! Weird I think!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

It is nice to see someone familiar!  Park Hill kicked out a couple of weather geeks anyway!

No I didn't get pick stjoeattorney. I wouldn't be home and able to enjoy some of the snow day otherwise.  As for NWS, I never agree with their measurements. I'd like t know where they are measuring or who is doing it because some days I think whoever took the measurement doesn't know how to read a ruler.

oh! And I don't really mean KICKED OUT.lol

3 inches here in Independence

For most of the metro area, Thursday contiunes to look not that bad.

Maybe some issues in the morning, but nothing earth shattering.

Here is what they say...

FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH NORTHWARD
INTO WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
CHANGE THE FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN.

Sorry, "they" meaning the NWS office in Pleasant Hill...

Adam......why didn't you post the rest??

HOWEVER...NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL
REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE RATHER COMPLICATED AS COLDER AIR OOZES SLOWLY BACK INTO
SOUTHEAST...SO TIMING THE CHANGE OVER BACK TO FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
DIFFICULT. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL THAT SOME AREAS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA COULD RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. HOWEVER...PERSONS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO RELAY SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS AS THEY OCCUR.

Well I took more  measurements, not a lot of wind, but the powdery nature of the snow still has allowed it to blow around decently, I have taken several measurements and I would say I got close to 5 inches as my best guestimate, in a residential area it is hard to find areas that wont be "polluted" with extra snow coming off roofs, and areas where the wind would scour the snow to lower levels than average accum.  I also took the dog for a walk earlier and MAN is this a cold storm with a "South Dakota" like snow texture.

still a  very fine snow coming down by the way.

Scott, I don't really see any chance of snow Thursday, at least not this far south. Too much WAA associated with the storm. Even pushing the storm farther south would just lead to rain. I've noticed so far this fall/early winter that the warm air advection has been pretty strong for the most part, so I'm expecting mostly rain.

Im with you Andrew. I think its gonna be a ice storm not to alarm anyone but with all the snow on the ground now it should keep the cold temps on the surface. Just my theory about 2.5 inches here in wellington Mo. Im not trying to alarm anyone i personally hope for a big snowstorm. Not like this a 6-8 inch snow. Oh well

I think we just need to wait a bit and see what track this storm is going to take, it is not set in stone yet. Just yesterday we though completely different about todays storm.

Adam, I am not convinced yet based on the model spreads.

JHAWK23,

It will be close. I just think this WAA(Warm Air Advection) will be so strong, that our area will be spared.

PLEASE REMEMBER THIS IS JUST MY PERSONAL OPINION. The weather team may very well feel compeltely different than me...lol

I am a meteorological hobbyist and avid storm chaser. Just like many other bloggers on this site.

A shift of 100 miles to the south, which very well could happen, would put the whole metro area in a world of trouble.

My humble opinion is that just wont happen.


Now, lets look at the other side of the coin. I do have these thoughts as well.


Both the NAM and especially the GFS continue to advertise extreme WAA over the area beginning Wednesday night. In fact, the GFS would advertise highs in the 50's here on Thursday! Wow...

At last check, temps in SC TX are still holding in the mid 30's with 18 degrees at my location in Lee's Summit. Also, DFW is still in the mid to upper 20's at this hour. I am very curious with the snowpack now in place all the way down near ICT and SGF, exactly how far the front will retreat north, and whether or not this low actually tracks further south than currently projected.

EAX as well as SGF seem to be downplaying the potential.

I am tending to agree with them, but I cant wait to see what this setup looks like at 9 p.m. tomorrow night.


I also do hope for exciting whether, but Im just not seeing it at this time. If i lived in SC Iowa, id be concerned right now.

Question is, will it shift south AGAIN??

Its now 2 for 2 in the shifting south department so far this season.... ;)

kcwxguy,
i am leaning towards the low drifting to the south. is this the way you are leaning or are leaning towards the above freezing line moving north or do you think a particular *** storm is setting up...

Thats also what I was thinking sweeteness, we have 3 inches of snow on the ground in Blue Springs which can prohibit the warming of temperatures. Last year we had something similar, thought maybe the temps would warm up and they did just enough, the difference is there was nothing prohibiting the warming. So many things can change, I want to see a couple more model runs to look at the track of this and see if they are still showing all the warm air being brought in.

I think here in KC we will stay cold enough for it to be all freezing rain to tell you the truth, just dont see how it could get warm enough for rain

4.0" in Kearney

Olathe North HS: 2.5-3.0 I measured average is about 2.75"

I wouldn't count my eggs before they hatch with Thursdays storm. I would take Pleasant hills HWO with a grain of salt too since it changes on a regular basis. It will all come down to the temp's at the surface and with all the snow cover, it could very well be a major ice storm. The model spreads are too great to go with one or the other. I wouldn't be surprised to see the models all trend further south such as todays snow event. Either way, Thursday will be interesting.

2.75" at Falcon Ridge in Lenexa

We are up to 3 inches in West Lawrence, and still a fine light snow is falling, too light to even show up on the radar.

We are up to 3 inches in West Lawrence, and still a fine light snow is falling, too light to even show up on the radar.

4" just southwest of downtown Lawrence.

I think there is some freezing drizzle here on Wornall rd

Miami - 82 Degrees

Guys, the 3 inches of snow is not as big a factor as you think. The snow is very dry so there's not a whole lot of moisture involved, and therefore not much of a heat sink.

And everyone keeps saying what a huge "spread" there is in the models. I'm not really seeing that. Sure there is some variation, but both NAM and GFS show rain here, not much ice and certainly not snow.

Remember how quickly the cold air moved in on Sunday? Warm air can move in quickly too...

