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Updated...Northern Missouri Ice Storm

Good evening everyone,

This is such a complex set up for ice accumulation.  There is likely going to be an ice storm across northern Missouri, north of a St. Joseph to Chillicothe line, including the towns of Maryville, Trenton and Bethany.  1/2" ice accumulation is likely if you live north of that line.  This is not quite enough ice to cause major power outages, so let's hope it ends before anything serious develops.

In the Kansas City area we will see freezing rain showers increase through 7 PM.  As this is happening temperatures will rise from the current 27 at KCI into the lower 30s.  Olathe which is 31 will rise to above freezing.  This means that the I-70 corridor will have some minor icing, but could still be a problem on bridges, overpasses, driveways and parking lots.  So, watch your step and take it slow.

We do have to watch for re-freezing 6-10 AM Friday as colder air returns and temperatures fall back into the 20s.  There will be quite a bit of standing water around as we may see .25" to .50" rain along with some melted snow.

This first map is valid around 1 AM.  Look at where I think the surface low is going to track.  This would pull in some warmer air, but how far north?

By 3 AM, the low will have moved into Missouri.  Colder air will be drawn south Friday morning leading to the potential freezing of some of the water early Friday. But, the precipitation will be over.

We will continue to update through the evening on the blog and watch at 5, 6 & 10 PM on NBC ActionNews HD as well.

Have you tried out our new IRadar?

Gary

Published Thursday, December 18, 2008 3:42 PM by glezak

Comments

 

FlakeFan said:

We had heavy frost on tree by around 9:00, still 28 degrees at Joco airport.

28 degrees? I thought it was suppost to be neer 40!
December 18, 2008 4:02 PM
 

FlakeFan said:

We had heavy frost on tree by around 9:00, still 28 degrees at Joco airport.

28 degrees? I thought it was suppost to be neer 40!
December 18, 2008 4:02 PM
 

KSCityKitty said:

So, looks like JoCo KS will get missed????  I sure hope so.
December 18, 2008 4:05 PM
 

woolgrower said:

Very light rain just started in Cameron (actually 1/2 between Cameron and Turney) and temps reads at 25 degrees.
December 18, 2008 4:06 PM
 

kb0rpj said:

25f and freezing drizzle in trenton.
December 18, 2008 4:08 PM
 

LSOutdoorGuy said:

Gary are we in the clear??   I push snow and have been out almost every night this week.  I'd like to get more than 4 hours of sleep tonite.  Thanks for your forcast genius.
December 18, 2008 4:10 PM
 

bewild79 said:

is the temp rise definately going to happen or is that just something that we are still hoping that it does?
December 18, 2008 4:12 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

Well it looks like most of the metro has come out unscathed by this storm. Im glad for everyone who has avoided the ice.

These WAA events are just so close to call. The models got this one right. They had been saying nothern missouri and Iowa all along, and that appears to be what is happening.

Maybe we will get the next storm.....
December 18, 2008 4:14 PM
 

ethalo said:

Gary and Jeremy,

POOF !

What happened to the solid area of precip that
was shown to the south (Garnett, Mound City) on
your 11 A.M. broadcast  ?
According to current radar, it looks as though it has broken
up big time....at least for Johnson County.
No freezing rain...and really no rain period.
Will it redevelope, or is this it for the day and night?

Nobody's fault, but burnt a vacation day because of
the freezing rain that was forecast by 1-3 P.M.
Such a waste.

At least you did not stick your necks out last night
by being specific when this was all supposed to start and
end, but EARLY this morning you both said that it would
be here in the afternoon.

I am sorry if I sound disgruntled, but I wonder
how many people stayed home from work today
because they were afraid of driving home on an ice rink.
December 18, 2008 4:17 PM
 

Tim in Waldo said:

Looks like not to much of anything happening out here so far. Hey Gary would you say the possibility of a White Christmas is better than 50 - 50?  I sure hope so even a light snow on Christmas eve with some nice snow showers on Christmas would be great!
December 18, 2008 4:24 PM
 

hippygoth said:

Quick road check for everyone...

Drove from 108th to 63rd and Pfflum... Took main roads, had more issues with the water coming up off the road than what was falling from the sky... Little bit of drizzle out there now, and grass tops are starting to peek out from the snow out back...

Anyway... Can we get an analysis of what actually happened with the storm, it kinda just sat south for a while, then split around KC...

