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Ice potential, Christmas Eve, the LRC

A GREAT NEW FEATURE is coming to our weather page on NBCACTIONNEWS.COM Thursday!  Watch NBC Action New tonight at 5, 6, and 10 PM for Kansas City's most accurate forecast (6 years in a row!)

Good afternoon bloggers,

Our next storm is very complex and we know a few things:

  1. It will be dry today
  2. It will be dry tonight
  3. The chance of freezing rain increases Thursday
  4. There is no chance of snow
  5. Northern Missouri is the most likely location for ice accumulation

What we do NOT know yet:

  1. What time will the rain or freezing rain begin?
  2. How much will the temperatures warm up on Thursday?
  3. How much precipitation will fall?

There is potential for some ice on Thursday.  The GFS model warms the surface above freezing by around 6 PM in Kansas City and then the warming continues through the night tomorrow night.  But, at this moment I think this warming is too aggressive.  We will likely see some freezing rain on Thursday or Thursday night.  This is all we really know at this moment.  The counties near the Iowa border have the potential for a small ice storm.  This wouldn't last very long, but it could still present us many problems.  I hope the GFS is right about the warming above freezing.  We will update the blog this evening.

And, there is a chance of snow around Christmas Eve.  The LRC is very complex and this next set up for the weekend and next week lines up well with what happened just 45 days ago in November.  Go to www.LRCWeather.com for the comparison.  Let me know what you think?

An Arctic blast, stronger than this weeks Arctic intrusion, will arrive Saturday night putting us into the deep freeze and frigid air mass by Sunday.  We will analyze this next blast later on in the week.  After it moves in there is a high probability of a storm system bringing us a chance of snow right around Christmas Eve or Christmas Day.  Look below at the latest GFS model showing a storm, which would be snow on this solution, ripping across the plains on Christmas Eve.  The timing of this storm will likely slow down if it is going to be a real storm.  Confidence is growing that we will have snow right around Christmas this year.

Have a fantastic day. I will be finishing this blog in just a few minutes....

Gary

Published Wednesday, December 17, 2008 10:59 AM by glezak

Comments

 

kcroyals05 said:

Will be watching your 10 pm weather cast for sure tonight.   My son William will be flying in from Germany (he's in the Army) early Thursday afternoon.  Will this be a minor or major event towards KCI?

Thanks in advance!!

Bill and Melissa Hale
December 17, 2008 11:35 AM
 

RDub said:

Royals 05, where is his first point of entry? I think that might be a bigger problem than what is happening at KCI. KCI is not a very busy airport so it usually handles weather pretty well, but places like Chicago-O'hare or Newark do not.
December 17, 2008 11:41 AM
 

4caster said:

Gary,
Repeating my thoughts from the previous blog, did all the models just go out to lunch this morning?  Both GFS and NAM are slowing the system down 24 hours!!  In doing so, one might expect some more "digging" of the low while over the southwest.  If that is so, then two things can happen:  1) jet makes a big turn and goes WAY to the north with the system, or 2) low gets cutoff and could turn into a cold core situation.  Hopefully, either way, we eliminate the ice.  We will see, but first the models need to get a handle on the situation.
I totally agree with your Christmas Eve storm thoughts.  I mentioned that a few weeks ago, merely a random thought based on the current pattern.  Just glad to see that a model "might" hint at the same thing.

-----------------

The models have really only slowed this down a few hours.  This is very complex as just  a degree or two makes a HUGE difference on what this will do.

Gary

December 17, 2008 11:44 AM
 

snowcoffee said:

Long time reader, love to "guess" on all sorts of weather, but really love winter-even though it puts a "damper" on my business.  I know I shouldn't watch The Weather Channel but can someone explain why I am getting alerts from them saying tomorrow rain with a high of 47, really?  Tell me they are just plugging in the models and not really looking!!  If it does ice tomorrow in Leavenworth will it also turn to rain and wipe out the ice and snow?
December 17, 2008 11:55 AM
 

kcroyals05 said:

RDub, his point of entry will be Chicago O'Hare - estimated arrival time 1030...
December 17, 2008 11:56 AM
 

bewild79 said:

So Gary,
Throughout the day, we may get some kind of idea as to what will happen, but you should pretty much know by the 10pm cast tonight, right?
Becky
December 17, 2008 11:57 AM
 

Gr8ful Ted said:

2 inches total snow in Leawood at 137th & Roe.  Just a bit more than last week.
December 17, 2008 11:59 AM
 

Weatherornot said:

Gary,

Absolutely amazing blog over at LRCweather.  It is so cool to see things line up for next week.   I do my best to share your information with others and I have learned so much over the past couple of years.  With only a few more hours of day time heating and the temp setting at 14 degrees do you still think we are going to hit a high of 24 degrees by 4pm?   I wonder if we in fact are a few degrees on the warm side for the forecast and would that mean that we will end up being a few degrees colder for the event tomorrow.  
December 17, 2008 12:00 PM
 

4caster said:

Maybe I'm misreading something, so here is the GFS I was looking at.  Showing 00Z for tomorrow night, and the 500mb vort isn't even close to us.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_036l.gif
What did I miss here?
December 17, 2008 12:01 PM
 

heavysnow said:

I have a hard time believing that its going to make it above freezing tomorrow

It is staying in the low to mid teens here in the metro still, its in the teens as far down as Southern KS.  It is in the 20's to low 30's as of now in Oklahoma and only 41 in Dallas.  That air moving over snow pack isn't going to warm up any faster either......
December 17, 2008 12:04 PM
 

RDub said:

Hopefully things will be OK in Chicago at that time...but it really doesn't take much in the way of bad weather to mess up O'Hare. Good luck, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some delays...
December 17, 2008 12:11 PM
 

brian1234 said:

i agree heavysnow,  i don't think the high will dominate, I htink it will be just enough to push the gulf moisture in, but not enough to get temps to go up to 34 degrees or higher. I know I'm going out on a limb here,and i may be wrong, but i'm stickin gto my guns, we'll have a dramatic change in the models today / tonight and i think we;ll still be in cold air tomorrow with temps not warming up much above freezing at all.

there is precip moving into the area right now actually, and it's 14 deg. at the moment.  I have not heard of any reports, but it may not even be reaching the ground.  
December 17, 2008 12:14 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

its slowing down considerably.  a couple days ago there was a chance of the precip beginning tonight and peaking around lunchtime on thursday...now its looking like it may not even start until thursday evening.  thats a little more than a few hours.  this looks like one of the long waves that brought the vort up through west central ks the last time through.  how will the further south jet this time around affect it?
December 17, 2008 12:15 PM
 

simplykristi said:

I am just going to sit back and watch but my feeling at this point tells me that this will cause very little problems for metro KC.