We've got about 3 inches...maybe a little more depending on where you measure on the KU campus, and it's still snowing. There aren't any radar echoes over Lawrence, but it's still definitely snowing.

I've got a feeling that Thursday's storm is going to go just far enough south to give us a major ice problem. Just with the way things are working out right now, I just don't see the low staying this far north, or shooting all the way down to Texas. I'm thinking that it'll hit the perfect spot to give us a real nice coating on top of all this. But again...it is all just a feeling.

Went up .25" from the continued light snow near Barry Rd. & N. Oak in the Northland - now up to 3" from today's storm with drifts to 4.25" on areas I did not shovel last night before this snow.

I am not going to even try to guess what will happen thursday! Like Bill says, that might as well be 6 weeks out! As far as todays weather is concerned, mammaof3, I just dont think that it is our year for snow!

jeremy, measured 3.8" at the fort.  its still snowing, but i bet the accums are done.  seasonal total is up to 5.6" now.  

Haven't measured again, it's still snowing -Audrey's Sibley report

lol...I think most people are going with the, "snow on the ground making it not get so warm",  aproach..lol I still don't know what to think..maybe it will start out as freezing rain and turn to rain...

Recent forecasts from HPC show only a 10% chance of significant ice near the MO/IA border...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_pice_gt_25.gif

Great job on the predictions!!!  We measured in OP 3 inches.

My guess is whatever is going to happen is going to happen and there's nothing any of us can do to stop it.

Good Day Gary and Bloggers....

It is Two O'clock and things have finally quit here in South Kansas City, just some very light snow, almost a drizzle coming down.

Officially from here at Children International.... Red Bridge and Blue River Road we have 2 inches of snow..... Very pretty out there.... drive safe.

Sam Davidson - Faciltiy Manager
Children International - aka Suburban Sam!

It's still a little too early to call , but with the surface temps as cold as they are there is no doubt that it will freeze upon contact if the current patterns stay consistant in the morning hours on Thursday, as the morning temps should be in the mid 20's at sunrise. This will most likley place a nice ice glaze on everything for a couple hours. Then in the mid afternoon it may be above freezing by just enough to melt and thaw a little bit.  But remember a change of a couple degrees will make all the difference in the world, as the ground temps have been very cold for the past few days. And that shif of a few degrees will make a difference of a glaze of ice and a coating of .50 to 1 inch of ice. There are a couple varriables to consider.

1. If the dry air mass will overide the warmer air mass with the moisture , and kill it.  We saw that several times last year around this time. At the pressent time, there is a nice high pressure systerm in texas today, but if you look west, you will see two nice low pressure systems pushing their way through. If that high pressure is overridden, then it will suck out much of the moisture and we may just get flurries or a dusting.  Again it depends on how strong these systems are and who is stronger.

2.   If the high pressure would dominate on thursday, we may see temps in the lower to mid 30's. and just above freezing. At even 34-35 degrees, the rain will eventually begin to thaw out the ground and start to stablize the ground temps a little, it will just be slushy and messy. The temps would not drop all that much throughout the day and night possibly only dropping to about 32 or 33 deg., which would not be dramatic enough to cause any problems.  However the two systems may provide a perfect combo of the perfect set up for a significant ice storm.  The atmosphere needs to be suturated with moisture and the temp needs to be about  31 to 32 degrees or so.  Not too dry but moist enough to fuel the system.

In short I'll say this.  Here is my prediction.  I think we'll have a small change in the forcast tonight, then it will get modifided again Wednesday night,then we'll get hammered on Thursday.  I believe that the two systems in play will change and blow a system up from Oklahomoa into Wichita in the early morning Thursday. With anough moisture in the air, around the 9am time we could start seeing some issues.  I don't think the temps will warm that much above freezing. This will be a tough one to dial in,  but I'm going with least .05 to an inch of ice.  

Guess we'll see what happens RDub, but I dont see that happening

One thing to consider is that this is a very fast moving system. Its very hard to forecast movements further north or south with a system with that type of eastward progression until 12-24 hours before it impacts our region. We really won't have a solid Idea till 00z tomorrow eve but it is fun to fantasy-cast this one..LOL.

4.2" as of 2:00pm in trenton

Chillicothe with about 4inches.  Its still snowing as of 2:15

good point rdub.  there is a lot of wishful thinking going into the thought that the low might arc further south.  although there is enough snow to create an inversion by itself, not even including the arctic air in place.  and the last couple storms have indeed dug a bit further south as well...so, it could go either way.  i think it will most likey start out as rnfz but eventually change over to rn.  so the question is, when does the bulk of the precip fall? with snow already on tree limbs and powerlines, it wouldnt take much rain to weigh them down.  

will the skies clear out tonight? if they do, the temps will fall like a rock.  will there be light winds tomorrow morning? if there is, then sublimation will take over and create stratoform clouds-insulating us-and providing a barrier from wamer air aloft advecting down to the surface...since its natural inclination is for warm air to rise over colder air anyhow...

this is a very unpredictable setup.  i am positive that this setup has gone all three ways in the history of KC.  warming wins out and all rain is the result.  cold air gets stuck at the surface and we have icing, and the storm follows the baroclinic zone which is way further south than the models are predicting and snow is the result.  

Hope the weather is right and the ice stays away.. snow may be pretty but ice is no fun at all..

Nick and St Joeteacher I just measured in the middle of a park, parking lot and two streets.  All right at just at 4.8 inches where I am confirming what you have.  The wind bites as well.

