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I was getting ready to post that it was snowing outside in Blue Springs

I hope good news is that it is NOT going to happen! I am headed that way on Thursday!!

Good news means no ice??? does that mean rain?

Good news as in "not good for icy precipitation" or "good for the lovers of ice?"

:)

DL

Gary would never say Ice is good news. That would be deamed very bad by some people around the city.

The new NAM is continuing the warm trend.

Continues to look like rain to me...

If I know Gary..it means No ice.

Yea, latest NAM has us well above freezing.  Now 120hr storm is something I will start paying attention to.

Looks like the warm air will win out.   That will be good news!

This weekend looks fun too.   Who will be brave enough to go to the Chiefs game?

I think when ice is concerned, as much as some folks love Winter weather, ice is not a fave by most. So good news I think would be no or very little ice.

Anyway, I went here and they show rain all the way up into Nebraska on Friday, that's a pretty big swing. It's also the limit of my knowledge, looking at pre-rendered maps.... :)

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/index.php?model=gfs

I don't know how far behind the official runs it is, but it's a nice tool.

Nice balmy 19f outside right now... Not seeing any precip, but my car has a very visible glazing on the windows.

H.

"Good news as in "not good for icy precipitation" or "good for the lovers of ice?"

In other words... "Good news for sane people" or "good news for insane people."

Thanks goodness for no ice, but Thursday will be a muddy mess.  I'll take mud over ice any day of the week.

This thing is going to be all rain IMO.  Once that southern flow starts it will be amazing how fast it warms.  I also agree that though I am very excited to see a good snow storm, I would not wish and get excited about a big ice storm on anyone including myself.

How someone can be excited about ice is beyond me...  Interested in the science of an ice storm dynamics is one thing...excitement on ice is something that is equaled to being enthused to see a car crash, train wreck or airplane crash..........

This light snow that has formed this evening... there's an area of colder cloudtops streaming up from OK/TX into South central Kansas and heading into our area. Wonder if this thing is coming together to give us some more accumulating snow tonight into tomorrow AM?

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&isingle=mult_big&itype=wv

Another station just briefly mentioned that there would be a mist tomorrow and would make things icey, but I haven't heard anything anywhere else about any kind of problems tomorrow..other than what might happen tonight.  Is there any truth to it?

I just dont think there will be an ice storm. If there is one it will be minor. So many things have to come together perfectly for a major ice storm. Even more than a big snow storm. Looks like it will just be an old fashion rain event. Just wish it could have been snow.

rain in december during an arctic outbreak is wrong!...lol!

we need something frozen! this is insane...lol....rain.....

No! Please don't say above freezing!!!! I'm dancing!!

Until I start seeing any signs of warm air moving up, I won't believe it.  

Just to clarify....I'm not a big lover of the ice.  I'm sane too.  I was just looking for a clarification.

I think I'll take a break from the blog for a while.   Tough crowd, as we say in the biz.

DL

Heavysnow,

What makes you think it wont warm up??

Surface obs in TX show warming is already underway with sufficient return flow.

A negatively tilted storm moving by well north of the city, drawing in moisture from the wide open gulf of mexico.

What are your thoughts??

another station just said 1/4 to 1/2 inch of ice on thursday..... wish our own would blog alittle more in depth :)  Pretty please

Wouldnt make any assumptions just yet. We havent seen the forecast yet. I dont think we will we "well" above freezing. Im thinking that if we do get above freezing it will be a degree or two at most

Any chance the Sunday snow could accumulate to another nice 3"?

Well it looks like we should skirt by this thing which is good, Christmas is next week and an ice storm now would be well "Grinchy" of mother nature.  That said we should still be vigilant, I consider that watching for the possibility of being hit by an ice storm should be treated like the possibility of being hit by a cat 1. hurricane, so even when it looks like it is going to "veer" the other way still be somewhat prepared just in case it changes again. On another note, we just had a major one here last year and the one before that was 14 years before so a back to back would be unlikely for us anyway so I'm not too worried.