H.
December 18, 2008 4:29 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

NOOO, I hear melting already!! I hope Something changes!!!!
December 18, 2008 4:37 PM
 

» Blog Archive » Rehearsal is ON! said:

December 18, 2008 4:37 PM
 

oldpat said:

Glad to be missing most of the ice-in fact there is nothing falling from the sky here in Kearney.  I am ready for a warm-up but that looks like it is several days away.

December 18, 2008 4:38 PM
 

Brent said:

wow this is pathetic...I'm leaving kansas city...off to arizona...lol
December 18, 2008 4:41 PM
 

NotesInTheMargin said:

It sure is cooling nicely already, even along the I-70 corridor.

It appears many stations already hit their high for the day, as quite a few reporting stations have already lost a couple of degrees in the last hour.  If the radar fills in a bit more along I-70, it could get messy.

-----------------

Notes,

The drop in temperature is more related to the temperature dropping to the dewpoint because of the rain falling.  This is going to be an interesting evening of warm front and temperature watching, not to mention the even more important radar.  The upper level storm track will be critical to where these features line up in the next 6 hours.

Gary

Gary

 

December 18, 2008 4:42 PM
 

whirlygirl said:

Would rethink taking a vacation day for this. Thought most wanted the temps to stay low so we would get the ice? Wasn't really forecasted as being a significant ice event for south of I-70 anyway as I recall. I had the day off anyways so didn't bother me.
December 18, 2008 4:43 PM
 

Tim in Waldo said:

Here is the analysis, From the Bugs Bunny network....  It was headed this way and then took a left at Albuquerque.
December 18, 2008 4:44 PM
 

PilotS77 said:

ethalo,

The team has done an awesome job and continues to do so. This specific event not only is very hard to figure out but also not over yet. Better to be safe at home and missed an event than be out on icy roads. Ultimately is your call however. And what is wrong with staying home from work during an icky weather day?
December 18, 2008 4:45 PM
 

pmccabe58 said:

whats current temps for everyone??
December 18, 2008 4:46 PM
 

bewild79 said:

sure feels colder out there....
December 18, 2008 4:47 PM
 

Tinpusher said:

I was looking forward to some rain showers this evening, even that possibility went POOF!  I just hope they get thru this ice storm with nothing too severe up north.  
December 18, 2008 4:48 PM
 

NotesInTheMargin said:

Gary,

I'm curious what leads you to believe that KCI will warm above freezing?

It seems that temps have dropped a bit with some evaporative cooling and at and north of KC, the surface flow does seem to have a slight northerly component - more ENE rather than ESE...and the air to the ENE is a bit on the chilly side...

It seems to me they could easily remain below freezing for quite some time...
December 18, 2008 4:48 PM
 

KellyHightower said:

I think it is above freezing in midtown/Brookside.  There is pooled water atop cast iron railings and it is just liquid, not slick or ice at all.
December 18, 2008 4:49 PM
 

pmccabe58 said:

Hey Gary is there still a chance for ice? Im going up to my parents house which is off of Green Hills Road and I was wondering if it will be just rain or what? Thanks alot
December 18, 2008 4:49 PM
 

KUFan4Life said:

30 degrees here and my front yard is getting "crunchy"...

Just a fine mist here in Lee's Summit...
December 18, 2008 4:50 PM
 

PilotS77 said:

It is raining in Stilwell with a temperature of 31.8
December 18, 2008 4:50 PM
 

Zazel said:

I stayed home from work today instead of driving downtown.  I didn't take a vacation day though, I called in sick.  /cough.  Personally I'm all for a good icing, I havne't seen one of those in years since I was in northern Michigan during the big one here.  I do find it interesting that no one really seems confident in stating we are definitely going to see only very minor icing problems.
December 18, 2008 4:50 PM
 

davidmcg said:

Hey Gary is this as warm as it is going to get?  We were up to 28.9 but now it has dropped to 26.7 here in McLouth and we have very light freezing drizzle again.
December 18, 2008 4:50 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

Just took a step out into my yard here in lee's summit.

My temp has dropped from 32.4 to 31.3 in the last 30 minutes. Light rain/mist is falling, but my car is just covered in water. None of it is freezing.

Will be interesting to watch the next several hours....
December 18, 2008 4:51 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

32.4 F in Olathe it's falling, please let that trend continue. And great now our Christmas day storm looks like it'll be notin. LRC,LRC,LRC Please be nice and give us a white Christmas, and -20F temps :)
December 18, 2008 4:53 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

Nice rewording on the blog. I understand the need to not throw out specific numbers.