As to Adam Penny I agree 2 for 2 on moving south a pattern just the opposite of last year when they moved north . . . TH will nove south as well and STJ will be in sleet FRZ then SLT ans SN all day but again not much moisture only .40 to .60 inches.  

A word to the wise. We are not out of the woods yet today. Though the snow has stopped there is a nasty freezing drizzle caking to windows and walks in Lee's Summit.
It is still very slick around town.

I have picked up another half an inch of snow from this light snow.  I am up near 3 inches for this storm in Blue Springs

I think it's pretty likely that we will start with freezing rain, but I don't really see a big accumulation happening. Even with some cold air trapped at the surface, the warmer rain falling into it will cause the temps to rise and change it all to rain.

pvt_murphy  do not forget last year for those up north on the ic storm 53 weeks ago followed by 46.8 inches of snow.

Scott, Thanks for helping me prove my point (.39").  It does make a difference.

either my predictions / observations have gone unoticed, or soemone is taking their time in deconstructing everthing I wrote.  I feel like a ghost in here.

i remeber stjoeattorney...i dont think that will happen this year, but you never know!

just to play devils advocate...the topeka nws believes that the battle ground for thursday will be around the I-70 corridor.

Just got done shoveling my driveway -- UGH!!

We "officially" got 2.7 inches at my house in Lee's Summit.

I'm now off to enjoy some hot cocoa and read my book by the fireplace...

Cozy Wishes to All!!

Good afternoon everybody!! Not much luck this afternoon grading those finals LOL!! Too much fun messing around in the snow!!

I remeasured at my house and with what I got at school (my school is about a mile as the crow flies from my humble abode) SW Lawrence picked up 3 beautiful inches of snow!! The LJWorld is reporting 3 1/2 downtown Lawrence so maybe I am bit conserative, but I will stick with my 3 inches-and love every inch of it!! LOL

Regarding Thursday: I think tomorrow will tell the tale as one observes temperatures from around the region. A few random thoughts that as always, i hope make a little sense:

1. One interesting thing of note is that on the latest surface observations, the Oklahoma Panhandle and Texas Panhandle has warmed into the mid 40's today. For sure, there is not a snow pack there like there is from here into northern Oklahoma as small as it is.

2. I also wonder that as this warm air begins to ride up over the small snow pack and the colder air at the surface if we do not develop a low cloud deck ahead of the storm and if that would play any role in surface temps.

3. I also wonder just how cold we really get tonight-I think this snow band will leave some moisture behind and we may not have optimum conditions for cooling-i.e. maybe we don't bottom tonight.

4. There also is not a high pressure in place to our north to help lock the cold in so the cold air we have now is fighting on its own-there are no reenforcements between now and Thursday.

5. Finally, after living here most of my life, I have learned thing one in winter: never bet against WAA-9 times out of 10 it will eat a snow pack like PacMan eating the dots and have the arctic air for desert. Not always, but many a time the WAA has won especially when there is not a high pressure to the North helping to reenforce the cold.

Tomorrow will be interesting to follow for sure and see where the temps. go-I see very little grading being done tomorrow as well!!! LOL Will be interesting to see what the 0z runs show tonight. One thing that has caught my eye is the front Saturday/Sunday and the possible wave riding up it-the 0z Euro had something like that this morning.

Have a great afternoon everybody-one thing for sure, Gary, Jeremy, and Jeff (Brett is on vaction I think) will provide the best forecast in the area!!!

Bill enjoying the snow in Lawrence

Hey Gary,

I havnt measured, but I would say 3-4 inches here in Marceline. Now it is all freezing drizzle, and it is getting slick outside! My trucks hood already has a decent coating of ice on it.

Alex

Here in Lenexa at 79th & Lackman we had 2.75" measured in two flat open areas on my driveway.

Sorry pvt_murphy-you already pointed out 2-3 of my points-sorry for redundancy!!!

Brian1234: I think you brough up some excellent points!!

Bill in Lawrence

GaryB,

I will certainly try to a better job next event when reporting totals. Im sorry that you feel that I was being dishonest.

I promise you, I am truthful and honest as they come. I just want to be an honorable member of this blog.


However, FWIW, you misqouted Scott.

He said, "Ha - I love to see the banter between Garyb and Adam.  The difference between 1.75 and 2.50 at 19:1 would yield - .039 inches of precip.   Good luck with that gentlemen!"

It was .039 not .39. That does make a huge difference.

;)

Pretty much final total is 2.2"  3"in grassy areas, not sure if this should be averaged.  I got the first total twice in the drive.  Sibley

Rdub -

"And everyone keeps saying what a huge "spread" there is in the models. I'm not really seeing that. Sure there is some variation, but both NAM and GFS show rain here, not much ice and certainly not snow. "

If you are just looking at the GFS and NAM, you are accurate.  I linked other models that do show a signficant variance of location in the shortwave.

GaryB, please re-read.  It equated to .039, not .39...  

I think the precip pattern has been pretty consistent lately driving me to my thoughts of a southward trend.  In addition, time and time again, I see these types of shortwaves dig a bit more than expected.

Will it happen?  Not sure, but would be more inclined to lean that direction.  All in all, we all are looking at an impact of a shortwave, which by setup is a bit more difficult to forecast due to scale and more influence from other impacting factors.

Enjoying the snow today, and will worry about Thurs at 0Z tonight at the earliest.

Thanks bill, I appreciate the feeback and reading your observations as well. best wishes and stay warm out there.  oh by the way, not all of my post was copied and pasted correctly, there was actually a little joke at the end.  but looking at the incomplete post, it makes me look like a child throwing a tantrum in the corner, which is actually funnier than what my joke was...lol

I think it is AWESOME that so many read and respond to the blog!!!!!
I am also a teacher and was surprised to get the 6 AM call for no school...when I looked out it was just lightly snowing, but when I got back up, I could see why they called school off.  It was a good call.  All the surrounding districts were letting out early when the snow was still falling and roads were a mess!!!!

