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Thunderstorms at 5:45 PM....update

Good evening bloggers,

I am sure you already know this, if you leave near KC, but thunderstorms are moving through Kansas City.  It has caused the roads to quickly become slushy.

We are currently analyzing the potential warm-up.  What do you think?  Is it going to warm up tonight?  Will the warmer air jump north?  I am leaning heavily towards the surface low tracking far enough north to raise temperatures tonight as this fits with what has happened in the past two weeks.  Will the roller-coaster ride continue?

Gary

Published Thursday, December 18, 2008 5:51 PM by glezak

Comments

 

radman22 said:

Amazing they pull the southern half of the metro out of the Adv. just as its getting bad.  Even to the SE it is getting slick.    
December 18, 2008 6:09 PM
 

weatherwyco said:

Portions of the Freezing rain Advisory have been lifted, really if you live south of I-70 it has been dropped.

Bryan
December 18, 2008 6:09 PM
 

rkguitarist5 said:

Thunder and lightning in Kearney w/ heavy rain, getting slick.
December 18, 2008 6:13 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

Bryan,

That is correct. Jackson County MO is no longer in the freezing rain advisory...
December 18, 2008 6:15 PM
 

C in Raymore said:

nervous about tomorrow. we have a funeral to go to that is at 11. Hopefully the roads wont be too bad.
December 18, 2008 6:17 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

Jackson County, MO is under a dense fog advisory though..
December 18, 2008 6:20 PM
 

plazajayhawk said:

so does this mean the morning drive to work will be slick?
December 18, 2008 6:28 PM
 

wthrwatcher87 said:

In Carrollton temp is at 30 degrees and we currently have heavy rain with lightning.
December 18, 2008 6:32 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

Back up to 33 in Lee's Summit for me....
December 18, 2008 6:36 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

No! It won't Gary! I hope...
December 18, 2008 6:39 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

My gut says we won't get warm enough to stay wet, I'm bettin on icy roads in the morning.

Oh and Gary.. my oldest has suggestion for the new weather site... he wants you to add the 3D radar (the thing you use to slice through a storm) and the other stuff you use on air during severe weather season.

Stacy N the Gang
December 18, 2008 6:44 PM
 

stjoelawyer said:

FRIDRIZZLE IN ST JOE
December 18, 2008 6:44 PM
 

JoeKC said:

Shoal Creek/Liberty Area:  29f, light freezing rain, sidewalks slick, streets slushy
December 18, 2008 6:44 PM
 

lvsnow said:

Roads are getting slick in Leavenworth
December 18, 2008 6:52 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Hmmmm.... we have rain coming down and it is making long icicles off the gutters. The lights are flickering - I wonder what is up with that. There is not ice forming on the lines. In fact the porch snow seems to be melting pretty fast.

-North of La Cygne
December 18, 2008 6:53 PM
 

Quilts 4ever said:

How's it look around platte city and the airport?
December 18, 2008 6:53 PM
 

pmccabe58 said:

adam dont know where your gettin 33 i just checked and got 30 in lees summit but maybe different areas idk. its getting really slick up here by barry rd and green hills road. do not believe it will get above freezing. Bundle up everyone for this minor ice storm!
December 18, 2008 6:53 PM
 

sweetness said:

it wont
December 18, 2008 6:55 PM
 

TeacherInStJoe said:

I just went outside to see what it is like. Its very cold, 26.6 with a winchill of 16. Freezing drizzle coming down at the moment. My jeep has a nice layer of ice and the sidewalk is just now starting to ice over some. I'm still worried what will happen once it really starts to rain....
December 18, 2008 6:57 PM
 

PlatteCityMatt said:

Just s. of Platte City it is currently 29 deg. and raining lightly.
December 18, 2008 7:01 PM
 

JJAGMAN said:

Getting slick now on highways where treatment has wore off from the snow the other day at Hwy 36 and Hwy 7 West of St. Joe.  Periods of light rain, but mostly just a heavy mist here.  25 Degrees as of 6:30 with approx 1/8" ice on sidewalks.  It all depends up here on how much rain/mist we get through the night.
December 18, 2008 7:03 PM
 

Quilts 4ever said:

thanks matt - i was just hoping it would be 70 and sunny! 8>)
December 18, 2008 7:04 PM
 

davidmcg said:

Still no warm up here in McLouth Gary, currently sitting at 28.2 and steady, a se wind at 2.8 gusting to 12.3, we have patchy fog, drizzle and occassional freezing rain.  The roads are very slick and ice is accumulating on wires and trees.  The low pressure mu st be vey close with the wind out of the se.  HWY 59 south of Oskaloosa is turning into a parking lot along with most of the paved county roads.
December 18, 2008 7:14 PM
 

Brocksmama said:

Here at 68th Terr. and Oak- near Brookside, just took the dog out and the sidewalks are a solid sheet of ice!!  Bout fell on my Kiester!  Roads aren't as bad due to traffic probably but watch those raised surfaces, driveways and sidewalks! Dea
December 18, 2008 7:14 PM
 

pmccabe58 said:

At 435 it was supposed to be 35 degrees but it is now 28 up on barry and green hills road...... ice storm warning shifting down more?
December 18, 2008 7:14 PM
 

PlatteCityMatt said:

I wish  it was 70 deg. quilts. or 80....or 90.
December 18, 2008 7:15 PM
 

davidmcg said:

Sorry forgot to mention our pressure is 29.88 and falling, dewpoint is 25.4 and humidity is 89%.  No thinder out here tonight
December 18, 2008 7:16 PM
 

MikeandJenn said:

31.8 in Lee's Summit, but I do have ice on my steps and sidewalks
December 18, 2008 7:20 PM
 

EGroves said:

Basically nothing in the Overland Park area all day today.
December 18, 2008 7:21 PM
 

sweetness said:

It has only warmed up 2 degrees in wellington since noon and its actually looking like the temp is going down not much tho
December 18, 2008 7:23 PM
 

Grambo624 said:

I live in LSMO, but teach in KCK and was hoping that conditions would warrant no school tomorrow. I really do not want another horrific commute like I have already had 3 times in the last 2 weeks. I know it is 32 degrees in WYCO now but was wondering what everyone's opinion was about when refreezing was going to occur, or if it would and if all the standing water would cause some problems when it does happen?

Thanks. I have some ice forming but it seems to be warming...
December 18, 2008 7:30 PM
 

Grambo624 said:

I live in LSMO, but teach in KCK and was hoping that conditions would warrant no school tomorrow. I really do not want another horrific commute like I have already had 3 times in the last 2 weeks. I know it is 32 degrees in WYCO now but was wondering what everyone's opinion was about when refreezing was going to occur, or if it would and if all the standing water would cause some problems when it does happen?

Thanks. I have some ice forming but it seems to be warming...
December 18, 2008 7:30 PM
 

Grambo624 said:

I live in LSMO, but teach in KCK and was hoping that conditions would warrant no school tomorrow. I really do not want another horrific commute like I have already had 3 times in the last 2 weeks. I know it is 32 degrees in WYCO now but was wondering what everyone's opinion was about when refreezing was going to occur, or if it would and if all the standing water would cause some problems when it does happen?

Thanks. I have some ice forming but it seems to be warming...
December 18, 2008 7:30 PM
 

stjoelawyer said:

LIGHT RAIN FALLING NOW INSTEAD OF THE HEAVY MIST.  STILL 26 degrees.  looks like the low is on I-70 in western KS moving straight east.  The heavy rain will come, if it does between 11-3 just my hobby thoughts. . . just 35 miles north of here good rain falling i expect they will have issues latter on. . . I think it is a given we stay below 28 0r 29 the ground is real cold and pretreat is not working because of that factor.  Remember sunset at 4;54
December 18, 2008 7:34 PM
 

twistedsisters said:

Still 32 here. No ice though.  It is actually 32.8.  So it is so close to 33. I am guessing that is why we are still liquid and not ice. ????  So far so good. But I do think the roads could be slick by morning.  


Strasburg, MO Cass County
December 18, 2008 7:35 PM
 

Grambo624 said:

Ok, I have no idea how I posted that three times....SORRY!!!!!
December 18, 2008 7:35 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

Maybe I am reading this wrong, but it looks to me the low is currently spinning over the Oklahoma panhandle.

A little farther south than projected?? Maybe someone can tell me if I am right or wrong??


http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/wcwv.html
December 18, 2008 7:36 PM
 

stjoelawyer said:

i am going to say dry slot..........................................................................................................
December 18, 2008 7:36 PM
 

bulldog said:

I know it's early but what might the roads be like tomorrow morning?
December 18, 2008 7:37 PM
 

kristy said:

Just got home from a hair appt in op.  while I was there boy there were a couple LOUD booms and lightening.  Roads are just wet but the driveway here in lee's Summit is icy.  I missed the forecast.  i am wishful thinking that the temps will rise.  Kristy
December 18, 2008 7:40 PM
 

WEATHERdude said:

In southern leawood, were currently at 32.9 last i checked... it seems like rain currently.... and then freezing only on areas with concrete... on the snow its turning into a slush and theres no ice on the trees.... kinda weird i guess the ground is rather cold! I did go out on the streets... they dont seem very good, i bet the salt and sand is getting washed away.

So Gary what is going to happen to our temperatures? It seems to almost be cooling down now... weird. I think it could drop below freezing before midnite.
December 18, 2008 7:42 PM
 

virgastorm said:

I believe the low is just south of Goodland If I'm reading the surface map right...