Smart move... ;)
December 18, 2008 4:54 PM
 

Dwxtracker said:

Gary,

Not sure if this means anything, but the temperature here in Lenexa was 31.4 a little while ago, but it has fallen to 30.3 now. Will the temps go back up in a few hours?

David
December 18, 2008 4:54 PM
 

NotesInTheMargin said:

Andrew,

I thought the LRC *was* calling for a storm on Christmas Eve?  Isn't that what was discussed earlier this week?
December 18, 2008 4:55 PM
 

Brent said:

the LRC also called for Ice storms south of Kansas city.
December 18, 2008 4:58 PM
 

northlandergal said:

No -20F Andrew....quit trying to jinx us all.
December 18, 2008 4:59 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

Notes,

There was a blog entry about it over on LRCweather.com yesterday I believe.

Seems as though that storm has already fizzled some on the models. I will be interested to hear the explanation if it doesnt happen.

The storm back in mid november was a large cut-off low.
December 18, 2008 5:02 PM
 

KC_Hams said:

Just went to 152 & 1 Hwy from NKC and the only issue was I started to drift towards the shoulder just south of 152 and it was a little slickery.
December 18, 2008 5:03 PM
 

supercell said:

On to the next two weather events...Have the models flipped out or is the storm for Christmas Eve gone?  Also, looks like the snow chance for Sunday did a disappearing act as well.  Very frustrating!!!
December 18, 2008 5:08 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Glad I worked from home today. Better safe than sorry.

It is 32.5 here in La Cygne and our minimal ice/snow pack from Tuesday's storm is melting nicely off the barn roofs. Southeast wind has really picked up too.

I hope I get a weather station from Santa so I can guage the wind speed too.
December 18, 2008 5:09 PM
 

farmgirl said:

I also forgot to mention that we also have some light mist and fog too.
December 18, 2008 5:12 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

A little T-Shower has developed by Paola
December 18, 2008 5:14 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

just got home and there is indeed a light glaze of ice on the parked car, railings, lawn chairs, and grill.  temp has been dropping.  i believe the low will travel just south of downtown...more easterly than north easterly...
December 18, 2008 5:19 PM
 

FlakeFan said:

32 degrees, with rain and freezing rain.
(Ice accumulations on my roof and on metal surfaces)
December 18, 2008 5:20 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

no melting here today, by the way...a little sublimation-thats it.
December 18, 2008 5:21 PM
 

pmccabe58 said:

here in blue springs the cars are starting to ice over and railiings... roads are getting slick as well. temps arent going to rise anymore (my opinion) they have been falling since 4pm today
December 18, 2008 5:24 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

Wow. Conditions here at my house in LS as worsened exponentially here in the last hour.

Temp has fallen 32.4 to 30.2, and I can now slide across my driveway.

Interesting...
December 18, 2008 5:27 PM
 

davidmcg said:

Gary I like the new weather page, but maybe it could be made better.  Have you ever gone to Weather Underground and taken the Wundermap link?  On that one page you get a lot more layers than on your page.  They even have included neighborhood weather stations rather than just weather stations at airports like yo use.  It also includes lake and river levels.  I just think your page needs a few more tuning points to get me away from Wundermaps.

http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps/gmap.asp?lat=39.19575119&lon=-95.20703125&zoom=10
December 18, 2008 5:28 PM
 

Dwight said:

It may not be a big ice event but it is getting slick outside and the cars are covered with ice in Lee's Summit. Plus, with the refreezing tomorrow morning, there is no guarantee that there will be school.

December 18, 2008 5:33 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

Looks like this low is really starting to fill in right now - thunderstorms getting going as well just to the southwest of the metro. Temperatures are still 28 at KCI... and it sounds like much of the metro is still below freezing.

Always interesting in Kansas City!
December 18, 2008 5:35 PM
 

FlakeFan said:

Just saw lightning, here's the thunder now! Rain everywhere but snow, good sheet of ice on it now.
December 18, 2008 5:38 PM
 

twistedsisters said:

I got thunder and lightening but it is holding steady at 32.
December 18, 2008 5:38 PM
 

Dwxtracker said:

I believe I just heard a clap of thunder here at my house in Lenexa! Was not really expecting that. Just saw a flash of lightning!! WHOA! That was close!

