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LOL...what a nasty little storm to forecast.  What will happen with the shallow cold air?  That is the million dollar question.  I wish I knew, but alas...I don't.  Good luck Gary and the weather team.  I believe this is one of those no win situations.  

Later,
Mike in Ottawa

Weird seeing anywhere with the Pleasant Hill NWS is nothin, not even hazordous weather outlook. Just a big white hole in the middle of blue's, purple's and pink's!

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/

I will post this picture link again since there's a new blog:

http://img293.imageshack.us/img293/1614/garyal0.jpg

Gary/Windy, early 90's.

Wow Gary.   Nice hairdo.  : )

Chris you should post that every blog from now on.......

Is freezing rain advisory mean an ice storm? Or just surfaces will get coated with a thin layer of ice? I won't be able to see the news cast since I am at work. Can someone share what Gary says about the ice potential and if he thinks severe power outages may occur.

My farm is total electric and I depend on it to keep stock tanks and heated water buckets from freezing not to mention my family warm.

o gosh our predicted high for thurs was 42 this morning. now they dropped it to 38. garsh.

I figured we would be in a Freezing Rain Advisory since they have been posted to our south, west, and east of us.

Kristi

I wonder if Pleasant Hill is having some issues with their computers or something...they released the zone forecasts with the freezing rain advisory headlines, but the advisories aren't showing up separatey....

Gary,
Lisa is wondering if she should leave tonight to go back to maryville from chillicothe, if she left tomorrow it likely would be around 1 or 2 PM. I told her that she should leave tonight but what would be your advice?

I think we should get Gary to comment on Chris's picture in the Blog!!!! do i here a second? all in favor say "I"

Farmgirl,
It's not an ice storm.  However, there will be glazing on surfaces so just be really careful.  Your area should be the first one to warm up tomorrow afternoon.

Kristi

farmgirl, it's the second one (thin layer). "advisories" in general are weaker than "warnings". that is why there are winter strorm warnings for northern mo but only freezing rain advisories further south.

 FlakeFan said:
Weird seeing anywhere with the Pleasant Hill NWS is nothin, not even hazordous weather outlook. Just a big white hole in the middle of blue's, purple's and pink's!
 
I noticed that, too.  Maybe someone fell asleep out there.

Pleasant Hill just issued there zone forecasts looks like north of st joe near the iowa border there will be an ice storm warning and for the immediate metro a freezing rain advisory.  yuck.... I hate ice

I wonder too, Rdub because the HWO never showed up on the map and there is nothing indicated for a Freezing Rain Advisory for our area.

Kristi

I am from Nevada (West Central MO) and our Advisory does not end until noon. that is when the NWS predicts our temps will finally go above freezing.

wow....that picture is old..lol

freezing rain advisory come to cass county!

did anyone else see 3 degrees for the high on sunday!!!!!!!!!!!!?

twister,
i made that observation a few hours ago,  that has been the curent trend in the past 48 hours, the forcasts have consistantly been about 9-6 degrees off.  any normal day, we wouldn't think twice about questioning this.  however with the current situation, that is night and day , a huge difference.  

my thoughts are that, by this evening there will be yet another change with the forcase and the models showing some positive signs of the metro area getting into a more dangerous situation. I have a hard time believing that the temps will get over 29-32 degrees for tomrrow.  today the highs were supposed to be in the mid 20's the high for today here in op was 18 deg.

We in a yummy donut hole!! I love donuts, ok so I don't have funny joke,etc!!

I'm more concerned with the little article on the weather page that says "Regardless of whether we have an icing situation on Thursday or it is just rain, we could see bigger problems Friday morning."  YIKES!

New 7 day forecast on the main weather page and it shows it staying at 32 or below.  It will be interesting what Gary says

The funny thing about Pleasant hill NWS is that they are keeping the wording of "no ice accumulation" thats a pretty bold statement at this point. I think that is pretty hard to forecast at this point since there are still uncertainties regarding temp and qpf. I think the have no clue as to if they should issue a freezing rain advisory or an Ice storm warning since the northern counties will border the current Ice storm waring issues for southern Iowa. Things have trended south since the Ice storm warning was issued in Iowa.