When I went out to measure I had 4.5 inches on Pickett Road.  The snow was not hard to shovel..just a lot of it and it was sleeting while I was shoveling...it was hitting me in the face and it hurt! :-)

OK...back to enjoying my snow day...need to enjoy the rest of it! Everyone be safe if you have to travel and let's keep tuned in to what is going to happen on Thursday.  Two days off in the same week?!?!?

Brian in Snowy St. Joseph, MO  

sorry to say this but are you guys actually arguing over % points??....lol  please let comon sense prevail and don't make a mountain our of a mole hill.  It's obvious what he ment.

Hi Gary and team...I just measured here in Hiawatha, Kansas and had about 5.5 inches and still snowing fat flakes....yay! Even though I had to drive 1.5 hours one way to work when it normally takes 40...

lol Adam! I caught that too but I decided not to say anything..I did think that Scott wrote .039...lol

After talking of Winter Storm Watches yesterday, SGF is now calling for mostly rain in their area.

They are growing confidence that the front will clear their forecast area at the least.


THERE STILL REMAINS A
SMALL CAVEAT THAT THE COLD AIRMASS COULD BE SLOWER TO MOVE
NORTH...THUS CAUSING A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF FREEZING PRECIP.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE.


They are now even talking about severe weather thursday and thursday evening!!

WOW!!

THE GFS IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE
WITH MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...AND WOULD
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THIS
SOLUTION SEEMS SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY DUE TO THE CONDITIONS IN PLACE
AND THEIR LIKELY EVOLUTION.


So they went from mentioning a possible Winter Storm Watch for their area yesterday, to mentioning now possible severe weather(however unlikely it is) is just fascinatiing to me!


I think this just goes to show how powerful this warm air will really be....

Liberal in the far SW part of KS is reporting 46 at this hour...

Brownsville, TX is reporting 43 degrees at this hour....

Perhaps the cold air mass will be in place a little longer than anticipated...

Gary and the weather team have also changed their stance on this since Monday...

Gary on Monday--"Right now we believe that the warm air will win"
Gary on Tuesday--"It  is in the teens all the way into north Texas this morning. This cold air mass will have a hard time being moved out by our next storm due in Thursday."

I think I will defer to the weather team, et al...before I believe the NWS...

Back outside to enjoy the snow!

Fred

Loca; 5" in my yard, (although I think it had a lot of drifting) so

3.5-4" at JoCo Airport!

Afternoon weather team..  WOW what a drive home from Overland Park...   Anyway got home only to find out that my Huskies decided to go for a run by themselves..  Thank goodness that they are well trained and came back when commanded to by the kids...

Anyways, we had about 3 inches here in Grandview...

I just read the Hazardous Weather Outlook and the Forecast Discussion on the NWS web site.  In regard to Thursday, the folks in  P Hill seem to be expecting cold enough temperatures at the surface for the morning to be a freezing rain event.  

I remember one time back in the mid 1980's (as a HS kid) that we had no school due to freezing rain in the AM and then it turned to all rain and washed the ice away.  Turned out to be a decent day to go running around.

I am anxious to hear what the Weather Team predict.  What a ride!

DL

From Topeka NWS
THINK ADVECTION WILL BRING AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT NORTHERN
AREAS MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO BE TOO WARM ALOFT TO
SUPPORT SNOWFALL FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE EVENT...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
TEMPS WARMING TO THE POINT OF SUPPORTING UPRIGHT CONVECTION IN
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE SCALE
LIFT ALOFT WILL WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING
AS A 100KT 500MB JET STREAK ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER TROF. MODELS
PROG THE DEEPEST MOISTURE TO BE IN PLACE BY THIS TIME...AND WILL
THUS INCREASE POPS FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL
ADVECT IN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...BRINGING MORE MIXED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN. WITH THE INCREASING LIFT...QPF TRENDS
ARE INCREASING...AND THE NEED FOR HEADLINES FOR THIS PERIOD SEEMS
TO BE INCREASING AS WELL.

billinlawrence said: "5. Finally, after living here most of my life, I have learned thing one in winter: never bet against WAA-9 times out of 10 it will eat a snow pack like PacMan eating the dots and have the arctic air for desert. Not always, but many a time the WAA has won especially when there is not a high pressure to the North helping to reenforce the cold."

I agree completely.  This time around (Thu.) I would expect mainly rain along the I-70 corridor by mid morning at the latest especially on the Kansas side with very little if any ice problems. The WAA will come charging in...

wut does that mean??? lol

Wichita NWS
THE BIGGER
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE HOW QUICKLY OR HOW STUBBORN
WILL THE SHALLOW COLD AIR BE TO DISLODGE AS FREEZING DRIZZLE LOOKS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY THU WITH WARM ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THIS
SHALLOW COLD DOME. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ON THU
IN SOUTHERN KS...BUT HAVE DELAYED TEMPS CREEPING ABOVE FREEZING
UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR CEN KS.