David
December 18, 2008 5:39 PM
 

Laurenccc said:

lightning and thunder at 103rd and Quivira!
December 18, 2008 5:40 PM
 

Ross said:

I just heard thunder here at 56th & Metcalf!
December 18, 2008 5:41 PM
 

Darkwolfe said:

Thunder here in Mission.  Slushy ice on cars in the parking lot.  Not certain of the temp as I don't have a thermometer handy.
December 18, 2008 5:44 PM
 

Randy KD0FFO said:

1/4 inch of ice here in chillicothe
December 18, 2008 5:45 PM
 

dpatel said:

Starting to ice up in Belton, not much on the roads but still their is freezing now.
December 18, 2008 5:45 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

December 18, 2008 5:46 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Big thunderstorm going on here at 87th and I-35
December 18, 2008 5:47 PM
 

TenaciousREI said:

Thunder and lighting here in KCK/Rosedale!

The kids are jumping around now!
December 18, 2008 5:47 PM
 

weatherwyco said:

Good Evening!!

Have some lightning off to the south here in KCK with a temp now down to 28. Just stepped outside and driveway has a nice glaze of ice on it as well, car I just drove home from work at 4:30 also has a nice glaze of ice on it as well, but not the windows. Anxious to see what this line of thuderstorms drops, and what the temps do as well!

Bryan
December 18, 2008 5:48 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

T-storms charging toward LS now, still hanging at 30 degrees.

Freezing Rain Advisory due to expire in 12 minutes...
December 18, 2008 5:48 PM
 

Holmes524 said:

Thunder and lightening here near Worlds of Fun
December 18, 2008 5:51 PM
 

W0XDL said:

I got out of school at about 5:00 PM and had a light coating of ice on my little focus.  Didn't take long to thaw out, thankfully.

Andrew Stafford....I feel your pain and share your enthusiasm for the winter precipitation (although you won't catch me mentioning the "***" word again on this blog!).  I'm all in for some heavy snow for Christmas.

There is a lot of water out there in parking lots.  I wonder if it will all by frozen in the morning and I'll have to skate back up to school?

DL
December 18, 2008 5:52 PM
 

KC_Hams said:

Lots of thunder and lighting in NKC
December 18, 2008 5:54 PM
 

simplykristi said:

We've had lightning and thunder here in south Raytown.  I can't tell if anything is glazed over tho.

Kristi
December 18, 2008 5:54 PM
 

Brent said:

saw some lighting here as well.. freezing rain falling....not very hard= ice though...just slush
December 18, 2008 5:54 PM
 

fanaticweathermom said:

Here north of Basehor we had lightning, thunder and it is raining pretty good.  Weird!  Loving the warm up though.
December 18, 2008 5:55 PM
 

LRCfan said:

Based on my experience this evening like 5 minutes ago I feel down in my driveway when I was putting my car up it's currently 28 in leavenworth with heavy freezing mist driveways are really slick be careful.
December 18, 2008 5:57 PM
 

jcarney said:

Thunder and Lightning up by Zona Rosa now...
December 18, 2008 5:59 PM
 

W0XDL said:

Donder & Blitzen (Thunder and Lighting) in Independence, MO!

DL
December 18, 2008 6:00 PM
 

NotesInTheMargin said:

Penney - Actually, the FRZA advisory is through midnight.
December 18, 2008 6:00 PM
 

LVStormSpotter said:

yeah umm...... pretty bad ice in Columbia,
Definitely below freezing.
Trees are glazed, roads are slick.
December 18, 2008 6:03 PM
 

radman22 said:

We are officially out of the FRZA south of I-70
December 18, 2008 6:05 PM
 

weatherwyco said:

Looks like Johnson County KS and Jackson County MO have been removed from the Freezing Rain Advisory. Warmer air is on the move north now.

Bryan
December 18, 2008 6:05 PM
 

radman22 said:

New Blog!!!!
December 18, 2008 6:06 PM
 

twistedsisters said:

They just extended the FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  

It is still 32 here in Strasburg, Cass county MO.  No icing yet.  It must be a warm 32, LOL  We had a pretty good storm move through with thunder and lightening. Now it is just a light mist.  
December 18, 2008 6:08 PM
 

Randy KD0FFO said:

maybe a little more than a quarter inch of ice here now
December 18, 2008 6:10 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

Notes,

North of downtown you are correct.

However, Jackson county MO, was lifted from the advisory at 6 p.m.
December 18, 2008 6:11 PM
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