I will take a wait-and-see attitude with the storm next week,

Kristi
December 17, 2008 12:18 PM
 

snowcoffee said:

Just wanted to make sure everyone understands I'm not saying Gary and the crew guess, I think the weather channel does, as well as accuweather unless you pay for the pro site like I do, but even then it seems like a guess.  Ice tomorrow in Leavenworth or not?  
December 17, 2008 12:18 PM
 

brian1234 said:

as I stated earlier pvt murphy, this would be the first change I mentioned yesterday. Another change will be made later on this afternoon or evening.  Have you noticed the moisture entering our area at the moment?  
December 17, 2008 12:31 PM
 

kane1970 said:

No News is Good News I guess. This one sounds like we will have to just wait and see what heppens. +or- 1 degree and things could really change. Looks like the precip. (whatever it is) will start after the morning rush hour though. I hope the storm that you talk about next week will either speed up or slow down. Please don't snow on Christmas ( I mean the Holidays) LOL!!!!!!!!!!!
Thanks for the update!!!!
December 17, 2008 12:32 PM
 

kane1970 said:

No News is Good News I guess. This one sounds like we will have to just wait and see what heppens. +or- 1 degree and things could really change. Looks like the precip. (whatever it is) will start after the morning rush hour though. I hope the storm that you talk about next week will either speed up or slow down. Please don't snow on Christmas ( I mean the Holidays) LOL!!!!!!!!!!!
Thanks for the update!!!!
December 17, 2008 12:32 PM
 

brian1234 said:

lol...kane
December 17, 2008 12:36 PM
 

kane1970 said:

oops
December 17, 2008 12:45 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

I just talked to family in San Diego, CA and it is raining there. I only mention this because a lot of our storms/lows seem to orginate on the West coast.
December 17, 2008 12:49 PM
 

Tinpusher said:

I keep wondering to myself if the temps will get above freezing tomorrow, I think the models have the warm air too aggressive.  This is K.C. after all, I wouldn't be surprised if it did a circle around us and gave us nothing...:-D.  I don't think anybody will now for sure what will happen until tomorrow gets here.
December 17, 2008 12:51 PM
 

bewild79 said:

please no *** please no *** please no ***!!!!! lol
December 17, 2008 12:51 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

I don't believe it yet, anybody noticing the clearing in KS?
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&isingle=single&itype=irbw


If it can clear out for a little bit, then.... well you can guess... :)
December 17, 2008 12:51 PM
 

tageis said:

I wouldn't mind nothing tomorrow - I doubt it but I definitely wouldn't mind it : )
December 17, 2008 12:52 PM
 

pmccabe58 said:

I agree with heavysnow as well I just dont see how it could possibly get above freezing tomorrow. I think you guys know its going to ice but are keeping it from us like the snow we got yesterday :P but I really do believe we will have a minor ice storm tomorrow
December 17, 2008 12:53 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

andrew, i can believe it....its bright out there right now! however, dont get too excited, the temperature has been dropping here since the sun came out.  methinks the clouds were insulating us, but now the warmer air is being pushed out with nothing holding them back...
December 17, 2008 1:04 PM
 

NateB said:

"We will likely see some freezing rain on Thursday or Thursday night. "

I assume this means that tomorrow's morning rush hour should be fine, and there is a chance (I said chance) that it might not start until after the pm rush hour???
December 17, 2008 1:04 PM
 

pmccabe58 said:

Good point andrew it definatly looks like it is clearing and if that clearing gets here tonight it will get cold and wont get close to 32 tomorrow
December 17, 2008 1:08 PM
 

MusicInOlathe said:

*IF* there is the big "I" tomorrow, it still appears that it will happen after or at the tail end of morning rush hour correct?  

All the kids are begging for a snow/ice day on the KS side (maybe not as much as the teachers...), but I doubt it'll start early enough and once we are here we have to stay all day long.
December 17, 2008 1:10 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

Test I'm using the wii internet browser to write this!! :)
December 17, 2008 1:14 PM
 

jacob said:

I don't think much will happen tomorrow.  I just don't feel it.  Plus the Winter Storm Watches are way up in Iowa...not even close to us.  Model data continues to show that the freezing precipitation will be way to our north.

In the way of no school tomorrow, (most have a 1/2 day anyway) IF we were to have any type of freezing precip, it would be after lunch time tomorrow, so they would have school tomorrow.  So I say...there will be school, so don't get any hopes up.  I really don't think we will be getting much of anything in the way of winter weather.

Now its time to pay attention to the very cold air heading our way for the weekend and next week.  We also have to watch for the slight chance of snow around Christmas.  I don't buy a white Christmas right now, but that MAY change as we head into next week.

Everybody have a nice day...and enjoy the cold!

Jacob Honeycutt
December 17, 2008 1:14 PM
 

pmccabe58 said:

It was supposed to be around 20 degrees at noon here and its only 13 now. Anyone else seeing this ice storm coming together pretty good?
December 17, 2008 1:14 PM
 

simplykristi said:

I just looked at observations for KCI and Lee's Summit.  The temps are slowly rising not falling.

