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how funny!! exactly how i feel about this weather too... BLEAAAHHHH!!!

Ok, That was the smile I needed first thing this morning...My horses agree with her's in totality.

OK Gary Sunday is going to be beyond cold but how about the wind, how windy will it be?  Got to be some wind with a temp drop like you are forecasting.  Living on top of this hill with the windbreaks still in their infant state isn't always fun when it is windy, especially out of the north or nw.

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David, 

We should know a lot more about the wind soon.  But, if the GFS is correct it will be extremely windy bringing wind chills down to below -20 on Sunday.

Gary

Let's all send positive thoughts for NO ICE STORM...I'm in Maryville, way up north, and last year's ice storm was just nasty.  Plus, I really like my electricity...

<no ice storm no ice storm no ice storm>

Good Morning again!! Just a little observation that I think is kind of neat: When I was out way earlier this morning Lawrence was at 11 but the surface high was to our West-looking at the 12Z surface charts the High is just North of us and Lawrence is now at 1. Just interersting I thought!!

What do you know-a short Blog from me!! I think I said enough in the last Blog this morning LOL

Have a great day-I bet you get the girls out once this winter Jeremy!!! I'll let you know how my "snow afternoon" goes today!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

That's it.  You don't have any more to say.  LOL

I know you wrote more earlier.  I will go back and read it.  The 06z GFS does have a storm around Christmas.  But, the 00z GFS and ECMWF do not.  We will see how the morning models look soon.

Gary

Great funny picture!  Not liking the possibility of freezing rain tomorrow morning.  Daughter has one more day of finals- they get out at 11a.m. tomorrow morning, so I hope either they cancel classes altogether if it looks like freezing rain, or the temps get to above freezing before 11 which to me would seem doubtful.  Will wait to hear what you think when you update the blog.  Dea

********************

Dea,

All the new data rolls in from now until 10 a.m.  After that I think we will have more confident thoughts.  We are pretty confident there will be some freezing rain changing to rain, but how much frz. rain and how quick is the transition.  Also, the bigger question is how much liquid falls.  Will it be 0.05", 0.25", or 0.50"+. 

Jeremy

NO SNOW ON CHRISTMAS!!!!

I look forward to your thoughts on Thursday. Will the snow on the ground keep our Temps down?

Have a great day!

In comparison to yours, Here are some of what the Other Stations are saying

Station #1 thinks that this is a classic Ice storm situation and already put out totals of 1/2 around the Metro

Station #2 says Freezing rain changing to rain later on in the afternoon

Station #3 Says Freezing rain till about 10 then switching to rain most of day.

***************************

And the most accurate station doesn't want to know what everyone else is forecasting.  I don't want to get their thoughts into my forecasting thoughts.

Thank you for using 'other station' though.

Jeremy

From Gary....When we talk about "new data" this does not include what the other stations are thinking.  We simply do not want to know what they are forecasting. Perhaps after the fact it is interesting to know what others had in their forecasts, but we have found that our forecasts are much better without that influence!  This season we have been hitting our forecasts well without that influence.

Gary

Very windy Sunday with windchills of -20?  Why not.

Good Morning Everyone,

Let me tip toe back in here.  I promise not to even elude to the "***" word.  I'm like several others, we need to get in these last couple of days of school before the break.  

It would be awful nice to have a White Christmas:)

DL

Glad your still here DL! The kids (mine anyways) actually don't want to miss any more school this week.  The bus made it today, 15 minutes late.  Our road was plowed but not salted. It is a scary rd. Will be going out today if I can get into the car. Question: If it does ice in the morning, then rains, will the rain melt the ice that has stuck?

-------------------

Yes!  If it rises even to just 33 degrees then the ice immediately begins melting.  And, if rain falls on the melting ice it helps tremendously.  New data is coming in soon.

Gary

P.S. I'm surprised we don't even have a "hazardous weather" statement from NWS. They seem to put one out for any type of weather event.

(((WOXDL)))  Good job.  Thanks

chfs327-I understand you looking at the other stations.  Im always curious as to what they are saying so I can compare it to the BEST+ ACCURATE=Weather Team(Gary, Brett, Jeremy, and Jeff)  I have to laugh at station #1 (I often do) They called for an inch of snow yesterday.  