I will have to agree with stjoeattorny when I went to shovel the drive, I measured 4.7 on an average. I was amazed that at 4pm it was still a light snow coming down. It was actually the kind of snow that makes a perfect pictures, reminds me of a snow globe. You could actually see the pattern of a perfect snowflake when it would land on the jeep.  It was enough that it was dusting over what I already shoveled. I'm alittle concern about temperature for Thursday, won't this snow play in as a factor to warming up above freezing?

funny, NWS in P. Hill is calling for thursday's temps to be 41 deg.  here in Johnson county. it's about 12 deg right now.  SO in the next 36 hours it seems like a nice warm bubble is going to overcome us and the high pressure system out of texas.  I'm not a professional forcaster, obviously, and I know kansas weather can change in an instant. but I just don't see how this is very believable.  In the  weather pattern we are in, and Wednesday night the lows are supposed to be in the lower 20's, so what the NWS is saying is that in the course of about 4-6 hours the temps on thursday wil rise a little over 20 degrees, durring the day, and we might even have an isolated clap of thunder.  Sorry, I'm not buying it. I'm sticking to my forcast on the prior blog.

3.5 inches here in rural McLouth, KS

Wow....everybody has such awesome points today. Thursday-
bottom line...
Cold air is denser and heavier than warm air, Thus harder to move. Warm air is light and bouyant and easy to move by cold air. The arctic air(plus snow pack element) will be very dense and I think it will be hard to shove the warm air north. Hey it's possible but I think this COLD DENSE AIR will be stubborn.
a good point that RDub has made is that if the warm air overrides the cold air enough and warm enough that we get warm rain drops falling through the cold air eventually eroding away the cold air causing us to slowly climb above freezing. Just some thoughts. i'll check back in later.

Bria1234,

Did you forget about Sunday?

Temperatures dropped 20-30 degrees in 2-3 hours.

Warm Air Advection can be just as powerful...

Hey Gary, here in Albany, MO about 4.5" of snow, still snowing lightly.  Hope some of your predictions are wrong about the ice.

Keep up the great work!

Brian with all do respect and not burst any ones bubble but it dropped 40 degrees with this artic blast in 4 hours here.  It is very much a possibility that it can rise just as much just as fast. Sorry

Thursday is up in the air and will be until Gary and the 41 weather team say other wise.  

Drove home from Maple Woods to WOF area.  20 minutes.  Not bad.  The highway was pretty good.  

it is generally easier for a colder air mass to overtake a warmer air mass durring the winter months.  

"With all do respect" and "it's up to the weather team to say otherwise"..lol I feel like I'm being brow beaten by my mommy...lol that's just... ummm funny.

New Blog!!!!!!!

"lol I feel like I'm being brow beaten by my mommy...lol that's just... ummm funny."

No brow beating here!! just wanted to share my opinion with out seeming like I was trying to start an argument.  So much for that I guess.  :(

No theres Not. Quit telling Lies

Interesting wording on the afternoon AFD from the NWS Pleasant Hill..


MODELS ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO
SOME OF THE FINER SCALE DETAILS ON THURSDAY...WITH THE RECENT
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS TRENDING SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE INTO THE PLAINS (YET STILL REMAINING ON THE
FASTEST ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS). IN THE SAME VEIN...THE OPERATIONAL
GFS HAS SUBSTANTIALLY RETARDED THE NORTHWARD RETROGRESSION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS...SUCH
THAT IT NOW NEARLY MATCHES A BOUNDARY POSITION FIRST ADVERTISED BY
THE EXT-NAM AND ECMWF...PROGRESSING NORTH TO NEAR A KTOP-KSTJ-KIRK
LINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.


Still if this is the case. The majority of the metro will be spared of any significant Ice Accumulations.

With regards to the severity of the event, they stated this....


EXPECTING A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD...YET LIGHT ICING EVENT TO UNFOLD DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...UNDOUBTEDLY CAUSING SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS...YET
REMAINING BELOW ANY WARNING THRESHOLDS. THEREFORE...WILL NOT HOIST
ANY WATCH HEADLINES...ANTICIPATING A SOLID ADVISORY
SITUATION...THOUGH FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS IN FAR
NORTHERN MISSOURI (PARTICULARLY ALONG THE IOWA BORDER) WHERE ICE
DEPOSITION COULD ACCRUE FOR A LONGER DURATION AND AT COLDER
TEMPERATURES.


We will have to see if the southward trend continues...

jdeweese, You reported the Albany total just as I was finishing talking with my mother who lives in Albany. She said she measured and came up with close to 5" and she said it was colder than crud outside! Don't know how the heck they will get their drive shoveled out, it's kind on a hill, lol.

NO above freezing temps, please!!

It seems that Gary is not sold on any solution for thursday..it seemed like he thought it might go either way....Its definitely that classic...question..will it be cold enough for a major Ice storm?

Check this out, ice storm for nothern missu now.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=eax

hey Adam,  out of all of the mumbo jumbo that the weather service wrote :


MODELS ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO
SOME OF THE FINER SCALE DETAILS ON THURSDAY...WITH THE RECENT
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS TRENDING SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE INTO THE PLAINS (YET STILL REMAINING ON THE
FASTEST ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS). IN THE SAME VEIN...THE OPERATIONAL
GFS HAS SUBSTANTIALLY RETARDED THE NORTHWARD RETROGRESSION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS...SUCH
THAT IT NOW NEARLY MATCHES A BOUNDARY POSITION FIRST ADVERTISED BY
THE EXT-NAM AND ECMWF...PROGRESSING NORTH TO NEAR A KTOP-KSTJ-KIRK
LINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.



ummm,. all I understood from that was something was retarded...lol  



Now that's funny.   I wish people would put something in plain english.  Who talks like that?..lol  

lol @ retarded... that's damn funny.  I understand that you didin't write it Adam , no harm no foul.. but for NWS to post that... It sounds like something that Egon from Ghostbusters woudl say...lol

I would be very surprised if we made it above freezing on Thursday.  I think this storm is going to go more south plus the computers have not been doing a good job with this arctic air blast since Sunday.  We have been 5-7 degrees colder every day than what was thought and the models were warmer than that.  If we make it to the mid 20's tomorrow then I might believe it, but I will be watching the storm system to see what kind of path its taking.  If it stays south of us, it will be all ice with maybe some sleet/snow on the back side.  

yeah we just need it to move a little further south Andrew...It can happen!