You all talking about the clear skies in western KS?  Looks like the rest of KS has clouds with breaks in them.  It's 39 degrees in Goodland as of the latest observations.  The rest of the state is in the 20s.

Kristi
December 17, 2008 1:17 PM
 

JHAWK23 said:

The NWS HWO

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH...FROM CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL TRIGGER
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA...STARTING AS EARLY
AS LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
CRITICAL ELEMENT IN THE FORECAST WILL BE HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES
WARM BEFORE THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND HOW FAR NORTH THE FREEZING LINE MOVES. AT
THE CURRENT TIME...FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND EXTREME EAST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS...AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST...GENERALLY FROM
THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA TO FAYETTE AND MOBERLY. LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MAY FORM IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THIS SAME AREA BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND CHANGE THE FREEZING
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH.

December 17, 2008 1:22 PM
 

Brent said:

you have a wii andrew?...those are hard to use for typing
December 17, 2008 1:22 PM
 

Chris said:

It takes just the perfect setup for an ice storm....31-32 degrees just won't do it...Once it starts raining the rain will warm up the air even more...We'll know a lot more tomorrow morning, this is probably a storm that will be a "now casting", too close to call for KC.
December 17, 2008 1:23 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

jacob,

Let me remind you that every storm system that gave Kansas City accumulating snow so far was forecasted to put the snow to our north (even the 12z Monday models had yesterday's snow missing us almost entirely and hitting southern Iowa) - until the 00z model runs the night right before the storm.
December 17, 2008 1:23 PM
 

Brent said:

pmccabe58 said:
It was supposed to be around 20 degrees at noon here and its only 13 now. Anyone else seeing this ice storm coming together pretty good?

Good point..I am not sure the warm air will be so strong...
December 17, 2008 1:23 PM
 

RDub said:

It is 20 degrees downtown and 17 at the airport. I don't know where this "it's only 13 now" is coming from.
December 17, 2008 1:27 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

Charles B Wheeler Downtown Airport
Lat: 39.12   Lon: -94.6   Elev: 758
Last Update on Dec 17, 12:54 pm CST


Fair

20°F
(-7°C)

December 17, 2008 1:28 PM
 

twister11 said:

even if we do get ice that morning/afternoon. we will warm up late that day, and receive rain so it doesnt look like the ice would stay around for that long.
December 17, 2008 1:28 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

Great point f00dl3.

The 00Z models will likely tell the tale tonight.

In my location in Lee's Summit it has been warmin all day.

I am currently sitting at 22 degrees..
December 17, 2008 1:29 PM
 

pmccabe58 said:

RDub i dont know where you are getting 20 downtown.... its 13 degrees here in kc where i am at
December 17, 2008 1:32 PM
 

marlina10 said:

I would love to see snow on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day!
December 17, 2008 1:32 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

yah, Brent it is, I love the wii though!! But it can't play videos in the browser or I haven't go it to...yet :(
December 17, 2008 1:32 PM
 

brian1234 said:

for the record  the temp here in Op is 15 degrees. Yes the sun is starting to peak out, but it will take the blanket off of us. the sun may warm us a little, and if it clouds up again when the moisture arives, and the low pressure overrides the blanket of warmer arid we have, we should expect more precip than expected and an icing if the temps hold around 30-31 deg. that is of course only one possible setup.
December 17, 2008 1:35 PM
 

pmccabe58 said:

We still dont even know if it will get above 32 degrees so idk why you guys are assuming it will... it is clearing out in western Kansas as Andrew said and that should get here by tonight. If that does happen our temperatures are going to drop alot lower than expected, which will cause a greater chance for icing
December 17, 2008 1:35 PM
 

suz01 said:

hi folks... was trying to get to nbcactionnews.com to check Gary's forecast and it looks like it got highjacked. I get something like CDNetworks Testpage".

Can somebody else try? Not sure where to report the problem.
December 17, 2008 1:36 PM
 

pmccabe58 said:

correction 16 degrees
December 17, 2008 1:37 PM
 

brian1234 said:

pmcabe, i'm on the same page with you brother!
December 17, 2008 1:43 PM
 

billinlawrence said:

Good early afternoon everybody!!

Ok, my last random observations for a while as my 2 boys get home from school in less than an hour!! Here comes the igloo project!! These are based off of the 19Z surface charts:

1. The surface high I think is now located just east of Jefferson City-it is drifiting more east than south but at 19z, we have begun the return flow-as always, I think??

2. The skies have cleared here in SW Lawrence-I really doubt we drop off much tonight as with the high to our east we will be in that return flow.

3. The warm air boundry line I think is now located in the West Texas Panhandle back to just south of Dallas and then up through far Western Kansas-in the West Texas Panhandle there is a spread of temps. from 65 to 40 in a very small distance and as Simpli Kristi said Goodland is at 35 and Colby is already at 30-will be interesting to watch the progression of that tonight into tomorrow morning.

4. One interesting thing I think to watch on the models is how they handle/the timing of that very strong trough right now commig into the Seattle region-if that is moving quicker than the models have thought it could suppress the Thursday system somewhat as it ejects out giving it a more southern starting point before it comes North East-just a thought that I'm not sure if it is right or not!!

5. Finally, I am still going to give this vort. a few choice words as it comes over my head Friday-man-a beautiful winter landscape wiped out because this vort. just had to get some KC Barbecue-man!!! Ok I'm joking here-well only partly!!! LOL I still am imagining what could have been if this could have tracked about 200 miles further south and just stayed on an eastern course once it hit SW Kansas-but it has to have its barbecue!!!

Have a great afternoon everybody-I'm off to pile up snow for an igloo. Oh-welcome back Simplikristi-it is great to see you back in the Blog!!!

Bill in Lawrence
December 17, 2008 1:43 PM
 

kellyann said:

I was in Olathe and it was 17 and I have been in OP for 15 min and it is 20 degrees.
December 17, 2008 1:46 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

Folks,

With a storm approaching from the southwest tonight and drawing in alot of moisiture associated with it, there is NO way it clears tonight.

