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Thanks Gary..

I am curious if we will see any accumulations today or if its mainly going to be overnight.  Also, do you still show it as 1-3"?

Thanks!

Windy no doubt Gary, gusting to 32.3 ere in McLouth, but its warm 27.9.  Are you rubbing your snow globe this morning trying to get us some weather?  Every winter my wife gets a big kick out of watching you beg for snow.  I don't know who gets excited more about it her or you.  I could live without the snow myself.

Why is ther so much thunder this morning, trust me it isn't wind?

Hmm, doesn't sound very hopeful for snow...  Bummer

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Don't get too bummed out yet. It is late tonight when the chance moves across.

Gary

Long time lurker, decided to join this morning.  I really like the fact that there are so many people who love the different seasons.  I'm a huge fan of summertime and hot weather, so I've been hibernating through all the weather we've had lately.

Question for Gary...my mother will never forgive me, if I don't show up in southeastern Texas Christmas Eve night.  I'm driving, and had planned to leave early on Wednesday morning.  What are my chances of driving south out of this storm and doing it, in a safe manner?  I'm curious to see your opinion of the timing of the snow.

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First of all welcome, you are now an NBC Action Weather Blogger.  The most it is likely going to snow is 1 to 3 inches out of this fast moving system.  So, let's say 3 inches falls.  There could be a lot of travel problems, but you would be able to get south of Kansas City, and as soon as you get 100 miles south it will be dry the rest of the way.  And, we may end up with less than an inch. So, I would plan on taking it slow until you get out of the snow.

Happy Holidays!

Gary

Well not sure what it wa, either freezing rain or sleet but we just had something come down for just a couple of minutes.  By the time I got outside it was over, kind of looks like it was a little of both.  Little pellets of ice everywhere.

Well not sure what it was, either freezing rain or sleet but we just had something come down for just a couple of minutes here in McLouth.  By the time I got outside it was over, kind of looks like it was a little of both.  Little pellets of ice everywhere.

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Thanks!  It is likely the precipitation type we will see this morning.  An organizing area is trying to get its act together to our southwest.

Gary

So lets start cheering for this to come together to dump serious snow!  Is this even the type of storm that "could" develop into a good snow storm?

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This is a great question. Not really. This is the type of storm that if it really got its act together could produce 3 to 4 inches of snow at the most.  And, it would have to take a perfect track for where you live.  Most likely it is a 1 to 2 inch snowstorm along and north of that X I talked about yesterday.  Where will it track?  I will talk about the latest data around 8:30 this morning.

Gary

Gary said;

"Look at the 850 mb map at 6 AM this morning.  As this storm approaches it has produced a powerful low level jet.  60 to 80 mph winds are blowing at 5,000 feet up"

Here comes the difficult forecast with a headache, a fast mover it will be.  Do we now see 1" or less for "most" of the viewing area?

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I still think a band of 1 to 3 inches will fall somewhere in the viewing area.  But, the exact location is still in question.

Gary

Wow what a tricky day! What kind of time frame are we looking at for tonight? After midnight? Or before?
Seems like the same old story.... "models have it going north" And as Andrew would say "it's trending south" I think that has been the story for the last few storms. Well i am so glad that it is not snowing on Christmas Eve or Christmas day. I can live with the snow tonight. I will be tired on Wednesday but at least I will be able to be with my family.
How is Saturday looking.

Merry Christmas to all and to all a white night!

LOL

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Saturday is trending better for a storm.  The timing on tonights snow is 3 to 8 AM.  This is how I see it right now.

Gary

Just went through some freezing drizzle between downtown and Crown Center.

Thanks Gary!

Rain on I-35 in Olathe and Lenexa.  Doesn't seem to be freezing on contact.

Lots of snowflakes, tiny ones! They're smaller than glitter!

Good morning, Gary.  I just heard what sounded like sleet or freezing rain here in Lenexa.  It sure is windy!  Have a great day.

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Thank you for the report. And, I would like to thank everyone as this strange morning unfolds.  Keep letting us know what you are experiencing.

Gary

Good morning Gary- quick question- where is the "vort max" located this morning- has it developed yet?

JP

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Another great question from you bloggers.  JP, the vort max is still forming and evolving.  It may be located over Nevada right now. Can you see how complex this really is?  New data soon.

