NBC Action Communities

Any thoughts on what time the precip may start tomorrow?  Sounds like once it does, it will be pretty non-stop thing.

How about the "ending" on Wednesday?  When are you looking for it to clear out?

Thanks for keeping us all updated!

Well, well they left you all alone in the sandbox.  Well this interpritation thing can really get crazy sometimes.  Thankfully you also have the LRC to help guide you through the mess.  NWS Topeka is posting a real mess for Tuesday starting at 5AM.  They got 4 houts of possible freezing rain/sleet, followed by about 5 hours of rain and then switching to all snow with a total of 2.9 for Jefferson County KS.  I still say we'll see what we will see.  Thankfully its warmer today than yesterday and the wind is gone.

Thanks for the extra effort, Gary. You and your team are truly the best...not only in terms of meterology, but your overall professionalism and engagement with the communities you serve.

Best to you and yours.

Mike

That was a good blog, Gary.  Very straightforward and honest.

Gee, Gary...
You mean you can't be doing more than one thing at a time?
We all thought you were Superman !! LOL

Seriously, thank you for the time and attention all of the team
gives to this blog. Of course that is in additon to you personally
getting up so early during the week to give the forecast on KMBZ,
then dealing with the hectic schedule when a storm is brewing.
KUDOS to all of you !
Have a VERY Merry Christmas Gary !

I am new to commenting on the blog but I do check the blog daily to see just what is going to happen with the Weather.  I know that once Gary and his team say it is going to happen it usually does. : ) Thank you guys for being so accurate.  Keep up the Great Work! :)

i see how it is gary, you wait until i post my last thoughts on the blog, and then you make a new one.  i will not stand for this censorship!

"one thing that is being overlooked is that it has been extremely dry here this winter.  its not being discussed by the weather team for obvious reasons, but that is why these storms arent producing a lot for us.  we have done a fantastic job considering we are way behind on precip for the season.  these storms are forming in the right way for us.  but when you are -1.41" liquid behind where you should be for nov/dec its kinda hard to expect a lot of big snows.  we should be considering ourselves lucky that we are running around average for snow so far-which is due solely to the cooler than average conditions we are experiencing.  

if only anyone saw a drier winter with near average snowfall due to cooler than average temps coming..."

you do a good job interpreting short term models gary, especially the trickier ones involving ice, props!

Interestingly Accuweather (while more of a general then specific forecast site) has us getting .2 inches of ice and 4.5 inches of snow )snow combining 24 and 26th.  They have been on target for us the last two storms at the 36-48 hour out mark.  This is going to be an intriguing storm.

For last week and through Christmas I would like to have been back home in Iowa.  My home town has had over 15 inches of snow (but extremely cold and blizzard conditions) but would definitely make for a white Christmas.

Cloudy and damp is all I feel outside, like a little bit of fog. What's the forecast for JoCo airport Tue & Tue night?

For southeastern parts of the viewing area:


Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
222 PM CST MON DEC 22 2008

...A MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN ARE
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI ON
TUESDAY...

.A MIXTURE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS THAT WILL SPREAD OVER THE TOP OF A PERSISTENT ARCTIC
DOME OF COLD AIR NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE OZARKS. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING ICE AND SLEET WILL OCCUR EAST OF AN OSCEOLA TO
SPRINGFIELD TO KIMBERLING CITY LINE. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES
RISE ABOVE FREEZING..

MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-090>092-095>098-103>106-230430-
/O.CON.KSGF.WW.Y.0014.081223T1200Z-081224T0000Z/
BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-
PHELPS-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-
CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-STONE-TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...BOLIVAR...
BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...SPRINGFIELD...
MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NIXA...
OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...KIMBERLING CITY...
GALENA...BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...
ALTON
222 PM CST MON DEC 22 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM
CST TUESDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST
TUESDAY.

FREEZING DRIZZLE...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI FROM EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE ACCUMULATIONS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR. SLEET ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A HALF INCH ARE ALSO
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

CLAYCOMB

Maybe this is a stupid question but I'm sure someone knows.  If it's snowing above us but is too dry to snow what is happening to it?  If it's snowing heavy enough above us wouldn't a little come to the ground?  Thanks to whoever can help me understand this.

Gary thanks for always providing the most enthusiastic forecast for the KC communities. You are the main reason that I watch NBC Action News. I've seen the other guys (other channels) and they don't do as much for the community as you do. You are always there for the community and have a strong passion for helping us understand what's going on with the weather. Keep up the good work!
--Jeff (Belton)

Wow, a strong warm-up today, from a low of -11 at Rosecrans to 16 above now= 27 degree warm up!  you know it is cold when you can warm up almost 30 degrees and not hit 20, last night you could taste the polar bear in your mouth;)    Now for some fun tracking these storms!!