Everyone go to the LRCweather.com and buy your Breezy and Stormy tshirts and other LRC merchandise.  My was shipped yesterday.  Can't wait to get it.

Jeremy

Your killing me with the "Holiday lights on the plaza".  Can't we call them what they are "Christmas lights"

***********************

I think I just got in the habit of holiday lights...so that is probably how it will remain.

Jeremy

Hi Bulldog,

This is the school week that won't end!  We have a concert with all the music groups on Friday and we really, really don't need to miss tomorrow.  I'm anxious to hear what Gary says about the new data:)

DL

My kid has to take two finals tomorrow to bring his grades up to passing....there is no way that I want to miss that and, he actually told me that when he was younger, it used to be fun to have a snow day.  Now, he is bored and does not want to miss anymore school.  Of course, being a mom who is freaky about kids getting sick, I wouldn't let them go out and play in it.  It was freezing!!!!!!  Please Tonganoxie have school tomorrow!!!!!!!!!  Let's just move all of the hazardous stuff to the weekends...I am sure the road crews would appreciate that ;)

GFS is already tired of the cold, it says its May 14th

Yeah, my son agrees with Bulldogs...and he is only in 2nd grade...though, being a teacher, the snow day kinda saved me a little as my son got strep, and then decided to be so gracious and share it with me...so we both got the day off without having to miss school, it was nice.  Though, I am still staying home today but he was dying to go to school today as it was his "holiday" party in class.  Last day of school is tomorrow...and they get out early...so I hope for no ice.

A white Christmas would be nice though...

Just a side note...if the forecast holds and it actually snows on Sunday during the Chiefs home game, that will mark the first time it's snowed during a Chiefs home game since the Raiders playoff game in 1991.  And it really only snowed before the game during tailgate hours.  I remember one other snow sometime during the 80's, but it was a very light snow and there were only about 12,000 people in the stands to remember that event.

It's EXTREMELY rare to have snow falling during a Chiefs home game!!  However, it was super cool to sit in the stands for the KU/MU game in November and have the snow come down!  Something about snow falling during a football game really energizes the crowd.

NWS Winter Storm Watch is for as far south as Holt county it does not biorder IA a mere 22 miles north of STJ!!!

Already up to 13 degrees.  Heatpump will go back on electric back up off.  For a few days!!  4.8  + 2.2   for the season 7 inches.  

NO ICE PLEASE.  Only good thing is all are tress got knocked down in last years storm!!!

Stjoeattorney-you guys took a beating last year.  I hope for everyone up North you guys get a break.  As much as I love winter weather, I will happily skip ice.  It is beautiful but man what havoc it brings.  I don't want the rain either though.  I love the snow on the ground right now.  I want it to stay.

Good morning everyone! I am glad to hear that the WAA is going to win out as I am heading home to KC tomorrow afternoon.

-20 Windchill Sunday - WOW... the boys from Miami might freeze Sunday and maybe we can squeak out our last home game.

Have a great day!

JP

Good morning bloggers,

As we all sit on pins and needles waiting for the new models to come out this morning, one can help to wonder how this storm will affect our plans.   Funny isn't it?  With all our technoligical advances, we are still and always be at the whim of mother nature!   After looking at the information available, it looks as if we are right on the center line of a 50/50 chance of getting mostly rain and temps in the mid 30's, and a major ice storm depending on how saturated the atmosphere will be. With all the gulf moisture and the possibility of severe weather in eastern oklahoma and the Ozarks area, I wonder how that will affect our weather. Will the high pressure  from the south override the approaching cold air mass?  Or will the low pressure systems from the rockies win?  

We are right on the boarder of this,. it really could go eaither way.   Any thoughts on this fellow bloggers?

So there is basically no chance at all that the temperatures will stay below freezing the entire day and we will have just an ice storm?
Phillip

I tell you what, I have never paid as much attention to the weather, and I mean like the causes and maps and such, as I have since I moved back a little over a year ago.  When I got back here, I started watching Gary's forcast and started looking at this blog and I have learned SO much about severe weather in the spring and now about storms in the winter.  It is so interesting to me and I just wanted to say thank you to everyone on this blog that has helped me understand all that is involved with the weather.  I look forward to learning much more over time and will do it here.