Gary

Good morning again Gary!!

We have a rain shower/ice pellet shower currently in SW Lawrence. It is freezing on contact at the moment unlike last Thursday.

Bill in Lawrence

Dang it, I didn't make it out in time!
Something falling here near Liberty...I can see wet drops on the window and hear it lightly hit the windows.  Hopefully it wont effect my driving...but better go!

Sleet and freezing rain up near KCI airport between 7:15am and 7:30am.  Iced up the windows on the south side of our house.  Temperature currently at 30 degrees.

Keith

Experienced drizzle on my way in to work today from shawnee to the plaza.

 Emmysmom said:
Dang it, I didn't make it out in time!
Something falling here near Liberty...I can see wet drops on the window and hear it lightly hit the windows.  Hopefully it wont effect my driving...but better go!


I went out to get the paper and I'm not sure exactly what's falling here.  I'm in the Shoal Creek/Liberty area.  It's very fine, but not drizzle or rain.  I'm thinking sleet or ice pellets.  Were at 31f with 53% humidity.

Sprinkling, so far nothing freezing here at work (Front St & Choteau)

Thanks for the info Gary.  100 miles isn't so bad, when I'm looking at about 700 for the drive down.  Only problem now...I planned to come home on Saturday, sigh.  Timing is everything, huh?

169 Hwy and North Oak Trafficway has small ice pellets coming down.

Freezing rain and small ice pellets here in northwest Olathe.  Temperature is 23.5 °F and the rain appears to be freezing on contact.

Sprinkling began about 7:50 AM here in Olathe near I-35 and Santa Fe (135th St.).

Getting the same mystery frozen precip here NE of Lawson.  Still have ice covered snow on the ground.

Gary or anyone...is there a way to save a location on the new interactive map, or do you have to zoom in to "your location" every time?  Thanks in advance.

Good rain shower just moved through Eudora about five minutes ago, with a little bit of sleet mixed it that melted on contact. Not sure if the rain is freezing to anything out there. The wind is really blowing from the south still. Looks to me like the GFS is still pretty much on the same track as last night, with showing pretty much I70 and northward as the heaviest precip. area. Hopefully this storm with take a turn a little bit further south like the first two snows we had and give KC a nice 2 to 3 inches.

So if we get snow with these strong winds won't we have blizzard conditions?

Just checking back in.  Went outside and whatever the precip is that's falling is freezing on contact here in Lenexa.  The cars both have frozen rain and some sort of ice pellets on them.

Light drizzle just started at JCCC...It feels positively balmy right now standing out on the dock compared to how it felt 24 hours ago...Still doing my(subdued) snow dance, my co-workers already think I'm crazy during spring and winter...and they're right! I'm normally very laid back and reserved otherwise! :)

Where are you seeing models trending "towards a storm" on Saturday? I'm not really seeing that in the GFS and NAM...or rather, I am seeing a storm on those models, but it's effects are mainly east of KC.

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Look at the 06z GFS, the 00z ECMWF, and UKMET.  Yes, the 06z GFS appears to have it just east of us, but make a slight adjustment or make that a closing off upper low and watch out!  And RDUB, it is just a feeling I have about this storm, but I think it could be rather significant very close to us.  Now, it is only Tuesday, so I will give it another day to see if this keeps trending towards a big storm.

Gary

8:26, strong gusting winds, rather medium sized rain droplets and hovering right at the freezing mark here in Spring Hill.  I don't see it freezing on any surfaces around the house.

We'll be monitoring throughout the day.

Last night we had a "purty good dustin' in Trenton.  Enough to cover the roads.  This morning we have seen some sprinkles, but it feels like it is much warmer than we've seen the past few days.

I am sitting at 31 degrees right now.....dry of course!! :o(   It is windy.....we seem to be getting a lot of that this year. Still hoping this storm sets up differently to give me at least a little bit of white stuff. Have a great day.
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

06z GFS looks like a lot more precip for the I-44 corridor with not much for us...of course, this far out, that could shift.

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Yes, but that is modelitis talking RDUB!  Just imagine a more closed off low.  It has been a struggle to get this to happen for us, so we'll see.