Id bet everything I own that it is atleast mostly cloudy tonight.
December 17, 2008 1:47 PM
 

kellyann said:

pmccabe, are you near Leavenworth? Some patients said they came from there and it was 16 degrees.
December 17, 2008 1:49 PM
 

bellgolfMU12 said:

bill i was thinking the same thing. Simplikristi had not been around in awhile. its good to have her back. the blog missed her
December 17, 2008 1:49 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

Can we expect the pattern for December to roll into January as well in terms of intensity?
December 17, 2008 1:51 PM
 

RDub said:

"RDub i dont know where you are getting 20 downtown.... its 13 degrees here in kc where i am at"

I'm getting 20 from the official observation at the downtown airport. I don't know where you are or how you are measuring temperature, so I'm sticking with official numbers. My thermometer in OP was saying 25 over lunch but I know that is too high because the sun is coming out.
December 17, 2008 1:52 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

I'll second that, Welcome back simplykristi. You have been missed.
Audra
December 17, 2008 1:53 PM
 

heavysnow said:

In regards to Temperature

as of 1:10 reports....

Witchita was still 20 degrees, Springfield 27, Tulsa 31 and Dallas 44.  Arkansas in the Mid 30's

Not a lot of warm air in place down there either that has to go over snow pack
December 17, 2008 1:54 PM
 

RDub said:

"The skies have cleared here in SW Lawrence-I really doubt we drop off much tonight as with the high to our east we will be in that return flow."

good point bill. just because it clears out, that doesn't automatically mean the temps will drop, especially on the back side of a high.
December 17, 2008 1:55 PM
 

Mammatus said:

I have 16 degrees here in Olathe.  Like Adam said, the 00Z models tonight will pretty much tell all. Moisture is already increasing and we will probably see some type of precip tonight as well.
December 17, 2008 1:56 PM
 

RDub said:

heavysnow, those temps are more than warm enough to prevent an ice storm. no one is expecting the temp to rise to 60 tomorrow, just to 32+.

Also, the snow pack to our south is not that big of a deal. the warm air moves in above the surface then mixes down.
December 17, 2008 2:00 PM
 

RodB said:

Not that I would wish us into an ice storm but let's not forget that Monday the models consistently shifted south with each run pushing us further and further into the heavier snows on Tuesday.  As always, it will be a fun one to track and much to learn!
December 17, 2008 2:05 PM
 

brian1234 said:

i'M GOING TO SOND LIKE A REAL GEEK HERE, BUT WITH THE LOW THAT HAS CLOSED OFF THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST, AND THE LOW OVER NEW MEXICO, WHICH HAS A VERY WEEK IMPACT, THERE ARE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE OVER UTAH AND NAVADA. THOSE WILL BE AREAS THAT WILL IMPACT US TOMORROW, HOWEVER, A LOW HAS DROPPED IN OVER COLORADO AT THIS TIME AND THE ARTIC SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH  MAY SQUEEZE OUT THE SYSTEM, IT'S A SLIM CHANCE , BUT IS REMOTLY POSSIBLE. IF THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES , I DON'T THINK IT WILL LAST FOR LONG, AND YES WHILE WE COULD SEE A WARMING TRENT IT WILL NOT BE PROFOUND LIKE IT WAS ON SUNDAY, IT IS EASIER FOR TEMPS TO DROP DURRING THIS SEASONAL PATTERN FROM WORM TO COLD, THAN IT IS FROM REALLY COLD TO WARM, THAT FAST.  I JUST DONT SEE IT HAPPENEING. I WILL BE INTERESTED TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS HERE IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
December 17, 2008 2:09 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

NAM @ 18z looks even warmer - I think Kansas City is safe from this one. The temperature profiles just are not there to support significant ice accumulation in the KC area.
December 17, 2008 2:11 PM
 

brian1234 said:

also another thing,. the NWS called for tomorrows highs in the mid to lower 40's.  Today they have dropped it to the mid 30's.   I believe that this is a trend that will continue throughout the day today. I think we will be just below and at times right at freezing for tommorrow.

also the high for today was supposed to be in the mid to lower 30's. the NWS has now said the highs should only be in the mid 20's.  Currently in overland park, the temp is 17 deg.  and we are nearing the "heat of the day"  approaching 3:00. typically.  This of course dones not take into consideration warmer air along with moisture moving into the area later.
December 17, 2008 2:15 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

RDub,

I completely agree. Temperatures down near Springfield/Joplin and futher south will warm to near, and in some cases, just above freezing. Much of that snowpack(which down to south MAY be 2 inches) will be eroded today.

I remember back when we had the significant ice storm back i believe in 2002, Gary showed a graph on the air of a temperature scale, equating it to temperatures.

I remember he said with surface temperatures at 30-32, a major ice storm could not take place. Temps must stay below 30 at all times for that to occur.

Anyone willing to say temps will stay below 30 all day tomorrow?? Not a chance that happens.
December 17, 2008 2:15 PM
 

Nick Rau said:

tough, tough, tough...  there are so many ways this could go it is crazy either way, looks to be a foggy, sloppy mess for tomorrow evening into tomorrow night, with a warm front coming over snowpack and warm precip. falling into cold air... down to the wire for St. Joe.
December 17, 2008 2:15 PM
 

RDub said:

brian, are you sure those are the actual NWS forecasts? or are those the automated forecasts often seen on the weather channel and other outlets? i never heard a serious forecaster forecast highs in the 30s today or 40s tomorrow, even though the automated forecasts were.
December 17, 2008 2:22 PM
 

Mammatus said:

It is interesting that the Topeka and Pleasant hill NWS offices have not released any HWO's yet. Maybe they are trying to decide if they are going to issue a Winter storm watch?
December 17, 2008 2:23 PM
 

twinkiekid said:

I will say it.  Temps will stay below 30.  Do I get the cruise now? - sorry, old recycled joke.