One certain station is bragging about being the first to forecast this "potential" ice storm...they said they were talking about it last wednesday...that might have been when I first heard about it...but it was supposed to be today..not thursday

La Cygne received 1/2 inch of sleet/snow mix. Our trees and pastures are covered in a light layer of ice too.

What is the thoughts on Significant icing for Thursday? The only channel with the wacky guy is saying significant ice storm, but it's hard to believe that channel with their poor forcasts. It just gets people stirred up - Like me!

I wonder why the NWS is not on board with the Sunday Artic Blast? They are showing a high of 22 for Sunday and 24 for Monday.

I bet that looks very pretty farmgirl.     Lets hope the next event is mostly rain and does not cause any more destruction.   You have had enough in the last year to last a decade.

I hate saying this...

Yesterday afternoon some forecast models had today's 3" snowfall tracking up across Iowa. I wouldn't rule out the potential that Thursday's storm system could make the same leap southward, and thus putting Kansas City in an area of very heavy freezing rain - the heavy ZR that Southern Iowa looks to get as per the 18z NAM.

looks now 2 stations are predicting an ice storm...its getting tense!

talk of ice gets me stirred up..lol

WSW already up for Iowa for Thursday

Gary, can you talk about the potential wind speeds with the Artic Blast? If it is a only going to 8 and colder at night that could be deadly for farm animals. Please advise.

-----------------

It is just too early to make the prediction on wind speeds. But, if the models have it even close to right the wind chills could be -30.

Gary

the NWS I don't think is very reliable farm girl I don't pay any attention or take any of their graphics seriously.

Ok,. I hesitated even posting this, cause I don't want to sound like a know it all, but I wrote a post in the last blog calling for an ice storm.  I'm just not pickin up what the NWS was putting down earlier.  just fyi, trying to get some respect on here.

andhey if I'm wrong, then I'll be the first one to say it.

Watching Garys forecast as we speak and I still am not sold on that warm air coming in by noon. Im really thinking we are going to have a pretty good ice storm. Honestly I dont think anyone will know until tomorrow P.M.

HailJohnathan,

Why do you say they are not very reliable without any proof? Have you looked at any numbers verifying their forecasts? I don't normally stand up for them, but they are actually the ones who pegged a 3-5 inch snowfall in the area last Saturday already.

Thats pretty darn accurate IMO.  

Putting them down serves no purpose as they are the ones who provide the data you look at, provide the warnings your listen to, and are the main reason why we can study weather today.

I'm all for not mentioning other stations on this blog, but for some reason it seems like a hostility to the folks at the NWS has developed here.

---------------

I agree!  The NWS did a fine job with predicting this snowstorm.  Forecasting snow is one of the most difficult forecasts to make.

Gary

Its going to be close..thats for sure...last year the warm air came in and prevented icing...will it do it again?

hey, i got 3.8 inches here in Chillicothe, not 4.5

All im saying is :)

I dont wanna get kicked off the blog.

brian1234, i am sure you are doing a good job.  the key is to just keep doing your thing.  people read what you write here...eventually, they will notice if you are right  consistently.  have faith brother.  there are a lot of people looking for attention, so the best thing to do is not get so adamant about seeking praise and just do your thing.  if you forecast it, they will come...

So Gary, from what I can see on your winter forecast video on the KSHB website, it looks like you predicted that the first active cycle would end sometime around Christmas.  Is this still something you believe?  I'm just wondering when we will be able to breathe a little and have more than a day's break between storms.  It feels like we've been doing this for weeks, and I'm already ready for some calm, normal days.  Cold, I can deal; snow and ice, not so much.

In all reality I dont wish an ice storm on anyone and the folks in leavenworth and st joseph can relate to the ice storm last year some people were without power for a week I dont want to go through that again it is not fun I really do hope it warms up significantly on thursday to prevent an ice storm.

Brian1234,

Using foul language on this board is not necessary, like the word da*n.

That may be common in most everyones everyday common language, but there is no need for that word on this weather blog.

There is typically a high level of professionalism on this blog.

There are many high level weather enthusiasts on this board, so saying things like,

"Hey I just predicted an ice storm like 2 hours ago", especially since it hasnt even happened yet, doesnt get you respect in my book.

Go back and review previous blogs, and see how Bill and Lawrence went about saying the models were wrong, in a professional manner.


Nobody clammers for respect on here. Why do you need it??


Also statements such as this....

"With all do respect" and "it's up to the weather team to say otherwise"..lol I feel like I'm being brow beaten by my mommy...lol that's just... ummm funny."


Trying being a little more insightful, and people may begin to respond to your posts. There is a reason they are not.

There was a blogger last week that was kicked off the blog for the same reasons. We would love to have you on here, just be careful.

;)

I rescheduled my son's flight from Phx to here from Thursday to Friday as soon as Gary said that three letter word, it is not one he uses at a whim, so he must be thinking there is a fairly good possibility of it happening.

No melting, please! I bet like last few storms this will move a little bit farther south, and we end up getting snow.

No melting, please! I bet like last few storms this will move a little bit farther south, and we end up getting snow.

lol,. nice Field of Dreams ref. there pvt murphy..lol  thanks... It's not that I'm looking for praise or anything, i just wanted to clarify that, and also state that I'm not affraid to admit when I'm wrong.  

