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Freezing Rain Advisory....December 18, 2008

If you are having problems getting on NBCActionNews.com, try going to www.kshb.com as that is working fine!

Good morning NBC Action Weather bloggers,

We debuted our new weather page last night and our brand new interactive radar and weather tools.  Play around with it and let us know what you think.

An Ice Storm Warning has been issued by the National Weather Service for the counties north of Kansas City.  A Freezing Rain Advisory is in effect for the rest of the viewing area.  Snow grains, freezing drizzle or mist may form at any time.  Dense fog has developed but it is still dry as of 6 AM.  A storm system is approaching the region.  A warm front is forming over Oklahoma this morning and this will be lifting north during the day.  As the upper level storm races our way it will help create a surface low on the warm front.  Where this surface low tracks is of extreme importance to our weather today.  North of the track temperatures will likely stay below 32 degrees and heavier precipitation will form.  Along and south of the track temperatures will likely rise to near 32 degrees and above preventing a major ice storm from developing.  Here is the forecast map for 8 PM this evening:

As expected it is dry for the morning rush hour, so far.  Some fog is developing but not even a mist is falling yet.  As this surface storm strengthens today freezing drizzle will be the first thing to look for and it won't be picked up by radar very well since the supercooled water droplets are so tiny.  We are expecting the freezing mist or freezing drizzle to develop later this morning or early this afternoon.  Freezing rain probably won't form until sometime this afternoon.  As soon as we see any evidence of the freezing rain developing we will update the blog.  1/4 inch ice accumulations are likely across northern Missouri.  Will it be a major ice storm for those of you closer to the Iowa border?  We just have to wait and see how this materializes.

This storm already produced some very unusual weather.  My brother Scott Lezak lives in a small community in the high desert north of Los Angeles.  He is at around the 1,500 to 2,000 foot level in a community called Lake Los Angeles.  Snow started falling yesterday morning and school let out early for my Niece and Nephew, Ashley and Christopher.  They ended up with 10 inches of snow by early this morning.  Las Vegas, NV also had a snowstorm last night.  Here is a picture of my brother taken yesterday afternoon in the extremely rare snowstorm:

Have a great morning!  Try to give yourself some extra time to get around today just so you aren't in a hurry.  There are slick spots left over from earlier in the week, but so far it isn't bad at all as we move through the morning rush hour.  Jeremy Nelson will keep you updated on NBC Action News through noon today!

Gary

Published Thursday, December 18, 2008 4:36 AM by glezak

Comments

 

JennIrat said:

Good morning Gary,

So I live in Easton, MO (east of St Joseph) and woke up to find that we are now in the ice storm warning.  I work in Gladstone, today from 10-6.  I am thinking of calling in.  I do not want to be stuck down there this evening.  How bad do you think it's going to be in this area today?

Jennifer

----------------

Jennifer,

It is a very tough forecast to make that call.  I still have a lot of questions on whether or not you will have major travel problems.  There likely won't be any sleet which will help the roads a lot.  How will it be at 6 PM?  I am guessing a few slick spots.  Will it be an ice scating rink out there?  I doubt it, but the farther north the better the chance it will get icy.

Gary

December 18, 2008 5:08 AM
 

Gant said:

Woke up to dense fog here in Wellsville (Franklin County, KS).  Interesting that the pavement is still completely dry so far.

------------

I woke up at 4 AM and looked outside and saw the fog.  I jumped up and took Breezy and Stormy for a walk and not even a mist is falling. 

Gary

December 18, 2008 5:19 AM
 

EMPulse said:

Gary,

My company is scheduled to have an orientation for new employees tonight from 5 - 8 P.M., and we're concerned about them trying to get there and get home if the weather's too bad.  We're in midtown KC and we can postpone it if we absolutely have to, but what would you advise?

Also, while I like the addition of the interactive map on the new weather page, I personally would prefer to have the station maps (forecast, conditions, etc.) closer to the top of the page since that's what I look for first.  But that's just my $0.02.

Thanks!

----------------

I will have Bill Smith, our web expert, look at the comments today.  I have always wanted that on top, but our corporate at Scripps Howard Broadcasting wanted it done this way.  So, it will be good exercize to pan down and then click away.

Gary

December 18, 2008 5:27 AM
 

deltagbear said:

With most of this turning to rain it will be sad to see the snow melt away!

--------------

It will be interesting to see what happens. Remember, temperatures are still well below freezing and the rain that falls later today may make an interesting casing around the snow.  We will likely have snow on the ground at least a little bit through Christmas Day!

Gary

December 18, 2008 5:29 AM
 

DPannell said:

Good Morning Gary,
Love the picture from your brother, the dogs seem to be loving the snow, look at their great coats!  I took Windy out for a quick walk at 4:30ish this morning, not too bad out, dry and no wind, just a bit hazy/foggy.  It's warmer now than it's been all week! I hope the precipitation stays away unless we can get some warm rain to melt all this icky snow.  The approaching arctic front has me fretting about all the dogs outside, please keep reminding people to take extra care with their pets during cold weather blasts.  
have a great day!
deb and windy back to hibernating........