The winds here in the metro have been southeast and now blowing strieght out of the east the air in central missouri have been around 32 degrees all afternoon. Lake of the ozarks has warmed to 36 and chanute has warmed to 38 at last check and Joplin is 52 Degrees! Wow! 51 Dewpoint! Theres a lot of mositure surging north ahead of this system but again the wind is out of the east where temps still in around freezing to mid 30's in central then you throw in we have snow on the ground here  Not a lot there UGH! If the Low goes over us or just south of us i would say the temp would stay steady. Its crazy!! driving me bonkers! Its a light misty rain here some soft icy slush stuff on the front porch and a little coating the metal suface of the car but not the windshield here in Olathe, KS. don't got a temp ahh I got to go home in Overland Park to check. I leave the predicting up to the weather team. I'm a first time poster long time reader of this blog. Its great to have somewhere to go to discuss weather for all the weather geeks out there (including me)!

Thanks,
Sean
Currently 151st and murlen, Olathe, KS
December 18, 2008 7:43 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

From KC NWS

"FREEZING LINE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE W-E AXIS OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. WITH STRONG NELY
AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN EAST TO ENE SURFACE
WINDS...EXPECT THAT SURFACE WARM ADVECTION WILL FAIL TO PROGRESS UP
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF THE RIVER...THUS PROLONGING THE
LONGEVITY OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NRN KC METRO ON EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...WITH AIRMASS NOW SATURATED...DIABATIC WARMING DUE TO THE
10C LAYER AT 850MB WILL LIKELY ALLOW COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF
THE RIVER TO WARM TO 32-33F BEFORE 06Z. EVEN SO...PLACES WITH SFC
TEMPS > 30F HAVE TYPICALLY DEALT WITH WET ROADWAYS AND ICE ACCRETION
HAS BEEN RESTRICTED TO ELEVATED SURFACES. CURRENT FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY/ICE STORM WARNING BULLETINS ON TARGET AND NO IMMEDIATE
CHANGES PLANNED."
December 18, 2008 7:45 PM
 

WEATHERdude said:

Adam, it looks like that low is just near goodland... idk if thats where it was projected tho.
December 18, 2008 7:46 PM
 

LibertyJeff said:

Everything in Liberty is covered in ICE.  Just went out to eat thinking it wouldn't be so bad and realized that was a wrong assumption!  Streets are very slushy and beginning to harden some.  Temp seems stuck at 28.  Rain dropped back to more of a heavy mist again.  With what Andrew just posted from NWS I would agree about North of river staying colder.  It really feels it right now.

Watching the regional radar loop, I am concerned about the Low tracking more Eastward than Northeast.  Last several frames seemed to come due East from Colorado into Kansas.  Your thoughts Gary!
Jeff
December 18, 2008 7:54 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

Man, talk about such a close call for all of us south of I-70. Another 50-75 miles to the south would have made such a huge difference.

i have no learned how difficult these are to forecast.  

On the other hand, I now have some other concerns personally for my weekend.

Tomorrow I am driving to Minneapolis/St. Paul, and will be there until Monday.


This should be fun there over the weekend... ;)

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MNZ083&warncounty=MNC013&firewxzone=MNZ083&local_place1=Mankato+MN&product1=Blizzard+Watch


Wow....
December 18, 2008 7:56 PM
 

kellyann said:

I came home about 5:30 tonight and my driveway was slick, almost slid into the garage. I just went out to check my mail and slid off the porch, then I couldn't walk up my driveway because it was so slick, lol, but I sure made it back down the drive fast :)
December 18, 2008 7:56 PM
 

kellyann said:

By the way, I live in Wyandotte county near the Legends.
December 18, 2008 7:57 PM
 

Staley Joe said:

Shoveled the drive after the snowstorm...wish I had waited...30 degrees here and couldn't get up my gently sloping driveway...to slick.
December 18, 2008 7:59 PM
 

Jeffro said:

From the NWS- 33 degrees in Olathe. 34 degrees at the downtown airport.  I think that answers the question.  Downtown is up 2 degrees in the last hour.
December 18, 2008 8:04 PM
 

twistedsisters said:

Still sitting at 32.8 here.  I keep waiting for it to change so I can see which way it is trending but it ain't moving.  
December 18, 2008 8:11 PM
 

marlina10 said:

It is 32 degrees here in Mission. We have slick slush on the sidewalks and in parking lots. Vehicles that haven't moved in a while have a nice layer of ice on them. I, too, am curious about what our drive to work tomorrow morning will be like.
December 18, 2008 8:29 PM
 

JJAGMAN said:

Wind picking up West of St. Joe...Light rain is still falling here that is freezing on everything.  Any thoughts on how much ice we will get along Hwy 36?  Are we still on track for 1/4" - 1/2"??  Or are we talking more now....
December 18, 2008 8:33 PM
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