I'm going with a significant ice storm for thursday.  It's gonna take alot to push this existing system out.  However the temp has actually risen a few degrees in the past couple hours. But, the high pressure that was located in central texas has moved off to Lousiana and the low pressure system in the rockies are staying consistant.  As I've always stated i'm not a professional forcaster, but I have lived here all my life, and i have a pretty good understanding of weather patterns, althought I have an occasional typo here and there. I know my stuff.   So I think we're gonna get hammered on thursday!

andrew...snow is very unlikely with this next storm..it would take a miracle for it to be snow..its looking like rain or freezing rain.

last year when temps went above freezing during the ice storm a different station said that it was raining so hard that it brought the warmer air down to the surface and it stayed at 33 degrees the rest of the time

Hey Adam,

There is no need to come down on me like that. Who do you think you are, my daddy?  There is no reason for you to go through and mirco manage every entry I have made to pick me apart to make yourself look good.  I don't need your approval and have in no way been out of line for anything in here.  How about you be a big boy and mind your own business and keep your coments to yourself, instead of personaly attacking others.  

How about when I say damn,.. you just imagine is says gosh darn. Unless I am refering to a body of water that is being restrained by a land mass to hold back water.  Is that politically correct and Ward Cleaver enough for you?

Brian.... Nvm

Is there an official product called an Ice Storm Watch? or is that a Winter Storm Watch?

If there isn't, I not trying to frighten anybody, but I gonna first to say that ICE Storm Watch is in effect from Wed. Night thru Thurs. Night

Keep to the weather guys!

Its getting hot in here...please everyone try to be tolerant and polite.

yeah andrew I think there may be a watch

actually theres a freezing rain advisory and theres an Ice storm warning so you have made a new watch andrew!..lol

Can you people just stop, and talk about weather??!!

Just a thought folks, and I think it happened last year...  we'd had a real cold spell, temps warmed up, and it either lighty rained or drizzled, and bam, accidents everywhere because of black ice  (one of my co-worked slide into a ditch).

Anyway, whether it warms up & spares the trees & the power lines, if you add a little rain on the roads too fast, it is going to turn them into ice fast.  

I am second then Andrew lol ICE Storm Watch from me too. I am not alarming people but honestly we live in Missouri and Kansas and we don't get lucky to have big snowstorms anymore. I dont want people to take this and tell everyone that Gary said it. Its just my opinion just thought id state it. Not a major major ice storm but a ice storm is what im predicting

I got home to see my driveway & sidewalk cleared by someone.  I don't know who did it but it was sure a blessing to have it done already!!  Sometimes its the little things that matter the most.  Especially, since we have for years cleaned the elderly neighbors drive & walk every snow.  Now, we moved & someone came & cleaned ours for us.  It was neat for my kids to see that sometimes what goes around comes around, in a good way.

The last few storms have been the same thing on the models, up north then out of the blue it moves south, i think this gonna happen based on what has happened with these storms that last few weeks.I almost think it will end up being a snowstorm (crossing fingers)

Hello, all. I know we are about 36 hours out, but my wife has a 6 a.m. flight to Vegas Friday morning...would she be better off flying out Thursday night or afternoon or should we stay with the Friday a.m. flight?

Well, of the few channels I watch for weather, a few handled this weather very well. Informative and pretty accurate. No I'm not going to say who or what I watch, but I do watch Gary and his team with much faith. Anyway, hat's off to all meteorologists (amateur and professional), this Winter weather is a pain to predict, it shows some serious scientific knowledge to figure it all out.

BillInLawrence, keep blogging, your posts are awesome.

The roads were horrendous tonight, once my wife makes it home, we're all safe and no incidents. With the slightly warmer air coming in tomorrow, I hope some treatments will go along way, I don't know what the optimum temp is for salt, but I know it's not 11f!!!

Thursdays weather, it's so close what could happen. The NWS also presenting the curve ball of thunderstorms. Interesting. I'm hoping this warm front gets a real good boost and knocks it out of the area, it sucks that someone is probably going to get the brunt of this. Given the LRC, is there a potential for a repeat late into January or early February?

Also, do you meteorolgists see more of an extended Winter this year, so often (I've only been in the USA for 10 years), it seemed like everything was done and over by mid February?

H.

I'm with you Emmysmom. I'm very tired from all the weather drama. I could stand a week of boring, quiet and not so frigid weather.

It should be time for a new blog

I think it's time for a new blog!!

Hello, all. I know we are about 36 hours out, but my wife has a 6 a.m. flight to Vegas Friday morning...would she be better off flying out Thursday night or afternoon or should we stay with the Friday a.m. flight?

Brian1234,

I apologize if I offended you. No harm done. Ill leave it at that, and lets try and move on.

This is a great place to come and discuss the weather, and we are all glad you are here, including myself.

Im very intriqued for the 0z data tonight. It is interesting that a trend to the south already began in the 18z runs.

I have been a big supporter of the WAA that will occur, and have stated many times that the warm weathe will win out.

However, there has been a strong trend for the models to dig the systems to the south much further within the 30-60 hour time frame. I am growing concerned that a similiar circumstance will transpire here.

It is nevertheless so interesting to follow....

:)

Even if the Temps get above freezing on Thursday, the streets are most likely going to be below freezing. Therefore any rain that falls will freeze on the streets that don't have a lot of salt on them already (read as sidestreets).  I encoutered this a few years ago when we got a rain shower at 34 degrees after it had been anywhere from 0 to 20 degrees for a week.  Pulled out of my driveway and didn't stop until I was in my neighbors front yard.  Yea the trees and power lines will be spared but when it starts it could be very dicey on the roads until the temps are above freezing for a while.

