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Where did 3 inches fall?
Bummer event again!
1-4 flakes maybe, the LRC is right on with the temps, but snowfall is lacking.
Too much anticipation for these let downs.................................

Not to late for a revised LRC  ???????????????????????????

of course not.

L R C


Left as you approach Kansas City
Right through northern Mo.
C hit Chicago.

Now that is the storm track, we just needed to think like a storm!

yea, its way to frustrating to have it look like 3 inches is a lock and end up with 1/2 inch. I think snowfall predictions should be banned.Just say there is a chance of snow and see what happens.

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Forecasting snow amounts is just as hard as forecasting rain amounts.  On this forecast I had thought all along it would be amazing if we got 2 inches out of this storm, and it is going to fall short of that in many spots.  Only late yesterday afternoon did it appear that we could have more, but as I said on the air I couldn't find the upper level storm.  Something was not quite right the entire time and the lower end of the forecast was the correct one.

Everyones expectations got lifted, just to be disappointed this morning. At least it snowed and everything is white.

Gary

I think we will see alot more snow before winter is over...

I am thinking that way too. Too much science can be bad thing for your health as well. Like Christmas, we know it is coming, but we don't know what we are getting. Forecast the "chance" of snow, but leave the number crunching out of it. Gee next week we get Springtime and the birds singing. With no snow to really speak of we can even get the mower out again. Sure hope January and Feb. the snow guns are fired up or this will be a bust for sure.

I'm happy with the forecast =), slight dusting on the ground and it is going to melt today, that's great with me!  Bring on those warm temperatures and dry air, I'm dreaming of a brown Christmas, yahooooooooo!  Headed out for a slippery walk with Windy, hoping to have better mornings for our walk in the near future.  Merry Christmas Gary, Stormy and Breezy!

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Deb and Windy,

Merry Christmas to you too!  Now, none of this brown Christmas stuff.

Gary

Well Gary I said yesterday morning at this time that we would get 1" to 1 1?2".  Here in McLouth we got roughly 1.5".  The snow lovers will just have to be patient.  Last half of January/early February always puts out the best chances of 3"+ snows anyhow.

In last night's blog I doubted the great one, Gary.  I noticed the Helmet forecaster and the NWS was calling for quite a bit more.  I knew Gary would be right, but I had hoped he would be wrong.

As usual, Gary was dead on in his forecast!

Merry Christmas to my fellow bloggers and to all of the weather team at NBC Action News!

Mike and Jenn in Lee's Summit

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Mike and Jenn,

Thank you so much.  Last night at 6 PM I showed what the computer was indicating with some higher amounts, but I clearly stated that I just didn't see it yet.  And, at 10 PM I stressed the one inch.  So, thanks for noticing.  Now, if we can just have a storm we can actually get the higher amounts it would be nice.  There has to be one this season where it all comes together.

Gary

Looked out the window this morning. The ground is white (well mostly)! You can still see the grass through the snow, so you know that we did not get all that much snow, but it is whiter then it was yesterday afternoon!!

SimplyKristi,
To answer your question from the last blog. Yes, I have ridden Amtrak. I rode it back in California. There was one model railroad show our club used to ride the rails to and from. It was a blast having a bunch of train geeks all together on a full sized train.

Gary, any idea approx. when we should expect our next Arctic cold front? When it is the coldest is when my stupid furnace seems to act up and I wanted to be prepared for it.

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I am analyzing the pattern right now.  We will be ready to make some longer range forecasts very soon.

Gary

Gary:
Good Winter’s morning to you sir!!! Currently sitting at 19 with some flurries still falling-it is just beautiful out this morning!! Snow crunching under your shoes-a few rabbits darting in front of your bike as it slides around in the snow-just awesome!!! Looks like a Charles Dickens Christmas Eve day out there this morning!! (Isn’t it amazing how a guy writing a book during a solar minimum can forever change the perception of what a holiday should be weather wise!!!)

I have between ½ inch to an inch here in SW Lawrence-the grass is not totally covered but enough that we should have snow on the ground for Christmas day. The most important factor for two little boys is that the igloo and the fort have indeed survived two assaults from the barbarians from the south and when they to get to my house tomorrow morning the igloo and fort will both still be standing!!! LOL

I did something totally different last night-I returned from a school event checked where the front was and the radar and then decided to just let it happen and see what we have when I get up in the morning-kind of like setting at trot line for channel cat-well, the line was shaking this morning-I may not have had the 10 plus pound channel cat but I had some smaller ones and as always, seeing that line shake as you get close to it is just awesome-so it is with this little bit of snow this morning-snow is snow is snow and I will take whatever Mother Nature decides to give!!