----------------

Deb,

Breezy and Stormy say hi to Windy!  Did you see the picture of my Windy someone posted in yesterdays blog?  It brought back so many nice memories!

Gary

December 18, 2008 5:32 AM
 

billinlawrence said:

Gary:
Good chilly grey morning to you sir!! Currently sitting at around 19 degrees here in SW Lawrence this morning. Our temperatures stayed steady last night but it is for sure a chilly grey morning this morning.
First off, the igloo exercise was a success!!! We actually got a pretty good one yesterday as well as a snow fort!! I do not have a camera at the new house yet so I can’t take any pictures but it was just awesome!! Playing in the snow with the kids: priceless!! There in lies why I love snow and winter so much!!

Ok, again, just a few random observations this morning-I hope they make some sense but as I always say, these are the ramblings of a hobbyist who is trying to learn more and more!!

1. On the 10Z surface charts this morning, I think the main area of surface high pressure is currently in Western Indiana-it drifted more east than south so we are still in an easterly flow more so than a true southern flow. This will for sure change as the morning progresses, but I am kind of surprised we are still in a more easterly flow than a southern one at this time.

2. It is currently 30 degrees around Winfield, Kansas but I think the true warm air boundary is still in Western Kansas  back into central Oklahoma-that is where the flow really turns to the South/South West instead of more from the East. Will be interesting to follow both this wind shift line as well as the position of that surface high pressure.

3. The other thing I think I see is that in the Dakota’s at this time there is a weak area of surface low pressure trailing a weak cold front-Winds in Western North Dakota and South Dakota are from the NW this morning. This probably not a player at all but just something interesting. The 9Z RUC has this but it disappears by 18Z today.

4. I think the Water Vapor imager this morning is also interesting to see-man you can just see that moisture streaming in from the Pacific but also, I think the main core of the Low is still sitting around the California/Baja border and maybe even still off shore somewhat. That low in Washington is also crashing in hard.

5.The 9Z RUC sounding show that we have quite a bit of dry air between 700-850 level and we really don’t saturate until about 21Z today if not maybe an hour or so before. At that time, according to the RUC Topeka is just below freezing. I think the RUC will be a great model to follow today as it runs every 3 hours and one can really get some good sounding data from it.

6.  The current Nexrad radar shows some lite precipitation in central Oklahoma-my uneducated guess is that this has formed from the warmer air boundary. It does show that there is moisture moving up the southern Plains this morning.

These are just a few observations this morning-what they all mean to be honest I’m not sure. I think in some ways, they show that there are a lot of players out there this morning and then next 8-10 hours are going to be interesting to follow for sure and see how this all plays out. I think it interesting that the true warm air line did not move much yesterday but I think it will move quickly this morning.  I sure do not envy the weather team today at all-man what a mess!! That being said, I know without a doubt there is only one team that will be ahead of the curve and have the true bead on this storm!!! But, they do not pay you guys enough!!!

Finally, I said this yesterday and I will say it again: This is a great storm to learn from regarding winter weather in Kansas City and I am trying to do so but man, I just want to get this thing over with. This is a no win situation-we either have a small yet decent ice situation or we have rain-either one is yukola to the max and this wonderful winter landscape is going by by-I swear when that vort passes over my head I am going to give it a few choice words-it just had to have some Kansas City Barbecue. I still imagine what could have been had this thing when it hits the Oklahoma Panhandle kept trucking East instead of North East. This is going to put down some serious snow. If only it could have strengthened and tracked into Oklahoma. Oh well-such is weather but I still wonder what could have been. Like I said, it is kind of like losing an 8 pound bass-there are others, but they are few and far between in this part of the country-when you get a storm as a snow lover you sure hate to miss it!!!!

Well, have a great day and good luck today-I know it is going to be a hectic one for all of you but I know for sure who I am going to follow and base my decision on whether to cancel our formal tonight!!

Bill in Lawrence

--------------

Bill,

Thanks, as usual, for your observations.  And, congratulations on getting the snow fort built.  The most amazing thing to me so far is that dense fog is developing without even a mist. This is good news as once a freezing mist forms it can get slick fast.  And, there is still a chance that light snow of snow grains form in the boundary layer instead of freezing drizzle at first.  It is so cold I am wondering if this may happen.

Gary

December 18, 2008 5:44 AM
 

DPannell said:

Yes Gary I saw the picture of Windy.  I commented but it probably got lost in the myriad of comments.  I loved that picture!  She will truly always be Windy the WonderWeather Dog!  I wonder how many kids (now grown) have fond memories and you and Windy visiting their schools, truly a shared memory for many growing up in KC Metro.  I hope Stormy and Breezy are enjoying the snow.  My Windy is so funny in the snow, she dives for her tennis ball then seems so puzzled by it being covered in ice when she come up with it and and a nose full of snow!  We havent' missed a day of going to the ball fields to chase the tennis ball, there have been some bitter cold afternoons but she's getting her run in, without it  she'd be tormenting the little dogs (popeye and hoss).  Enjoy your snow, I know you love it :).