I made it to 26 today here in Lee's Summit..

He has 5 on his little evening broadcast, so hopefully that is the updated and 3 is the old forecast : )
Feel better?

"the models showing some positive signs of the metro area getting into a more dangerous situation"

as long as you don't count the NAM as a model.

Where is Pleasant hill saying "no ice". They are saying this in the zone forecasts: "Less than a tenth of an inch ice accumulation".

Topeka put all of us here in Jefferson County under a Freezing Rain advisory at 3:51PM.  Ours runs from 6AM Thursday to 3AM Friday, we are supposed to have according to them about 8 hours of freezing rain, then mixing with sleet and snow.  What happened, I liked the idea of only an hour or so of that stuff and then all rain.

If I recall correctly, the Thursday forecast from earlier this week had the freezing rain moving in during the morning, but then as temps rose during the day, the precip would change to all rain.

I've seen a few posts noting the progress of this wave has slowed by a few hours - I'm not sure what the temps are forecast to be Thursday night, but could we have an event that starts as rain Thursday afternoon and then turns to freezing rain Thursday evening?

not colored in yet but if you click on KC area it now has freezing rain advisory issued at 448 pm

Freezing Rain Advisory...  From 6 AM to 6 PM tomorrow... expecting less than a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation.  

Kristi

Freezing rain Advisory now in effect

Wow. Gary just went on the books with a high of 31 and a low of 26 tomorrow night??

What happened to it warming up through the evening??

Wow, this is impressive. If this comes to fruition, its almost time to hit the panic button...

I will be interested to see what is said on the 5 p.m. newscasts.

LOL, love that picture Gary!! You look much better now...more filled out, like a man.

I doubt anyone will have a true handle on this storm tomorrow until it is in full swing. I have a feeling there will be a lot of NOW casting. That is how mother nature works.....if it was all predicable then how boring would that be. :o)

Freezing rain advisory now out for Kansas City:

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MOZ037&warncounty=MOC095&firewxzone=MOZ037&local_place1=2+Miles+SE+Avondale+MO&product1=Freezing+Rain+Advisory

Still calling for less than a tenth of an inch....

Ooops...looks like kristi and chfs327 beat me to the punch:-)

Correction...

32 for a high tomorrow and a low of 26. I was looking at friday's high...lol

i think gary made a typo

simplykristi,

I asked the folks at the NWS about their hazardous weather outlook.  When there is no hazardous weather expected in the 24 hour period (today or tonight) it won't show up on their graphical maps.  

Rdub, they just changed it, it said that no ice accumalation was expected most of the day until the latest forecast for Thursday. The funny thing is, St Joe has a forecast high of 29 and KCI has a forecast high of 36. So essentially our high at KCI could be 29 or St joe's high could be 36 since its so close between St joe and KCI. Guess we will see what happens tomorrow.

Gary, I am really getting  tired of this weather.  Can you tell me when you will NOT put snow/rain/freezing rain in the forecast.  It seems like all you can do is forecast this stuff.  I am sorry but in my mind safety comes first and yes I am tired of this.

-----------------------

Can you imagine a 7 day forecast dry with a warming trend?  It will look so nice. I am sure it is just around the corner, but I don't see it yet.

Gary

yeah well...I think we all saw this coming.

Billy,
Thanks for asking.   I was surprised to read the one on the site that was not posted on the graphical map.  I know that we are on the edge as far as icing goes.

Kristi

It will be interesting to watch what happens -- I do not think that getting above freezing is all that unlikely but the real question is if the conditions will remain favorable as the models predict. Here in stilwell the temps today rose to 24.5 (higher than predicted) so maybe there is hope if temperatures stay around 18 to 20 degrees or start rising after 10 then our chances are improving. We will know in the morning.

Farmgirl - how come and you do not have a back up plan for heating and power? I grew up in a farm and we had backups (natural gas) for both lighting and heat.

