NBC Action Communities

Merry Christmas Jeremey.  Enjoy your time off.  

my prediction for metro is 4".south side 3.5". north side 6"+.

Nice entry Jeremy!! Enjoy your vacation and time with your girls!! Merry Christmas!!! The best Christmas present my girls could get is some snow. I am keeping my fingers crossed.
Monica

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Monica,

Hopefully you guys see at least 1" of snow.  I'm heading to an area that has already had 40" of snow this winter!

Jeremy

ZERO already heading down but no records need to get to -20 to break a record low/ . . but still cold. . . we have about 2.5 inches of white crusty snow still even on south facing hills as well, the freezing rain just more or less made it into ice. . . a nice 4-6 inch coating for all would be nice. . . but will settle for 2-4. . . 7 inches for the season so far.

what about next saturday////

A year ago tomarrow thunder snow and 8 inches fell here that gave us a white Christmas. . .from 11 am ended a 7 pm.

May God Bless all of you and yours this blessed time of the year.

2-3Ft please, and -10 temps!!

andrew i dont see a 2'-3' snow happening in this storm maybe in 2009

Hey guys I am on my blackberry. How much precip are the 0z  models showing for wednesday morning?

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The NAM has about .10-.25" in some areas from KC and points south.  Not a big snow snow producer according to the NAM.

Jeremy

Merry Christmas to all !  I lurk here many times but rarely comment, but this talk of a white Christmas is getting my hopes up. Are we talking about an inch or two or...more???  Thanks to all of you for taking the time to talk about this crazy weather that we are having and for putting it in terms that most everyone can understand.  This is definitely an interesting winter.  LET IT SNOW!!!

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Don't get overly excited...but it would be enough to give some a white Christmas.

Jeremy

Reminds you of the old days huh?  Nothing like a blast from the past.  Your sure you'll stop into the blog if the weather gets exciting?  Ahhh come on, your a serious weather man, we know you'll stop in, you may not be pleased with they type of precip or the temp, who is, but its exciting all the same you'll be here.   Now why would the NWS be anything but way off on a forecast let alone a long ranger?  They rely far too much of models and climatological data to be taken to serious as far as I am concerned.  Honestly anything more than a 24 hour forecast during times of changing weather is worthless.  The weather just changes to fast and too often to get an accurate picture beyond 24 hours.  You can get a general out to 72, but not accurate.  The LRC thats a different ballgame all together.  I think if the NWS hadn't have hyped La Nina and El Nino so much 10 years ago they would give the LRC more serious thoughts.  But thats the that and over with.  This next quickie pass I don't think will leave much behind in its wake.  I think it is going to run to fast to do much, sort of like what we saw the day after Thanksgiving.  Just enough to look pretty and cause a little concern, but nothing big, maybe an inch to an inch and a half depending on which side of I-35/I-70 you live on.

Right now its 2.1 here in McLouth,  I hope you all enjoyed that 10 degrees you had, our high was 7.1 out here.

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That 2.9 degrees made a huge difference today:)

Jeremy

Something didn't agree with my stomach today! :-b

Sitting at 3 degrees right now.

8.4 here in OLATHE

Merry Christmas Jeremy.

JP

Jeremy, can you clarify something for me?

The other day, just as Lee's Summit was starting to have freezing rain the NWS discontinued the freezing rain advisory.

Now I see that we are at 6 degrees with a wind chill well below zero yet we are not in a wind chill advisory.

I don't understand!!!!

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I would say with the freezing rain advisory the milder air was moving in so fast the period of freezing rain was very brief.  So the advisory was discontinued.  The wind chill advisory is where the coldest air will be seen tonight and the strongest winds.  Sometimes they just have to draw the line somewhere.  Obvisouly someone living near a county line will see about the same weather as someone in an advisory.  Generally the issuance of advisoreis is a judgement call, and overall the NWS does a good job with the placement.

Jeremy

Aww I always forget that Sunday Night Football makes the news come on later lol, but im gonna stay up and watch of course! Have a good vacation Jeremy and Merry Christmas to you and your family!

Wow heavysnow that means they are saying more than previously expected now???? Please lol

"With that said our winter forecast based on the LRC called for a cold winter with average to slightly above average snowfall.  I pulled the graphic below from one of our blogs back in November when the Climate Prediction Center issued their temperature forecast for the winter.  Unless a big change occurs in January or February...this forecast will be a big bust."

Big bust in what way?  I re-read the blog and maybe I am having a dense moment.  Will it be a big bust in terms of temps or snowfall?  Are you thinking we'll have colder temps and more snowfall than expected/predicted?