I really do not want it to rain tomorrow.  Can't it just flurry a little?  It would be cool to keep adding on to the snowpack for Christmas.
December 17, 2008 2:25 PM
 

simplykristi said:

I just don't see an icing event for KC...  I think that you will have to go to far northern MO for any significant icing.   I think that St. Joe will be on the edge.

The temp has to be below 30 degrees before any significant icing occurs.  The warm air is going to win out on this one, folks.

The storm for next week is too far out to call...  I am waiting and seeing,

Thanks for the welcome backs, folks.

Kristi
December 17, 2008 2:29 PM
 

RDub said:

The new NAM really slows the storm down and brings in even more warmer air. It's an off-hour run, though....
December 17, 2008 2:40 PM
 

kcten81 said:

I haven't read all the previous comments so if this question has been addressed then disregard...but when was the last time we had a "white Christmas" in KC.  I've lived here since December of '87 and can't remember one.
December 17, 2008 2:45 PM
 

brian1234 said:

rdub,

i was stating what the NWS had posted over the past 48 hours or so and what their forcasting trends were, and pointing out the fact that the temps have been forcasted have been substantially higher than what the actual temps turned out to be.  It was just a pattern I was following.

December 17, 2008 2:48 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

I will wait to the 00Z runs this evening, but Ive felt all along that the warm air will win out.

Its said it all along, and I see no evidence why it will change now.

The high pressur area has now moved east, and return flow is now underway.

Temps will warm into the low 30's through southern missouri this afternoon. That area will likely reach the upper 40's tomorrow.

It's about time to begin to look towards next week. This one is just about over....
December 17, 2008 2:50 PM
 

twister11 said:

mammatus- the HWO was out at 1 this afternoon.
December 17, 2008 2:50 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Untill Tonight at the Latest. Will I buy anything. The past 3 storms have played Tricks untill the Final Night.

So ill say that Untill tonight. Im forecasting freezing rain
December 17, 2008 2:52 PM
 

chfs327 said:

There is no HWO out now.
December 17, 2008 2:54 PM
 

xrayfire01 said:

Seems like everyone has some form of modelitis
December 17, 2008 2:54 PM
 

chfs327 said:

And also. The NWS has a high of 38 for Olathe Tomorrow. So apparntly they dont even know
December 17, 2008 2:55 PM
 

bewild79 said:

twister,
is there another place to find the HWO than the SPC site?  If not then they don't currently have one out.
December 17, 2008 2:56 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Hello Kristi, lol..some things have changed in your absence.  ;-)

I love the banter about will it or won't it from everyone.  I love the fact people are looking and researching different aspects to make sense of it all.  These events can be quite a learning experience.

I for one am done with the models for this upcoming storm.  I sensed a southern shift and thought it should deepen.  That said, data from surface obs and sats will provide the best information at this point.  I do not trust the models with the low level shelf of cold air, their reaction to snow cover and the placement of the ULL

It think it is close, but still a bit off.  Using the LRC helps gain confidence where this thing should dig and eject.  Pvt, you nailed that on the head with the longwave.

Understanding where the surface low is now, and how it is building is a key to where you look for data.  Bill nailed that one on the head as well.  I cannot say much about the chest puffing and the told ya so's.  I have had my share in the past, and can't really critique others for doing it.  I do find it amusing to watch though.  If anyone is right on their prediction, it will be a big "I CALLED IT FIRST!", yet if missed, likely no mention of the error.

It all a learning experience, and I think this kind of interest and collaboration is great!  I wonder how many foilks that do end up right will be right for the wrong reason?  

Anyway...its all fair game, and fun to watch.  I think I will stay out of the fray, watch the obs/sats, and make my own sense out of it all.  It is very complicated, and can completely shift outcomes on some very small changes.

But..I guess many in their own minds already have it figured out...so, I guess we will see what happens.:-)
December 17, 2008 2:57 PM
 

twister11 said:

kristi how is ur mom and dad doin?
December 17, 2008 2:59 PM
 

Mammatus said:

http://ruc.fsl.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_dev/.//+sa1_temp+am+30

I like the temp profiles on this one for tomorrow eve. We are in the 25-35 temp spread. I would say 30 degrees will be the highest we get, based on this experimental map of course.
December 17, 2008 3:00 PM
 

twister11 said:

Um ya its out. It was issued at 1 09 this afternoon-
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=eax&product=HWO&issuedby=eax&glossary=1
December 17, 2008 3:03 PM
 

Jason said:


"It's about time to begin to look towards next week. This one is just about over...."

You are suggesting Gary just not look at this storm because it might..MIGHT..get above freezing? The truth is you do not know and no one really does for that matter, Gary even stated he thinks the models are too aggressive with the warm air. So overlook the storm, and say icing does occur, nice call. Do not start looking away from this storm until the storm has exited.
December 17, 2008 3:03 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

kcten,

If in this question "when was the last time we had a "white Christmas" in KC. " you mean having snow on the ground for Christmas, you have to go way back to just last year as there was recorded snow on the ground for many official sites in or near the metro.
December 17, 2008 3:04 PM
 

nicknack said:

Gary,
Have you been working on your dart game?  45 days?  sounds a lot like my 44 days I was talking to you about and that it would snow on Dec. 26th.  I was close.  Maybe closer than you throwing a bullseye.  But you did win one game.  And you were right on with the 55 day LRC and the storm Tuesday.  Keep up the good work!
December 17, 2008 3:04 PM
 

camatz6 said:

Where do you find the watches and hwo's????
December 17, 2008 3:05 PM
 

danno44 said:

HWO is here:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=eax&product=HWO&issuedby=eax
December 17, 2008 3:06 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

chfs327 said:
"Untill Tonight at the Latest. Will I buy anything. The past 3 storms have played Tricks untill the Final Night.

So ill say that Untill tonight..."