John

tageis - Gary does not make the weather he just does a fantastic job predicting it!

tageis,

gary is not god,..lol.. and it literally is his job to forcast this stuff... umm yeah he gets paid for that sort of thing.  kinda a random blog entry that really made no sense.

kristi, sent u a pm.

    I like ice storms AS LONG AS it stays on tree and grass. It must accumulate less than a half inch and none on pavement, like last years!
    I'm woried about cold this winter, already approaching -10 monday morn, and its like the first or second day of winter, not liking January!
    To, me it seems as long as its not average weather I like. So I'm not checking the forecasts until its over or it dosen't happen. IDK why (I feel like a little kid when it snows!) By 'til Thursday Night/Friday Morning everyone!

Aww man I just missed Garys 5:00 forecast what did he say???

pmccabe,

Gary said that temps tomorrow should soar to nearly 109 degrees..lol  
(talk about a warming trend)

Ha :)  I have a tape of Gary when he worked at Channel 4 from June 1994.... He got way excited then and showed passion and its great to see how he's advanced since then and seems to have done well, especially considering his rare form of cancer he had and now he looks really great.

My thoughts on the ice storm (or maybe no ice storm) is the same as everyone else's. This is a very complicated situation where literally forecasting a degree or 2 is going to make a huge difference. I'm glad Im in Wichita now because I think we will be too warm mostly except early in the morning

------------------

JBtornado,

Thank you so much!  1994, that's crazy.  I had hair then.  Anyway, this is a very tough forecast.  There isn't anyone who really knows exactly what will happen.  I am going to make a point on the air that we give the 3 degree Warranty.  It is difficult to get within 3 every day.  Our forecast is off by around 2 degrees on average.  So, tomorrows situation is one where if you are off by one degree there could be a more significant ice storm, not to mention the other problems to this forecast.

Gary

Gary is forecasting 32 tomorrow.  So that is borderline.  And as the warm rain comes down it will warm the air around it like it did last year for us on the south side.  So it will probably be nothing for us down here.  It already warmed up more than they said today. I think the high here was 24.  So it could very easy get to above freezing, at least on the south side of town.  I hope so. I love the ice because it is so pretty, but I do not want an ice storm.  To much destruction to make the pretty be worth it. If it happens I will make the best of it and enjoy the prettiness, but lets just hope it does not happen.  Although I have to admit I am excited.  I do not know why.  I think I just love all weather and the excitement of it all. I am terrified of tornadoes, but I love that time of year.  I may be scared of them but I also have great respect for the beauty of a twister.  I would love to see one someday. I am a true weather addict. LOL

I didn't say he made the weather.  I just have family driving a very long distance and want them to be safe.  Understand?  It is Christmas time you know??

I love that picture, thanks for sharing.  Windy was quite a girl, Windy The WonderWeather Dog :)  I like to think of her forecasting for all the little animals at the Rainbow Bridge, bless her heart.  

Now as for this weather....I am hibernating......back to my cave zzzzzzzzzzz.

It warmed up more than they said today?  I don't think so.  

The forecast high for KC was 23 and it only reached 20.  

tageis I knew what you meant.  I put my order in for a white Christmas with Gary, LOL  But I know very well he can not control the weather.  It is more of a joke, wishful thinking kinda thing.  I didn't get a tongue lashing for my wish though, people must be on edge today.  Don't take it personal.  Not everyone agrees with them.  

24 degrees here today at least.  Cass county MISSOURI!! WOOHOO!! LOL woops I seem to be getting carried away.  Must be something in the air tonight. LOL  I was not home all day but when I did get home I checked and it was 24.  

to follow up with what heavysnw said, it was only about 18 hee in OP. so umm, yeah, there was no warming today.

The forecast called for highs in the 20s.  The reporting stations barely got into the 20s if at all.

Kristi

It felt like a heat wave to day, LOL  24 degrees and no wind.  It was kinda nice.

If we break the 32 mark and go above, there's gonna be some slushy roads out there folks.