A ice storm and a ice event are two different things.   One is a hassle, the other is crippling.   I assume it will begin as a freezing rain event, but warm up fast to limit the accumulations.   Things can always change and we will know more as the event evolves.    It is hard to imagine the warm air taking over but the models are insisting on it.   Iowa looks to have the bullseye painted on them

As long as it does not totally melt our new snow so Im hoping for a 34 to 36 degree rain and not a 40+ degree rain.  

Gary you are not alone in believing the temp will rise enough to keep any ice accumulation to a minimum, the NWS is also leaning that way.  So I guess how much "rain" will we receive and will there be any flooding from melted snow and rainfall.  So this next storm isn't looking happier by the minute and we can look at Sunday.  You know, one of these days an arctic front will dive down and we'll be stuck with it for more than a week.  

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When we get stuck with it for a week it usually doesn't mean we have storm systems. So, the ups and downs are a symptom of the storms!

Gary

I still think it will go south of us, just like every other storm has done.

I wonder where Scott is....lol. He said he woudlnt comment after the 0z....

Would love to here his thoughts as well as Bill's.

They are just so insightful.

I think we will get some freezing drizzle/rain over night tomorrow but by 10am, the temp will start warming up and we will have just plain ole rain, which is a very good thing!!

Andrew me and you have the exact same views this winter im thinking it will go south just like every single storm so far. Nice to see a truck not able to make it up our hill. Im still thinking ice storm what about you Andrew?

Won't believe the models one bit!!

Me either i dont like what their saying bring on the ice and snow. Call me insane im a teenager come on i like fun and riding my four wheeler in this weather its fun. TRY IT SOMETIME

Something is wrong with the NCEP site. The 0Z NAM only went out to 78 hours and then stopped.

The 0Z GFS should have already began rolling in by now and its not...

Anyone know whats up??

sweetness, are you a girl or boy? I ride 4 wheelers also and love to ride in the snow, thats why I wish we would get more snow!

Looks like a messy morning commute on thursday but thankfully it will warm up and get rid of this icy mess,and are the models slow tonight or is it my computer.

Why is this blog so slow to post ? It is the only blog I ever have trouble with, in fact, the website as a whole is slow a lot of the time. This is my fav website and I get frustrated!

Kellyann im a boy lol i tried to change my name on here didnt work out to well. I want anything i can get besides rain i mean thats for the summer not winter.

I think it will probably warm some, but I will wait till tomorrow night to see what Gary says, as there are a lot of ingredients that have to come together for an ice storm.

I think this storm still has potential.

Man, everytime the word ice comes out in the blog, drama unleashes, and people start getting hostile with each other about little things. They read someone's post that they want ice, and assume they are wishing a devastating ice storm on everyone, when in fact they may think they are just cool.

I understand they hostility when people (bloggers or **blogger**) keep "predicting" we are going to get an ice storm, and are praying for one, that is pretty immature.

Ohh well, just another day in the worlds best and most interactive blog out there! =]

Alex from Marceline

What is wrong? is anyone else having trouble with this blog again, with being slow? Why does this happen all the time on here? Even with just logging onto KSHB is slow a lot of the time.
Everyone have a great night..

Sweetness, lol..ok..I kinda thought you were male. I agree rain is for any season but winter, but I don't like the ice at all, no one has any control when driving on ice, that makes for a bad drive and I have a teenager just starting to drive in this stuff, he proved today he was not the best, lol, the back tire of his S-10 went off the road and that was it, he couldn't move....Course his dad got it right out, lol.

I must have the same views as andrew and sweetness. the models are 2 for 2 on bringing the storms further south, and i think that will be the case with this storm as well. I just wish that instead of freezing i would be all snow.

I'll take rain over ice any day, but I wish it would just stay snow over both.  Gotta drive home in 45 min so I hope any glazing is at a minimum.  I'd just as soon keep the Mustang out of any ditches along the way!

Kelly,  if you are using Explorer for your browser, it will slow down on this site.   I had the same problem and switched to firefox.   With all the security risk with explorer, I would rec downloading firefox.    It is so much better.