Me too, I agree, waiting till the 00z data is out!  
December 17, 2008 3:07 PM
 

RDub said:

Models do have a problem with shallow cold air, no question about that. But even when you take that into consideration, you end up above freezing in KC. The recent NAM run has the 10 degrees C line approaching KC. 50 degrees F! That's obviously too warm. But even if that is off by 10-15 degrees, it still means no ice storm in KC.

And let me say again, the snow cover in the area is marginal at best. This is not a case where we have 6"+ of packed down snow covering a wide area. It will have little to no effect on surface temps.
December 17, 2008 3:10 PM
 

OPIchabod said:

NWS has issued a Freezing Rain Advisory starting tonight for portions of southeast and southcentral Kansas, including Wichita.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KSZ070&warncounty=KSC073&firewxzone=KSZ070&local_place1=4+Miles+NNW+Hamilton+KS&product1=Freezing+Rain+Advisory
December 17, 2008 3:11 PM
 

MikeandJenn said:

Mammatus - I agree.  I have thought all day long that it is odd for the NWS to not have some sort of Hazardous Weather Outlook in place for us.  There is one in place for way south of us and way north of us, but not here in KC.

My question is why they don't have one?  Their latest forecast is for little or no ice accumulation.  I would think that the possibility of ice would warrant a HWO, so maybe they are convinced that there will be zero ice.

Mike and Jenn in Lee's Summit
December 17, 2008 3:12 PM
 

chfs327 said:

BTW, Freezing rain Advisory out for Iola Kansas
December 17, 2008 3:14 PM
 

DaveC said:

Andrew, I would tend to agree, over the last 2 storms we have had, the forecasts have appeared to underestimated everything. It's probably still premature for anyone to say with any certainty either way.
December 17, 2008 3:15 PM
 

Emmysmom said:

Yikes!! All of this "it will"/"it wont" get warm enough stuff is making my head hurt!!  : )  I dont know who to listen to...so I suppose I'll just wait until I wake up tomorrow morning and see what everyone thinks : )  As long as I can get to work in the morning, I'll just have to deal with whatever we do get when its time to leave.

Is it spring yet?  Wait...spring wasn't so great either, with the tornados and severe weather..how about summer.  Summer was pretty calm. : )
December 17, 2008 3:17 PM
 

bewild79 said:

twister,
Where did you find it?  I went to spc site and did not find it.  Thanks for posting it so I could read it though!
Becky
December 17, 2008 3:17 PM
 

MikeandJenn said:

Thanks for the HWO link, Danno44.  Something caught my eye at the end of the HWO:

"ALTHOUGH THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR NORTH THE FREEZING LINE WILL GO DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER. THUS THE AREA RECEIVING MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE MAY SHIFT IN FUTURE FORECASTS."

Sounds like the NWS (along with most of us!) aren't so sure about this no ice potential.
December 17, 2008 3:18 PM
 

RDub said:

The HWO comes out every day whether or not any hazardous weather is expected.

I think a freezing rain advisory is probably warranted. There probably will be some period of freezing rain before it changes to rain.
December 17, 2008 3:18 PM
 

bewild79 said:

It is wierd how easily summer and spring storms can be predicted and how winter storms are so the opposite.  Why is that?
Becky
December 17, 2008 3:21 PM
 

JHAWK23 said:

Mikeandenn....The NWS in pleasant hill.....issues a HWO twice a day sometimes more......usually around 6am and then agiain around 1 pm.......each NWS site varies on how often and what time they issue them....
December 17, 2008 3:21 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

Jason,

You must have missed this part of my entry...

" I will wait to the 00Z runs this evening"

        or from another post earlier....

"Great point f00dl3.

The 00Z models will likely tell the tale tonight."

I have also stated on a previous blog, that we are now 2 for 2 on storm systems making a big jog south on the 00Z model runs 12 hours before the event. So yes, I did not say IT IS over, i just feel that is ABOUT over. The fat lady hasnt sang yet...


The great thing about this blog is it allows everyone to express their own opinions. I do not think I have been rude to anyone on here. I just give my thoughts just like everyone else.

I feel the warm air is going to win out. Most people probably dont like that I feel that way, and that is ok.


You also said this...

"You are suggesting Gary just not look at this storm because it might..MIGHT..get above freezing?"

I have said on many previous blogs that my thoughts are just that, my thoughts. I have no contact from Gary other than what he says to me in response to my blog comments. Im sorry if you feel like that, but nowhere in my post does it mention Gary's name at all.

"So overlook the storm, and say icing does occur, nice call."

I understand your point here, however, I do not draw a paycheck from KSHB or any meteorological association, so I am free to express my opinion in any appropriate fashion. If I were in Gary's shoes, I would absolutey 100% be playing it the way he is. There are alot of variables that play into this situation.

I would bet if Gary or any other member of the the team were just an educated spectator, Im sure they would be telling more of their gut instinct at this point.
December 17, 2008 3:24 PM
 

Jennifer and Kelsey said:

Since Kristi is back I'll tell everyone i'm back too.  I've been checking in every now and then but work has made it such that my occupation has taken priority over my vocation...HOWEVER when you've been a member of this blog since it's inception it's hard to break free.

I just looked at observations for KCI and Lee's Summit the warm air is building.  Scott I totally agree...I do not trust the models with the low level shelf of cold air, their reaction to snow cover and the placement of the ULL.

We shall know more soon...