Gary

RDub, I think, and correct me if I'm wrong Gary, the trend in the data for Saturday's storm is for it to develop further and further to the west as compared to what it showed yesterday day/last night. So if that trend continues in the model runs, then it is trending towards a storm developing near us on Saturday. Whether or not the models continue that trend and where the storm actually develops is still up in the air at this point. Keep in mind that every model run has a significant margin of error past 24 hours, with that margin increasing the longer out that model run is.

Please some one tell me that the snow is going to miss us tonight! Please.

GO NORTH, GO NORTH!! : )  Or if someone could just get this snow delayed to tomorrow evening around 5:00, I'd be fine with that...I just need to be able to get to work tomorrow!!

Driving in from north to downtown, there was some occassional rain, but other than the wind that was it.  

From everything I'm hearing from multiple sources, it doesn't sound like anyone expects any real travel problems around the metro today, as far as really slick roads...just the possibility of one or two slick spots on some untreated roads, etc.  Is that also your feeling, Gary?

How did it warm up so much last night?  When I went to bed last night there wasn't really any warm air to our south......it is in the mid 30's in Dallax and Low 30s in OK and Arkansas

Don't get me wrong I dont want to see any icing potential, but I am just trying to figure out how it warmed up so much this morning.  

My husband is driving north on 291 between 150 and 50 highways towards Lee's Summit.  He called to tell me it's sleeting heavily and that most cars and trucks are stopped because they can't get up the hills due to ice.  He said it's like glass on the roadway.  

Roads getting bad up here north of Liberty.  Just heard on the scanner that there is a bad accident southbound 35 at the 32mile marker near Holt exit.  

LOL Maybe it is modelitis. But on the other hand, a major storm developing just east of us, giving I-44 lots of snow but us not much....that's a pretty easy scenario to imagine....

Weather team, I don't envy your task of figuring this one out...  Driving from Lawson to Excelsior Springs I experienced rain that was freezing to the windshield on contact.  From Excelsior Springs to Mosby it changed to great big snowflakes mixed with some sleet.  Then from Mosby into Liberty it went back to freezing rain, although very light.  The kids are pleading for enough snow to go sledding.  Me, I'm hoping for sunny and 72!

South KC from 89th to Plaza, very light rain, no freezing yet, one of my co workers said that he comes in from the north and I-29 by airport was slick and cars were sliding around, be safe and just think SNOW.

heavysnow,the warm air is moving in aloft, not along the surface. that's why it is not showing up in surface obs to our south. because of the strong winds, this warm air is readily mixing down to the surface.

I can backup orgirl69. I was on the same stretch of road as her husband a few minutes ago and it is a sheet of ice on 291 S. and 150 Hwy. The subdivision roads in Greenwood are iced over as well. It all happened within 15 minutes after the rain shower went through.

I turned around and went back home. My 4WD doesn't have any advantage on ice except climbing hills.

Are we expecting temps to warm up any?  I'm not liking the sound of the way things are going just north of here!

Was just told by a buddy that works for the city of lee's summit. They have had 17 reported accidents due to icy roads since 8:30. This was about 20 minutes ago.

GFS is at the 24 hr and in the 12hr and 24hr shows kc in the darkgreen.

Long time reader, first time poster!  We read the blog daily, and just couldn't resist posting with this crazy weather pattern!  Just got a call from Bucyrus...roads are getting slick to the south!  Currently at 143rd & Metcalf, and not much going on except the wind.

I am here in Phoenix.....enjoying the warm weather...but missing the possiblity of snow tonight in KC....well It probably would have been my first white Christmas in Missouri if I was there..lol

enjoy the cold and snow!

Brent

12Z GFS is updated to past tomorrow.  Does show a "slight" southerly shift, and is nice with its qpf output.  DO not take that as a sure thing, because GFS has tendancy to overdo it on the rain.  But, a continual shift in the pattern does bode well for some in MO.  
Disclaimer:  Modelitis tends to set in 24 hrs before any major event, thus creating a bias towards a single solution.  Advice from those suffering modelitis should be taken with the understanding that the advice is probably WRONG!!!
Later

Yes, absolutely everything outside is iced covered now in Lee's Summit. Saw several cars off the road on 50 Hwy coming in to work around 9:30..
City streets are so slick if you just tap your brakes, your tires start to spin.
Be careful. It looks like it can only go down hill from here today.

