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Evening update on snow potential

Good evening bloggers,

There is one shopping day left before Christmas.  As we expected tonight has remained above freezing so anyone out shopping tonight will be able to get home safely without any ice developing. The cold front will move through Kansas City just after midnight and temperatures could drop to 18 degrees by 6 AM.  Wow!  Will we see any snow?  The latest data is coming out and I will blog about this later on.  It isn't as impressive as the earlier runs, and no surprise as I can't even find the upper level storm on the watervapor loop.  This is very important and I will be talking about this on NBC Action News at 10 PM.  Right now I have an idea of what is happening with the snow potential, but let me think about it for a while.  I am leaning towards a snow pattern similar to our first snow on December 9th.

Have a great evening.  And, I will try to update the blog soon.

Gary

Published Tuesday, December 23, 2008 8:06 PM by glezak

Comments

 

bewild79 said:

I dont think these storms like us.....  =(
December 23, 2008 8:21 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

well the fronts through falls city NE, its getting close...
December 23, 2008 8:22 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

Is the LRC weather chat room open?
December 23, 2008 8:27 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

im not seeing much yet either gary, although there appears to be a vort in south eastern colorado...thats not what we need, but there is definitely energy there.  on the IR Sat. loop i noticed a northeasterly component to the movement of the air in north central NM, although there isnt much associated with it.  were going to have to saturate that dry air pocket over the OK panhandle.  i guess the cold air rushing down the MTNs are compressing the air slightly.  not looking to impressive yet, but, its early...and we have had snows explode over west and central ks so far this year...
December 23, 2008 8:32 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

Is next weeks warm up starting on Monday the cause of a break inbetween cycles that may cause milder and warmer weather for a bit?
December 23, 2008 8:32 PM
 

Emmysmom said:

By a pattern like Dec. 9th do you mean the path that you are thinking it might take, or everything about it?  It is still supposed to end early morning right?
December 23, 2008 8:36 PM
 

A dogg said:

Oh well, I guess there is always next time:(
December 23, 2008 8:37 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

In the LRC chat if anyone wants to join!
December 23, 2008 8:39 PM
 

hippygoth said:

The upper level storm is there Gary, it's just playing hard to find... :)

Just like Santa, you think he isn't going to come, then out of nowhere, there's gifts everywhere! In our case it's an upper level storm and a couple of inches of snow, just in time to hang around for Christmas Day. :)

H.

December 23, 2008 8:41 PM
 

Tabitha said:

At 6pm, Gary said next to nothing for the Garnett/Iola area.  But the NWS website has us at 1-2 in by 9am.  Gary, will you please mention our area again at 10pm and update if there are any changes to the forcast?  Thanks.
December 23, 2008 8:42 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

I didn't really ever expect this one to be an event. I was lazy and dubbed this a non event, didn't even try to make my own forecast because I knew Kansas City proper was going to get at worst a dusting to 1".

I think our real chance of seeing more than an inch of snow is Friday evening - but if the warm air holds on longer and the storm fails to cut off, we may get skipped by that one as well.

At least up here north of the river we still have an inch or so snowpack from the last snow storm - so it's going to be a white Christmas anyhow!
December 23, 2008 8:50 PM
 

jules7373 said:

Kristi -

Not sure if you're still on here. I've been off for awhile. I've been chasing for the last 2 years, my friend has been chasing for 5 or 6, my fiance' has only been on 2 chases with us but loves it whe he can get away from work.

Julie
December 23, 2008 8:54 PM
 

stormlover said:

I just hope it snows a little bit so my parents from South Carolina can see snow.  Last Christmas when they were here was the last time they have seen snow.  What a shame.  At least, no matter how little, we get snow.  Merry Christmas everyone & stay safe in whatever precip. falls.
December 23, 2008 8:56 PM
 

kellyann said:

My my, I leave town last week thinking we are going to get a good snowstorm, even tho I heard elsewhere it would not be a big snow, and now I get home and see how many times the forcast on snow amounts have changed on here and that we are now going to get not much and I am just laughing, lol..I feel sorry for the people who had high hopes of getting a big snow from what they read last week and now it comes to this...ya should have known. Personally, I think it's more fun to see how many different forcasts are mentioned  and change over a weeks time on nbc, it really is a roller coaster ride like KC's crazy weather...I don't think we are in the right place again this year for a big snow, at least I hope we are not, so I am liking this forcast for tomorrow, people will be a lot safer :) Thanks nbc weather team for making my night!!
December 23, 2008 8:56 PM
 

stjoelawyer said:

wait and see it will be below 2o degrees so not alot of moisture needed to make an inch of snow
December 23, 2008 8:59 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Hi Julie,
I am around..  Doing some cleaning and going to go watch the KU - Arizona game at 9:30.  It is great that you have been chasing for awhile.  Have you seen a lot of tornadoes on your chases?

Kristi  
December 23, 2008 9:09 PM
 

Ronnie said:

NWS doubled their snow total for Overland Park.  They say 3".  Gary, you really see less?
December 23, 2008 9:27 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

i still think things are going to come together for a decent snow, its just slow to materialize-and the cold front is moving very slowly.
December 23, 2008 9:30 PM
 

bewild79 said:

If the front is moving slow would that give us more snow than originally thought?
December 23, 2008 9:35 PM
 

juba said:

I feel AWFUL, I have the flu. Its been only working at inght though.
December 23, 2008 9:37 PM
 

mattmaisch said:

00Z very very discouraging for snow in and around the metro area.  Clearly the least promising solution out of the GFS in the last few days.  If you believe this model, nobody in the city will see more than an inch of snow.  Too bad for those of us hoping for a storm and a white Christmas..

Matt
December 23, 2008 9:45 PM
 

stjoelawyer said:

LIKE A SPRING ROSE IT WILL BLOSSOM OVER US.................
December 23, 2008 9:46 PM
 

Fire Dog said:

YOU CAN'T GO JUST BY THE MODELS...  Just look out to the west.
December 23, 2008 9:50 PM
 

shoedog said:

Intesting divergence.  A few sites , NWS, Accuweather are starting to add a little heavier snow for the area (solid 3 inches), Gary is pulling away and it looks like a couple models are pulling away.  Interesting to see how Mother Nature plays out.
December 23, 2008 9:54 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

Yeah for YOU stjoe..not for KC folks.


Its the season of modelitis and everyone has it!!!
December 23, 2008 9:57 PM
 

MOfishmgr said:

I guess we can revise the old saying, "If you don't like Missouri weather, wait 15 minutes" to "If you don't like the forecast, wait 15 minutes".  Stormlover was hoping for a big snow for more than her folks, She was hoping it would be enough for me to close the office tomorrow!
December 23, 2008 10:04 PM
 

Ipushsnow said:

I just want to know  if it will keep me away from the inlaws.
We need at least 2" in the Liberty/Gladstone aera to at least make me late.
December 23, 2008 10:05 PM
 

MikeandJenn said:

This is one time I hope Gary is wrong.  The other "get your helmet" channel is saying about 3-4 inches for Lee's Summit area.  The NWS says in their latest update:

"The snow will be heavy at times late tonight through daybreak...with at least 3 inches of snow possible by morning. Some locations may see heavier bands of snow set up...which may result in 4 or 5 inches of snow occurring."

However, all of that said, Gary isn't the Weather God for nothing.  If he is backing off, then there is a reason!

Mike and Jenn in Lee's Summit
December 23, 2008 10:07 PM
 

jules7373 said:

Kristi-

Seen 4 definates, many possibles, and lots of funnel clouds, etc. in my 2 years.
December 23, 2008 10:08 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

Yep knew it... bust.
December 23, 2008 10:21 PM
 

Dwxtracker said:

Looks like the front is about to make it through Topeka, pretty sure I can see it on the Topeka radar.
December 23, 2008 10:29 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

Oh please! Gary be wrong, oh well who nowsk what will happen!
December 23, 2008 10:31 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

Gary,

Do you have a legend on that redish color table you are using on ESP?
December 23, 2008 10:36 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Hi Julie,
Awesome :)  

Kristi
December 23, 2008 11:17 PM
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