Stormlover,
  I don't know if I can give you a good answer, but this is what I think happens.  When the snow falls from a satuated part of the atmosphere to a very dry area, sublimation occurs.  This moisture collects and forms lower level clouds which are needed if snow is to make it to the ground.  I do believe that if is snowed very heavily then the time it takes to saturate the atmosphere would be more quickly and therefore getting flakes to the ground even more quickly.  Please correct if anyone has a better answer or if I am incorrect.

Matt

I also will thank you for doing such a great job keeping us informed.   While we may be sad not to get the major brunt of the latest storms, you update us as it changes and keep it very exciting and informative.   It is amazing to see another storm pass through that will include rain.   It was just 0 this morning!!!!    Then to add insult to injury, we see how the waves of disturbances will pass first to our south tonight, then to our north Tuesday night.      I will repeat what I stated in a previous blog that this winter will be talked about for Iowa to Wisc and to the NE of there for some time.     Seems like most the storm really get going once they get past us.     I envy Chicago with all the snow they keep getting.

Lets hope the storm digs south of the metro and we all get a nice coat of snow...not just a inch.    

Thanks again for all your hard work!!   Other stations change their forecasts daily (with major extremes) without explaining why... something you never do.    Some may want to be critical of you, but they are just mad at mother nature.    Even you can only do so much once the storm track is fully defined.    

Joe

The 18z GFS looks more impressive for QPF, I think?

Stormlover:   It is evaporating in the cool air before it hits the ground.   If its heavy snow, it would saturate the lower levels and eventually lead to snow coming down.  

Stormlover,
  I don't know if that is very good answer or what you are looking for, just didn't want to leave you hanging with your question.  So I thought I would give it a try.

any answer i give will be bashed by about 4 people in here stormlover, I'd be happy to google or wiki it for you!

These people are brave! I like!

http://www.boingboing.net/2008/12/19/a-visit-to-the-colde.html

Yes, the 18Z GFS is defenitely more impressive than the past few runs.  Let's hope this is the start of a trend!

I do not like snow in the air.
I do not like snow anywhere.

Not on my car, no snow for me.
I have to much shopping left you see.

I do not like snow, I think it's scary
So stop it if you would please Gary.



Sorry, schools out and I'm bored. :)

I don't really post anymore but I still read.  They have already cancelled school for tomorrow at my sons school.  I feel like it is a little pre-mature for that or do you all think it is such a sure thing.  I just remember what Gary said about the dry slot positioning and its affect...

---------------------

There is a chance of some problems during the morning on Tuesday.  It is one of those things that can develop real fast during the morning rush hour.  But, it isn't a sure thing yet.

Gary

thank you everyone...that does make sense.  I feel more knowledgeable!

I think we will get a decent little snow out of this. It won't satisfy the crazy, I-want-10-feet types but should give a nice little coating for Christmas.

I am really enjoying the new page. I read your blog everyday. Gary, you and your team have done such a wonderful job, so accurate!!. Thank you.

-----------------

Happy Holidays to you and your family!  Thank you so much.

Gary

Who is still in school? Winter break in my area started on friday.

Is it still too early to predict what kinds of totals we might get out of the upcoming snow?

----------------

I think we have a 1 to 3 inch potential, but picking the line where there will be no accumulation south of this line is still very difficult.

Gary

56 degrees on Friday????  

That stinks and newest GFS took away what could have been a heck of a storm on Saturday away from us.......


Only 1 to 3 inches Wednesday?  That sucks too.... I am sick of this nickel and dime stuff

I called it over the weekend on the blogs for Christmas.  1-3 inches as usual...this isnt the year for big snow. Callin it now!

I hope those temps are wrong!  And I hope that we get more snow than predicted afterall it's Christmas!

Its so hard to wait patiently for our big snow storm, im trying so hard to stay calm and except the snow that we do get.

1-3" is all we seem to get these days. Only problem I've had this year is taking Quivira home from 103rd to 87th.... Packed like crazy.

Dry slot is the bad word right now, watch the dry slot go north, everything south gets rain, then .5" tomorrow night... :D

H.

Yes, it will be nice on my days off : )

Just a question and correct me if I am wrong.  You have had the most accurate weather forecasting for 6 years running.  And we know the competition checks on your forecasting.  Why is it so hard for them to see the recurring cycle like you do Gary?  It just boggles my mind, that after all these years, you still have the most accuracy and others aren't following suit.  BTW, I have told MANY people how accurate you are, and have heard many people say the same to me.  So kudos for you and your team.  Keep up the great work!