I think the good thing is when the temp is near freezing and chemicals are dropped they are more effective, however as the freezing rain turns to rain those chemicals get washed away.

I agree with FlakeFan, Icing is a great sight, especially if it's a glazing on trees and you have a sunny day afterwards, it looks awesome in the morning. Do I like damaging ice... nope, and I feel for those who may get it tomorrow.

If we can get some radiant heat going to keep the temps up we may have a better shot of more rain tomorrow, it would be nice to see if start after morning rush hour (in my case around 0500) and be done to all rain by evening rush hour (about 1600 in my case)

I hope we have a fluke and most viewers miss it...

Gary & Co... Nice job on this pain of a week to forecast. Hopefully things will get less wild and give everyone a breather after Christmas... :)

H.

twistedsisters... today was awesome... it was below freezing, but with no wind, it felt fantastic out there.

H.

does anyone know what is up with the nbc home page?

before you jump into a conversation and snip at someone kiristi, I have been discussing what the NWS has been calling for in the past 48 hours and how that is relevent to inconsistant predictions of temps.  I never specified "reporting stations",.. did I?

My comment was not directed at you or anyone in particular, Brian.  Chill

Kristi

Wow Brian1234, why are you always getting so upset with people here?

Lets all play nice! :)

 
tageis said:

Gary, I am really getting  tired of this weather.  Can you tell me when you will NOT put snow/rain/freezing rain in the forecast.  It seems like all you can do is forecast this stuff.  I am sorry but in my mind safety comes first and yes I am tired of this.

-----------------------

Can you imagine a 7 day forecast dry with a warming trend?  It will look so nice. I am sure it is just around the corner, but I don't see it yet.

Gary
**********************************

No way!! We don't want a warm up, this is winter!!!!!! Snow,Snow,and more snow please!! 3-4Ft of snow!!

I think that it did not get as warm as they said it would today...maybe that will happen tomorrow?

greetings from the ice storm warning captial of trenton.. looking ommnious here.. i've seen a lot of setups like this where we get hammered.. and a lot where it jumps to 40f and we get rain... right now, it looks ncmo is in for an ice storm

I think a lot of people will be tuning into the 10:00 forecast to get the updated predictions on what will happen!

Your living in the wrong place if your wishing for four feet of snow Andrew.

Here ya' go pitch a winter tent on Donner Pass you'll have all the snow your heart desires.

Gary,

Will the new weather stuff be up at 12am Thursday morning?

Well, I got up to 24.5 today. Now the question is-will it warm up like it did last year? I'd like to see Gary's forecast but I keep getting transfered to Detroit.

Man why can't the freezing rain start overnight.  Lawrence never cancels school until after it starts icing.  I will get to work, they will call school, then I will have a terrible time getting home to Tongie.  They didn't call school yesterday and we had tons of mad parents.  Does anyone think we could get an ice storm in the KC metro area?

it's going to be razor thin for me I an 4 miles from Andrew Cnty that has ICE STM WRN currently 15 dead calm....  ERIE

bewild79 said:
"does anyone know what is up with the nbc home page?"
.......................

Don't know what's wrong, but it's been like that all day. I finally got in via this link:
  http://www.nbcactionnews.com/default.aspx

also, I emailed the webmaster about the problem. Don't know if they got highjacked, are doing maintenance, or did an update that went bad on them.

I just checked the temp at the Lee's Summit airport and it is reporting that the high in Lee's Summit today was only 18 degrees. I am not sure where you got 26 degrees from Adam P.? I am really nervous about the next arctic front since my furnace is still not fixed. Luckily I can reset it and get some hot air out of it so we are not freezing.

braysmama,
if you go to a sub search (like google or something) and you put in  nbc action news and there you will find of course the link to the homepage but dont go there....go down to the next where it says something about a story and click there. It will take you to the nbc page and then you can hit home and there you go.  I had to do it to get back here.  I know its alot but its the only way to get there.
becky

gary

i heard you say at 5 that if the temps are off a degree and we dont climb above freezing and stay at say 30 or so that the ice accumulations in the metro would be more.  however i didnt hear you say what the totals would be increased to, can you surmise the increased amount on the blog knowing that its just a hypo and not your forecast?  

weatherfreak,
I can understand what you are saying.  Ours went out in the middle of the night last night and we woke up very cold.  In the process of getting it fixed.
becky

weatherfreak,

I just did a quick check on my weatherbug station.