----------------

Yes, but I would love to have some more.  I will also get excited if I see a warm up.

Gary

December 18, 2008 5:58 AM
 

deltagbear said:

booo... no warm up!  I really love the col weather1
December 18, 2008 6:09 AM
 

MikeTrainor1 said:

just a quick comment on dogs and snow... our (basset) hounds are quite fond of daddy socks. tucker ran outside with one last week, then unearthed it from the snow the other day and VOILA! Socksickle!! wish i'd gotten of photo it!

mike

December 18, 2008 6:10 AM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

It will be interesting to see how much energy this storm looses after leaving L.A. My folks live in Agua Dulce (North Los Angeles county, between Palmdale and Santa Clarita, Gary) said that it was one of the worse storms that they have seen. They mentioned lots of wind. Did your brother in Lake L.A. have wind? My folks were watching things blow across their yard. They also said that with the wind that the snow pellets and rain pellets really stung when they hit their faces (we all know that feeling!). Anyway, I like to compare how a storm is in the greater Los Angeles area versus how it is once it gets here.
December 18, 2008 6:31 AM
 

bulldog said:

When I opened the weather page this morning it took a long time to load, much longer than usual.  Not complaining, just noting because I knew that the something new you had been talking about was added.  I haven't tried to use it yet.  I will try now.  Thanks Audrey

------------

Audrey,

Thanks! We will be working on the speed!

Gary

December 18, 2008 6:32 AM
 

ksokie said:

Good morning; I'm looking at the weather page and wonder why the difference in the high temperatures for today.  The forecast at the top of the page shows a high of 38 vs. the today forecast at the bottom shows a high of 32.  According to what you posted in the blog, I think you are currently forecasting the 32 - correct?  I am in Kansas City North and trying to figure out whether to drive to work in Lee's Summit or work from home today.

-----------------

We can't control that aspect of the forecast. I think you will all know that our forecast is off to the right.  This other forecast is computer generated and maybe we can put a disclaimer on there or something to make sure we know that it is not ours.

Gary

December 18, 2008 6:45 AM
 

Jingles1963 said:

Hi Gary,

I like the new interactive weather map!

Thanks!

Teresa
December 18, 2008 6:48 AM
 

billinlawrence said:

Gary:

Thanks so much for the response this morning-it so appreciated!!

Last quick observation this morning as I have to get to grading finals:

Looking at the 12Z surface charts I think one can see that the surface low has now formed over Goodland Kansas-kind of in the spot where the warmer air line really converges with the easterly flow still in place. There was another surface low back just east of Vegas but it has really weakend since 11Z. I think our surface low has now formed and the 12Z runs of the models should have a good handle since it is there at 12z. Again, as always, I think this is right??? LOL (I have to admit I read a discussion from the NWS and began looking for this!!!) If this is the main surface low, it will be interesting to track and see which way it tracks but I would think (again, think!!!!) with it forming over Goodland the chances of it heading much south are pretty slim. I would guess we will really begin to get the waa here in the next 3-4 hours.  

Again, these are just the musings of a hobbyist Latin/History teacher-take with a massive grain of salt.

Well, off to grade finals-can't wait until we can begin to focus on Saturday and early next week....

Bill singing the ode to the melted igloo and fort in Lawrence
December 18, 2008 6:55 AM
 

Chris1905 said:

Gary,
I noticed looking at other websites you are the only one calling for snow on Sunday.
Is this part of the LRC or is it showing up on the GFS & NAM?
December 18, 2008 6:56 AM
 

Weatherornot said:

Bulldog,

It may be that your browser simply needed to cache the site which in turn should make it faster to load the next time around.   Gary, it would be great to have some kind of quick link on the blog that would take you to the weather page.
December 18, 2008 6:57 AM
 

Brent said:

what happened to the winter forecast?

"I ce storms are possible but to the south"...
looks like the north got this one......

*********************

Seems to me like everyone is going to see some freezing rain today, but not an ice storm for all.  I would say the winter forecast has been right on the money so far.  Below average temperatures.  Snowfall around or above average, and the active part of the schedule right on cue.  Can't ask for much more than this Brent.  But the worst of this storm does look to be north.

Jeremy

December 18, 2008 6:57 AM
 

W0XDL said:

Hey...I really like the interactive map on the new KSHB weather page.  I'm afraid we are going to get the kids to school and then, depending on timing, release early or cancel all after school activities.

Gary, do you think tomorrow morning the roads will be OK or could today's precipitation create some challenges for the morning commute?

