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Arctic front is approaching....Winter Begins Sunday

Happy Saturday morning everyone,

Winter begins at 6:04 AM Sunday and it is going to feel like it!  It is my favorite season and it looks like an exciting one.  The Arctic front is approaching on this first day of winter.  Look at the 8 AM surface map:

After the front moves through there may be some snow flurries.  Extremely dry air will be blasting in tonight, but there still may be some light snow showers or flurries on Sunday.  Then we will look ahead to Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. The last few model runs have had some kind of snowstorm here on Christmas Eve, and a hint of a chance of snow on Christmas Day.  It is only four days away, and my confidence level goes much higher on these types of storm systems when we get within three days. What I mean by this type of system is that these are likely fast moving shortwaves, or small quick moving upper level storm systems.  Let's see what it looks like later today or tonight.

Have a great Saturday. 

Gary

Published Saturday, December 20, 2008 6:46 AM by glezak

Comments

 

momof3 said:

I guess I am first although I really don't have anything interesting or educational to offer!  I am crossing my fingers for snow on christmas and hope everyone has a nice weekend.
December 20, 2008 7:42 AM
 

juba said:

When is it expected to come through Lawrence?
December 20, 2008 8:01 AM
 

farmgirl said:

Are we talking sustained 20-40 MPH or does that include gusts up to 40 MPH?

When do you think the winds will relax?

------------------

It looks more like around 20 to 25 mph with some higher gusts.

Gary

December 20, 2008 8:18 AM
 

Ipushsnow said:

I would love on Christmas Eve or Day for the whole white Christmas thing, but if we get 2" or more then I will have to work.I can't recall the last time(if ever)in the last 14 years I've had to plow on Christmas.
December 20, 2008 8:25 AM
 

Nick Rau said:

Man... wind chills down to -30!!  And that's with the scale we have now, we really are lucky we did not see a major ice storm with the last event, because if we did it would turn this arctic blast from a severe inconvenience into a catastrophe.
December 20, 2008 8:35 AM
 

Nick Rau said:

I looked at the old wind chill scale to compare this blast with ones from a long time ago... 1999 and before and wow yes it does stand up I wont put up what is says so I don't confuse people I just thought it was interesting to look at.

-------------------

Nick,

It is too bad this trough didn't dig a bit harder to just give us a little bit of snow.  But, maybe it is O.K. as Tuesday through Christmas Day have a few chances for snow.  I am dreaming of a White Christmas!

Gary

December 20, 2008 8:42 AM
 

johnj said:

Wow!  I just saw a robin!  Does that mean it's spring already or was this just one of those silly critters that actually like this weather?
December 20, 2008 8:56 AM
 

lvsnow said:

Was just wondering if anyone knows what the roads are like over by Metro North Mall?
December 20, 2008 8:59 AM
 

JPnKC said:

Looks like the GFS has pulled back on the moisture for the Wed event...

JP
December 20, 2008 9:01 AM
 

marlina10 said:

Today and tomorrow will definitely be days to put on extra layers.  I'm doing the snow dance so we get snow on Christmas Eve!
December 20, 2008 9:01 AM
 

rsparkster said:

When do you think the winds will start with the negative wind chills?
December 20, 2008 9:08 AM
 

bulldog said:

My son wanted to know how the exact time and date of winters start is calculated.  Thanks!!  Anyone can answer- thanks again-Audrey
December 20, 2008 9:14 AM
 

W0XDL said:

Good Morning Audrey,

I don't know how it is always calculated but the 2008 Winter Solstice began at 7:04 EST.  

Have a nice, albeit COLD, day:)

DL

------------

We were off by a day.  I had the calendar wrong.  It begins tomorrow.

Gary

December 20, 2008 9:25 AM
 

Emmysmom said:

I know we are concentrating on Christmas Eve/Day now, but I was wondering what the weekend after Christmas looks like.  I hope to travel to Lincoln, NE Friday and back on Sunday, but wont risk it if we are going to get anything of interest.  Your thoughts on this a week out?  I wont hold you to anything, of course, because I know how things can change so quick here, but just wondering what your crystal ball currently shows : )
December 20, 2008 9:34 AM
 

Nick Rau said:

We still have most of our snow or well kind of icy stuff so We MAY  be a lock on a white Christmas IF we don't have any surprise warm ups, but it would be cool if the entire area got a white Christmas. :)
December 20, 2008 9:36 AM
 

lvsnow said:

It's light flurries in Leavenworth, and it is cold.  I always hope for snow, cause if i am going to be off work, i want something to play in.
December 20, 2008 9:39 AM
 

bewild79 said:

lvsnow,
The roads by metro are just fine.  You may see an ice patch or 2 on side streets but everything over here is mainly dry.
becky
December 20, 2008 9:47 AM
 

farmgirl said:

Thank you for answering my wind questions Gary. You know I am a big wind chicken. :)

I just went out and bundled up the horses with their blankets. I can truely say I have horses of many colors - blue, burgandy and green. Ha!
December 20, 2008 10:04 AM
 

mdg2fast4u said:

Light flurries in South Lee's Summit.
December 20, 2008 10:30 AM
 

DeniseRD said:

Here's a link where you can watch the soltice sunrise live from the megalithic tomb of Newgrange in Ireland.   This is NASA's Astronomy Picture of the Day site (which I'm sure many of you enjoy as much as I do) and there's a link at the bottom to watch the live streaming video which will start at 2:30 am our time on Sunday.  I think it will run from 2:30-3:30 am our time (3:30-4:30 am EST).  

http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html
December 20, 2008 10:45 AM
 

FlakeFan said:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/nowcast.php?site=eax

Up to an inch acroos northern missouri and northeastern kansas.
December 20, 2008 10:57 AM
 

marlina10 said:

Audrey,
The winter solstice is calculated by determining the minute when the distance between the sun and the Tropic of Capricorn is the shortest.
December 20, 2008 11:24 AM
 

JPnKC said:

Scrap my previous comment on the GFS and moisture- its looking good for a White Christmas Eve as I see it now.
December 20, 2008 11:31 AM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

29.5 here in Olathe and crashing.

http://www.wunderground.com/swf/Rapid_Fire.swf?units=english&station=KKSOLATH16
December 20, 2008 11:33 AM
 

Holmes524 said:

Christmas shopping done, Grocery shopping done, visited mom at nursing home, put gas in the car, bought popcorn, rent Dark Knight.  Cooking Ham and Beans  I finished my check off list for the cold weather.  There are flurries North of the River.
December 20, 2008 11:37 AM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

Hey Holmes,
Could you email me the recipe for ham and beans. I read your post to my husband and the mention of ham and beans peaked his interest. Thanks
I'm trying to get him moving so we can to do stuff before the temps crash.
Audra
audra@gatrworks.com
December 20, 2008 11:46 AM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

We've steadied out for now at 29.1, AFC is somewhere between Lawrence, and Olathe... I think?


http://www.wunderground.com/swf/Rapid_Fire.swf?units=english&station=KKSOLATH16
December 20, 2008 11:54 AM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

28.8 now
December 20, 2008 12:04 PM
 

NotesInTheMargin said:

Gary,

I'm curious why you progged the cold front so far to the west this morning?  

It seems as though as of the sufrace plot you posted, the front had actually already progressed to the KC area.  If you look at both the wind shift and the pressure trough, they were along about a KC to Chanute to just W of Tulsa line to me...

Like the last arctic front earlier in the week, it sure seems to have arrived a good 6-8 hours sooner than most models predicted.
December 20, 2008 12:13 PM
 

MikeTrainor1 said:

well, i missed yesterday's question, but we got alot done this morning before the cold comes in: wash cars, trip to the vet's for a nail trimming on the hounds, finished Christmas shopping, grocery store run, dry cleaner run, gas station run and done! we can stay in tomorrow!

so, when's the next warm-up? march? i know there're lot of winter lovers who post here, but dang i'm ready for a warm-up (and not one that comes in overnight!).

mike
December 20, 2008 12:21 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

Notes,

Look at the Dewpoints and Temps. also
December 20, 2008 12:21 PM
 

Holmes524 said:

I hit the trails at 730 this morning.  The stores were already busy.  We still have snow here North of the River but we could use some more.  Now in my best singing voice:

Let It SNOW Let It SNOW Let It SNOW!!!
December 20, 2008 12:22 PM
 

bulldog said:

Thanks everyone for the answers!  One more statistic for him to memorize. I think he will be a great contestant for Jeopardy one of these days!  (even now he often beats me when we watch together) Got the tarp secured on the back of the chicken coop, fresh gravel on the driveway and cookies going in the oven.  So I'd say were ready for this blast!
December 20, 2008 12:27 PM
 

JoeKC said:

Front is definitely moving through the Shoal Creek/Liberty area.  Temps are dropping slowly and we have flurries that are so fine they're like grains of sugar.
December 20, 2008 12:28 PM
 

FlakeFan said:

Nice snow right now!
December 20, 2008 12:29 PM
 

Stormdog said:

Stormdog says enough with this winter crap - I am sick (literally today) and sick of freezing my hindparts off - can't take dogs to the dog park, can't walk - joints ache.
When one is young, winter can almost be enjoyed, but for me, it is a season of dread, depression and so on...  However, this winter will obviously satisfy those who "love" snow.  What a bummer for me, but different strokes for different folks, as it is said.   Sorry guys, just venting - Stormdog is a Spring dog, not a Winter one - growing up in Boston left me with a wish for warmth, that's all.

On the plus side, vigorous storms systems, chartwise are interesting, just wish my house would get rain, and everyone else snow, if that is what they desire.

Winter....BAH...HUMBUG! :)
A Miserable Dog
December 20, 2008 12:32 PM
 

camatz6 said:

Pretty good snow shower going on here in Tonganoxie with 24 for the cold temp.
December 20, 2008 12:40 PM
 

JoeKC said:

I think I can see the front on radar, just entering Wyandotte County and carving through the center of Platte County.  Interesting.
December 20, 2008 12:42 PM
 

Dwxtracker said:

Notes,

The front is shown to be up in Nebraska for a number of reasons. One, that is were the sharpest temperature drop off is (notice how it goes from 21 in Nebraska City to 8 in Lincoln), two, the winds pick up and are the strongest in that region, and three the dew points also take a dive there. So, while our winds are from the north, and the pressures are lower to the south, the real front is just now making it to KC, which puts the front here just about on schedule.

Now, maybe Gary has some other reasons, but that's how I see it.

David
December 20, 2008 12:48 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

I think I see it on radar too... right along where the snow showers seem to be developing
December 20, 2008 12:52 PM
 

FlakeFan said:

New Blog
December 20, 2008 12:54 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

28 here, Dewpoint is 19.6 and both are falling winds NNW 5-10 mph
December 20, 2008 12:55 PM
 

Greg said:

I'm with ya Dog, don't let it get you down too much though, better days are ahead... eventually.
December 20, 2008 1:01 PM
 

JoeKC said:

The sun just popped out here in Clay County, near Liberty.  Weird.  Temps dropped a couple of degrees, now holding at 25f
December 20, 2008 1:01 PM
 

MrSteve said:

I think I am a hopeless case.  I am apparently doomed to zero joy or happiness with this kind of weather.
December 20, 2008 1:27 PM
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