NBC Action Communities

Merry Christmas, G-Man.

At the present time, does the storm still look to conclude by Wednesday morning or will the snow continue thru the day?

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It looks like the sun will come out Wednesday afternoon.

Gary

Far enough south for me?? I missed the evening news. Drove the girls to LongView Farms for the lights. It was fun until my youngest threw up....:o). Too much info huh? LOLOL!!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

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Monica,

It is all very strange. But, it still needs to track a bit farther south to get you some snow. 

Gary

Some of my family is driving to North Dakota on Friday and Saturday. They are wondering if they should just stay here. Do you have any ideas on what the weather will be like?

Monica I hope your young one eels better soon.  

We still have some snow here in the Northland but new snow would be wonderul  Keeping my fingers crossed.

Hey Gary,

We got a heavy dusting of powdery snow here in Marceline. It was coming down pretty heavy at one time. It didnt last long though. I no there is a lot of extremely slick black ice here. I slid a few times, and when I was walking, I stepped on ice so slick you couldnt even stand still on it. That powdery snow we just got a little while ago just makes it even more slick.

Tomorrow looks interesting in the morning. I hope they dont freak out here and cancel school, because I have a couple more finals to take, and I dont want to take them in January.

So if it does get slick, I hope it is after 1:00 PM, but hopefully it wont.

Alex

I am so afraid to get excited about any snow at this point.  We've been down this road and I don't think my heart could stand even the slightest bit of "weather depression."  

I'm dreaming of a white Christmas:)

DL

awww Monica.. feel your pain.  Hope lil one gets feelin better soon.  Nothin worse than being sick on Christmas

Stacy

I was just going to comment on the NAM profile on the old blog, then noticed the last post time!!!
Agreed, the sat level is there, but no qpf output.  Weird, but not hard to believe, as the NAM is sometimes the most gun-shy as far as precip in winter.  You said that you saw a more southerly component; did not see that yet.  What I did see was the cursed dry slot making its presence known.  Still chewing on the latest model output; hopefully the GFS will clear up some things.
Later
BAClair

So.... either way, this is a small storm and even if it hits us perfect, it will only produce 2-4" max.     This is a tough forecast as the track of the storm is very critical to who gets snow and who gets a mix.  

I am sure nothing will be set in stone until the tomorrow afternoon/evening.

Good Luck, I will be watching at 10

Interesting and getting more difficult and clear at the same time.  That farther southerly track must be why NWS has an increased risk of severe thunderstorms for the boothill on the 2 day and 4 day outlook.  Whats your take on it Gary?  Might the boothill see some small hail and gusty winds to support the NWS forecast?  I'll be up in the morning to catch you on the radio for the latest to see where this thing is going to end up and how it might effect our shopping.  We are like you, just getting started.

2 to 4 FEET??  Yes call me crazy but I'm in the mood to be snowed in... completely for a day or two.

Lol.. Christmas anticipation MUST be gettin to me... cuz Santa's just GOTTA have snow

00Z GFS takes the low farther north. According to this run, most of the higher snow amounts would be confined to NC Missouri and SC Iowa.

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On the precipitation forecast, but it is where that vorticity maximum tracks that will decide what happens.  It may still track north.  Let's see how it looks on Tuesday.

Gary

Ok we have major snow on the west coast and east coast.  I think its about time for us here in the central part of the country.  I want snow!!!!!

I think this is a case of the Little Vort That Could...

hey gary,
was pleasantly surprised earlier, we got about .25" of snow here!

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I wasn't surprised. I expected it to eventually start reaching the ground.  I just wish it would have happened earlier.

Thanks for the report.

Gary

How about those GFS models!

I am the new snow guru!




December 21, 2008 1:45 PM  

KansasPatriot said:
My own snowflake contest for Christmas eve is 1-3 inches of snow if we are lucky.

********:

"KansasPatriot why do you have to be so negative about approaching storms?
GFS has been very consistent with more than that"

Snow! Snow! SNow! Snow Dance!

I am with Andrew

We Want Snow We Want Snow We Want Snow!!!!!!!!!!!!1

Has KC ever had a 2-3FT snowfall before? ever?

Well it has been awhile, but the biggest snowstorm in Kansas City history occurred March 22-24, 1912 when 25" fell!

last major snowstorm was in 2005 when 8.3" fell on December 7th-8th.

1   1912   March 22-24   25.0 Inches   20.5 Inches (23rd)

Yah, I just found that too! We are overdue for a "Big One"

yea that would be sweet!  I am from Montana and I have been missing the snow since I moved here about 7 years ago or so.  

Id like to see data on that storm, i bet its one of those perfect storms.... but they didnt have that kind of technology back then lol

and i remember that 2005 one, it stayed on the ground for a while :D

I've been in KC my whole life, and can't remember what big snows we've had if any. 18, born 1990 in Chicago, but moved before even one yr old to kc, so my dad could go to Calvary Bible College.

I'm hoping for cruddy weather tomorrow. The reason I am hoping for that is it seems like the furnace repair guys only seem to come on cruddy weather days and I want to get my dang furnace fixed! :-) Have a great Holiday season everyone and for our Jewish folks, Happy Hanukkah!

I am 41 years old and can remember when KC would get a snowstorm!   You could count on it every year and it was very cold too.   The extremes of heat and cold have lessened in the last few decades making KC one of the great places to live (This winter excluded).     I remember many years having drifts of 3ft or more and playing in it as a kid.   Where have those storms gone???  Oh yea, everywhere but here!   We are loooong overdue for a major snowstorm of 8-12".    