Weather team,
thank you for all your accurate forcasting and for answering questions I may have.  You cannot go to any other station and get the involvement with the viewers like you do here.  If there were some kind of award to give you all for that, I would!

Thanks again all!
Becky
Parkville

Phillip,

I think that there is a possibility of an ice storm, however everything seems to favor temps reaching just above freezing throughout most of the afternoon.  This would be a rain event. The rain would  cause ground temps to rise.  But it's Kansas, and anything can happen in the matter of just 4-5 hours. If temps drop below 33-32 degrees depending on moisture levels and dewpoints, then yes the possibilty exists. It really needs to be about 31 degrees or so and very high moisture levels for an ice storm.  It really depends on how warm the ground levels get.  Freezing on contact is what you would want to watch out for. Well that and tree limbs and power lines.

Ummm, The new 12z nam/eta has the low quite a bit further south now and keeps us in the colder air?????? I would say more ice and maybe some problems.

I think I just got in the habit of holiday lights...so that is probably how it will remain.

Jeremy

C'Mon Man!

******************

The lights on my house are Christmas lights & the one's on the Plaza are holiday lights.  That's how I view things. 

Alright thank you brian and Mammatus is the new 12z really saying that?

Hoping for no ice!  I live just north of Hwy 36 and I worry that it may stay just a little colder than the metro and i have a 25 mile drive to work and then again back home!

Mammatus,

Good observation!... I was looking at radar in south central Kansas and the Ok/TX boarder where the low is located and you can se a defined cut off as we are going to be dominated by a high pressure system today. I mean it is literally right on top of us.  This is the system that will push north into our region tonight and into tomorrow.  The question is, how far will it push?  I would not be a bit surprised if it all got hear sooner than expected and we are kept in colder temsps.

(Today is the 17th, not the 18th)

:0)

Morrell,

Yeah, this is way off topic!!..but a little humor for you ..
.Yeah I gotta agree with you.  Everything is way too politically correct.  I'm sorry but I don't tell my kids that the Holiday man is going to come down the chimney and deliver their Holiday presents, on Holiday Morning!  This is of course after we all partake in Holiday parties and we hang our Holiday lights on our homes and Holiday trees.  Seriously call it what it is.  Christmas.  You don't hear the Jews call it a Holiday candle do you?  No use real terminology and call it what it is.  I mean seriously, our kids can't even have Christmas parties anymore. It's holiday parties so nobody gets left out.  How clone drone and boring.  I remember the jewish kids just didin't have to come to school that day if they didn't want to!!.. And they say they are getting ripped off..lol. We get one day for X-mas,. they get 9 days for theirs!!  lol  It's those who celebrate Christmas who get ripped off, we should be complaining!!...lol  

******************

Let's focus on the weather discussion.  If anyone wants to discuss Christmas lights, holiday lights or debate which term to use just use the private message option.  With a storm coming for Thursday and more excitement this weekend I'd like to keep the comments focused on the weather.

Jeremy

Good mid morning everybody!! I just can't stay away can I????!!

A couple of things I have observed (I think??) while proctoring my last final instead of grading my other finals LOL!!

1. Looking at the current radar, the main energy of the storm has tarvelled pretty far South-it is raining in LA and even into Mexico. I'm not sure how far South the models had it before it began to move out but it is pretty far south.

2. That surface high just to our north is hanging pretty strong right now-no doubt it will drift east soon but I was surpised to see it still there at 14Z. It is helping keep places directly south of here cooler. Southwest of us though is begining to warm pretty fast. It is close to 40 in the Oklahoma Panhandle right now.

3. Looking at the 0z NAM itself, I think another factor in addition to the arctic air is just now getting is just how strong that trough is comming into the NW around Seattle-it appears at least intitally that this is kind of keeping the SW low from comming as far North as was progged yesterday. I wonder if this NW trough is also slowing it down as it is pushing the SW Low south before it begins to head NE.

Just some random thoughts-I don't really think they mean much in as far as what will happen tomorrow nor do I know if they are even on the right track, but just throwing them out there. Always fun to follow and to learn!! I will say this: when that vort. comes over my head Friday morning I think I am going to give it a few choice words for wipeing out what was 36 hours before a wonderfull winter land scape!!! I still contend that as a snow lover, it is painful to watch this on the model loop-it begins such a good track through the SW and then pow it hits Sw Kansas and bolts to the NE-if only it could keep trucking east from the Oklahoma Pan handle at hour 23. Oh well-there will be more this year for sure, but man this kind of feels like when a huge bass comes up and throws the lure back at you-there are more but when you have one you don't want to see them get away!!