DL
December 18, 2008 6:58 AM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

I, along with everyone else I think, am looking forward to watching the day unfold. How it unfolds, who the heck knows. I have never heard the term "nowcast" until I got to KC and started reading the team's forecasts and the blog. I think this storm will most definatly be a nowcast event.

So Gary, If your family is in SoCal, how did you end up here? Did you go to school here, fell in love with the area and stayed? That is what happened to my Aunt in Richmond, VA. She went to college there and never left.

What are the odds that the forecast will change today for us in Lee's Summit? And if they do change will it change more towards the ice side or the rain side?
December 18, 2008 7:09 AM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

By the way, I like the interactive part of the map. The radar map was the only reason I went to the weather channel via the web. I really liked the interaction part and being able to zoom out and in as I wished. Looks like I don't need to go there anymore! I really like being able to zoom out to see what is heading our way in the next few hours and then being able to zoom in and see exactly what is happening in my neighborhood. Thanks

-----------------------

Excellent!  This is one of our goals.  There is no reason to go to that website again!

Gary

December 18, 2008 7:16 AM
 

Emmysmom said:

So I just got up and my brain isn't totally working, so I'm just looking to clarify : )

We live up north near Liberty and both work downtown.  

(1) I get off work at 5:00 and have to go pick up my daughter at daycare before heading home.  Based on what you know at the moment and what your expertise tells you, how bad do you think it will be driving at that time?  Should I leave much earlier to avoid some of the ice and slick spots, or is it actually better to leave at the regular time?

(2) Also, my husband works at 12:30, but takes our daughter to daycare first, usually leaving around 11:45. Is he smarter to try to leave earlier and just hang out at work a little before, or will it make a difference as far as his drive?

(3) Lastly, he doesn't get off of work until 9:30. Do you expect his drive home to be very dangerous or treacherous?

I know what I'm asking for is a more personal forecast, but this whole things is kind of freaking me out.  Could you possibly just give me quick answers, if you have a moment...? :)

***********************

Can't tell you when to travel/commute or not.  But the best chance of freezing rain is from midday through the afternoon.  By 9 p.m. hopefully it is above freezing and roads would be okay around KC.  There will be slippery areas when the frz. rain begins, so just drive careful.

Jeremy

December 18, 2008 7:17 AM
 

RDub said:

"I know what I'm asking for is a more personal forecast, but this whole things is kind of freaking me out."

Hi Emmys. I'd say overall this is not a storm worth freaking out over. It's just not going to be that big a deal.

9:30 pm will probably be the best time for driving as it should be above 32 by then. Near noon would probably be the worst, because it will be coldest, but when will the real ice actually start? If it's 11:30 and still dry, I'd say get moving to avoid the ice.

5:00, well, that's always bad, even if it's only rain.
December 18, 2008 7:22 AM
 

bulldog said:

Got the map going, very cool.  It will be realy fun this spring!  Does it update on it's own or should we use our refresh button?
December 18, 2008 7:23 AM
 

Emmysmom said:

Thanks Jeremy, and RDub : )   I'm just a paranoid driver in any winter weather.

Just wondering...if they do pretreat the roads, and we dont get any real heavy rain (I know that's a big if), will it be able to help the roads stay "clean" or is it not something that the treatment can do a big deal with?
December 18, 2008 7:33 AM
 

Holmes524 said:

Thanks for the new weather tools.  I love the map.  Like weatherfreak, I went to the other website to look at the map.  
December 18, 2008 7:51 AM
 

kvluvalcsens said:

It's already misting here in Lees Summit a thin coat on my windsheild.
December 18, 2008 7:51 AM
 

twistedsisters said:

22.6 degrees here this morning.  
December 18, 2008 7:53 AM
 

twinkiekid said:

At 6:30 this morning there was a fine mist coming down in Lees Summit.  I was out of the car maybe ten minutes and the windshield was wet.  Nothing was freezing at the moment.
December 18, 2008 8:02 AM
 

bewild79 said:

I am sure people hate answering these kinds of questions but I need to ask it anyway and hope that someone answers....
I DO NOT know how to drive in this stuff and am currently sitting at work.  It took alot of convincing myself to even come in.  I dont want to be out when the freezing drizzle start (or the rain) .... should I just go home now?
thanks
becky
December 18, 2008 8:10 AM
 

mamaof3girls said:

Last night I aked the question about "can fog form during condition's like we are having now?"....well after reading your blog this am I guess it can, :o). My trampoline net looks like a big sheet of frost. Wonder if we should of taken the nets down....sure hope it does not ruin it. Today should be exciting to see how it all unfolds. The nowcasting will begin soon. Rest up boys....might be a busy and stressful day for you all!!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS
December 18, 2008 8:11 AM
 

f00dl3 said:

Anyone notice how the latest NAM is pulling cold air in on the backside of the storm?
December 18, 2008 8:15 AM
 

stjoeattorney said:

odd up here todfay 19 at the airport but in the city my house and car and the guy on local radio all had 16 or15 degrees. . . a tiny bit of hoar frost as well.
December 18, 2008 8:16 AM
 

mamaof3girls said:

What is "hoar" frost?? And is snow grains the same as grauple (spell?)?
December 18, 2008 8:23 AM
 

JennIrat said:

Bewild...I am facing the same decision, but I haven't left for work yet.  I live up in St Joseph but work in Gladstone...I have to leave around 9 and I do not get off work until 6.  I am thinking of going in and leaving around 3.  Hopefully that won't be too late.....