Jennifer
December 17, 2008 3:27 PM
 

Mammatus said:

It sure looks like we are in the "?" area because they have no idea where the freezing line will end up. Since they are saying the "rain only" event is from Paola southward, puts us in the the transition area. I dunno, I would think that we will be under a freezing rain advisory soon. It looks to be much colder than the initial forecasts predicted. We still have to wait for the 00z model runs to come out to get a better idea. The low is still trending further south as well.
December 17, 2008 3:27 PM
 

Chris said:

So I was digging through some old storage bins and found this:

http://img293.imageshack.us/img293/1614/garyal0.jpg

I think I was like 8-10 years old when I wrote Gary.
December 17, 2008 3:31 PM
 

brian1234 said:

THAT WAS AWESOME JASON!!
December 17, 2008 3:33 PM
 

twister11 said:

awesome chris!!!
December 17, 2008 3:33 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Hi Scott,
A little birdie told me...  Congrats! :)  Someone gave me the link...  Very cool :)  Finally all your work has paid off. :)

Hi Tyler or anyone,
Just send me a private message and I will fill you end on what's happened.  (I can never figure out how to send a private message here. LOL )  

It sounds like the Wichita NWS is expecting light accumulations.  The advisory is in effect from midnight to 3 PM.  Even that office is expecting the temps to warm up.

Kristi
December 17, 2008 3:33 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

I can't help myself.

Here is the moisture
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/wcwv.html

And does this look like fun?
http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_dev/.//+sa1_ptype+am+27

- or - does this combination look fun?

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref_matrix_hover.php?startdate=2008121715&field=SREF_LIKELY_CZYS__&fhr=f024

and

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_024l.gif

Make sure to watch Gary/team for the latest changes!  ;-)
December 17, 2008 3:38 PM
 

NateB said:

What time are the 00z model runs?  6:00pm?
December 17, 2008 3:40 PM
 

brian1234 said:

I think its amusing when others copy and paste posts others have written and then pick the post appart, in an attempt to make themselves look good infront of the others.   Talk about disrespectful, ego problems, or quite possibly compensation for some personal deficiency perhaps???
December 17, 2008 3:42 PM
 

shoedog said:

Bummer, my old hometown area is going to get about 6 plus inches of snow up in Iowa, too bad didn't go south.  Last year we were up there for Christmas and had a nice 6 inch snow two days before Christmas.
December 17, 2008 3:43 PM
 

simplykristi said:

The NWS here issued an HWO for the forecast area.  Why is that HWO not showing up on the map?  BTW, there is an Ice Storm Warning for far NE MO and SE IA.

Kristi
December 17, 2008 3:44 PM
 

jdshuck said:

Forecast from another station.  Seems odd they have the freezing rain on friday.  I'll stick with Leezak.

THURSDAY Cloudy   High: 34 Low: 20
FRIDAY Cloudy Freezing Rain- 100%   High: 35 Low: 27
SATURDAY Cloudy   High: 31 Low: 20
SUNDAY Cloudy 30% Chance Snow   High: 14 Low: 2
MONDAY Cloudy  
High: 12 Low: -4
TUESDAY Partly Cloudy   High: 21 Low: 10
WEDNESDAY Cloudy  
December 17, 2008 3:45 PM
 

GaryB said:

Scott, good job on the advertisement.  You've done a great job of showing us and not telling us what the TEAM will think will happen.  Get off the soap box and get back to what you used to do....
December 17, 2008 3:47 PM
 

homerun said:

Hi to everyone and to the weather team---It is 22 here in Topeka and watches and advisories are being issued all around us.  The question I have is will we have a winter storm watch issued or a freezing rain advisory?  Thanks, Michael/Topeka/Berryton
December 17, 2008 3:48 PM
 

RDub said:

hmm, scott, thought you were done with the models. guess you had to find one that gave you the answer you wanted to see. even so, the GFS frame you posted shows the 0 C line north of the heavy precip.
December 17, 2008 3:50 PM
 

MikeandJenn said:

Chris - that picture is hilarious.  Care to comment Gary?!?!?  Ah, to be young again!


December 17, 2008 3:51 PM
 

mamaof3girls said:

WOW....I walk away from the blog for the afternoon and simplykristi and Jennifer check in. It has been along time...good to see your names again. Kristi it is really weird that you checked in today...I have been thinking and wondering about you and your family. Hope you have something to smile about!!! Welcome..you both have been missed.
Monica
Pleasanton, KS
December 17, 2008 3:53 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

Well obviously I have underestimated the amount of emotion that goes into these storms.

I am here to talk about the weather, and not personally attack anyone. I will say once again if I have offended everyone, I do apologize with everything I have.

Brian1234, obviously you havent gotten over what I said to you yesterday. It was my mistake to say anything in the first place. Again, I apologize. Please forgive me for my actions.

I only want to be a contributing member of this blog. I enjoy everyones input and prescence here.


It is now becoming obvious I need to reevaluate some of the things I am saying in here. Ill take a step back and do that.

Again, I apologize...
December 17, 2008 3:56 PM
 

RDub said:

Scott, any idea why the 0C line on this GFS output looks further north than the one you posted? They should be the same, as they are from the same model run.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_024l.gif
December 17, 2008 3:57 PM
 

kellyann said:

Kristi, So glad to see you here again. How can I private message you? or does anyone else know? I wrote you some a year ago and last spring (early) and have always wondered how things were. Thanks, Kelly
December 17, 2008 4:01 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

you guys all think your so smart. Scott. why aren't you the one telling us what is the deal and what isn't. I see too many amateurs telling me the forecast tomorrow. It's irritating. Scott. I wanna know what YOU think. Did I mention that your gut is not a good forecasting tool.
December 17, 2008 4:01 PM
 

beckysma said:

Awww!  I love the pic of Gary and Windy!  I miss her!
December 17, 2008 4:01 PM
 

kellyann said:

Kristi, my parents are in near Bethany, Mo and they said a few minutes ago that they are in a watch, I don't know what kind because it was left on my voice mail. It would be nice if the freezing line was a smidge farther north of them, like right on the Mo/Iowa border.
December 17, 2008 4:03 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

by the way FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES are going up left and right
December 17, 2008 4:04 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Freezing Rain Advisory for most of the Topeka NWS area.

Kristi
December 17, 2008 4:04 PM
 

heavysnow said:

The 41 Team has asked that you not post forecast by other stations until AFTER the fact.  Why can't people just do that?
December 17, 2008 4:05 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Rdub, I am not using the thickness product in my link.  I am showing 2M temps.  I disregard the 1000/500 thickness maps in these types of set ups as they are not especially helpful in showing the inversion in different layers.