Good Morning Bloggers.... I am hoping some of you can help me out.  I've seen a few write in about the Lee Summit area. I'm suppose to be driving my Grandmother down to St. Lukes in Lee Summit, but its sounding like 291 and areas around is bad.  I've heard there are slick spots around KCI, can anyone tell me how are the roads from KCI to Lee Summit area.  Its not doing anything currently up north here in St. Joe, but wondering how bad it is down south. I don't want to start the drive and hit bad roads.  Thanks!

is it suppose to get warmer out today? will the roads get better if that happens? I havent been out but have a lot of stuff that needs to be done. Dont want to be driving in bad weather I guess I thought we had missed the bad stuff but sounds like it might be not good outside. **** The air air temp could get to 35 or 36 but the street temps are a lot colder than that due the recent arctic air, so its probably going to be slick all day.  Brett

when I left for work this morning from home (49th & Raytown Rd) my Jeep was completely glazed over with a very thin layer of ice.  Travel was fine coming up Blue Ridge Blvd & 63rd Street heading towards Troost.  My son went over to Olathe to deliver a couple of cheesecake orders, said it was ok over there so far.  Everyone be careful!

Gary,

Does that Saturday storm look like our big storm? Crossing my fingers that we get up to 25" o snow this year in one day!! Like the 1912 storm !


Still doing the snow dance!! We are long overdue!

I am with Emmysmom. I have to get my daughter to the airport so she can fly to Phx and spend Christmas with her grandparents. Then I work Wed and Thursday. So it would be great if anything major would hold off for awhile.

Planning on heading North for the holiday.  Up I-35 to Minnesota (Minneapolis area).  Last time I did, I ran into ice on the north side of Des Moines and almost slide into South bound traffic.  It was dark and I did not realize that the little bit of mist was collecting on the highway.  Then hit Mn with ice and snow all the way to  Minneapolis.  If we leave Friday, how are we looking for safe travel up I-35?  

I am looking for any one that can give me more info on snow tonight. Possible time and amounts. If you can help that would be great. I hope that it goes north. please. *** Light rain or sleet should turn over to all snow by 3am and continue until about 8am...with 2-3 inches possible if not more in some spots.  Then blowing snow tomorrow and colder temps.  Brett

First time poster...Just drove to work in Raymore.  The roads out here are very slick.  Several cars turned over or off in ditches.  Slow down and drive careful.

So if the vort is near Paola, does that mean that snow will occur south of Paola?

Looks like the NWS has issued a WWA for the metro for light icing and sleet. Plus there is more precip heading this way right now especially on the south side of the metro. May not get a whole lot of snow out of this storm, but this ice is starting to really suck.  ***Still a chance for snow tonight.  Brett

jstonemo, if you dont have anything nice to say, don't say anything : )  
I dont like that news at all...and on top of Brett saying that the ground is staying cold and it will be slick all day....yuck.  Maybe I'll just spend the night at work tonight.  Wish I would have brought extra clothes : )

shouldnt it be rain not ice with the next round since it should be above freezing ***Might not be, the road surface temperatures are colder than the air temp.

Well school is getting out at 11:00 here in Marceline.

Alex

Gary:

Good mid morning to you sir!! Hope your morning is going well-you and Brett sure have a busy day a head of you!! Another nail biter on the way!!

A couple more random thoughts as I try to clean up the house and play tickle monster/nerf dart gun with a couple of very pre-Christmas excited boys!!! LOL

1. Lawrence dodged a nerf bullet this morning-not a real bullet, but a nerf one-if we had had a little bit better organized batch of precip here this morning the roads may have become a bit tricky-nothing real bad but for sure a bit tricky as what did fall froze instantly on the drive and side walks.

2. The 12Z GFS in my very humble and uneducated opinion has come in further south and a bit stronger for tonight. It looks like the main vort taking this model verbatim is going to track from about Fort Scott up through Nevada, Missouri and then chug along North East from there. The NAM is not quite as strong but appears to also have a similar path and has a more solid path of qpf in the area. These solutions may very well be off the mark (as may be the interpretation of them LOL) but at least we have the continuation of a bit more southerly track. Whatever the case, I really think it is now casting time and the main model to look at now is the RUC. Time to follow radar trends, soundings, surface maps and satelite and just see what Mother Nature decides to give us. Will be fun to track for sure!!!!