Have a great day

Bill in lawrence

**************************

Some great thoughts Bill!  You don't let any weather detail slip through your fingers!

Jeremy

"Let's all send positive thoughts for NO ICE STORM...I'm in Maryville, way up north, and last year's ice storm was just nasty.  Plus, I really like my electricity...

<no ice storm no ice storm no ice storm>"

Don't know about you but I have been praying for the last 2 days for no ice...I too like heat and eletricity...last year was miserable....I am really praying for those out in NE and such that have been without for over a week now....
Any predictions on how much ice...are we looking at what we had last year?

Cut Jeremy some slack!! When you work with the public you have to be "politically" correct or else. That is the way it is in most places of work, who work with the public. I get the same thing in my job too. How you can decorate, what you can call it and how you can say it. It is job.

Weather wise I am looking forward to seeing what the rest of this week brings. I think I will be house bound for awhile since one of my kids brought the stomach flu home from school yesterday...oh joy!!!!!! So it will run it's course through our family. Better this week than next though. :o)

Have a great day!!

mamaof3girls:

My oldest son ahd that last week-it was nasty stuff-knocked him out for almost the whole week-he slept 18 hours one day and night. One good thing: nobody else got it including his younger brother. Good luck!!

Bill in Lawrence

mamma,

it's nothing directed at Jeremy at all, I was making a statment,/ joke about how people talke about christmas / holiday stuff. not directed at anyone. I understand office politics and how all that works,  all I was saying is that it has not always been like that.  Perhaps you should reread what i wrote.

Well the good news and silver lining to this is that either way it shapes up - even if we get the worst possible scenario out of this ice storm - the maximum QPF of any model I have seen consistantly is in the .25" to .50" QPF range - this would create some problems, but would be nothing compared to last years Ice Storm, and minor compared to the 2001 ice storm. Northern MO got close to 2" of ice (and in some cases more) last year.

Crossing fingers for No going above freezing, my Ice Storm Watch is still in effect. I think it will be trending farther south

Not trying to be negative but I want winter weather and if its ice then so be it. Spring and summer are over its time for some winter. Just pray no one gets hurt if there is ice

I say it but I hope one other station is right....


Gary, I think I definitely love Winter more than you do!! LOL

pmccabe58 said:
Not trying to be negative but I want winter weather and if its ice then so be it. Spring and summer are over its time for some winter. Just pray no one gets hurt
if there is ice
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Amen!!

I though Scott was getting a new blog done last night to put out today at lrcweather.com? He must of fallen asleep in the middle of writing it!

I second everyone's wishes for a white Christmas! As long as it doesn't interfere with everyone's travel plans of course. Brown grass just doesn't exude the holiday spirit like snow can!

I'm on board with you Andrew!  I don't think the high pressure and the "warming trend" will be able to hold it's ground.

Brian1234....I had not even read your's when I wrote mine. Both of ours posted at the same time.

Bill....glad to hear it did not spread like wildfire..LOLOL!! It has been going around down here pretty bad for 2 weeks and with 3 in the school district I am lucky that so far only one has gotten it. :o)

I think, IMO....that ice will not even be a issue for me since I am so far south. No worries from me. I certainly hope it is all rain for everyone. Would hate to see all the power outages a week before Christmas. Good luck everyone.

Stay safe and warm. That story last night about the homeless made me so sad, if we have a home, a job and food we are blessed. Take care!!

New info out on maps at 10?  Please let us in on your thoughts Gary!  I am already suffering the winter blahs....just give us good news!

It doesn't seem like it will be much of a problem getting here tomorrow, but I'm worried about going home.  If we get the freezing rain and then regular rain, will that make the evening rush better tomorrow?  I'm also worried because my husband works until 9:30, so I'm afraid it will get really bad by that time.

Thoughts?