Jennifer
December 18, 2008 8:23 AM
 

Weatherornot said:

Becky,


Honestly even when the freezing drizzle starts later this morning the roads should still be okay because of the treatment that is still there from the snow storm.   What we have to worry about is when the rain is more moderate while the temps are below freezing.  The moderate rain would wash away the treatment possibly causing some icy conditions.   That and you need to be careful on sidewalks and untreated area like parking lots and less traveled streets.    What will really be a pain is the ice coat on the cars.  
December 18, 2008 8:24 AM
 

bewild79 said:

JennIrat You are more gutsy than I am...I was thinking of leaving like in the next hour or something.  I am scared to death to drive in this stuff and I want to go before it starts.
December 18, 2008 8:27 AM
 

VdoManZ said:

the freezing mist this morning looked really cool on the evergreen trees in the neighborhood! I wish I had my camera with me on my way to work.
December 18, 2008 8:27 AM
 

W0XDL said:

Hoar frost is just a winter frost...I think.  I sang a choral setting of some poem with that term and we looked it up.
December 18, 2008 8:30 AM
 

RickyTim said:

Wow! Down here in Ottawa I just noticed an icy coating on the tree branches around here, you know, that "fairy land effect" that looks so pretty. Nothing like that only an hour ago. I was going to say that I see no mist/fog, but as I write, a mist is forming in my neighborhhod. I just refilled my birdfeeder (very popular place these days) and my deck is not yet coated or slick. Man, it is wild to actually watch the fog forming before my eyes! When this gets heavy enough to glaze the surfaces, look out! Jeremy, will the freezing precipitation hit down here earlier than up in KC?
Thanks for all your work, you guys!
December 18, 2008 8:32 AM
 

beckysma said:

bewild79, I'm at work to, and I'm thinking I will leave at noon.  I'll keep following along here all morning to help decide.
December 18, 2008 8:34 AM
 

weatherwunder said:

When looking at the radar weather map be sure to notice that the time is for Eastern Standard Time.  I missed that feature when I looked at it the first time.  This is a great map because you can refresh it and keep current on the progress of the weather system!  
Thank you so much!
Edna
December 18, 2008 8:37 AM
 

bewild79 said:

my other question being....since the ice storm warning moved more south, is there any chance of it moving one more county to the south? I am in platte county and that woud just really stink
becky
December 18, 2008 8:39 AM
 

bewild79 said:

beckysma,
you and me both.  I might just leave before that and make a quick stop for a Christmas present before I go hide at home. lol
becky
December 18, 2008 8:40 AM
 

weatherwunder said:

Bloggers, I forgot to make a request in my previous blog.  When you make a weather observation for your own area, it would be helpful for you to mention where you are located.  Thanks!  Edna
December 18, 2008 8:40 AM
 

mamaof3girls said:

RickyTim....I have the same little glaze on my tree's too. I woke up to find it. Wonder if that is the freezing fog effect...I have no idea. Fog had already formed down here when I went to bed around 12:30 last night. W0XDL..."hoar frost" another term for winter frost?? Thanks....that is a weird name don't ya think? :o)
December 18, 2008 8:43 AM
 

f00dl3 said:

The ( http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/ weather ) website is slow. Anyone else know anyplace to get official surface obs plotted on a map?
December 18, 2008 8:46 AM
 

weatherwunder said:

bewild79, I just checked the map for Leavenworth County for the same reason.  The line has "progressed" in a negative way for both Leavenworth and Platte Counties.  Let's pray that this situation just dissipates for everyone.  Ice is the wintry condition that bothers me the most because of power lines and trees.  Being retired, I'm thankful not to have to deal with the driving anymore.  However, I do feel for the rest of you.  Edna
December 18, 2008 8:48 AM
 

MelissaLG said:

From a Google Search:

Hoar frost:  "Frozen dew that forms a white coating on a surface. Also called white frost."

Hmmm ... I thought all frost did that?  What's the difference between hoar frost and just plain ol' frost?