Adam,

Just wondering why you are so eager for the WAA to win out in this situation?

I understand the need to downplay the possibility of any kind of dangerous weather situation in the winter, and I know I don't want to see anything but good 'ol snow, but I am just trying to gather your opinion.

Looking at the models, which is always dangerous to do, it does look like they are trending more south, and that the GFS and NAM are both overplaying how quickly the cold air retreats...

I am also slightly concerned about Thursday evening when the cold air starts to spill back into the region....

If someone could please help me with something, I want to submit snow pics and don't know how, also I don't have outlook.  Thanks! Audrey

e-mail them to glezak@nbcactionnews.com bulldog

Im horrible with any technology lol im sorry Audrey.... but im curious, our neighborhood streets are horrid! completely covered in snow... is anyone else out there having the same problem or is it just leawood? and even as i type this the plows are attempting a plowing... but really arent getting anywhere.

Also to report, i hope its not too late, in my front yard on 151st and mission area, we recorded about 3.75 inches, bringing a season total to 6.25! WooHoo! and i just stepped out to feel a really REALLY light freezing drizzle...

Guys, I must say, I came back to the blog after a few hours and my, some of this is like watching my kids chat with their friends, I did get a laugh out of it, but I'm glad things were put aside and it's back to weather. I sure hope there is no ice storm, I am sick of seeing all of the wrecks and death from no weather events, much less add the ice on top of it. Ice wrecks havoc on everything, let's hope for all rain! I would like some snow next week so we have a white Christmas, would make the midnight eve services great!!

WEATERDUDE, our streets here in KCK ( 84th Ter) are horrible also, no plows ever come down these streets. When I came home from work at KU, I slid all the way down our hill, then our driveway also because it's an incline.....thought I was going right through the garage, lol.

Road crew just came and clean our streets much to my daughter's disappointment.  LOL  Yes there will be school tomorrow

It seems to me that every time (with the exception of today) that a big storm has been predicted, Kansas ends up in a dry slot. (I am even more of an amature than all of you so I am not sure of all the terms). Where we live we got hit hard with the ice storm last year and then a blizzard close to Christmas. I would love a big, big snow!

Thank you Juba!

I have a question. We got less snow than places like St Joe and northward, is that because the storm developed closer to KC or what?

We live "out in the country" and our county evidently took the day off today. No rural roads were plowed today. I know that I have 4.5 inches of snow in my yard and a nice, deeper drift in my driveway. Good thing my Durango has 4WD or I wouldn't be able to get out! (assuming we have school tomorrow.)

Weatherdude,
I live on K hwy in Parkville and I watched more than 5 plows come down the street, the only problem was, they didnt have their plows down so I am not sure why they even came down!  It makes me mad cuz its like a roller coaster road and I am not so sure I will be able to get out in the morning to go to work.  My husband had major problems trying to get down this street just to get home.  GGrrrrrr!
Becky

Good Evening Gary and fellow bloggers!

Very nice snowfall here in KCK today, I recorded 3 inches today here in the Piper area.  Had a low temperature of 8 this morning and have worked up to 14, just a degree below our high temp that occurred at 4:35 P.M. Looking forward to seeing the latest model runs come out later this evening, but am thinking that the further south trend will continue. Looks like temps have come up to the south of us, 42 degrees at this hour in Northern Texas, and now 32 in Dallas, 42 in San Antonio, and 43 in Houston…so who knows, maybe warm air may make a strong run at us! Guess we will really know here in about 24 more hours!

Bryan

Fred,

I am also concerned about the Thursday evening timeframe. Howevevr, I do feel that by that time the system will have moved far enough to the northeast, that most of the associated lift will be gone as well.

I could be off on that part, but I think that is how i perceive it.

Now, why do I think the warm air will win out?

1. Currently the Low is projected to swing by NW of most of the metro, and has been projected to do so for several days.


2. The storm appears to be negatively tilted. When it pulls out of the Rockies and out on the plains, it will pull in a significant amount of warm, moist gulf moisture that will siginificantly raise dewpoints, and subsequently much warmer surface temperatures. In fact, dewpoints may reach the 50's as far north as southern missouri.

3. Ive seen soooo many warm advection events, that typically the models actually underestimate how far the warm front will actually retreat northward.


In the end, this is only my own humble opinion. I could be totally wrong. But this is what I like about this blog. It gives EVERYONE a chance at their own forecasts and opinions.

Im just throwing my .02 in as well.

:)

2. This does

this is really odd...there is heavy snow falling at the fort...as heavy as its been since lunchtime...and theres nothing on the radar at all.  its been falling for a while too.  there is fresh accumulation on my car, and the temp has dropped from 15 to 12 degrees in the past hour.  weird.  big flakes falling straight down.  this is an 'accumulating snow' right now.  gary/jeremy, explanation?

Looks like the northern track is winning, at least on the NAM. By the time the precip gets going (Thurs 6pm), it's too warm. Of course, the weather team will have to analyze whether or not the model is in la-la-land ...

Bewild, LOL, the same thing happened on my street. After I finally got home, the plows go by, but no blade. It was like they were out for a ride or something. In fact, when I was cleaning the car off this morning, the same thing happened!

Come on new blog new blog new blog!!!!!!!!!

meausred again at home 4.8 it was hard getting through the snow in my wheehchair but i did it once on the porch the neighbor came over and started to scoupe me out a good snow and still falling i left the tavern[ Norty's] and i had .25 inches on my van from 5:30 to now.

New Blog up