----------------------------

There is a buzz about my theory gradually spreading around other blogs in other parts of the nation.  When it comes to forecasting the weather there is just so much more to it.

Gary

Crossing my fingers, and dancing lile crazy!

Okay, so just saw the weather, but Gary, you were standing in the way while the time was clicking around 5:00 tomorrow.  :) Is this thing going to start in the morning and last until Wednesday morning?  Or will there be a break for commuters?

And from what you currently see, what time do you think the snow will be ending on Wednesday?

---------------------

Right now I think the snow will end around 9 AM Wednesday.  And, I am sorry about standing in front of the map.  The precipitation should be on and off.

Gary

Gary I have a Question. I have to drive I-70 Tomorrow from KC to St. Louis and then take another highway down to Southern Illinois from St. louis. Do u expect roads to be very slick since they are under a Freezing rain Advisory

Snowing hard in Carrollton

Lonnie

pvt - ""one thing that is being overlooked is that it has been extremely dry here this winter"

Looking at the last 30 days for the region based on the AHPS analysis, you certainly have been dry and below norm in your area...south of KMCI into the metro and south, it hasn't been as bad ranging from 90% of average to 110% of average.

http://water.weather.gov/ percent of average/last 30 days/EAX WFO

We are just three weeks into meteorological winter...we have a lot of time to go yet.

;-)

what happened to sat. potiential storm is it a lost cause at this point?

That's okay, Gary : )  I'll forgive you.  I am just very concerned about driving in anything so I was watching to see what 5:00 looked like.
I will definitely be paying close attention to the 10:00 news and all blog updates...to see if it's possible for me to get up and out and to work early enough to avoid driving in the stuff.  Looks like I'm pretty much stuck braving it on Wednesday!  

Gary,

Your best guess please.  I am going to Chicago and scheduled to leave at 2pm on Wednesday.  It looks like Chicago is in for it as well.  Do you think I will have a better chance getting out ok KC on Tues or Wed to Chicago.

Thanks

Sorry, I am Flying

Hey Gary, up here in Albany, MO, we are getting a pretty good snow shower.  Walked out the door to bring my boarder collie "Chief" in for the night and it was a surprise to see it snowing so hard.  By the way, "Chief" says hi to "Windy" and "Stormy"

Gary, I'm so excited about the potential for 50+ degrees for Friday and Monday as I  am off on those two days. I may actaully get to ride a horse. WooHoo!! Does it look like it will be windy to get to those warm temps?

Scott, in regards to your comments to the private concerning precipitation deficits in the area.  You have to be careful with cummulative precipiation radar due to small scale errors.  There are no official reporting stations around the area anywhere near average precipitation for December, the last 30 days, the last 60 days or the last 90 days.  The only significant rainfall in the metro during this time came on October 22.  Since you are promoting a theory relating to long term weather patterns, I would think you might take notice of that.

good point scott.  one of my concerns is that this deficit has included the more active part of the apparent cycle as well, so, the dryness could potentially expand when things slow down.  which could happen sooner than later...

we will see, like you said, it is too early to speculate on how the whole winter is going to act.  although it goes against the theory of cycling to suggest that things may behave differently the next time through to an extent.  i am rooting for the theory.  but needless to say there are some inconsistencies.  

---------------

Pvt Murphy,

It really doesn't go against the theory to say the next time through the cycle things may act differently.  To forecast the specific weather may be quite challenging, but the pattern is still cycling.  And, this is unique.

Gary

currently snowing up here. Dusting on the driveway.

Randy, where is up here?

0.5" of snow here in trenton.. with a quick burst of sleet to end it.. i sent you a picture gary.

------------------

Wow!  That was probably graupel when it ended.  Thanks for the report.

Gary

I figure we will get enough snow to hang around for Christmas day.  It would be nice.  I am hoping it snows enough tomorrow night to watch my neighbor's dogs play in it on Wed. :)

I know some of you would love a big snow...  Who knows when it will happen?  I have been waiting for one big snow for a long time. :)  Just be patient.

For those of you are heading out of town, you need to check road conditions with MODOT, KSDOT, and other surrounding states.

Kristi

Kristi, great suggestion.  Here are the websites for MO & KS road conditions:

www.modot.org
www.ksdot.org

Those websites won't work til after the weather is here.  I think people are asking for road condition timelines.. Like if we head out at this time, will be beat it?  etc...