Please keep reminding people to bring their pets in from the cold, I lose sleep worrying about all the dogs outside freezing in this horrific weather.  Keeping my pets warm and safe in Paola.
--deb,dave, hoss,popeye and windy

Gary/Jeremy:  If possible, I'm trying to head to Olmitz, Kansas (in the center of the state) on Chrismtas Eve so my sons & I can spend the holiday with my parents.  I won't be leaving town until late afternoon since I have to work that day.  Any thoughts on what the weather might be like heading that way?  I need to return to KC on Sunday the 28th so I can be back at work on Monday morning!  I realize you can't promise anything, and conditions can change, but I'm trying to make alternate plans if it looks like the traveling will be bad!  Thanks!

emmy,

we are supposed to get freezing rain in the morning, then rain in the afternoon, which may warm the ground enough to prevent any freezing durring the afternoon, late afternoon and early evening. However, and like I have said for the past couple days, it all depends on how much precip we get and if it will be 34 degrees or 31 degrees and what the surface tems are.  

Ya, that high pressure is being a little more stubborn that anticipated this morning.

Interesting....

I still fully expect to warm above 35 degrees by 1:00 tomorrow afternoon.

Also, as f00dl3 mentioned, precip amounts look much lighter, which im not sure if im buying yet, because the gulf is wide open. Should be plenty of juice available.

If precip doesnt start until after noon, this will be no big deal at all.

*********************

I'm not sold on the 35 degree temp by 1 p.m.  If it is 35 by 1 p.m. then I would say we could easily get to 38-40.  The NAM is closer to 32 at 1 p.m.  Normally a 3 degree spread isn't a big deal...unless it is raining outside.

Jeremy

We were supposed to get down to 10 this morning - although downtown did hit 10 - KCI got down to 4. While not a huge impact right now - a 6 degree temperature difference Thursday can make a wold of difference - especially for the northland.

*******************

Temperatures were all over the place this morning.  -6 in St. Joe to 14 in Sedalia.  That is a pretty big spread.  This was due to varying amounts of cloud cover.

Jeremy

i love winter weather but i would never wish ice on anyone. Its a weekday and people will still drive to work so more accidents, don't want to be out of power especially when the weather is going to be so cold this weekend. That could be devastating if power goes out for more than a couple of days. I also have a doctors appointment tomorrow to figure out why we lost our baby at 37 weeks pregnant, call me selfish but I would love some answers. So I will be doing the no ice dance at all cause my appointment is at 9:15 on the opposite side of the city.

For some reason I really dont think we will be able to get above 32 tomorrow. I think its going to stay just far enough south to cause problems

I know this is off topic but is anybody else trying to login going to Detroit?? I wanted to see Gary's forecast and ended up at a station in Detroit. Also when I hit login at the top of the blog page it sent me there too. Is there something going on with the web pages? It would be nice to see what the weather's doing here.

adam,

are you saying that the high pressure may not work it's way far up enough to warm the temps above freezing?  I just wanna make sure I understand, as those are my thoughts as well.

C in Raymore,
I am also doing the no *** dance.  I want to have heat in my house.

Sorry to hear about your loss, I know where you are coming from though.  I will keep you in my prayers.
Becky

 Andrew_Stafford said:
I say it but I hope one other station is right....


lol what station  are you watching andrew?...lol j/k I know....

if the low goes south like it looks like its going too...

The same thing happened to me. I think maybe the website is having url issues.

So does anyone have any new thought about this storm tomorrow? I know the new models should be out.

C in Raymore.....I am so sad to read that! I hope the weather cooperates for you. Prayers your way!!!!

Good luck weather team forecasting this next one! Sounds very tricky.

When do the new models come out?

******************

They are out.  The next batch starts to come in around 2 p.m.

Jeremy

Well what is the new models lookin like Jeremy?

Remember that for significant ice problems, it has to be a bit colder than 32. Generally if the temperature is right around 31-32, the icing is not too bad even if it is technically "freezing rain". Temps in the 20s, on the other hand, create much worse problems with the ice.

Since I doubt they will tell us what the new models look like for quite awhile, can anyone who can read the models please tell us what they are trending towards?  I teach up by St. Joe and am wondering about school tomorrow...as I am sure quite a few other parents, teachers, and kids are....