I agree, funny name - kinda sounds like you're insulting the frost!
December 18, 2008 8:52 AM
 

RickyTim said:

Hi back, "mamaof3girls!" (I am "papaof3boys," all grown up now and flown from the nest),

OK, everyone, Webster's Dictionary defines "hoarfrost" simply as "frost." "Hoary" is defined as an adjective meaning "gray or white with or as with age." Therefore, "Hoarfrost" would mean a heavy white frost, right? Help us, Jeremy! We are the blind leading the blind...
December 18, 2008 8:53 AM
 

Emmysmom said:

Okay, so I just heard Gary on 980 and THOUGHT I heard him say that the real precip wouldn't happen until around 3:00.  Was I dreaming?  If not, does this mean if I leave by about 2:30, should I be okay, or is 3:00 just when the hardest stuff will hit?
December 18, 2008 8:53 AM
 

bewild79 said:

weatherwunder,
yea that is why I just make sure I am home when these things happen.  Last year we were in a townhouse that had underground power lines.  Now we are in a house that does not and do not have a generator.  There are 4 kids in my house and the 2 youngest are 5 and 1 and I worry about that.
becky
December 18, 2008 8:55 AM
 

bewild79 said:

I am very much thinking of leaving by 10 at the latest.....I dont like this kind of winter weather =(
becky
December 18, 2008 8:58 AM
 

weatherwyco said:

Good Morning Everyone!

22 here in western KCK, up from our low temp of 16.5 around 1 in this morning. Looks like we need to tack on another 10-11 degrees for the freezing rain to stay out of the picture, and with precip well down into southern Kansas, Oklahoma area and the storm system not yet on the move, I think the warm front may just clear the area today, but who knows! If you want just click on my name and you can see area temps around the region courtesy of wunderground.

Bryan
December 18, 2008 8:59 AM
 

f00dl3 said:

Kansas City International Airport 08:53 Fog/Mist 22 19 89 E 3 30.20
Charles B Wheeler Downtown Airport 08:54 Fog/Mist 24 20 84 E 6 30.21
Lees Summit 08:53 Fog/Mist 22 20 92 E 3 30.19
December 18, 2008 9:06 AM
 

Mammatus said:

F00dl3   www.unisys.com
December 18, 2008 9:07 AM
 

Mammatus said:

Sorry, the weather maps are at
http://weather.unisys.com/index.html
December 18, 2008 9:10 AM
 

KC_Hams said:

26.2 in North Kansas City and all is still clear.
December 18, 2008 9:10 AM
 

f00dl3 said:

Thanks Mammatus :-)
December 18, 2008 9:14 AM
 

JHAWK23 said:

Does anyone know about what time this morning they extended the "Ice Strom Warning" a row of counties further south??
December 18, 2008 9:16 AM
 

bewild79 said:

getting a mist at 152 and rt 1
becky (at work wanting to leave =( )
December 18, 2008 9:16 AM
 

bewild79 said:

is there a chance that we could be added to the ice storm warning?
becky

********************

very doubtful

Jeremy

December 18, 2008 9:18 AM
 

jacob said:

Lots of fog here in Lee's Summit...and some very light mist.

Lee's Summit schools have a 1/2 day today and our Christmas break starts.  High schools get out at 10:30am so we should all be hope before our light freezing drizzle event begins.
December 18, 2008 9:21 AM
 

jacob said:

I really enjoy the new website...
December 18, 2008 9:21 AM
 

Braysmama said:

Temps continue to climb. Morning low 17.1 now 25.0 in Kingsville. Trees look pretty covered in all white.....
December 18, 2008 9:24 AM
 

weatherwunder said:

bewild79, where I used to work one of my co-workers labeled me as  super-cautious.  So, if I were in your situation and had a choice and since we are in an "ice" situation, I would leave for home today (then make it up with using a little more risk in a "snow" situation).  Another consideration would be if it wouldn't jeopardize your job.  Just my thoughts.  Edna
December 18, 2008 9:26 AM
 

JHAWK23 said:

Becky.....thats why I was wondering when they extended the warning to the south a little bit........this is from 4 am NWS area discussion....



GIVEN THE COLDER SCENARIO...PLAN TO EXTEND MANY ADVISORIES AND DROP
THE ICE STORM WARNING ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTH. DAY SHIFT MAY
NEED TO MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ONCE THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS BECOME
MORE CLEAR.

AS FAR AS TIMING AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION....LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND PROFILER NETWORKS SUGGEST THAT SHALLOW ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS DEVELOPING IN XTRM SERN KS AND SWRN MO. SGF RADAR HINTS AT
THE BEGINNING STAGES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEEPEN AND INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH STRONG H8 THETAE ADVECTION BY MID TO LATE
AFTN. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN GRIDS
THIS MORNING WITH FREEZING LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO SPREAD NORTH
THIS AFTN. GIVEN THE FORCING...NAM QPF LOOKS A LITTLE UNDERDONE WITH
A COMPROMISE FAVORED BTWN THE GFS AND NAM.
December 18, 2008 9:27 AM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

I still don't think it will go above freezing, doing the below freezing dance!!
December 18, 2008 9:29 AM
 

Emmysmom said:

So, Jeremy, was I totally hearing what I wanted to hear when I thought I heard Gary say (on 980 around 8:40) that the precip would fall between 3-6?