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I'm saying the CPC 90 day temperature forecast will be a bust.  I think our forecast based on the LRC will work out just fine for the winter.

Jeremy

Thanks for the response, Jeremy.  Have a great holiday and vacation!

Is it me, or does it seem like the Climate Prediction Center always predicts a warmer than average winter every year?

Further evidence of the LRC outperforming other "accepted" forecasts.  

So for those of us who have to work Tuesday and Wednesday, it sounds like the Tuesday evening rush hour and any travel on Wednesday is going to be a real mess.  Would you say this is true?

And I see your 30% chance of precip on Saturday. Does this look to be a pretty good possibility, and is this going to be a one day nuisance?  We are hoping to travel to Lincoln, NE Friday returning Sunday, so as long as whatever happens on Saturday stays on Saturday, I'm hoping we'll be good.  ??????

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Hard to tell if Tuesday rush would be tough.  That is about a 2 hour window...hopefully by Monday evening we will get timing specific.  I think the worst of whatever we get would probably be Tuesday night.

Jeremy

"Further evidence of the LRC outperforming other "accepted" forecasts."

The LRC has blown away any winter forecast that was out there.   Nailed the cold air before anybody mentioned it.   Never went overboard with the snow totals and they seem about right.   We have had glancing blows from most of these storms and I would expect this to continue.   We will prob get 1 good 6" storm in the area, but the ridge has had a huge impact on who gets what.   Paint a strip to our north from Iowa to Chicago to the inlands of the NE and the start of winter has been amazing.    They will be talking about this winter for years in parts of the country.   Very exciting and fun to watch unfold.    

BLOGGERS_
Latest GFS really paints a nice snow storm at 60 hours...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p12_060l.gif
ryan

Thanks for the response Jeremy. Have a good vacation and holiday!

Gary:

Good cold winter's morning to you sir!! Currently sitting at a "balmy" 1 degree here in SW Lawrence-it is amazing how quite it is outside this morning-nothing is stirring-even the old hoot owl is hunkered down this morning!!

Man-yesterday was just flat out cold!! I was in The Northland yesterday at my parent's house and had to do some things outside and yesterday was as cold a day as I have felt in some time-that wind-wow!!! Got a good picture of my oldest son sitting by the frozen waterfall in my dad's landscaped pond-yes indeed, he has my wierd fondness for cold weather!!! LOL

Looking at the 10Z surface charts, I think that arctic high is currently just SW of Lawrence but I am wondering if it has not already drifted a bit to our East as I am pretty sure our winds have now turned a little bit to the South. Kind of interersting to see how the temps. have responded somewhat out in Wetsern Kansas, Nebraksa, Eastern Wyoming and central Montana. I think it will be interesting to follow that arctic high and see just where it goes over the next 24 hours and see if it really drifts as far South as the models show-on the 0z GFS that thing is kind of taking a tour of the US-man, it goes everywhere LOL. I just think where it winds up by tomorrow will play a role in how everything works out for Tuesday-Thursday.

Seems like the models want to paint some fairly decent QPF amounts in the area in the Tuesday/Thursday time frame but where will our temps. be when it is falling from the sky?? It seems like we have a race between the precip. and the waa-what else is new for here?? LOL The Canadian Global on 12Z yesterday (yea-I'm pulling out all the stops for this week) painted a bit more vigorous 500 vort. and that the Euro and GFS at 0Z is kind of alling in line with that-but the Euro and GFS I think both have us really on the line for at least some of this activity as the GFS takes the 850 low North of us. Another incredibly complicated forecast-I was really hoping that the arctic high would kind of stay anchored this time to our North/North East and not drift so far South helping to lock in the colder air a bit better but in looking at the LRC this year I should have known better!!

Well, as always, this will be fascinating to follow and again, a great time to learn!! I am excited as we have a chance at some wintery precip. this week-in the end, as a winter weather lover, you really can't ask for more!!!! Let the games begin!!!! LOL

Have a great day and a shout out to Jeremy to have a great Holiday!! I am looking forward to following everything this week and today I am going to try and take the boys out to the cabin-always a neat experience for them to see where just 3 months before we were swimming now frozen up solid!!! No, we will not be getting on the ice LOL!!!!

Again, have a great day and as always thanks for reading!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

I am writing my blog right now.  This pattern is unique as described by the LRC.  And, somewhat frustrating at times, but in the end we may still get hit at least one or two times by a substantial storm, so we must be patient.  This week will be fun to watch.

Gary