I find it so interesting how this “storm” really blossomed and got more organized once it hit that long wave trough to our east-man that puppy has just produced this year!!! I was hoping that the secondary trough in western Oklahoma may help this catch some fire this time but it was not to be. Sometime this winter that secondary long wave is going to show itself and when it does watch out Kansas City!!!!

Looking a bit ahead to Friday/Saturday: In my very humble opinion (very humble and uneducated!!) the potential is still there for something. Historically we have been smacked pretty good by secondary lows forming on the southern end of strong cold fronts and have seen it as recently as last December here in Lawrence and also in December of 2003. More importantly I think the LRC also lends credence to the possibility-if some southern energy can get into that secondary long wave trough and that trough can do its thing, we could have a pretty vigorous short wave riding up a front that most likely will be stalled from say Columbia back into Oklahoma. The models-no matter which one you look at Euro, GFS, UKMET, Canadian et al are going to have so many different looks at this over the next 48 hours that following each run I swear will age you by 100 years and they may not really hone in on a solution until Friday morning. Of course all of this could be stuff and nonsense and it probably is and furthermore, that dominant long wave trough will most likely be the main player and if any southern energy does indeed develop it probably won’t get its act together until it hits that. Nevertheless, I will hold out hope until the last cloud has cleared the area on Saturday!!! LOL

Finally, I find it so interesting that on the water vapor imagery yesterday you can see the changes that the LRC has forecasted much in advance. That ridge in the Gulf of Alaska is now retrograding back into the main land and thus we are transitioning back into the “quieter period”. Reading weather forums around the country you hear so much talk about how the MJO is passing into region 7 thus bringing on the negative NAO and the trough in the east etc etc. Well, the LRC picked this out in November!! Amazing!! I do think  the “quieter period” will hold some fun as man Canada is still really cold-when we hit that NW flow maybe we get a shortwave to dig further west than we did in November and get something. Whatever the case, I am already looking forward to watching for that ridge to retrograde back into the Gulf of Alaska-I am guessing that within the next week or two the models should start showing it and by the middle to the end of January we will see the signals for the active period in real time!!

Oops-I have done it again-said way too much-sorry!!! Have a great day and as always thanks for reading and providing such a great place to learn about the weather and discuss the weather (and on the LRC website!!!) you guys ROCK!!!! I hope you get some sleep Gary and Brett you for sure deserve it and that you get to enjoy the snow today!!! Happy Christmas Eve everybody!!  Time to go play in the snow!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

Thanks for the words of wisdom this morning.  I think I aged 100 years yesterday.  Looking ahead to Saturday it has the look of a storm that could close off an upper low on the southern extension, but this season we have yet to have an upper low go south of us. It doesn't need to close off, it just needs to come close to closing off and we could have a good chance of snow on Saturday.  But, as I said this hasn't happened this season.....yet.

And, I agree with you. The calmer period may not be so calm with all of the Arctic air near by.  It would be nice to have an Alberta Clipper actually dig in and get us.  I will be analyzing the LRC very closely the next couple of days and I will be writing something big on what I see and find soon.

Gary

P.S.: Jeremey if you are reading today thanks so much for the comments yesterday!! I am glad you are safe and sound in Wisconsin!! Bring some that snow back for me!!! LOL Have a great Holiday with your family Jeremy!!!

Good Morning Everyone, Merry Christmas Eve......It is Snow covered and still snowing North of Leavenworth, with the snow we had left on the ground, we are definately having a White Christmas and it is just perfect!!!
Bill, again, your entry is perfect, you have such an open and honest, not to mention refreshing perspective on ever weather event, and always leaving me feeling no matter what weather we did or didn't get, we should be thankful for it.
I hope as Andrew said yesterday, we all keep in mind what the season is truely about and not get caught up bickering today, appreciate the small snows and the big ones shall come!!!!

I must've had a freak spot, I have about 1" - 1.5" on 63rd Street just off Shawnee Mission Parkway, probably drifting as my car has a thin glaze of ice, and a minor dusting...

H.

Hey Gary, thanks, as always, for being right on with the forecast for this snow!  It looks like I'll get to go to work today afterall -- although I'll be waiting a bit to leave.

My question is about Saturday: My daughter and I want to head to Lincoln, NE for our family Christmas, leaving Friday late morning and returning to KC sometime on Sunday.  Even though something is expected Saturday, does it look like we'll be fine if we dont travel Saturday?

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It looks like Saturday is the only potential problem day for travel so you should be fine!

Merry Christmas!