*********************

I think he was referring to the steadier stuff.  Could be some drizzle/mist around sooner.

Jeremy

December 18, 2008 9:30 AM
 

bewild79 said:

weatherwunder,
I work in a counseling office so I think they are pretty understanding when it comes to my safty and dont get upset.  Also, I will have my 5 year old in the car and i dont want anything to happen to him.  I would rather have myself get hurt than him.
becky
December 18, 2008 9:31 AM
 

bewild79 said:

jhawk23,
yea I am getting nervous...... =(
December 18, 2008 9:33 AM
 

LibertyB said:

Is there any chance the Ice Storm Warning will drop into Clay County? I doubt we will make it near 32 with all the snow on the ground here.

******************

With the amount of ice accumulation expected the freezing rain advisory handles this setup very well.

Jeremy

December 18, 2008 9:33 AM
 

TeacherInStJoe said:

I haven't stepped outside since I have students testing, but radio was reporting a freezing mist. We had some fog also move in.  The temperature is holding at 19. I don't know what is going to happen today, but I'll be keeping an eye on the weather all day.
December 18, 2008 9:34 AM
 

kctruth said:

Hoarfrost is just a heavy, thick frost that might look a little fuzzy or spiky when viewed close up.  It is actually quite pretty.
December 18, 2008 9:35 AM
 

pmccabe58 said:

So they still arent certain that it will get above freezing today??
December 18, 2008 9:39 AM
 

Holmes524 said:

Bewild you will be ok.  If you are so scared, its better you go on home.  Be safe on your trek home.  
December 18, 2008 9:43 AM
 

RDub said:

Looking at the radar, the precip is just not that impressive, and still pretty far away. Haven't seen any mist or drizzle in northern Johnson County with temps (slowly) rising.

********************

I'm with you.  Temps are going to be near 30-32 by this afternoon and the precipitation will be arriving or light.  This is nothing like the storm that came through last December.  Some people have asked me about 0.5" or a 0.25" in the metro.  Not sure where they heard that but that information is wrong and really misleading as to what this storm will produce.  Any ice accumulation in the metro will likely be under 0.10".  With temps around 32 it will be tough to get this to stick on main roads.  I would watch out on the bridge decks, on/off ramps, elevated areas, and north facing surfaces.

Jeremy

December 18, 2008 9:44 AM
 

beckysma said:

Weather team, please give us frequent blog updates today, as often as you can.

So many of us are trying to make decisions!

Thanks!!

*******************

If anything changes we will.  Still looks like it arrives to the south first, then freezing drizzle and rain arrives in the metro by midday or early afternoon.  I think Gary said 3-6pm there should be a steadier area of precipitation.

Jeremy

December 18, 2008 9:44 AM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

December 18, 2008 9:47 AM
 

billinlawrence said:

Gary, Jeremy, Jeff, Brett:

Could you guys please delete my last entry at 9:20 A.M.-I think the second to last paragraph where I stated I was going out on a limb should not be posted-I do not feel that I am any position to state something like that on a public blog when we are talking about a storm such as this one!!!

Thanks so much and sorry for that-I really need to think/read before I post!!!

Bill in Lawrence
December 18, 2008 9:47 AM
 

Braysmama said:

27.4 and climbing in Kingsville. Maybe it won't be as bad!
December 18, 2008 9:48 AM
 

qtney1 said:

A very very fine, very light snow falling in Olathe
December 18, 2008 9:50 AM
 

GB Summit said:

I come on here just for the wonderful weather updates. But good lord some folks on here need to settle down.
December 18, 2008 9:52 AM
 

billinlawrence said:

Thank You Jeremy!!! Again, sorry about that!!

Bill in Lawrence
December 18, 2008 9:56 AM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

Come on temps! Stay down, down, down!!
December 18, 2008 9:58 AM
 

oldpat said:

New to this blog although I have been reading for a couple of years.  I do not understand much of the technical information, but enjoy nonetheless.  I think I am learning some though!!!!  
I would like to see us miss the ice.  In fact, I could fast forward to May.
December 18, 2008 10:12 AM
 

Braysmama said:

29.3 in Kingsville. Warm front must be heading north. Wait-it just went up to 29.9.....
December 18, 2008 10:23 AM
 

PilotS77 said:

Andrew - I am confused why you wish for the worst scenario to take place. This at a minimum seems unkind towards those that are really concerned about ice.

Now for info more related to the blog's purpose. In Stilwell we are right now at 31.5 degrees. The temperature has been creeping up steadily. That is a good indicator and goes along with what Gary and Jeremy predicted.

John
December 18, 2008 10:23 AM
 

RDub said:

Hey Andrew, is this your personal weather station...