Good Luck

I don't know what other local sources are saying because I don't watch them, but I rarely watch NBC's newcast either.  I get pretty much all my local information from this blog, which used to be cool because Gary would tell us what he thought would happen in the future (ie. forecast).  I imagine it's ratings related, but that has stopped and what we hear most here is "let's wait a little longer" or "we'll see what happens when it starts".  You've decided to always take the safe way out Gary.  I know, people, including you will argue with that, but it's what I see.

What I also see is a small story on the website's front page talking about freezing rain on Thursday, two days out... Could this be what Gary really thinks?  :)  It doesn't much matter to me what it does, I'm already itching for a good severe thunderstorm with tornado warnings flying off the press.

What if this surprises all of us and moves much further south?  What kind of snow potential would we be looking at?  Unlikely, just curious.....

kcweatherfan:   No chance it brings us snow.   Either rain or ice.   No way it goes far enough south to bring us accum snow.

Live Chat time... lrcweather.com/chat

I don't want an ice storm, but I don't want a rainy, muddy mess either. Can't it just warm up for a day and be dry? =) No such luck...I know. It's pretty amazing how it could warm up to well above freezing and then be back in the single digits by the weekend again. Gotta love this Kansas weather!

lezakEF5 I dont know why you are calling people immature for hoping for an ice strom... seems kind of ignorant to me. Sorry people love winter weather? Seriously rain is for spring/summer ice and snow are for winter. I honestly still think we are going to get more of an ice storm rather than a rain event- my opinion so dont freak out anyone I'm not trying to be immature.....
Phillip

weather people....weather.  Lets not resort to name calling.  Its getting old...

It is holding steady at 20 degrees here. Has been all day.  I think we may get that warm up.  

A drop of 50 degrees Sunday, a warm up of close to that on Thursday, than cold again this weekend, WOW.  What a week.  But that's the weather here in Missouri.  Isn't that the ol' saying.  If you don't like the weather here in Missouri wait a minute and it will change.  That is what I like about it though.  Always keeping you on your toes.  A nightmare for the forecasters but at least it never gets boring.  LOL

Thats all I want too.. I dont see anything wrong with people expressing their opinions on here

Express opinions all you want.  That is what we are here for.  To express our opinions about the weather.  I was just saying that the name calling is getting old.    =)

Totally agreed :)

"lezakEF5 I dont know why you are calling people immature for hoping for an ice strom... seems kind of ignorant to me. Sorry people love winter weather? " pmccabe58

This isn't to bash you, just a perpective from someone who has been without power for 10 days after an ice storm.  I'm sure you are good people, but...

Ice storms are hell.  It can snow 2 feet, but at least I would still have electricity which means heat in my home when I'm stuck in it for several days with young children.  It means I won't have half my trees broken over in the yard which means I have to clean it up.  It means that I don't have to worry about trees crashing into the house.  An Ice Storm is hell.

No offense to you, pmccabe58, Ice Storms result in pretty pictures and kids get out of school, but they will shut down a city.  Look what is going on in the northeast right now.  Ask those folks in St. Joe that had to deal with it last year.  Whether or not an Ice Storm happens is out of our control, but please understand why some of the posters on here get agitated when other posters are cheering for it.

Take care.  No malice intended with this post.  Just giving you the other opinion.

Can we get some better updating on the webcast???? I missed the 10 news...actually the phone rang and had to answer it at 10:15.  Hate that!  It just seems that the weather forcast and the webcast do not get updated the way they should.  Thanks

I totally see where all of you guys are coming from, but I really love winter and yeah i understand ice storms are a headache but i enjoy them. Maybe when i get a little older and have a house of my own i will completely envy them. I would much rather have snow though :)

I wouldnt worry about it camatz.  Like Gary said, it is going to change again by morning.  These storms cant really be pinned down until right before they get here.  Things can change a lot from now until 12pm tomorrow...that is when I will take things more serious as the potential.