Interestingly enough for Lee's Summit.

At Pleasant Lea Middle School, which I had my weatherbug set to, registered a high temperature of 26 degrees.

When switching from there to Lee's Summit Municipal Airport, the registered high temperature was 18 degrees.

Thats very interesting....

Okay, I am loving this weather but I am hoping for some snow on christmas eve or day.  I don't want just snow on the ground I want it to actually snow!  At least there is a chance!

I'm tired of wearing "layers" inside the house because one can't afford to keep a comfort level that's healthy due to energy costs these days.

On a lighter note :) Gary, I just got done taking a look at some of the merchandise you have for sale on lrcweather.com -- pretty cool.  I think you should take the picture Chris posted earlier and make a t-shirt out of it, too!!

Adam P...pleasant lea told me 18 degrees today, strange huh? Not saying your lying, just a flaw in the system i guess.

Gary, how about a special promo code for us bloggers to use on the lrc merchandise??

Chris, I have that identical picture of Gary and Windy signed by Gary!  I met Gary and Windy at a chili cookoff in Leavenworth.  He was one of the judges.  That was many years ago.  

Gary, do you remember that incredibly warm October day when you came up to Leavenworth?  Probably not since you go to so many events.  It was actually so hot that I felt compelled to share my glass of water with Windy.  Incidentally, I drank my half first!!!

Edna

Emcat I love the idea of the young Gary picture on a shirt.  It could be a then and now pictures.  The statement could say Kansas City weather will make you pull your hair out LOL

we need a new blog....

I am wondering if anyone in or near Harrisonville, Lees summit, Lone Jack, Pleasant Hill, Holden and the surrounding areas could post their current temps.  I am wondering if my outdoor thermometer is correct as it still says 20.9 degrees.  Everyone else says it did not get that warm today (I was at 24) and that it is cooler than 20 now.  My thermometer is either off or I am in a warm bubble. Just wondering, Thanks in advance!

LOL -- Good one Holmes!!

i'm reading 18.0 degrees in SE lee's Summit

Twistedsisters it is 19 in Greenwood.

hey Gary and all-  I posted before the Tuesday snow so my post got washed away in the excitement.  So anyways...I have a flight tomorrow at 7pm to go back to California.  Should I be worried about delays out of KCI?  Or even cancellations?  Let alone I have to drive from Lawrence to KCI.

Thanks!
Bill (not the smart Bill in Lawrence)

By the way...my thermometer reads 15 outside.

I just noticed something on my temperature gauge - It has gotten a couple degrees warmer - has anyone else seen this as well?

21 in harrisonville

 
twistedsisters 19 here in raymore.

TwistedSisters - In SE Lee's Summit, I have 17.9 degrees.

18 here in independence

Not so near to you, but here on 63rd st, near Shawnee Mission Parkway, we've been hovering around 19f for quite a while, in fact, it may even have raised 1f...

H.

We have 15.5 at our house in Blue Springs.

twistedsister-I live in Kingsville and my high was 24.5 and sitting at 18.5 currently.

*Sigh*  Looks like I'll get the daughter to school tomorrow for finals and then about the time I have to leave home to go get her at 11:00, we'll be having some lovely weather...  don't think the snow tires will do much good with frozen precipitation.  Wishing it was August- for once.  Dea

:)

I am at 21.0 now.  I guess it's fine.  If it is off, it's only off by a degree or 2. Normally it would not matter but as tomorrow approaches every degree counts.  Thanks everyone.  

14 degrees here in leavenworth it has gone down 1 degree in the last hour.

new blog posted!!