Looking at the current surface maps,  it looks like  high pressure will dominate the midwest all day today.  this will have a profound effect on the next 24 hours.  However howwill the low pressure systems from the southwest affect this. Will they become strong wnough to push the high pressure out and override it just enough to allow moisture in and keep temps cold enough to allow this to become a dangerous situation.  that is the real question here.  it is possible, but how probable.?

Forgive me if this has all ready been said but I see on the main blog that Gary and Jeremy posted what the NAM was showing for tomorrow but what about the other models?  What is the GFS showing?

We have windflow from all sorts of different areas - cold canadian / artic airmasses - moisture can be carried in from the Gulf of Mexico, the Pacific Southwest, and the Northern Pacific....

I just love living in the battleground - not many dull moments when we get the jetstream over us.

rdub,

good info, but just to add something to your post, the surface temps on the ground need to be cold enough to support the rain freezing on contact. If we have a rain event durring the day for a couple hours, it will warm up the ground , making the rain harder to freeze. The air temps play a significant role as well, this is where you get into trouble with tree limbs and power lines. There are two dynamics to consider here. Ground temps and air temps.

for the record I called for an ice storm tomorrow, however I may be the first one to admit that i was wrong.  However I'm still optimistic we'll have one. it's still to early to call with accuracy. Lets see what happends by about 5 tonight.

GFS is still showing the freezing line being right in KC about noon tomorrow (18z)...then at the Iowa border 6 hours later.

Erin, The GFS is pretty close to the nam but is drawing in more warm air tomorrow evening.

the important thing is the position of the artic high. right now it is just east of KC. as it moves farther east, winds start coming from the south, bringing in warmer air.

******************

The quicker the precipitation starts on Thursday the more freezing rain we could potentially see.  As the afternoon progresses temps should warm into the 33-35 degree range.

Jeremy

C in Raymore...my prayers go out to you and your family...

As for the ice storm...no way...bring on the rain.

in asnwering your question about what the maps looked like, I can tell you this. I will have to agree with foodl3, the precip amounts at this time, do not look significant. It shows us looking at perhaps .25 inches or precip. at best. high pressure should build more to  our south,, which should place a nice warm bubble around us, keeping temps around 34-36 degrees. (give or take)  but from St. Joe to macon, and north of there, .. that is the area's that may receive as much to .50 inch of precip, mostly freezing rain. and since temps won't advance much above freezing, this should keep th ground cold enough and moisture levels high enought for some problems.

however, lets see what happends around 4-5 pm today and what changes happen, its been my gut instinct that there would be a slight change later on today in the forcast, then another change by late evening. and tomorrow we would have a problem.  Let's see what happens.

Did all the models just go out to lunch this morning?  Both GFS and NAM are slowing the system down 24 hours!!  In doing so, one might expect some more "digging" of the low while over the southwest.  If that is so, then two things can happen:  1) jet makes a big turn and goes WAY to the north with the system, or 2) low gets cutoff and could turn into a cold core situation.  Hopefully, either way, we eliminate the ice.  We will see, but first the models need to get a handle on the situation.

Its still pretty much up in the air where the front will be isnt it?

i doubt it even starts raining until tomorow evening when we are well above freezing. NO ICE STORM for kc.

Rdub is right.  The temp has to be in below 30 for there to be significant icing.

Temps can be all over the place this time of year.  We can have rapid falls and rises.  Sunday definitely showed us how fast the temps can fall.

I am going to sit back and watch but I have a feeling it is going to be pretty much a rain event for the metro KC area.  If we get any icing here, it will be minor.  I would rather deal with the snow than the ice.  

Kristi

new blog

new blog entry!

Thank you for updating on what the maps looked like...now I just wonder when everything will start.  From the team's last broadcast this morning it seemed it would not start til mid morning which means school would start and then we would all be driving home (whether early or at the end of the school day) in the ice...I almost hope it starts earlier so that we know exactly what to expect and decisions about school can be made easily.  

Brian,
That is liquid precip.  As if I recall, the ice storm in 2002 did not bring us a heavy amount of precip.  Yes, it fell over a 24 hr. period.  I don't believe any of that fell as heavy precip.  (It's been nearly seven years so I selpt since then. :) )  Now the ice storm in March 1984 was accompanied by heavier precip. than the one in 2002.  If someone could tell me how much precip fell during those two events, I would appreciate it.

Kristi