Some things to think about.  I definitely find the weather interesting.  I love to see nature's fury, as long as nobody is hurt.  While some may wish for major storms, in many cases they just don't think about what the ends results are.  In the aforementioned ice storm in the northeast, one many died because he lost power and his oxygen machine quit.  If you want to see some of the photos and stories, here you go:
http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2008/12/13/ice_storm_paralyzes_parts_of_new_england/

http://www.boston.com/news/local/gallery/121208_readersweatherphotos/

pmccabe58,

Sorry, I wasnt trying to offend anyone, actually, I wasnt even talking about you. I understand you love winter weather, and so do I.

Like I said, some people get mad when people post comments about us getting an ice storm. The people who get angry may not know the person just thinks winter weather events are cool. So, I was not trying to freak out on you or anything...you just like the winter weather.

It is when people post comments hoping for a devastating ice storm in every blog entry. This was a problem in the blog last year with a particular blogger.

Sorry for any troubles..

Alex from Marceline

Nice agenda this year...

http://www.norman.noaa.gov/nsww2009/agenda/

come on guys. This is the same darn thing that happens every time. Some people like nasty weather, I LOVE Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes but that doesn't make me an idiot or immature or whatever. I just have a passion for it. Some people have a passion for the ice storms and their beauty. the insults really have no place on this blog. ICE believe it or not guys is weather related so can be freely talked about. You guys can keep going back and forth about it or you can calm down and enjoy the NBC action weather blog that Gary and the team have provided for us! Thank you and Peace love and Weather. Good night to all.

kcwxguy-

I agree, looks like a very nice agenda! I wasn't able to make it last year, but 2007 was pretty decent. I wonder if they plan on doing the scenarios again this year like they did in the past. Those are always fun! I noticed they're also doing amateur radio license testing as well. If I can get those days off, I will definitely be going down to attend that.

I just got home from work, so i'm a little behind on things....
Actually, to disagree kindly with Nick, we had a pretty major ice storm, was it 6 or 7 years ago? I lived in Gardner and we were without power for a few days. We sat out on our back porch and watched transformers blow all over town. But I do agree that two consecutive years with big ice storms would be out of the ordinary...

There seems to be a huge gap about later today and Thursday weather. I have seen that its going to be about 40 and all rain with Friday being just as warm. Then I have see a few that show freezing rain starting today near 4pm and by Thursday night having almost an inch of ice.    This should be interesting to see how the weather plays out...

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Really there is a huge forecast gap on about every day of the year if you were to look at forecasts from every source for Kansas City.  We continue to lead the way with our forecasting of big and small events.  We have stayed consistent that Thursday should bring some freezing rain(more north...especially along and north of hwy 36).  And then slightly warmer air should change the freezing rain to rain.  Temps will start around 20 and warm into the mid 30s by afternoon/evening in many spots.  There is a potential for 40ish or better, but the models may not recognize that we have 2-4" of snow on the ground keeping the surface colder.  Just my thoughts.

Jeremy

I sure wish we could get one of those Milwaukee snowstorms.   They are getting some good ones this year.   You dont seem to miss those long winters of past Jeremy :)    

If anyone catches the 5am weather can you please update here?

Thanks

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I just posted the video clip on the weather page showing Powercast for Thursday...check it out!

Jeremy

Gary:
Good cold winter’s morning to you sir!! Currently sitting at 11 degrees this morning with the moon glistening on the snow-it is great out this morning-snow crackling under your shoes and there was a hoot owl hooting this morning-priceless!!
I have several random observations this morning that I hope in the end will make a little sense!! LOL

1. Yes, it is cold out this morning but you can already feel the change in the air-it is not the bone chilling cold that was Monday and yesterday and there are also some low level clouds trying to move in from the South this morning. It feels like the assault has already begun!!

2. I think this morning’s surface charts tell a lot-the surface high pressure is sitting just to our west and the temperatures there show that as there are some 0 readings SW of Topeka this morning. However, in the Texas Panhandle, they didn’t even go below freezing last night and Goodland, Kansas is already in the upper 20’s at this hour. Once that surface high gets east of us, I think the assault on the arctic air will really begin-here comes Pacman!!!