Your furnace is still out freak?   How did you survive?  

The powercast isnt looking very impressive for snow tomorrow night/wed. morning :( I just want a good snow for once! Im doin a snow dance with Andrew!

I just wanted a white Xmas!

Will you settle for 1"?

hey if it will stick around for xmas day that is better than nothin!  lets hope!

Too bad Kansas City is not at at 6,500 ft elevation where we are.  Then we would really get some snows!!

Joe,
I can remember my oldest niece getting a sled for Christmas in 1987.  It never snowed enough that winter for her to use it.  The last winter I can think of with a lot of snow was 1992-'93.  It started at Thanksgiving and didn't stop until March.  I remember big snows in the 1970s.  

Kristi

Why does Mother Nature hate us?

anyone catch the 5 am newscast?

i am really surprised to not see a snow/ice map of any kind yet-day of the event.  its really hard to be wrong in a forecast when you dont make one! no wonder your statistics look so good compared to the other stations...

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Pvt Murphy,

What?  Our forecast is for a wintery mix developing today.  And, 1 to 3 inches of snow possible tonight.  So, I have no idea what you are talking about.  I don't want to be defensive, just realistic.  I stand behing the fact that we make the boldest most aggressive forecasts of anyone, when they can be made.  We have 50s for Friday, and I have heard that other forecasts are for 30s Friday, at least as of yesterday.  I know those forecasts will be coming up.  So, I just don't know where your statement comes from. 

Gary

Gary:
Good breezy chilly morning to you sir!! Currently sitting at 30 degrees this morning with a very decent south wind blowing-the barbarians from the south are at the gates!!!! LOL
Well, another fascinating/interesting event to follow eh?? Ok, a few observations this morning that may be going out on a limb-I just hope the limb doesn’t break!!! LOL

1.South Winds-they are cranking pretty good this morning-what a return flow-I think that looking at this morning’s surface charts you can see a pretty deep surface low over east central Colorado and then there is the left over arctic high in South Carolina-no wonder the winds are pretty strong out of the south. We are right in the chute!!!!

2. Looking at radar this morning there are some patches of lite snow/drizzle that have developed just to the SW of Topeka into Emporia that are heading north east-they are lite right now, but it does appear the radar is filling in somewhat. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next few hours-I think (again think being the optimum word here as always!!) we will still be below freezing when some sort of precipitation falls from the sky this morning but it looks to be kind of a race for this morning between the precipitation and the warmer air.

3. Looking again at the surface charts, I think there is a front sitting up in Central Nebraska as there is for sure a wind shift line and there are still some lower teens and single digits up there. I am guessing that what we need today is that front to get through here as the main energy tracks through the area. Again, another race!!! LOL

4. Looking at the RUC soundings for the 9Z run we are fairly well saturated right now I think. The 9Z RUC has Topeka getting just to freezing by about 6:00 this evening-so I am guessing Lawrence probably gets above freezing by 4:00 or so this afternoon. The 0Z GFS had similar soundings on the 0Z run but it cooled off very quickly just as that energy is coming through.

5. Honestly and I am probably missing something, but I thought the 0Z GFS run was pretty good for this area. The models trended all day yesterday to have the vort/max dig a bit further south and on the 0Z the whole column was below freezing with close to .35 QPF over the area. Nothing earth shattering but I think taking that model verbatim the whole area could see 2 inches plus from that run. It is not the big boy but I’ll take 2 inches of fresh snow 24 hours before Christmas morning!!

6. Another crazy day to follow and see what happens. Will be interesting to see how the 12Z (I really don’t look at the 6z runs-I am wrong about this I am sure, but I just don’t trust them) handles everything and then it is time to watch radar and soundings. This is for sure another now cast storm/event so here we go!!!!

7. Man that long wave trough east of here has just delivered the goods so far this year and even this little event here is going to expand once it hits that. Sometime this winter our little long wave trough over Oklahoma will do its thing and we will get a wrapped up storm-I really feel this will happen-just too much cold air and energy in this winter’s pattern.

Well, I hope the limb hasn’t broken yet!!! LOL It will be fun to watch this today and just see what happens. If I could squeeze and inch or two by tomorrow morning I will be ecstatic-that would give me 5-6 inches of snow for December and some very brutally cold air-a very good December for a winter lover in Lawrence Kansas in any decade!!!

Have a great day and as always thanks for reading!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

Another thing to notice is the Saturday storm.  The latest GFS and ECMWF models have a southern extension that could bring us a lot of excitement.  We will begin concentrating on that soon.  Today is a very tough forecast.  Radar echoes are increasing right now and we should know a lot more soon.  Tonight, we just need the wave to be a bit stronger and take the NAM track.  We would get the 1 to 3 inches if it has any organization at all.

Gary

Why do we keep getting strong winds with over 35 MPH gusts every three to four days. If tis is the way winter is going to be, I'm not going to get very much sleep!

Seems like the winds are unusually strong this fall and winter. Has anyone else noticed this???

So are we supposed to be dry today and then tonight we might get 1-3" overnight?

I remember the '05 storm... I was at St. Luke's on the plaza fo rmy dad's heart surgery.  Got there early in the morning and it was snowing but not much on the ground... left that evening and had to get back home to Spring Hill... took forever.  But I would love another good 8-10 inch snow storm.  As long as it falls on a friday night... so I dont have to venture out for a couple days.