3. Regarding Saturday but not to get ahead of myself!!! I think it will be interesting to see what this looks like on Thursday/Friday. Looking at this from a historical perspective, these types of scenarios can produce a decent storm for this area: a front comes through and stalls around Columbia back into Oklahoma and then a decent piece of energy rides up the front and intensifies and produces some decent precipitation. Recently, this is the scenario that gave Lawrence the thunder show last December. Looking at it from the LRC perspective maybe this will be the time that the smaller long wave trough in Oklahoma may show its hand and help intensify a storm to our SW. This seems kind of similar to what occured around the 13th of November. Of course, the front may blow through and the second energy doesn't get its act together until it hits that dominant long wave trough to our east or the second piece of energy doesn't develop at all. There will be so many looks to this Saturday event over the next two days it will make your head spin but I think looking at the possibilities both climotology wise and LRC wise, the possibility is for sure there. Does this even make any sense??? LOL

Just some observations-back to tickle monster and a 9 year old taking over the computer!!! LOL Have a great day-the next 24 hours are going to be fun to track and see what happens-if Lawrence can squeeze out 2 inches I will be ecstatic-it will give me snow on Christmas and give Lawrence an above average snow month-add that to the cold and this has been a great December!!! Yea-I keep my expectations low-living here for 4 decades and having so many busts through the 70's, 80's, 90's and this decade has taught me that!!!!

Take care everybody and have a great day!!!

Bill in Lawrence

okay i just watched the 10 olcock update and Brett said it should by this afternoon just be liquid. So I will just be waiting till the weather warms up to run some errands. ***yes but the road temps are still going to be right around freezing or below so watch out, it could still be icy  Brett

Ouch! It has been dry all morning here on the north side of Ottawa, but a few minutes ago I just barely felt something coming down and now, around 10:25, we have light freezing rain. I almost took a fall on my driveway, so I can guess that the roads are also icing up. You were right, Gary/Brett, when you said that just a few minutes of this stuff can be bad  news... SO, now when I was getting ready to leave for church, I find myself going nowhere! Of course, had I been logged in this morning, I would have known this stuff was hitting in the area - my mistake! Is it going to warm up after lunch? Will this glaze of ice/black ice melt this afternoon? Hope so!
Take care, everyone - GO SLOW!!  ***Yes, the air temperature should get above freezing but the road surfaces may not.  Brett

radar looks impressive for areas south of I-7O and east of I-35 for some form of precip now and continuning.  It is moving ENE so it will not make it up here. . . hope it is more sleet and snow for you guys. . . we missed this one up north. . . . But its 32 degrees a heat wave!

I know y'all get upset when we get upset about y'all doing the snow dance and so on, but those of us that are forced to travel and can't call in sick or stop what they have to do, ya know it doesn't make us feel too good when we see folks hoping for bad weather. Please just keep in mind that weather blog or not, some of us come to get updates so we can prepare for the have to travel blues. You can get all excited and dance all you want but have some respect for the ones of us that are worried about driving in this ice and heavy snow and risking our lives ok? Not all of us have situations where we can take a day off and set home in front of a fire.

DUH! BreTT, I meant (sorry!).

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON.

A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION TODAY. POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING. THERE MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE SLEET MIXED IN
AT TIMES. THROUGH 11 AM...A HEAVIER BAND OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL
BE SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KANSAS CITY
METRO AREA AND AREAS SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY. WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK THIS MAY PRODUCE A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE ON ROADS AND
BRIDGES.

ADDITIONAL BANDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE OCCURRING THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE KANSAS CITY
METRO AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING...AND THESE ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
METRO AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.
BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE
CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

I keep hearing about this current LRC being amazing an exciting.  For some areas to the west and east that is true.  However, when storms come through this region they just seem to be very disorganized and not producing much - is this going to be our fate for this winter season?

Thanks

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I wouldn't say anyone is saying this is "amazing and exciting".  Add in one more word...."frustrating".  It is amazing, exciting, and frustrating.  But, hold on as we are on this ride of weather. 

Gary

Gary started a new blog

At about 9 I tried to go from Grain Valley to Independence on Buckner/Tarsney and turned around and came home, was sliding around.
First time blogger here. :-)