3. The 0z models (I did not look at the 6Z as I figured there was little change) took that vort. Again right over the top of us. Man, it is so frustrating watching that in the loop on the NAM and GFS. It digs pretty far south and comes out right from the 4 corners into the Panhandle of Oklahoma-you are like ya-here we go-but then pow-it heads directly NE right over the top of our heads!! With that kind of track, there is no way we can stay in the cold air. If we had a high pressure centered to our North helping to reinforce this cold air and helping to block this a bit then it would be different. The cold air dome is kind of like a freshmen corner playing bump and run coverage-it is out there on an island all by itself without any safety help and it is going against Randy Moss-the warmer air-touchdown Randy Moss!!

4. However, I do think this storm is a great study on winter weather systems for this area and one where one can really learn much about cold air, what we need from it, how we need that High pressure to our North to help with the cold air and of course WAA and how it can be such an influence in this area. It will also be interesting to learn from if something drastically changes in the next 12 hours-if some how there is a change to the north not yet being seen and what that can do.

5. Really, when you think about it, this scenario as now depicted should really not be a total surprise-one thing the LRC has shown us is volatility-up and down-it has been a pattern of extremes and we are in the part of the pattern that really explodes those extremes as we are where really cold air gets into the mix. However, I think we are seeing that it will be hard for the cold air to stick for more than say 72 hours at a clip before we ride the roller coaster again but have also seen as in yesterday that we can catch moisture in that time. Even in this active part, I think we are seeing that we will go up and down but now, these are quite extreme. It has been the theme most of the Fall. Does that make any sense??

6. All that being said, I just want to get through Thursday and get this over with. It is coming-it is going to warm up (maybe after a brief period of some freezing drizzle/lite rain) and we are going to have rain. No matter what, this system is not friendly-either something crazy happens in the next 12 hours and we get freezing rain or we get rain-either one is pretty much yuk!! And man it is kind of frustrating-kind of like scoring a touchdown in the last 45 seconds and thinking you have the game won only to have the other team then score a field goal as time expires. Going from 0 to rain in 72 hours is one of the worst experiences for a snow lover in this area and it happens a lot!!! Let’s just get it over with!!!

7. Finally: as hope always blooms eternal, the 0z Euro looks very interesting (I think) for Saturday and Tuesday-long ways out but something fun to look at instead of the rain machine heading out of the SW LOL!!!


Although I do believe, for what it’s worth (which aint much LOL) this storm is set and that we quickly go above freezing tomorrow it will be interesting to watch today and see what temps. do around the area.

Have a great day-I hope you get to get out again and play in the snow some as I hope Jeremy does-I am planning a big snow afternoon today-we are going to try and build that igloo-exercise in futility!!

Bill in Lawrence

Jeremy said its a tough forecast.    Starts late morning with some freezing rain and during the afternoon, warm air should move in and bump us to mid 30's.   Ice storm to our north.    Very cold Sunday!!!!

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Sometimes these WAA precipitation events arrive earlier.  So mid morning is a good estimate right now...a little later north.  We'll watch the trends as it could start sooner.  Not an easy forecast.

Jeremy

Jeremy:

Good Morning to you!!

Did you get to get out in the snow with the girls yesterday? I didn't yesterday but the boys will be at my house today so I am planning a full afternoon-wonder how the igloo exercise will go today?? LOL

Good luck to you guys tomorrow-going to be interesting for sure!! There is no doubt that you guys will be way ahead of the curve!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

My oldest didn't even want to walk on the snow yesterday when she left school.  I guess my feelings about snow are being transferred to her:)  My youngest was outside with me all bundled up while I was shoveling.  She kept taking her gloves off so it was a quick trip into the snow yesterday.  If there's no snowman involved, they generally aren't very interested in the snow.

Jeremy

I want frozen precip or none at all, ice storms are fine if there on trees and grass, nothing else.

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As long as the branches don't fall on powerlines or homes...

Jeremy

I have been trying to get a good idea of what to really expect tonight and Thursday and all I can say is this must be one tricky weather pattern because the forecasts are all over the place.   It kinda seems like its 50/50 on the warm air pushing high enough.  

If we do have ice lets hope that its a safe weather event and that we can just look forward to more snow soon! (hopefully)