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KKSOLATH16

Looks like you are already pretty warm!
December 18, 2008 10:24 AM
 

KC_Hams said:

@bewild79 - I was just up around 152 & 1 Hwy and all is well there. I drove thru 5 seconds of sprinkles. Nothing hazardous.
December 18, 2008 10:24 AM
 

Weatherornot said:

Andrew,

Why would you want it to ice up?  I am all for the temps to stay down if it depended on it snowing but with the ice and the havoc it would cause I would hope that people would want the temps to go up up up!
December 18, 2008 10:27 AM
 

bulldog said:

Bouncing between 26 & 27.8 here. Wierd.  I am praying it keeps going up as well, all my loved ones have to come home through small country roads that don't get much attention from their counties and they were still very slippery this morning.  Just want everyone to get home safe tonight.
December 18, 2008 10:35 AM
 

PilotS77 said:

It is 32.4 in Stilwell with the temperature increase more rapid now.
December 18, 2008 10:35 AM
 

GB Summit said:

Its the same selfish metality as hoping for tornados
December 18, 2008 10:37 AM
 

Weatherfly said:

28.5 now here in S OP....
December 18, 2008 10:38 AM
 

dougbce said:

Currently the KDOT road map is showing ice/snow etc. on the roads from just southwest of Emporia clear down through Wichita and into Oklahoma.  It would appear they are showing wet/slushy roads from the Emporia are to the southeast through Burlington.  Doesn't look like the main freezing stuff is northeast of Emporia yet (towards KC).

http://511.ksdot.org/KanRoadPublic_VE/Default.aspx
December 18, 2008 10:39 AM
 

okstatefan said:

Love the picture of your borther and his dogs - I'm sure they are loving the snow!! My husky mix sure is she can't get enough of it.  
December 18, 2008 10:45 AM
 

pvt_murphy said:

temps are warming up nicely, a non event upon us.  although i think that the rain will move in quicker than 1500.  its already knocking on emporia's door, and it appears to be moving with a purpose...

not very impressive rain shield...

********************

It doesn't take but a few minutes of freezing rain to cause problems.  But with temps nearing 30+ by the time it starts this hopefully won't be a headache. 

Jeremy

December 18, 2008 10:46 AM
 

PilotS77 said:

Current temperature: 34.5 - a very steady temperature increase; even with a measurement error we are above freezing in Stilwell KS.
December 18, 2008 10:48 AM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

I hope my wx station is wrong! I love Winter, I hate melting, Rain is for summer/spring Snow,Sleet,and Ice is for winter
December 18, 2008 10:50 AM
 

krisz said:

I like the new look, especially for today with the freezing rain, when, how long, etc.  I think you look better without hair Gary!!  These forecasts and updates have been so helpful, especially with all of the holiday travel plans.  Thanks a bunch!
December 18, 2008 10:50 AM
 

krisz said:

Loved the pic from your brother and his dogs.  I used to have a Husky mix and an Australian Shepherd.  They loved the snow, too.  I love my dogs, but not enough to get up at 4 a.m. to let them out unless it was an emergency!
December 18, 2008 10:53 AM
 

RDub said:

Andrew, your station probably is over-measuring temperature a little.

I also noticed that it was showing a 40+ mph wind from the NW today...whats up with that????
December 18, 2008 10:56 AM
 

PilotS77 said:

Andrew - you are either immature or looking for a rise out of people. This is not the appropriate forum for neither immaturity or mind games. You may be removed from the blog of you continue to try to upset people which is what you seem to have an intent of doing. I will ignore your comments from now on unless you demonstrate that you add some value to the discussion.

The indications right now is the the team is once again right on target (was there ant doubt?) - the rise in temperatures is a good indicator and hopefully will continue through the rest of the day.

John
December 18, 2008 10:56 AM
 

KC_Hams said:

New blog posted.
December 18, 2008 11:00 AM
 

weatherjaded said:

Come on people, give Andrew a break.  He is an outstanding contributor to this blog and he is sharing his opinion on what weather event he prefers.  Which happens to be an opinion shared by many on this blog.  Does anyone ever want to see any situation that could cause damage to person or property? NO.  But, snow, ice, wind, tornado, thuderstorms, heat can all be dangerous situations, but no jumps on people that get excited for thunderstorms or a 90 degree day.  Its all apart of weather.  It's those situations that make the weather interesting.  This is a weather blog and should be free to express our opinions on the weather!
Matt
December 18, 2008 11:10 AM
 

PilotS77 said:

Matt I disagree - I have not seen a single contribution today by Andrew - he may have contributed in the past but now he is a distraction. And the free speech argument does not apply to intentional harm and discomfort which is what Andrew is doing.

John

********************

John and all bloggers,

The last time the weather got very exciting we had to shut down the blog comments we would rather not have to do this today since this is a place to learn and share ideas.  Let's just focus on our own comments and weather discussion and the weather team will address comments when needed.

Jeremy

December 18, 2008 11:15 AM
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