Garyb, I guess I am puzzled to your response as I have continued to be about as straight forward as I can....  anyway, read if you choose..or not.
December 17, 2008 4:08 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Still a watch up in that area.  Let's see what NWS does with it in the next few hours.  It looks like NE MO and southern IA and central IL are going to get hit with an ice storm.

Kristi
December 17, 2008 4:09 PM
 

RDub said:

Bethany is in a whole different world with this storm than KC is. They are in a winter storm watch and will probably see significant ice accumulations.

Freezing rain advisories will probably be posted for KC as they are for Lawrence and other areas. Remember that the advisories are lower-level compared to winter storm watches and warnings. Basically an advisory is for weather that is inconvenient but not really dangerous.
December 17, 2008 4:10 PM
 

heavysnow said:

Freezing Rain Advisories all around plus Ice Storm Warnings for Mo/Iowa Border.  

Winter Storm Warnings for Central Iowa.  

Remember when we got put under Winter Storm Warnings last year?  :-)
December 17, 2008 4:11 PM
 

Northlander said:

It was bad weather when I left Kansas City about a year ago.  I just left the wonderful Waziristan area of Afghanistan, 36 hours ago and the weather was lousy, SNOW.  I really need to find a better area’s of the world to live and work in.   I’ am glad to see Scott is still posting, is Notes still posting?
December 17, 2008 4:14 PM
 

brian1234 said:

Guys and also gals,

Lets not insult eachother,. ok. As much as we all want to be right, we also have to be respectful torwards others.  I personally can relate.  But if Scott wants to post information, let him post it and leave it at that.  This is not a contest who is right and wrong, nor is it very classy at all you degrade someone because of what their opinion of what will happen tomorrow or any other time. it is their forcast.  it's important to look at all aspects in what they are saying.  It's ok to question it, but do it effectivly.  Email, text or blogging is tricky because you can't tell the tone of voice being used obviously.  Please make an effort to make sure that what you type can't be miscommunicated for hostility, critisisim, or arogance, it's easy to do, just try and make the effort.  Each and every one of us in here have very good knowlege of weather and patterns.  If we were a weather team we'd tear eachother's throats out.  Lets work together and share ideas with eachother, not critisize eachother.  
December 17, 2008 4:16 PM
 

MikeL said:

RDub, Scott's chart is showing the 2m temp and not the 850mb temp...
December 17, 2008 4:17 PM
 

JoeKC said:

I just talked to my brother in Las Vegas.  They're in the midst of a winter storm warning with 3-6 inches of snow forecast, even for the Strip.  I'll bet they're a lot of surprised tourists.  The forecast had been for rain.  This is the storm heading our way.
December 17, 2008 4:18 PM
 

RDub said:

"Rdub, I am not using the thickness product in my link.  I am showing 2M temps"

Yeah, me too. I'm talking about the 0 C line in the 2 meter temps as well.
December 17, 2008 4:18 PM
 

RDub said:

Mike, ok, I thought they were both 2m temps. My mistake. Even at 2 meters, though, the 0 C line is north of the heaviest precip.
December 17, 2008 4:19 PM
 

rymac said:

I have been pouring over all the data and let me say that the view out my window is better meteorology than the models. In case you haven't noticed there is a moisture flow from the southwest already over us. The cloud deck will keep us from bottoming out tomorow. This may sound stupid but i think maybe we should be more worried about flash floods tomorow from all the run off and snow melt.
Anyways, have a great evening, keep up on the temps. enjoy the idea that iowa is going to be without power tomorow and us in mo will be able to take hot showers and watch tv, and oh YA BLOG!
December 17, 2008 4:20 PM
 

kellyann said:

I just looked at all of the advisory's out, it seems KC is in a little hole and surrounded, lol.
December 17, 2008 4:21 PM
 

simplykristi said:

According to the NWS forecast for Bethany, Kellyann, it looks like up to one-half inch of ice for that area.  I suspect that Bethany will be placed under some type of warning...  either winter storm or ice storm warning.  

Kristi
December 17, 2008 4:22 PM
 

kellyann said:

New blog, kinda
December 17, 2008 4:23 PM
 

Brent said:

Gary has a 32 high tomorrow!!! plus it may clear out tonight I see sunshine.
December 17, 2008 4:23 PM
 

Randy KD0FFO said:

Gary,
Lisa is wondering if she should leave tonight to go back to maryville from chillicothe, if she left tomorrow it likely would be around 1 or 2 PM, what would be your advice?
December 17, 2008 4:24 PM
 

shoedog said:

Northlander:

Welcome back and thank you for your service to our country!!
December 17, 2008 4:25 PM
 

kellyann said:

Kristi, that's not good, to many bad things happen in ice storms. Thanks for reporting this Kristi! Gosh, it's so good to have you back :)
December 17, 2008 4:27 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Rdub, if I was model picking, I would have gone with this instead...

http://gfx.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/695_100.gif

or this
http://weather.admin.niu.edu/chaser/tempgif/29122.TXT this
http://weather.admin.niu.edu/chaser/tempgif/29465.TXT or
heck, pick any of the forecast soundings...

Point is, there is still much variance to how this will set up.  Models are still not quite right yet.  Not sure anyone can make a call for or against at this point.
December 17, 2008 4:34 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Brian you are Right i appologize for the way my last comment came off.
December 17, 2008 4:34 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

Just talked to my folks in Northern Los Angeles county. The storm that they are having is "the worst that they have seen in the whole time they have been in California". My step Dad has been in CA for over 30 years. It seems like when CA gets a bad storm, and then it heads towards us, it looses it's power along the way and by the time it gets to us, the storm is pretty wimpy. So question, would CA's storm today be ours tomorrow or would it be the weekends storm?
December 17, 2008 4:35 PM
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