Gary

Yeah! Only a dusting of snow in La Cygne.... with the usual gusty winds.

Guess it's time to head out to clean stalls and feed the horses - gonna make a dash from the house to the barn and try to avoid the wind. :)

Merry Christmas to you, too, Gary!  Thanks!!

I'm in Tetonia, Idaho right now. We just received 15" of snow in the last 2 days and are forecasted to get 6"-12" tonight. Then more snow Friday - Sunday. My wife's parents have a log home out here at about 6300 feet and it is a snow lovers paradise. They have about 24 inches on the ground now and could have 3 feet by tomorrow. I'm so glad I'm here and not in KC right now.

I would really appreciate anyone in Independence or Blue Springs blogging some snowfall reports. I have a snow removal business and I need to know what to do for certain customers based off of amounts. Thanks in advance.

Looking out the window I'd say we have maybe 1/2 an inch to an inch here on the ground in Mission. But, hey, at least it is enough to make for a white Christmas! Now looking forward to seeing what Saturday could possibly bring us.

This is boring, at least its going to be a white beginning to christmas. We're going to do "In The Dark" at Union Station on Friday. About an inch of snow feel.

dpollard,
I just got back from Blue Springs (N of the 70) and there is just enough snow to make driving interesting. Not really enough to plow, just enough to make it look pretty. I don't think that Blue Springs got an inch of snow. Based on what I saw in my own driveway though, it appears that when the snow came it was windy, so there appears to be very small snow drifts. Side roads are slippery. Hope this helps.

Juba,
What's "In the Dark"?

1.5" of new snow near Barry Rd & N. Oak

1.5 in Liberty...just enough to make it look like Christmas should.

We kind of got the best of both worlds . . . a little bit of snow for a white Christmas, but not too much so traveling would be hazardous. Merry Christmas!

Gary,

Sorry snowlovers but I for one am glad we did not get a big snowstorm. Everyone I'm hearing and talking to...is already tired of winter and these frigid temps, so I know there are many of us who are on the same page but I know spring is still several months away, so I will have to suck it up and hang in there until then.

I see St Louis got another inch of rain yesterday...don't even know if they've had a accumalting snow yet this winter? They've recieved almost 56 inches of precip this year to set a new yearly record...that is an amazing amount of precip!!! So is that longwave trough still setting up over eastern Missouri or is something else happening with the new LRC that has them still getting lots of precip?

Jeff

Very little snow fell in Grain Valley area, our total for December is at 6.5inches

Sunny skies here at Maple Woods Community College Campus.  
Theory-Gary leaves we get precip.  Now Jeremy leaves and we get precip.  What if we sent them both on a vacation?  Think we would get a blizzard?  Just a thought.  LOL
Merry Christmas to the weather team and all the bloggers.

BTW-I got m y I'm a Weather Dog LRC t-shirt.  Everyone loved it.  

Dialog In The Dark Exibit at Union Station:

http://www.dialog.unionstation.org/

Gary & weather crew,

I would not put to much stock in occasional disappointed blogger!  We drove from Leavenworth County to the Nutcracker downtown last night.  Your prediction was that around 11 pm or so the front would move through northeast of KC.  It was almost like clockwork.  We got home at 10:30 p.m. whithout a bit of a problem (thanks).  When I took the dog out at 11:15 pm, the freezing & ice was starting here in LV, County.  I, like many are very appreciative of the wonderful job you & your team does -- especially in the cold, snowy & often dangerous winter season.  

Can't thank you enough for all the great work!  Please have a Merry Christmas!

MCS, Rural Leavenworth, County  

(p.s. we got about an inch or so of snow and a bit of drifting out in the country)

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Thanks as that was one of the points I made all day, that you could go out and get home before midnight before the front would move through.  Or course an hour earlier for Leavenworth County.  I know our forecast wasn't perfect, but I feel we did a great job at predicting this storm.  I wanted more snow, but I didn't see the upper level disturbance until the 10 PM newscast and made the much lower snowfall forecast which came to fruition.

Merry Christmas!

Gary

N2mountains said:
L R C


Left as you approach Kansas City
Right through northern Mo.
C hit Chicago.

Now that is the storm track, we just needed to think like a storm!
********************************************
f00dl3:

Too true! Although some parts of the metro have seen some snow this winter regardless. Up where I live at I'm now up to 7.05" for the season - and with that being almost done with the first active period of 2 during the winter season, it's still possible - to get 20-25" this winter. We still have JAN/FEB to get through, and MAR can bring snow sometimes as well.

Right now I'm thinking my driveway should see around 16" this winter season.

Now Gary, we don't need any clippers around here. I've seen enough of those to last me a lifetime when I lived up in the U.P.

Again!! I don't think I like this years LRC!! :(

Does anyone have an update on road conditions on K10 from OP to Lawrence?

Can already see the snow line on VS.

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ICT&isingle=single&itype=vis

Merry Christmas Gary! I hope Santa is good to you.

Nice job on the forecast my friend...we eeked out a trace here in Central KS.

JP

I just wanted to share that I got a snow pellet last night!! :o). Not a dusting...a pellet. Oh well....maybe February will be better. It's Christmas....lets celebrate!
Have a wonderful evening and Merry Christmas!
Monica
Pleasanton

Well 7 inches and .5 this morning makes it 7.5 now.  Cold again but not bitter.  Will the snow have a chance of producing a low cloud deck or fog on Friday and keep the tewps down??

As to Fri/Sat morn way To many things need to line up just right for there to be a snow event. . . it will just not happen.

Well December is over 7.5 inches KCI about the same.  It will make 25 inches hard to get to oh well.

To quote grandpa, "every day it does not snow or is not cold is one less day of potential winter weather."  We are down to less than 80 potential winter days. . . every year can't be a 1977-78 or 2007-08.

GOD BLESS  

Juba, funny you should mention that.... i recommend anyone who hasnt been there that they attend.... its really great as it teaches you what it is like to be blind.... Dialog in the Dark was one of the coolest experiences i have ever experienced!

anyways... back to the weather... nice snow line! and I am ready for some real snow.... and how much needs to be on the ground for a white christmas?  

Where is Scott? Scott when could we see our big 5"+ storm?

Kristi -

If you want to see some pictures of some of the chases I can send them to you. Let me know. My email is jules7373@yahoo.com

Julie

49th & Raytown Road had quite a bit of snow this am....enough that people were sliding around on Raytown Road when coming to work this am.  While delivering cheesecakes to 79th & Stateline, son said all was fine there.  We are heading back home (smack in the middle of Kansas) tomorrow morning---just spoke with my mom back home, she said it is quite cold, but they only had a dusting of snow.  Everyone please have a safe travel this holiday weekend.

Gary, I didn't hear the weather this morning on 980.  You said you would sing if it snowed today.  Since it snowed early this morning did you sing?

Why is Brett on the naughty list?

Hey Gary, you guys do a great job. I appreciate you all providing this blog. It's a heck of a lot of fun!

Enjoy some peace and quiet in the weather for the next few days!

Well didn't get a lot of snow last night, but the snow we did get helped to "freshen" the look of the snow that is already on the ground so we are definitely in for a white Christmas here in St. Joe, and it will actually be 2 in a row for us!!
Yea, the storms may be somewhat dysfunctional this year but during the next cycle there will likely be small twists that could give a big one, one thing that I realized about the pattern, while there is a cycle no two cycles are EXACTLY the same, if they were we would have had at LEAST two massive ice storms last winter instead of just one;)!!

Hi Audra,
I have seen the train run along the beach at San Clemente.  Very cool!

Hi Julie,
You may send tme to me at simplykristi@simplykristi.com  I would love to see some pics!

I just shoveled less than an inch of snow from my front walk and drive here in south Raytown.  I also let my next-door neighbor's two dogs (pit bulls - they are friendly) out and they had to run around the yard and check out the snow.  My little dogs hate the snow. LOL

Kristi

Received a dusting in Kingsville which brings the season total to just over 2 inches. Just like last year-getting mostly small snow totals and just  enough ice to cause headaches. Just walking to the mailbox was like a skating rink with the ice in the driveway.

What happened, its 18 degrees and most of the snow is melted, even in the grass!?!?

For snow lovers, we should enjoy what we've gotten.  Saturday could go one way or the other and is looking like more of rain event or better for those near the Ozarks.  After that, there's just nothing showing up at all till after the 1st.
I believe we're lucky to have as much as we've had.  Most of us will have a white Christmas- or at least somewhat.  Not sure where we stand on the LRC, but January looks to be warmer and dry.

It dose not half to be above freezing to melt the snow as long as the sun is out we live far enough south that we get more of the suns warmth and energy to melt the snow than say the northern US gets beacuse are sun angle is higher in the sky

The snow on the sidewalk was starting to melt before I went out and shoveled it.  We are at our lowest sun angle right now.  Where the trucks bladed earlier, the snow has melted.  Watch out for that radiational cooling effect tonight...  Forgot to warn..  There's a very thin layer of ice under the snow...  Be careful!

Kristi

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